新加坡金融管理局（MAS）周四表示，将维持其政策区间的斜率、宽度和中心位置不变。 新加坡金融管理局每年进行四次政策评估，在2025年曾两次放松货币政策——分别在1月和4月——以支 持经济增长，然后在去年剩余时间里保持不变，因为这个依赖贸易的国家在很大程度上免受特朗普关税 攻势的影响。 新华财经北京1月29日电新加坡连续第三次维持货币政策不变，同时上调了通胀预期，暗示其下一步可 能是收紧货币政策。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

美债收益率曲线连续第二个交易日走陡，主要受美元走弱和原油价格走强推动，这两者均提振了通胀预 期。2Y/10Y美债收益率利差一度扩大至67.6个基点，高于周二尾盘的66.6个基点。收益率曲线呈现出典 型的"熊市陡峭化"特征，即在投资者计入通胀重新加速风险上升的情况下，长期收益率的上升速度快于 短期。法巴银行美国利率策略主管古尼特·丁格拉表示："美元走弱时期通常会看到长端对通胀风险更加 敏感。因此，通常情况下，美元和美债这两者往往成为货币政策与财政政策组合的'压力释放阀'。如果 财政与货币政策的组合暗示美元将继续走弱，那么我认为长端收益率上行算是符合教科书式的反应。" 来源:金融界AI电报 ...

2026.01. 28 本文字数：2064，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 潘寅茹 日本政坛又一次进入"选举周期"。 27日在东京都的秋叶原站，高市与维新会党首吉村洋文等人拉票演说。高市强调，现在是经济和财政政策重大转变的时刻。吉村则扮演辅助角色，称维 新会将发挥"加速器"的作用，全力支持高市。也有华人在涩谷车站附近看到了极右翼的参政党党首神谷宗币在街头演说，并告诉第一财经，"感觉内容还 是主要以情绪调动为主，现场也没有特别多的听众驻留。" 据新华社报道，日本第51届众议院选举公告于27日发布，投票和计票将于2月8日举行， 为期12天的选战正式拉开帷幕。此次选举将围绕465个议席展开 角逐，其中包括289个小选举区议席和176个比例代表选区议席。 据媒体统计数据显示，此次有超过1200位候选人计划参选。日本首相高市早苗27日重申，如果执政联盟（自民党与维新会）无法获得过半数席位，自己 将辞去首相职务。 日媒统计显示，在超1200名候选人中，高市所在的自民党将推举285名候选人，在野党方面，由立宪民主党与公明党最新组建的中道改革联盟将推举202 名候选人，极右翼的参政党紧随其后，力推178名候选人。 由 ...

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP is projected to grow by 5% year-on-year, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan, with a fourth-quarter growth of 4.5% [1][19] - The industrial added value for large-scale industries is expected to increase by 5.9%, maintaining China's position as the world's largest manufacturing sector [1][19] - The service sector's added value is anticipated to grow by 5.4%, raising its share of GDP to 57.7% [1][19] - Retail sales of consumer goods are projected to grow by 3.7%, with final consumption contributing 52% to economic growth [1][19] - Fixed asset investment is expected to decline by 3.8%, with real estate development investment decreasing by 17.2% [1][19] - By the end of 2025, the national population is estimated to be 1.40489 billion, with a net decrease of 3.39 million people [1][19] Monetary Policy - The one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is set at 3.00%, and the five-year LPR is at 3.50%, both unchanged from the previous month [1][19] - This marks the eighth consecutive month of stability in LPR rates following a reduction of 10 basis points in May 2025 [1][19] Market Performance Futures Market - ICE Brent crude oil rose by 2.94% to $65.44, while COMEX gold increased by 8.44% to $4,983.1 [21][22] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 186.38 basis points, leading to a significant appreciation of the Chinese yuan by 187 basis points [22] Stock Market - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 1.54%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.34% [23][24] - The CSI 500 Index saw an increase of 4.34%, indicating a strong sentiment in the domestic market [24] Bond Market - Short-term credit bonds saw an increase, while long-term bonds experienced a decline, with the 10-year national development bond dropping by 4 basis points [29] - The overall bond rates are expected to fluctuate downwards due to significant net injections from MLF operations amid weakening economic data [29] International Relations - The Greenland crisis has seen a turnaround, with U.S. President Trump announcing a framework agreement with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, which could benefit the U.S. and NATO members [2][20] - The announcement led to a rise in U.S. stock indices, with all three major indices increasing by over 1% [20] Investment Outlook - The recent economic data indicates a potential rebound in China's economy, supported by relaxed real estate policies and increased birth subsidies [32] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Greenland, may impact asset prices and macroeconomic conditions [32]

