Economic Outlook - The economic sentiment in the Eurozone improved in September, with the economic sentiment index rising by 1.0 points to 26.1, exceeding market expectations of 20.3 [1] - The current economic situation index also improved by 2.4 points to -28.8, indicating a more favorable outlook [1] - Approximately 51.7% of surveyed analysts expect stable economic activity, while 37.2% anticipate improvement, and 11.1% foresee deterioration [1] Labor Costs - Eurozone hourly labor costs increased by 3.6% year-on-year in Q2, slightly below the preliminary estimate of 3.7% but higher than the revised 3.4% in Q1 [1] - Wage growth was recorded at 3.7% in Q2, up from 3.5% in Q1, while non-wage costs grew by 3.4%, compared to the previous 3.2% [1] - Labor costs in the business economy sector rose by 4.0%, with construction leading at 4.7%, followed by services at 4.3%, and industry at 3.3% [1] Industrial Production - Eurozone industrial production increased by 0.3% month-on-month in July, reversing a previous decline of 0.6% and aligning with market expectations [2] - Year-on-year, industrial production grew by 1.8%, significantly faster than the 0.7% growth in June [2] - Notable increases were seen in capital goods production, which rebounded by 1.3%, durable consumer goods by 1.1%, and non-durable consumer goods by 1.5% [2] Economic Dynamics - The data indicates a recovery in economic momentum within the Eurozone, although persistently high labor costs may support inflation [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market is awaiting the Fed's decision, with Trump continuing to apply pressure, leading to higher gold and silver prices. The US three major stock indexes closed higher, European three major stock indexes mostly rose, US Treasury yields fell, the US dollar index declined, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. With the approaching September Fed meeting, gold prices strengthened again before the meeting, and silver prices followed gold prices, with the sentiment remaining strong [4][5]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with inflation expectations shifting to economic recession expectations. Gold prices are difficult to fall, and silver prices mainly follow gold prices. There are still risks of increased gains in silver prices due to tariff concerns [9][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The market awaited the Fed's decision, with Trump continuing to apply pressure, causing gold prices to rise. The US three major stock indexes closed higher, European three major stock indexes mostly rose, US Treasury yields fell, the US dollar index declined, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures rose 0.90% to $3719.50 per ounce. The basis was -3.88, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 2799 kilograms to 52950 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the main long positions decreased [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the market awaited the Fed's decision, with Trump continuing to apply pressure, leading to higher silver prices. COMEX silver futures rose 0.84% to $43.19 per ounce. The basis was -25, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 6382 kilograms to 1246569 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the main long positions decreased [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with inflation expectations shifting to economic recession expectations, making it difficult for gold prices to fall. The verification between the expectations and the reality of the US new government's policies will continue, and the sentiment for gold prices is high, remaining prone to rise and difficult to fall [9]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. There are stronger tariff concerns for silver prices, and there is a risk of increased gains. The global situation is turbulent, with the resurgence of risk - aversion sentiment, the shadow Fed is significant, the expectation of interest rate cuts has risen again, the situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East are tense, inflation has resurfaced, and tariff concerns have an impact [12]. 3. Today's Focus - 07:50: Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor for Economic Affairs at the Reserve Bank of Australia, participates in a fireside chat during the 2025 AFIA Conference in Sydney. - Time TBD: The 2025 Tencent Global Digital Ecosystem Conference, the 2025 World Energy Storage Conference in Ningde, Fujian, and the 2025 BRICS New Industrial Revolution Partnership Forum are held. - 14:00: UK July three - month ILO employment figures and unemployment rate are released. - 14:30: Bank of Thailand Governor Sethaput Suthiwart - Narueput holds a briefing on the economy and monetary policy. - 15:00: European Central Bank Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus presents the economic outlook report for Lithuania. - Time TBD: US President Trump visits the UK, possibly lasting until September 18, accompanied by executives from companies such as Nvidia, OpenAI, and BlackRock. - 16:00: European Central Bank Governing Council member Jose Luis Escriva speaks in Madrid, Spain. - 17:00: Germany's September ZEW