波黑《萨拉热窝时报》10月19日报道。根据波黑央行于2025年9月进行的最新通胀预期调查结果， 通胀预期呈现小幅波动至3.5%，较6月的调查上升0.1个百分点。与此同时，2026年的通胀预期则从6月 的3.2%降至3.1%。央行报告强调，通胀预期下降并不意味着商品与服务价格下跌，而是反映了预期通 胀压力的增速放缓。这一趋势增强了经济政策的可预测性，有助于促进供需匹配、提升政策制定效率， 并进一步强化了对可支配收入增长的信心。对整体经济而言，稳定的通胀预期意味着企业经营、投资决 策与战略规划具备更强可预见性。在此环境下，宏观经济气候将更有利于实现可持续的增长与发展。 （驻波黑使馆经商处） （原标题：波黑央行调查显示2025年预期通胀率微升至3.5%） ...

【环球网财经综合报道】北京时间10月21日凌晨，国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX黄金期货涨3.82%报4374.30美 元/盎司，COMEX白银期货涨2.59%报51.40美元/盎司。对此有市场人士分析认为，美国政府停摆和美联储降息预期提 升黄金避险吸引力，欧盟能源政策转向加剧通胀预期，各国央行持续增持黄金储备。 日本产经新闻报道称，由于预计美国联邦储备委员会（FRB）在下周会议上将决定进一步降息，对无息黄金的投资吸 引力增强，引发了大量买入订单。半岛电视台在采访来自S&P Global Market Intelligence的分析师杰弗里·克里斯蒂安 时，他表示："我们预计未来几周或几个月价格将进一步上涨，黄金很快可能达到4500美元。" 消息面上，周大福将在10月底开启年内对"一口价"黄金产品的第二次调价，大多数产品的提价幅度预计在12%-18%。 上周五，古法手工金器品牌老铺黄金宣布，将于10月26日进行产品提价调整。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices has caught many investors off guard, with significant gains for those who purchased gold at lower prices [1] Factors Influencing Gold Prices - **Dollar Strength**: The relationship between gold and the US dollar is inversely correlated; a weaker dollar typically leads to higher gold prices, while a stronger dollar results in lower prices [3] - **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Policy**: Lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve make gold more attractive as a non-yielding asset, leading to price increases, whereas higher rates tend to decrease gold's appeal [4] - **Geopolitical Tensions**: Events such as wars or financial crises increase demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, driving prices up during times of uncertainty [5] - **Economic Conditions**: Economic downturns or uncertainty lead to increased gold purchases as a stable investment, while strong economic performance tends to decrease demand for gold [6] - **Inflation Expectations**: Rising expectations of inflation boost gold's appeal as a hedge, resulting in price increases, while declining inflation expectations can lead to price drops [7] - **Safe-Haven Demand**: Events like pandemics or disasters heighten risk aversion, increasing gold prices, while a return to normalcy can reduce demand [9] - **Global Monetary Policy**: Coordinated global monetary easing, such as interest rate cuts or quantitative easing, tends to increase gold prices, while tightening policies can lead to price declines [10] - **Financial Crises**: During financial crises, gold is viewed as a safe haven, with prices rising in response to increased demand; as crises abate, prices typically fall [11] - **Market Demand**: The overall demand for gold, including purchases by central banks and for jewelry, affects prices; higher demand with limited supply leads to price increases [12] - **US Economic Indicators**: Poor performance in key US economic indicators can drive investors towards gold, resulting in price increases, while strong indicators may lead to price declines [13]

Group 1 - The bond market has experienced multiple shifts in logic this year, with tightening liquidity in Q1 leading to adjustments in short-term bonds, followed by pressure release in long-term bonds as liquidity turned loose in Q2 [1] - The 10-year government bond yield has risen to around 1.75%, with support expected near 1.8% after a 10 basis point rate cut this year [1] - The upward movement in bond yields since Q3 has been primarily driven by non-fundamental factors, indicating significant pressure on the bond market despite the central bank's efforts to maintain liquidity [2] Group 2 - The macroeconomic narrative has improved, but the bond market is still facing substantial pressure, with a bear-steep yield curve indicating stability in short-term bonds while long-term bonds have seen larger adjustments [2] - Recent inflation data shows a narrowing decline in PPI to 2.3% year-on-year, while core CPI has increased by 1%, suggesting a potential bottoming out of inflation, although demand remains a critical factor for further increases [4] - The bond market's attractiveness has diminished this year, leading to a higher likelihood of new funds entering the stock market rather than the bond market, resulting in reduced incremental funds and declining stock scale [4] Group 3 - The central bank's potential reinitiation of government bond trading is anticipated, especially if the bond market enters an overshoot state, with expectations for such actions remaining high for the year [5][6] - The central bank's objectives for restarting bond trading include liquidity management, influencing interest rates, and supporting government bond issuance [6] - Observations from September indicate a reversal in the decline of household deposits, suggesting a shift in market dynamics that could impact M1 growth, which needs further monitoring [7]