Market Overview and Analysis - The issuance scale of government bonds, local bonds, and policy financial bonds in the primary market last week was 515 billion, 231.6 billion, and 187.5 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of 344.3 billion, 203.2 billion, and 187.5 billion [1][8] - The total issuance scale of non-financial credit bonds was 322.6 billion, with a net financing amount of 151.9 billion. Two new convertible bonds were issued, with an expected financing scale of 2.9 billion [1][8] Secondary Market Review - Interest rates generally declined last week, with long-term bonds and public bonds performing well. Key influencing factors included strong bond allocation demand, increased central bank injections, and stock market fluctuations [2][9] Liquidity Tracking - The net injection in the open market last week was 229.5 billion, with the central bank conducting an excess of 700 billion in MLF, and 150 billion in treasury cash deposits maturing, indicating a relaxed funding environment [3][10] Policy and Fundamentals - The Ministry of Finance stated that the overall fiscal expenditure in 2026 will "only increase, not decrease." The central bank indicated that there is still room for rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions this year. The actual GDP growth for Q4 2025 is projected at 4.5%, with an annual growth of 5% [4][11] Overseas Market - Disputes arose between the US and Europe over Greenland, coupled with Japan's government preparing for fiscal expansion by dissolving the House of Representatives. US and Japanese long-term bond yields rose significantly, while the dollar index fell by 1.9% over the week, and precious metals surged [5][12] Equity Market - The A-share market continued to rise last week, with the total A-share index increasing by 1.81%. The CSI 500 saw a significant rise of 4.34%, while the CSI 300 and SSE 50 fell by 0.62% and 1.54% respectively. The construction, chemical, and real estate sectors led the gains, while communication and banking sectors lagged [6][13] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - The recent recovery in the bond market is essentially a correction of previous overly pessimistic sentiments. However, the urgency for total easing policies remains to be observed as structural policies are gradually implemented. The continuous rise in commodity prices makes short-term inflation expectations difficult to dismiss [7][14] - Attention should be paid to policy signals released during local two sessions and the demand for allocation following the increase in local bond issuance next week. The overall outlook on whether the interest rate center can break downward still requires more confirmation signals [7][14]

（文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京1月27日电中国外汇投资研究院金融分析师张正阳表示，从目前看，日本央行的理想路径 是将政策利率稳步提升至对经济既无刺激亦无抑制作用的中性利率水平。然而，中性利率本身是一个无 法精确观测的理论概念，对日本而言，人口老龄化、潜在增长率低迷都是潜在难题，加息节奏将极度依 赖数据。日本央行承诺会谨慎推进，任何一项数据疲软都可能导致加息暂停。 短期看，加息通过抑制日元贬值，有助于缓解输入性通胀，为物价稳定创造外部条件。但长期而言，物 价的真正稳定，依赖于薪资与物价形成可持续的良性循环以及企业生产率的提升。加息只是为这一循环 创造一个汇率不过度扭曲、通胀预期稳定的宏观环境。若加息过程操之过急，扼杀了内需复苏，可能导 致经济再度陷入停滞。从当下视角评估，未来加息或出现在2026下半年。 ...