economic sentiment index is released. - 19:00: The Bank of Spain releases a new economic outlook report. - 20:30: US August retail sales, August import and export price indexes, and Canada's August CPI are released. - Time TBD: The two - day FOMC monetary policy meeting of the Fed begins. - 21:15: US August industrial production data is released. - 22:00: US September NAHB housing market index and July business inventory data are released [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold and Silver Price Movements**: The report shows the price movements of various gold and silver products, including Shanghai gold and silver futures, COMEX gold and silver futures, SGE gold and silver T + D, London gold and silver spot prices, and the US dollar index [15]. - **US Treasury Yields**: US Treasury yields fell collectively, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropping 3.64 basis points to 4.034% [4][5][25]. - **ETF Holdings**: SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased, and silver ETF holdings continued to decrease but were higher than the same period in the past two years [33][36]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: COMEX gold warehouse receipts increased slightly and remained at a high level, while Shanghai gold warehouse receipts remained flat. Shanghai silver warehouse receipts decreased slightly but were higher than the same period last year, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts continued to increase, with renewed tariff concerns [37][39]. 5. Position Data - **Shanghai Gold Top 20 Positions**: As of September 15, 2025, the long positions were 250,048, a decrease of 1,099 (-0.44%) compared to September 14; the short positions were 85,595, an increase of 1,315 (1.56%); the net positions were 164,453, a decrease of 2,414 (-1.45%) [30]. - **Shanghai Silver Top 20 Positions**: As of September 15, 2025, the long positions were 375,292, a decrease of 10,769 (-2.79%) compared to September 12; the short positions were 279,860, a decrease of 5,297 (-1.86%); the net positions were 95,432, a decrease of 5,472 (-5.42%) [31].

Group 1: Economic Overview - US consumer confidence has reached its lowest level since May, with a preliminary index of 55.4 for September, down 4.8% from August and down 21% year-on-year [1][4] - The current economic conditions index for September is 61.2, a decrease of 0.8% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, while the consumer expectations index is at 51.8, down 7.3% month-on-month and 30.4% year-on-year [1][4] - Domestic economic conditions in China remain stable, with industrial production growing by 5.2% year-on-year in August [2] Group 2: Copper Market Analysis - There has been a continuous inflow of imported copper, but expectations for domestic copper supply are decreasing, leading to a build-up in electrolytic copper inventories [1][4] - As of September 15, the SMM national mainstream copper inventory increased by 0.99 million tons to 15.42 million tons, with inventory rising in regions outside Shanghai [3] - The average price for SMM 1 electrolytic copper is reported between 80,780 and 81,100 yuan per ton, with a slight decrease in the premium over the previous trading day [3][5] Group 3: Aluminum Market Analysis - The supply of aluminum has seen a slight increase, while terminal consumption is recovering; however, high aluminum prices are suppressing downstream consumption [1][4] - As of September 15, the domestic mainstream consumption area for electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory is 63.7 million tons, an increase of 1.2 million tons from the previous week [3][6] - The price for SMM A00 aluminum is reported at 20,950 yuan per ton, down 70 yuan from the previous trading day [3][6]

Group 1 - The core driving factors for the rise in gold prices during a rate cut cycle are multifaceted, involving economic, financial, and market psychology dimensions [2] - The decline in real interest rates is a key driver for gold valuation, as lower nominal rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is a non-yielding asset [3][4] - The classic cost of carry model indicates that gold prices have an inverse relationship with real interest rates, leading to increased marginal demand for gold when real rates fall below a certain threshold [3] Group 2 - The weakening of the dollar's credit during a rate cut cycle typically results in a depreciating dollar index, which directly boosts gold prices due to the pricing effect [4][5] - Emerging market central banks may diversify their reserves by increasing gold holdings to reduce the proportion of USD in their foreign exchange reserves, reflecting a trend of "de-dollarization" [6] Group 3 - Market behavior is reinforced by both speculative and hedging demands, with hedge funds often positioning for long positions in gold futures ahead of rate cut expectations [7] - Increased volatility can trigger algorithmic buying strategies, further driving up gold prices [8] - Concerns about economic downturns lead to preemptive hedging in gold allocations, as rate cuts are often seen as a response to potential recessions [9] Group 4 - The long-term structural support for gold is influenced by financial repression effects, where low interest rates may lead to government debt expansion and concerns about currency devaluation [11] - The global scale of negative yield bonds has surpassed $18 trillion, enhancing the relative attractiveness of gold as a zero-yield asset [12] Group 5 - Historical data shows that in six rate cut cycles since 1970, gold prices have increased by 12%-35% in five instances, with the exception being during the 2007 financial crisis when liquidity issues led to asset sell-offs [13]

