重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年12月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：英国CPI后央行年内降息预期升温，美元反弹，金价继续走高；美国三 大股指全线收跌，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率涨跌不一，10年期美债 收益率涨1.36个基点报4.153%；美元指数涨0.18%报98.40，离岸人民币对美元小幅 贬值报7.0399；COMEX黄金期货涨0.90%报4371.40美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货979.72，现货973.79，基差-5.93，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单91302千克，增加3千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The survey indicates that CFOs in the U.S. expect a significant price increase of 4.2% by 2026, which challenges the Federal Reserve's prediction of inflation returning to around 2% [1][3][4] Group 1: Inflation Expectations - CFOs anticipate a price increase of 4.2% by 2026, with half of the surveyed companies expecting a rise of 3.5% or more [4] - The current inflation level is nearly 1 percentage point above the Federal Reserve's target, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures [3][4] Group 2: Concerns Over Tariffs and Costs - Tariffs and trade policies remain the top concern for CFOs, despite a slight easing of anxiety compared to earlier in the year [5][6] - CFOs expect unit costs to rise slightly more than prices, indicating that a 4.2% price increase may only barely cover rising costs [6] Group 3: Business Confidence and Economic Growth - Business optimism has declined, with the U.S. economic optimism index dropping from 62.9 to 60.2 [7] - Companies predict a modest employment increase of 1.7% and an economic growth rate of approximately 1.9% for 2026 [7] - Less than half of the companies are hiring new positions, with about 20% having no hiring plans and around 9% expecting layoffs [8]

Core Insights - CFOs in the U.S. expect significant price increases in 2026, averaging a 4.2% rise, challenging the Federal Reserve's inflation targets [1][2] - Concerns over tariffs remain a primary risk for businesses, with many CFOs indicating that inflation pressures may persist longer than anticipated [1][3] Group 1: Inflation Expectations - The survey conducted among 548 CFOs revealed an average expected price increase of 4.2% for 2026, with half of the respondents anticipating increases of 3.5% or more [2] - This expectation contrasts sharply with the Federal Reserve's forecast, which suggests inflation could slow to within 0.5 percentage points of its 2% target by 2026 [2] Group 2: Tariff and Cost Pressures - Tariffs and trade policies remain the top concern for CFOs, despite a slight decrease in anxiety compared to earlier in the year [3] - CFOs expect unit costs to rise slightly above price increases, indicating that a 4.2% price hike may only marginally cover rising costs [3] Group 3: Business Confidence and Economic Outlook - Business optimism has declined, with the U.S. economic optimism index dropping from 62.9 to 60.2 [4] - Companies project a modest economic growth rate of approximately 1.9% for 2026, with employment expected to increase by 1.7% [4] - Less than half of the surveyed companies are actively hiring, with a notable percentage indicating no hiring plans or potential layoffs [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a view that the overall situation of treasury bond futures will be fluctuating with a downward bias, indicating a relatively cautious investment attitude towards the bond market [4]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current interest rate is supported by the central bank and capped by the fundamentals. The restraint of the central bank's monetary policy, the disappointment in bond - buying, the redistribution of new funds between the equity and fixed - income markets due to the entry of long - term funds, and the unfalsifiable "14th Five - Year Plan" policies in the next year limit the significant decline in long - term interest rates. The trend of commodities and inflation expectations may make the bond market face more headwinds [3]. - The report maintains the view that the overall situation of treasury bond futures will be fluctuating with a downward bias. In addition to short - selling hedging at high prices and long - position substitution at low prices under the high - selling and low - buying framework, strategies such as positive spreads trading and long positions in inter - delivery spreads under the timing framework are also recommended [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Anti - involution Policy Consolidates the Inflation Floor 1.1 Inflation Floor Consolidation Disturbs the Pricing of Real Interest Rates - In 2025, the overall operation of treasury bond futures was tortuous. The market showed a high - level shock in the first half of the year and a fluctuating downward trend except in October. The 30Y - 10Y spread widened from about 10bp at the beginning of the year to over 30bp [7]. - The macro - economy remained in the bottom - shock pattern. Exports were affected by the Sino - US trade war in the first half of the year, and domestic demand recovery was not significant. In the second half of the year, the policy intensity declined, and the GDP growth rate slowed down in the third and fourth quarters due to weak downstream demand [7]. - The "asset shortage" of RMB assets still exists, but the structure has changed. The net long - position in treasury bond futures has decreased, and the market's expectations for the bond market have diverged. After the anti - involution policy, the bond market showed a fluctuating downward trend [9]. - The capital market reform policies have increased the importance of the equity market, and the "slow - bull" of the equity market has become the "political correctness" of the capital market. If the Fed cuts interest rates further and domestic policies are arranged beyond expectations next year, the equity market will continue to recover, and the bond market will only have structural opportunities [9]. 1.2 Monetary Policy Orientation and Micro - analysis of Treasury Bond Futures - The statements in the Q1 monetary policy implementation report indicated that the central bank's next - stage focus was to increase inflation, promote growth, and reduce costs. However, the bond market's recovery did not exceed the high at the beginning of the year. After the introduction of policies such as anti - involution and the resumption of the collection of value - added tax on bond interest, the market's inflation expectations and the central bank's orientation changed rapidly, and the market showed a fluctuating downward trend from the middle of the year [20]. - The Q2 report emphasized the importance of structure, and the Q3 report aimed to maintain a relatively loose liquidity environment. The central bank's bond - buying, interest - rate cuts, and reserve - requirement ratio cuts at the end of the year were less than expected. In the framework of the unfalsifiable "14th Five - Year Plan" policies and the relatively restrained monetary policy next year, treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate within a range with a downward bias [20]. - In terms of market characteristics, the trading volume of the 12 - contract is limited, and the short - term inter - delivery spread may be positively correlated with the market. The basis has converged during the repair process since early June, and there is a demand for profit - taking in positive hedging. The curve structure has limited factors to support long - term steepening, and the steepening space may be reversed [21]. 2. Maintain the Judgment of Fluctuating and Downward - biased Interest Rates 2.1 Interest Rates are Supported by the Central Bank and Capped by the Fundamentals - Since 2015, China's interest rates have generally shown a downward trend, with three upward trends lasting more than a quarter. The duration and amplitude of these upward trends have gradually decreased, and the economic significance behind them has changed from fundamental and inflation - driven to short - term expectation and policy - driven [30]. - China has been in the passive de - stocking phase for nearly 34 months, longer than the 21 - month period in 1998. The GDP deflator has not turned positive. The second growth curve based on globalization and the real - estate model has encountered difficulties, and the future growth path depends on internal stimulus and external cooperation [30]. - Since the "9.24" in 2024, the policy bottom of the new economic cycle has been clear. The policy orientation of the financial sector is to guide long - term funds into the equity market. Although the fundamental recovery is still insufficient, the policy orientation makes it difficult for the market to break through the previous low of interest rates in the short term. Meanwhile, the limited elasticity of fundamentals and inflation restricts the upward space of interest rates, resulting in a fluctuating market where interest rates are supported by the central bank and capped by the fundamentals. In the long run, the inflow of funds into the equity market may lead to a fluctuating and downward - biased trend in treasury bond futures [31]. 2.2 Market Outlook for 2026 - The report maintains the view that the bond market will be fluctuating with a downward bias since the middle of the year. In addition to short - selling hedging at high prices and long - position substitution at low prices, strategies such as positive spreads trading and long positions in inter - delivery spreads under the timing framework are recommended [38].

Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's next policy direction remains uncertain following the release of non-farm payroll data, with the market initially leaning towards a dovish interpretation, but IC Forex platform suggests that this expectation lacks sufficient support to fully validate market bets on a rate cut in Q1 2024 (currently, the market estimates a 25% probability of a rate cut in January and 55% in March) [1] - The U.S. two-year Treasury yield tested a low of 3.45% but did not break below this level, while the yield curve showed a bull steepening pattern with yields across different maturities declining between 1.4 basis points (two-year) and 3.3 basis points (30-year) [1] - U.S. stock markets returned to calm, with major indices closing mixed; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.6%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.25% [1] Employment Data - In November, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added 64,000 jobs, failing to reverse the weak trend from October, which saw a decrease of 105,000 jobs primarily due to adjustments in government statistical methods [3] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.4% in September to 4.6% in November, marking a four-year high and exceeding market expectations of 4.5%. This increase has raised concerns as the unemployment rate has been on an upward trend since June [3] - If the missing October unemployment data is assumed to be 4.5%, the current unemployment rate is close to the critical threshold of 0.5 percentage points above the lowest three-month moving average, indicating a potential early recession [3] Economic Indicators - The risk of the unemployment rate breaching the threshold remains high as it is currently elevated, and with the exit of December 2024 data from the statistical window, the lowest three-month moving average will rise to 4.1% [4] - The market is believed to be underestimating the likelihood of the Federal Reserve continuing its monetary policy normalization cycle early next year, supported by strong retail sales data and PMI results [4] - Retail control group sales increased by 0.8% month-on-month, surpassing the market expectation of 0.4%, while the composite PMI index fell to 53, a six-month low, indicating a weakening economic growth momentum [4] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The UK’s November Consumer Price Index (CPI) data significantly underperformed expectations, reinforcing the necessity for the Bank of England to consider further rate cuts [5] - The Hungarian National Bank maintained its benchmark interest rate at 6.5% but adopted a more dovish stance, prompting discussions about potential rate cuts next year, as overall inflation and core inflation rates have declined [6] - The Hungarian central bank revised down its inflation forecasts for this year and next, with the current inflation rate expected to be 4.4% and next year's at 3.2%, while emphasizing the importance of maintaining positive real interest rates [7]