数据显示，土耳其去年12月通胀率降至30.9%，当月环比涨幅为0.9%，明显低于市场预期。不过，在前不久举行的货币政策会上，央行仅将政策利率下调 100个基点，低于市场预期的150个基点，并表示初步数据表明1月仍存在一定通胀压力。 根据中期经济计划，土耳其政府目标是在2026年底将总体通胀率降至19%。财政部长穆罕默德·希姆谢克近日重申了这一目标。 编辑：王姝睿 新华财经伊斯坦布尔1月27日电（记者 许万虎）土耳其央行最新统计数据显示，1月土耳其市场参与者和实体部门通胀预期明显下调，反映出对通胀回落 趋势的信心增强，但通胀预期在不同部门间出现分化调整。 具体来看，市场参与者对未来12个月通胀率的预测较上月下调1.15个百分点至22.2%；实体部门将其预期下调1.9个百分点至32.9%。相比之下，居民部门 将未来12个月通胀预期上调1.18个百分点至52.08%，显示尽管整体通胀回落，生活成本压力仍令居民担忧。 土耳其当地券商指南针投资公司指出，通胀动能的主观感受持续走弱，价格压力正在减轻。该机构认为，市场预期趋同正在强化这一变化，年末CPI预期 正逐步向22%附近收敛，相关数据对风险资产略偏积极。 ...