美国：通胀回升，就业市场走弱 ——海外经济政策跟踪 本报告导读： 高频数据显示美国 8 月核心 CPI 回升，但就业市场仍在走弱，预计 9 月美联储会如 期降息，对于后续降息节奏，需重点关注关税对通胀的影响，以及就业市场是否能 在减税落地后有所回温。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 全球大类资产表现。本周（2025.9.5-2025.9.12），大宗商品价格普遍 上涨，其中，IPE 布油期货上涨 1.8%，伦敦金现上涨 1.6%，COMEX 铜上涨 1.4%，标普-高盛商品指数上涨 1.3%。 主要经济体股市普遍 上涨，日经 225 上涨 4.1%，恒生指数上涨 3.8%，标普 500 上涨 1.6%， 上证综指上涨 1.5%，新兴市场股票指数涨幅（3.5%）高于发达市场 股票指数涨幅（1.5%）。债市方面，10 年期美债收益率较前一周小 幅回落至 4.06%，国内 10Y 国债期货价格下跌 0.2%，中债总全价指 数下跌 0.4%。外汇市场方面，美元指数较前一周回落，报收 97.62， 人民币兑美元升值 0.2%，日元兑美元贬值 0.2%。 经济：美国方面：9 月市场交易层面 5 年与 10 年 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is likely to initiate its first rate cut of the year next week, with expectations of further reductions throughout 2024. However, the real challenge will arise in 2026 due to a shift towards expansionary fiscal policy, a dovish new chair, and AI-driven productivity gains potentially reviving inflation expectations and asset bubbles [2] - The labor market is expected to soften, with indicators showing a rise in unemployment, a decrease in job vacancies, and a cooling turnover rate. This will prompt the Fed to adjust policy rates towards a neutral level of approximately 3% [3] - As the policy rate approaches 3%, the Fed will face multiple challenges, including potential fiscal expansion regardless of election outcomes, which may lead to increased deficits and fiscal stimulus by 2026 [4] Group 2 - The market has priced in a dovish outlook for a potential new chair, with expectations for terminal rates significantly lower than historical averages and a reduced likelihood of rate hikes [5] - The potential for AI to enhance productivity has raised the estimated GDP growth rate to 2.25%, with further increases possible as AI applications become more widespread [6] - Financial conditions have already loosened, with the financial conditions index in the U.S. having declined by 75 basis points since June, indicating that the market has effectively absorbed some of the Fed's easing [6] Group 3 - High inflation expectations may lead to a resurgence in economic growth without a recession by 2026, benefiting real assets such as commodities, real estate, and infrastructure, as well as Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) [7] - The stock market may continue to benefit from loose liquidity, but its high valuations make it more sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, potentially increasing volatility [7] Group 4 - Investors are advised to increase allocations to real assets and short-duration inflation-linked bonds to hedge against rising inflation premiums [8] - Attention should be given to sectors that directly benefit from fiscal stimulus, including green infrastructure, traditional energy, defense, and AI computing hardware [8] - A tactical approach is recommended for long-duration growth stocks, avoiding excessive chasing after rates drop to 3% [9] - Option strategies may be employed to hedge against potential volatility arising from a dovish chair and fiscal expansion [9] Group 5 - In the early stages of the rate-cutting cycle, the market can follow the Fed's easing pace. However, as rates approach neutral levels, new variables in fiscal policy, technology, and political appointments will complicate the Fed's decision-making process [10] - Identifying and positioning in real assets and inflation protection tools may be crucial for navigating the complexities ahead [10]

Inflation Data - The U.S. August CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, matching expectations, and up from 2.7% previously[3] - The August CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month, compared to a 0.2% increase last month[3] - Core CPI for August also grew by 3.1% year-on-year, in line with expectations, and unchanged from the previous month[3] Market Expectations - Market anticipates three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, with a 99% probability of at least two cuts and an 83% probability of three cuts following the data release[8] - The probability of a September rate cut is nearly 100%, with a 9.2% chance of a 50 basis point cut after the data release[8] Market Reactions - Following the CPI data release, U.S. Treasury yields slightly declined, with the 3-month yield down by 1 basis point, the 2-year yield down by 2 basis points, and the 10-year yield down by 3 basis points[9] - Major U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up by 1.36%, S&P 500 up by 0.85%, and Nasdaq up by 0.72%[9] Inflation Components - Core goods inflation continued to rise, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 1.5%[6] - Used car inflation rose by 6% year-on-year and 