文┃小夏 两强对决，独立派VS忠诚派 特朗普对现任美联储主席鲍威尔很不满意，就因为鲍威尔没跟着他的节奏降息，还搞加息。 特朗普选人就看两点，忠诚度和降息意愿，这两位候选人刚好站在了对立面。 哈赛特是博彩市场的头号热门，以前在白宫待过，公开支持特朗普的激进降息想法，甚至建议降息幅度 翻倍。 虽然他最近说会维护央行独立性，但华尔街都觉得他是"白宫执行者"，标签太难撕了。 编辑┃叙言 美联储要换掌门了，全球金融圈都在盯着。 前美联储理事沃什和前白宫顾问哈赛特成了热门候选人，一边是华尔街力挺的独立派，一边是白宫青睐 的忠诚派。 作为常年关注财经动态的博主，我得跟大家掰扯掰扯，这场争夺战背后，藏着怎样的货币政策走向。 但美联储只能管短期利率，长期利率是市场说了算的。 市场已经用脚投票了，自从11月下旬哈赛特成领跑者的消息出来，10年期美债收益率从4.0%涨到了 4.2%。 沃什是前美联储理事，还有胡佛研究所经济学家的身份。 他在美联储时期有点"鹰派"，2008年之前还担心通胀问题，但现在得到了摩根大通CEO戴蒙这样的大 佬背书。 特朗普已经面试过他，这场对决越来越有看头。 市场预警，激进降息或适得其反 摩根大通CEO戴 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Australian government has revised its economic forecasts for the 2025-26 fiscal year, indicating an increase in inflation and unemployment expectations while maintaining the real GDP growth forecast unchanged [1] Economic Forecast Adjustments - Inflation expectation for the 2025-26 fiscal year has been raised from 3.0% to 3.75% [1] - Unemployment rate expectation has been increased from 4.25% to 4.5% [1] - Nominal GDP growth expectation has been adjusted from 3.25% to 5.25% [1] - The real GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.25% [1] Fiscal Deficit and Cash Balance - The projected cash balance deficit for Australia by the end of the 2025-26 fiscal year is expected to be AUD 36.8 billion (approximately USD 24.4 billion), which is lower than the previous forecast of AUD 42.2 billion [1] Economic Resilience and Investment Outlook - The Australian economy is reportedly responding strongly to challenges, with a recovery in the private sector accelerating [1] - The improvement in business investment prospects in the non-mining sector is identified as a key driver, with expectations that non-mining business investment will reach historical highs in the coming years [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年12月17日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美国11月非农新增就业超预期，但失业率意外升至四年高位，金价冲高 回落；美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，欧洲三大股指收盘全线下跌；美债收益率集体 下跌，10年期美债收益率跌3.12个基点报4.143%；美元指数跌0.06%报98.22，离岸 人民币对美元小幅升值报7.0361；COMEX黄金期货跌0.07%报4332.2美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货971.42，现货966.39，基差-5.03，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单91302千克，增加3千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向 ...

美联储博斯蒂克：进一步降息会将货币政策推向或进入宽松领域，从而使通胀和通胀预期面临风险。 来源：金融界AI电报 ...

德银解读，这些表态暗示沃什一旦上台，可能缩减QE研究成果、改革模型团队，甚至推动国会重新界 定联储双重使命。 市场最关注的利率立场，沃什近期言论呈现"结构性非鸽派"。一方面，他公开呼吁"当前应降低政策利 率"，以对冲财政收缩与地产下行压力；另一方面，他坚持"降息必须伴随资产负债表收缩"，即通过放 松监管、降低银行准备金要求，让缩表不再冲击货币市场。 德意志银行北美首席经济学家Matthew Luzzetti团队在12月15日发布的研报，第一时间为市场补上了"沃 什使用说明书"。 报告核心结论掷地有声：若沃什执掌联储，他将走出一条"降息与缩表并行"的非典型路径，但前提是监 管改革先行，否则政策组合"看起来很美，做起来很难"。 律师出身、无经济学博士头衔的沃什，履历横跨政、商、学三界：2006—2011年任职联储理事，亲历金 融危机救火；离职后执掌斯坦·德鲁肯米勒家族办公室Duquesne，兼任斯坦福商学院讲师与胡佛研究所 学者。 德银认为，这种"既做过监管官，也管过百亿钱"的复合背景，使沃什对金融市场脉搏与货币政策副作用 都有切肤之痛。 沃什的货币哲学可概括为"三反"：反QE、反前瞻指引、反使命蔓延。他对美联储 ...