关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、贾东旭 联系人| 贾东旭 关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 报告正文 事件：6月27日，央行发布中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第二季度例会全文。 经济形势分析：社会信心持续提振，但仍面临国内需求不足、物价持续低位运行等挑战。 央行对上半年经济表现给予高度评价，指出"我国经济呈现向好态势，社会信心持续提振"。 较一季度例 会"我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进"的表述更显积极，尤其突出社会信心的修复。后续央行或根据经济 形势与预期变化动态调整政策节奏。 风险挑战方面，会议在延续"国内需求不足"判断的同时，新增"物价持续低位运行"的表述。 事实上，一季 度货币政策执行报告已提升对物价的关注度，专栏六分析实体经济供求关系及物价变动，明确提出"价格 调控思路上，也要从以前的管高价转向管低价，从支持规模扩张转向高质量发展，从防垄断转向防无序竞 争。" 货币政策思路：灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏。 关于后续政策操作，会议提出"灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏"，与货币政策执行报告表述一致，预示政 策将更注重执行中的动态响应。 会议将一季度"择机降准降息"，修调整为上述表述，或因当 ...

点评：上半年权益基金发行回暖，显示出市场信心逐步恢复，对相关基金公司业务拓展形成支撑，其股 价表现或受关注。权益基金发行升温对券商、创投等板块的活跃度有所提振，投资者关注度增加。整体 来看，这反映了市场风险偏好有所改善，对股市情绪面产生积极影响，有利于市场资金面改善。 NO.3 上半年公募基金经理人数4041名创新高，较年初增长19% 基金经理人数再创新高，今年上半年，公募基金经理人数达4041名，较年初增长19%，距离2020年初增 长近一倍。行业人才新旧交替常态化，今年以来，全行业有99家公募资管机构有基金经理离任，合计 182人，离任基金经理人数也创下同期新高，其中不乏多名百亿明星基金经理；同时，有107家公募资管 机构新聘275名基金经理，为投研团队补充新生力量。 点评：公募基金经理人数上半年创新高，反映出行业人才流动加速，新旧交替常态化。明星基金经理离 任与新人补充并存，可能引发部分投资者对投研能力变化的关注，进而影响相关公司股价的估值预期。 对于基金行业板块而言，人员结构优化可能带来长期发展动能，但短期内或加剧竞争格局。整体来看， 基金经理数量增加对股市的机构投资者生态产生微妙调整，或促使市场风格 ...

Core Points - The article discusses the significance of "anchor points" and "benchmarks" in investment, particularly focusing on the CSI 300 index for stock investments and the 10-year government bond for bond investments [2][4]. Group 1: Anchor Points in Investment - The CSI 300 index serves as a benchmark for stock investments, indicating whether the market is bullish or bearish based on its annual returns [2]. - The 10-year government bond acts as a key benchmark in the bond market, reflecting market confidence and serving as a critical variable in cross-market asset allocation [2][4]. Group 2: Characteristics of the 10-Year Government Bond - The 10-year government bond is considered a "risk-free rate" due to its high safety, strong liquidity, and stable returns, making it a fundamental pricing anchor for various assets [4]. - It is more representative than shorter or longer-term bonds, balancing yield and volatility effectively [4]. Group 3: Advantages of the 10-Year Government Bond ETF (511260) - The 10-Year Government Bond ETF (511260) offers significant advantages over individual bond purchases, including minimal time costs, ease of operation, and comprehensive liquidity [5][6]. - The ETF allows for T+0 trading, low transaction fees, transparent holdings, and the ability to pledge for repurchase, enhancing investment flexibility [6][7][8]. Group 4: Strategies for Utilizing the 10-Year Government Bond ETF - Investors can engage in swing trading based on interest rate movements or adopt a systematic investment approach through regular contributions [9]. - A "fixed income plus" strategy can be employed, combining the ETF with equity ETFs to achieve a balanced portfolio [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of building a strong technological nation to enhance international competitiveness, with capital markets playing a crucial role in driving the "technology-capital-industry" cycle [1][2]. Group 1: Capital Market's Role - The capital market provides diversified financing channels for technology companies, facilitating their growth from research and development to industrialization [1][2]. - The Science and Technology Innovation Board (STAR Market) has become a preferred listing destination for "hard technology" companies, with 588 companies listed and a total market value of nearly 7 trillion yuan, raising 923.2 billion yuan through IPOs [2]. - Capital markets act as accelerators for the transformation of technological achievements into marketable products, enhancing economic development [2][3]. Group 2: Support for Innovation - A-share listed companies are expected to invest 1.88 trillion yuan in R&D in 2024, accounting for over half of the total social R&D expenditure [3]. - The introduction of a third set of standards on the ChiNext board supports high-quality, unprofitable innovative companies to go public, exemplified by the acceptance of Shenzhen Dapu Microelectronics' application [3]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has implemented reforms to optimize the market environment for innovation, enhancing support for technology-driven development [3][5]. Group 3: Social Impact and Future Directions - The recognition and support from capital markets have stimulated societal enthusiasm for innovation, with successful cases serving as role models for entrepreneurs [4]. - Continuous efforts are needed to enhance the capital market's support for technology companies, ensuring a fair and transparent market environment [5].