Core Insights - Gold prices have reached a new high of $4,380.79, marking a continuous increase for five days and making gold the first global asset to surpass a total market value of $30 trillion [1] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to geopolitical tensions, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, central bank purchases, de-dollarization trends, and strong buying in gold ETFs [1][3] - Major financial institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs projecting a price of $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, and Bank of America and Societe Generale predicting prices could reach $5,000 next year [3] Market Dynamics - The recent surge in gold prices is influenced by several factors, including the U.S. government shutdown, trade tensions between the U.S. and China, and negative news from U.S. banks [1][2] - The ongoing uncertainty in the market is exacerbated by the U.S. Senate's repeated failure to pass a temporary funding bill, delaying economic data releases [1] - Concerns over bad loans in the banking sector due to fraud allegations have raised investor apprehensions about the banking industry's stability [2] Investment Opportunities - Notable investment vehicles include the low-cost gold and silver-related ETF, which has seen a net inflow of 1.661 billion yuan over the past 20 trading days [4] - The 华夏 Gold ETF has increased by 3.47%, with a total net inflow of 1.484 billion yuan in the last 20 trading days [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Gold: Due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations, gold prices continued to reach new highs. The upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged, with the Shanghai gold premium slightly converging to -3.5 yuan/gram, and domestic sentiment significantly rising [4]. - Silver: Affected by tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations, silver prices also reached new highs. Although the increase in silver prices was not significantly enlarged, the upward trend remained unchanged, and the Shanghai silver premium converged to -125 yuan/gram, with domestic silver price sentiment stable [5]. - Logic: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to an economic recession expectation. Gold prices were difficult to fall, and silver prices mainly followed gold prices. Tariff concerns had a stronger impact on silver prices, increasing the risk of a larger increase in silver prices [9][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: US stocks fell, European stocks rose, US bond yields declined (10 - year US bond yield fell 5.94 basis points to 3.973%), the US dollar index dropped 0.31% to 98.36, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar appreciated slightly. COMEX gold futures rose 3.40% to $4344.3 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, COMEX silver futures rose 3.99% to $53.43 per ounce [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis was -1.82, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures (neutral). Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 5862 kilograms to 80961 kilograms (bearish). The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average (bullish). The main net position was long, but the main long position decreased (bullish) [4]. - Silver: The basis was -27, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures (neutral). Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 48174 kilograms to 982255 kilograms (neutral). The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average (bullish). The main net position was long, and the main long position increased (bullish) [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Events: Speech by Japanese central bank deputy governor Uchida Masakazu at 14:35; speech by RBA deputy governor Hauser at 15:15; release of Eurozone September CPI final value at 17:00; speech by Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill at 17:35; possible release of US September new home starts and other data at 20:30; speech by European Central Bank Governing Council member and German central bank president Nagel and German finance minister Kingbeil at 20:45; release of Italian central bank quarterly economic report at 21:00; speech by Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Greene at 00:00 the next day; speech by St. Louis Fed President Musalem at 00:15 the next day; speech by Bank of England deputy governor Breeden at 00:30 the next day; speech by European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn at 01:00 the next day; release of US August international capital flow at 04:00 the next day [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The basis was -1.82, and the gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 5862 kilograms to 80961 kilograms [4]. - Silver: The basis was -27, and the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 48174 kilograms to 982255 kilograms [5]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: The main net position was long, but the main long position decreased [4]. - Silver: The main net position was long, and the main long position increased [5].

Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold prices is attributed to multiple favorable factors, with the expectation of interest rate cuts being the primary driver [2]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - As of October 16, spot gold is trading around $4220 per ounce, with a recent high of $4227.53 and a low of $4198.59, indicating a bullish short-term trend [1]. - Gold prices have increased by 1.59% on Wednesday, marking four consecutive days of gains, closing at $4207.96 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Gold - The expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the end of October is nearly unanimous among traders, with a 100% probability of another cut in December [2]. - The U.S. economy shows signs of weakness, with a government shutdown causing approximately $15 billion in daily economic output loss, affecting key data releases [2]. - The mention of "tariffs" in the Federal Reserve's reports highlights their impact on rising input costs and inflation expectations, with the term being referenced 64 times [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - Despite consolidating below the record high of $4218 per ounce, gold maintains a bullish outlook, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating strong upward pressure [3]. - A breakthrough above the record high could target resistance levels at $4250, $4300, and $4350 per ounce [3]. - Conversely, a daily close below $4200 could trigger a pullback, with initial support expected at $4150 and $4100 per ounce [3].

Core Insights - International gold prices have surged over 55% this year, reaching $4,200, with a target of $5,000 set by Bank of America for 2026 [2][4] - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, as indicated by Powell, are expected to support gold prices further [2][3] - Market sentiment and external factors, such as inflation expectations and geopolitical tensions, are driving increased investment in gold [5][6] Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices have increased significantly, moving from the "2 era" to the "4 era" this year, with a current price of $4,200 [2] - Bank of America has raised its gold price target for 2026 to $5,000, a figure that seemed unattainable at the beginning of the year [2] - The market anticipates further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with a 97.3% probability for a cut in October [3] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Factors influencing gold prices include the direction of the US dollar index, Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, global inflation, and geopolitical changes [4] - Central banks, including China's, are increasing gold reserves, providing a steady influx of capital to support gold prices [4] - Market sentiment is amplifying positive news and minimizing negative news, contributing to the upward trend in gold prices [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current gold market is nearing a 10-year bull cycle, with historical patterns suggesting potential for continued price increases [6] - The phenomenon of TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) is contributing to heightened market risk aversion and weakening the credibility of the US dollar [5] - Despite the bullish trend, there is a need for caution as the gold market approaches the end of its typical 10-year cycle [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor, Milan, indicates that the divergence in policy views among colleagues is more about the pace of interest rate cuts rather than the ultimate target for rate reductions [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Interest Rate Policy - There is no necessity to cut rates by more than 50 basis points [1] - The focus is on the speed of rate cuts rather than the final target [1] Inflation Outlook - A more optimistic view on inflation is held, primarily due to expectations regarding housing costs [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the gradual emergence of internal economic pressures under the decline of "cyclical" forces, with export growth remaining robust despite challenges such as US-China tariffs, driven by the industrialization of emerging countries and China's market share increase in emerging markets [2][10] - Domestic demand is expected to remain under pressure, indicated by a decline in equipment renewal cycles and reduced new construction, leading to potential further downturns in manufacturing and real estate investments [2][22] - Manufacturing investment has been strong due to natural equipment renewal cycles, but this is now entering a downturn phase, as evidenced by the difference between manufacturing investment and fixed asset growth rates reaching a peak and beginning to decline [2][22] Group 2 - The transition from "old policies" to "new policies" may have a delayed impact on economic stimulation, with the effects of demand overextension from previous policies becoming more apparent, potentially leading to weaker consumer goods and manufacturing investment [4][83] - Fiscal support is nearing its limits, with government debt issuance slowing and fiscal revenue recovery being sluggish, making it difficult for broad fiscal spending to maintain high growth rates [4][83] - The new policies, while beneficial for long-term economic quality growth, may constrain short-term economic growth, as seen in the significant drop in fixed asset investment due to funding constraints from new policy implementations [4][45] Group 3 - The slow rollout of "incremental policies" and the existing time lag in their economic transmission are expected to limit their immediate impact on economic growth, with significant effects likely not materializing until late in the fourth quarter or early 2026 [5][84] - Recent data indicates a decline in inflation support, with upstream commodity price increases slowing down, which diminishes their positive impact on the Producer Price Index (PPI) [6][59] - The anticipated recovery in prices is expected to be weak, with both PPI and Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing signs of slow recovery due to various factors, including high youth unemployment affecting rental prices [6][63] Group 4 - Looking ahead, the internal growth momentum of the economy is expected to decline, with a focus on the effectiveness of new policies in supporting domestic demand [8][71] - Despite the challenges, external demand is anticipated to remain resilient, with exports expected to perform well due to improvements in demand from developed countries and increased market share in emerging economies [8][71] - Overall, the economic downward pressure is considered limited, with GDP growth projected at 4.6% for the third quarter and 4.8% for the fourth quarter [8][75]