Group 1 - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a holding of 1,086.53 tons of gold as of January 26, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - As of January 26, the spot gold price closed at $5,110.25 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.47%, reaching a high of $5,110.25 and a low of $4,989.15 during the day [1] Group 2 - In January, U.S. business activity remained stable, with new orders improving, but concerns over a weak labor market and rising costs due to tariffs offset this [3] - The preliminary composite PMI for the U.S. in January was reported at 52.8, with service and manufacturing PMIs showing little change [3] - The new orders sub-index rose to 52.2, while exports fell to a nine-month low [3] - The output price index decreased to 57.2 in January but remains within a high range seen over the past three years [3] - The input price index fell to 59.7, still at a high level [3] - The final consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for January increased to 56.4, with one-year inflation expectations dropping to 4.0%, the lowest since January 2025 [3] - Five-year inflation expectations were reported at 3.3%, a decrease from the preliminary value but higher than December's 3.2% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report aims to systematically construct an analytical framework for the issuance and pricing of ultra - long bonds, and comprehensively analyzes the historical evolution and theoretical framework of overseas ultra - long bonds. It first reviews the history and motives of the US, Japan, and Germany in issuing ultra - long bonds, then analyzes the supply and demand sides, introduces the Bernanke three - factor pricing model to attribute the yield fluctuations of ultra - long bonds, and finally summarizes historical experience through the review of recent yield changes [4][7][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Government's Motivation for Issuing Ultra - long Bonds - **Origin of Ultra - long Bonds**: In 1953, the US Treasury issued the first ultra - long bond to reduce the cost of frequent short - term bond issuance; in 1986, Germany issued its first ultra - long bond to extend debt duration and reduce refinancing risk; in 1999, Japan included 30 - year treasury bonds in its issuance system to diversify the bond market's maturity structure [21]. - **Motives for Issuing Ultra - long Bonds**: Overseas countries issue ultra - long bonds mainly to raise funds for structural fiscal expansion, optimize the debt structure, and meet the market demand for long - term safe assets. For example, after 2008, the US increased 30 - year bond issuance with the expansion of fiscal deficits, and Japan used ultra - long bonds to support the economy in a deflationary environment [24]. 3.2 Historical Review of Ultra - long Bond Development - **US**: The development of US ultra - long bonds follows the logic of "crisis - driven + policy linkage". During economic crises, the government increases issuance to supplement fiscal funds, and the Fed lowers interest rates and buys bonds to support the market. Yield trends are closely related to issuance scale [30]. - **Japan**: The development of Japanese ultra - long bonds is a win - win for finance and currency. It helps the government finance and reduces long - term costs, and is also a tool for the central bank to control the yield curve. Issuance scale increases during crises with central bank easing [34]. - **Germany**: German ultra - long bonds show a dynamic evolution of "demand - anchored, cycle - adapted, and function - expanded". Initially for debt maturity structure optimization, they later meet long - term expenditure needs and expand functions such as being an interest - rate benchmark and a safe - haven asset [37]. 3.3 Ultra - long Bond Pricing: Supply and Demand - **Supply Side**: Taking the US as an example, Congress confirms the fiscal budget and debt ceiling in advance, and the Treasury formulates a specific issuance plan. The issuance form includes new issuance and additional issuance. The issuance mechanism in the US, Germany, and Japan varies. The US uses a "single - price (Dutch)" auction, while Germany and Japan use a "multiple - price" auction. The proportion of long - term bond issuance is mainly determined by financing costs, term premiums, and debt management strategies [41][49][50]. - **Demand Side**: The demand for ultra - long bonds comes from three aspects. Pension funds and insurance companies have rigid asset - liability management needs; hedge funds, banks, and asset management institutions have trading and arbitrage needs; central banks buy and sell ultra - long bonds for unconventional monetary policies and financial stability. Currently, the demand for US ultra - long bonds is more diversified, with investment funds becoming the largest demanders, and the proportion of primary dealers' allocation decreasing [54][61]. 3.4 Ultra - long Bond Pricing - **Bernanke Three - factor Model**: The long - term interest rate is decomposed into inflation expectations, the expected path of short - term real interest rates, and term premiums [70]. - **Inflation Expectations**: Long - term inflation expectations fluctuate around the 2% inflation target and are affected by economic growth. When the economy grows strongly, inflation expectations rise [74][76]. - **Expected Real Short - term Interest Rates**: The short - term real interest rate is mainly determined by the benchmark interest rate. The Fed's benchmark interest rate decision considers inflation and the employment market [79]. - **Term Premiums**: In recent years, the impact of term premiums on long - term bond yields has increased. It includes factors such as liquidity premiums, credit risk premiums, growth premiums, and inflation volatility premiums. Central bank quantitative easing policies can suppress term premiums, and credit risk premiums were significant during the European debt crisis, while fiscal expansion can increase growth risk premiums [81][85][87]. 3.5 Recent Trends and Future Forecasts - **Current Trends**: In the context of the global "big fiscal" era, concerns about the debt sustainability of developed economies have led to a re - evaluation of term premiums, causing the yields of US, Japanese, and German ultra - long bonds to rise. For the US, expansionary fiscal policies and a weakened US dollar have increased term premiums; for Japan, the central bank's policy adjustment and fiscal deterioration have led to a rise in yields; for Germany, fiscal expansion has pushed up yields [91][93][95]. - **Future Forecasts**: Unless developed economies abandon the "debt - driven" development model and improve long - term productivity, overseas ultra - long bond yields may continue to rise. It is expected that by the end of 2026, the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year US Treasury bonds may reach around 4.6% and 5.1% respectively [97].

Group 1: Emerging Markets and ETFs - Emerging market ETFs saw inflows of $68.3 billion in the week ending January 23, slightly down from $71.3 billion the previous week, with a total inflow of $184 billion year-to-date [1][7] - Equity ETFs contributed $66.7 billion, while bond ETFs attracted $15.8 billion, increasing total assets from $460.4 billion to $473.7 billion [1][7] - Chinese assets were particularly favored, with a weekly inflow of $16.5 billion, making iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF the largest beneficiary [1][7] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer at BlackRock, has seen his chances of becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair rise from 6% to 49%, now the leading candidate [1][7] - The probability of a U.S. government shutdown by the end of January has surged to nearly 80%, up from less than 10% the previous week, if funding legislation is not passed [2][7] Group 3: Inflation and Economic Forecasts - Brazil's central bank has slightly lowered the inflation forecast for 2026 from 4.02% to 4%, with stable predictions for the following years [2][8] - The U.S. durable goods orders for November 2025 increased by 5.3%, the largest growth in six months, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 3.7% [2][9]