Group 1: Market Overview and Valuation - The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) indicates that the current valuation of listed companies in China is relatively low compared to international markets, with the Shanghai Composite Index's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio at 15 times, while the S&P 500 is at 27 times and the Nasdaq at 41 times, highlighting the investment value in Chinese companies [1] - SSE's Vice President Wang Bo emphasizes that the capital market is transitioning towards high-quality development, supported by comprehensive reforms that provide institutional guarantees for the revaluation of listed companies [1][2] - The "three narratives" of policy, technology, and reform are driving the market's revaluation, with policy acting as a guiding force for market expectations [2] Group 2: Policy and Reform Initiatives - The introduction of a package of incremental policies by the Central Committee in September 2022 has significantly improved market expectations and confidence [2] - The SSE plans to implement the "1+6" reform measures under the guidance of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), focusing on enhancing institutional attractiveness and competitiveness [2] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE) is actively planning reforms for the ChiNext board to better support high-quality innovative enterprises and improve financing flexibility [3][4] Group 3: Support for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) - The Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) aims to introduce new measures to assist SMEs in advancing to a "new stage," focusing on maintaining high-quality enterprise supply and optimizing evaluation criteria for innovative SMEs [5][6] - BSE emphasizes strict monitoring and management to enhance company quality and combat various violations, while also supporting mergers and acquisitions as a tool for growth [5][6] - The BSE is promoting the participation of institutional investors in its market, encouraging long-term capital inflow and enhancing support for SMEs [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges are seeking public opinion on adjusting the price fluctuation limit for risk warning stocks on the main board from 5% to 10%, aligning it with other main board stocks, indicating a shift towards more effective risk management in the A-share market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The price fluctuation limit is a defensive measure aimed at reducing market risk, which has historically enhanced public engagement and mitigated speculative trading [1]. - As the capital market matures, the effectiveness of this price limit as a risk mitigation tool has diminished, necessitating an update to better meet the needs of risk identification, pricing, and management [2][3]. Group 2: Trading Freedom and Risk Management - Removing trading restrictions is essential to enhance market participants' ability to express preferences, thereby improving risk identification, pricing, and trading capabilities [3][4]. - Lowering information asymmetry and protecting market autonomy are crucial for fostering a healthy trading environment where risks can be effectively managed [3][4]. Group 3: Market Efficiency - Aligning the fluctuation limits of ST stocks with other main board stocks is expected to invigorate market liquidity and enhance pricing efficiency, ultimately optimizing resource allocation in the capital market [4][5]. - The removal of trading restrictions is viewed as a significant advancement in the governance and capability of the capital market, allowing for better risk absorption and management [5].