1% month-on-month, indicating a continued upward trend[7] Economic Outlook - Long-term inflation expectations remain stable, with a slight increase in short-term expectations, as the Michigan survey indicated a rise to 4.8% in August from 4.5% in July[21] - The Federal Reserve's inflation outlook suggests a moderate inflationary environment, with tariff impacts beginning to show[46]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs warns that the upcoming interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve is relatively straightforward this year, but may face complexities in 2026 due to loose financial conditions, fiscal stimulus, and AI-related risks [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate its first interest rate cut next week and continue to lower rates until the end of the year [3]. - Goldman Sachs believes that the current U.S. labor market is softening, with indicators such as unemployment rate and job vacancies showing a downward trend [4]. - Despite uncertainties in actual employment growth, the unemployment rate has already increased, prompting the Fed to normalize policy rates closer to neutral levels [4]. Group 2: Inflation and Asset Prices - As the policy rate approaches 3%, the Fed will face more complex decisions, especially if the labor market does not deteriorate sharply [5]. - The market is pricing in a dovish premium for the terminal rate during Trump's term, reflecting a lower probability of rate hikes [5]. - Since early June, the U.S. financial conditions index has eased by 75 basis points, with the stock market being the largest contributor [6]. Group 3: Economic Growth and AI Impact - Potential GDP is expanding at approximately 2.25%, with strong productivity growth offsetting negative impacts from reduced immigration [6]. - Goldman Sachs anticipates that as the effects of high tariffs diminish and fiscal policy becomes more expansionary, the U.S. economy will gradually accelerate back to potential growth levels by 2026 [6]. - The key question remains how much AI technology can elevate this growth figure [6].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate its first interest rate cut of the year next week, with a continued easing expected through the end of the year [1] - Goldman Sachs warns that while the upcoming rate cut cycle may be straightforward this year, complexities may arise in 2026 due to factors such as a shift to loose fiscal policy, dovish tendencies of the new Fed chair, and productivity gains driven by AI [1][3] Group 2 - The U.S. labor market is currently showing signs of softening, with a composite indicator reflecting unemployment rates, job vacancies, turnover rates, and survey data indicating a potential decline after a brief stabilization in late 2024/early 2025 [2] - Despite uncertainties in actual employment growth, the unemployment rate has already increased, prompting the Fed to normalize policy rates closer to neutral levels [2] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that inflation in labor-intensive sectors will gradually decline due to a weak labor market suppressing wage growth, even as core PCE may temporarily rise to 3.2% due to tariff impacts [2] Group 3 - As policy rates approach 3%, the Fed's decision-making will become more complex, with multiple intersecting factors at play unless there is a sharp deterioration in the labor market or signs of recession [3] - The financial conditions index in the U.S. has eased by 75 basis points since early June, with the stock market being the largest contributor [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the U.S. economy will gradually re-accelerate to potential growth levels by 2026, supported by reduced tariff drag and a shift to more expansionary fiscal policy, with AI technology playing a crucial role in determining growth levels [3]

Group 1 - The report from Northeast Securities analyzes the causes of the 1970s gold bull market and draws parallels to the current market conditions, highlighting the loosening of fiscal and monetary discipline in the U.S. as a key factor [1][2][24] - The 1970s gold bull market unfolded in five stages, starting with a prelude in 1968-1969, followed by a first surge from 1970-1974, a pause in 1975-1976, a second surge from 1977-1979, and concluding with the market's end in 1980 [1][24] - The report suggests that if U.S. fiscal and monetary expansion leads to renewed inflation, and if the Federal Reserve lacks the courage to raise interest rates, it could trigger a new gold bull market [2][24] Group 2 - Current similarities with the 1970s include high fiscal deficits and debt levels, as well as potential challenges to the independence of the Federal Reserve, which could lead to an upward pressure on gold prices [2][24] - The report notes that the current gold buying landscape is more diversified, with significant participation from emerging market central banks and strong demand from Asian investors, contrasting with the more limited involvement of Western investors [2][26] - The development of AI could impact the long-term value of gold; if AI progresses slowly, traditional fiscal and monetary stimulus methods may continue to support gold's value [30]