本周末影响市场的重要资讯有：国常会听取关于贯彻落实全国科技大会精神加快建设科技强国情况 的汇报；商务部新闻发言人就美与有关国家关税谈判情况答记者问；沪深交易所拟将主板风险警示 股票涨跌幅限制比例调整为10%；标普500指数、纳指均创历史新高；美国与伊朗紧张关系再度升 级，特朗普发出威胁。 宏观经济 国常会：听取关于贯彻落实全国科技大会精神加快建设科技强国情况的汇报 国务院总理李强6月27日主持召开国务院常务会议，听取关于贯彻落实全国科技大会精神加快建设科技 强国情况的汇报，部署健全"高效办成一件事"重点事项常态化推进机制，审议通过《农村公路条例（草 案）》。 央行：探索常态化的制度安排 维护资本市场稳定 中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第二季度（总第109次）例会于6月23日召开。会议指出要引导大型 银行发挥金融服务实体经济主力军作用，推动中小银行聚焦主责主业，支持银行补充资本，共同维护金 融市场的稳定发展。有效落实好各类结构性货币政策工具，扎实做好金融"五篇大文章"，加力支持科技 创新、提振消费，做好"两重""两新"等重点领域的融资支持。用好证券、基金、保险公司互换便利和股 票回购增持再贷款，探索常态化 ...

宏 观 研 究 货币政策 2025 年 06 月 29 日 对地产和物价的关注度提升 ——2025 年二季度货币政策委员会例会解读 事件：6 月 27 日，央行发布中国人民银行货币政策委员会 2025 年第二季度例会全文。 ⚫ 经济形势分析：社会信心持续提振，但仍面临国内需求不足、物价持续低位运行等挑战。 央行对上半年经济表现给予高度评价，指出"我国经济呈现向好态势，社会信心持续提振"。 较一季度例会"我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进"的表述更显积极，尤其突出社会信心 的修复。后续央行或根据经济形势与预期变化动态调整政策节奏。 ⚫ 热点议题：持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势；做好"两重""两新"等重点领域的融资支持。 风险挑战方面，会议在延续"国内需求不足"判断的同时，新增"物价持续低位运行"的 表述。事实上，一季度货币政策执行报告已提升对物价的关注度，专栏六分析实体经济供 求关系及物价变动，明确提出"价格调控思路上，也要从以前的管高价转向管低价，从支 持规模扩张转向高质量发展，从防垄断转向防无序竞争。" ⚫ 货币政策思路：灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏。 关于后续政策操作，会议提出"灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏"，与 ...

变局加速，机遇涌动！走过充满韧性的 2024 ，中国经济正以"新质生产力"为引擎，在 2025 年深化转型。政策红利持续释放，资本市场改革深化，外资加速回流人工智能、高端制造、绿 色能源等新经济赛道，一场以"新质"为核心的估值重构已然展开。 然而，全球棋局波谲云诡：地缘冲突未息、货币政策分化、供应链重塑承压、多国政治周期叠 加 ……如何在百年大变局的深化期，把握未来航向？ 2025 年下半年，机遇与风险并存，投 资者如何优化策略，行稳致远？ 答案，就在深圳！ 2025 年 7 月 4 日 -5 日，格隆汇 2025 中期策略峰会 将再度点亮鹏城！ 与远见者同行，与担当者共进！ 请注意， 7 月 5 日全天的全球机构投资者思享会为收费活动，前排预留席位金额： 6 88/ 人 （早鸟价，原价 1 088/ 人）， 限额前 7 2 位！已无名额 ！ 这是一场智慧碰撞的盛宴，一次拨云见日的集结！ 普通席位 3 88/ 人（早鸟价，原价 688/ 人） 仅剩 20 席，先到先得！ 请联系专属客服购买票！ 我们力邀顶尖思想领袖与实战精英，为您： 深度剖析全球与中国经济核心变局； 前瞻 "新质生产力"驱动的投资主脉络； 拆 ...

6月28日，在2025上市公司论坛上，温州市市长张文杰在致辞时表示，温州近年来深入实施"凤凰行 动"，建立500家左右的上市后备企业资源库。截至去年底，温州A股上市公司累计39家，比2017年增长 近2倍。目前，温州上市公司数量、融资规模和市值与近万亿元GDP规模、近万家规上工业企业数量还 不匹配，还有很大的发展空间。当前，温州正加快做大做强资本市场"温州板块"，更好赋能民营经济发 展。(人民财讯) ...