行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 6 月 10 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 一、贵金属行情及展望 每日报告 日内行情： 美国非农就业数据虽然偏弱但就业薪资意外增长，美联储降息预期降温打压 贵金属，伦敦黄金一度回撤到 3293 美元/盎司附近，但由于 ICE 抓捕非法移民引 发的洛杉矶骚乱为贵金属带来支撑；由于国际贸易形势短期缓和改善白银的工业 需求预期，同时 2024 年下半年以来金银比值显著上升增加了白银的性价比，近期 投资资金涌入白银期货现货市场，白银价格在突破关键压力位后获得进一步的上 涨动能；但从中期角度看全球经济增长前景以及白银工业需求依然偏弱，纯粹资 ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 0 6 / 1 0 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 沪银期货暴涨，原因与展望 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 继2025年6月6日，沪银期货市场出现大幅上涨，6月9日白银继续上涨。此次沪银期货暴涨，主要有 几大驱动因素。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 首先，全球地缘政治风险持续升级，投资者避险需求大增，作为传统避险资产的白银自然受到青睐。 其次，市场对美联储2025年降息预期不断升温，美元走弱，资金大量流入白银市场，推动价格上涨。 再者，新能源产业蓬勃发展，白银在工业尤其是光伏领域需求激增，而矿产供应增长有限，供需缺 口进一步拉大 。此外，金银比一度升至1比100，白银相对黄金被显著低估，市场对金银比回归的预 期也刺激了白银补涨。 展望未来，白银市场的不确定性仍然存在。若地缘政治紧张局势缓和、美联储货币政策转向，可能 抑制白银价格的进一步上涨。但从长期看，随着新能源产业持续扩张，白银工 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notice on June 9, urging investors to manage risks and control positions as gold prices experienced a decline of approximately 1% on that day [1][2][3] - The exchange has issued risk warnings six times this year, with three occurring in April alone, reflecting significant market volatility during that month [2] - The global gold ETF saw a net outflow of 19.1 tons, valued at $18.3 billion in May, marking the first outflow since November 2024 [2][3] Group 2 - On June 9, both gold futures and spot prices fell by around 1%, with 13 out of 14 gold-themed ETFs also experiencing declines [3] - Despite the recent downturn, gold-themed ETFs have shown an overall increase of nearly 25% year-to-date, while gold stock ETFs have risen over 34% [3] - Central banks continue to show net inflows into gold, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold reserves to 73.83 million ounces by the end of May, marking a continuous growth for seven months [3] Group 3 - Other precious metals like platinum and silver have gained momentum, with platinum prices surpassing $1,200 per ounce and silver reaching over $36 per ounce, reflecting year-to-date increases of 34% and over 25%, respectively [4] - The silver ETF in the U.S. has seen significant inflows, with a single-day increase of 2.2 million ounces in holdings [4] Group 4 - Analysts suggest that the recent surge in silver prices may indicate a broader trend, as investors seek more elastic alternatives to traditional safe-haven assets like gold [7] - The net long positions for both gold and silver have increased significantly, with gold net longs rising by 13,000 contracts to reach 130,000 contracts [7][8]

周一亚洲交易时段，美元指数稳居99.17高位，延续上周五的强劲走势。美国非农就业数据超出预期，给期待美联储降息的投资者泼了一盆冷 水。 **美元指数上周五收涨0.53%至99.20**，创下两周来最大单日涨幅。 与此同时，美国洛杉矶的大规模骚乱已进入第三天，特朗普部署2000名国民警卫队进驻洛杉矶，美防长甚至表示海军陆战队正"高度戒备"。** 这场美国内乱意外成为避险资产的临时推手**，黄金在亚市早盘小幅上涨至3317美元附近。 一份超预期的就业报告，一场突如其来的美国骚乱，全球外汇市场在避险与预期的角力中开启关键一周。 01 市场概览：非农引爆美元，黄金承压 上周五外汇市场经历剧烈波动。美国劳工部数据显示，**5月非农就业岗位增加13.9万个**，虽低于4月的14.7万，但超过预期的13万。 这份"**恰到好处**"的就业报告既显示劳动力市场略有降温，又证明经济韧性犹存，直接打击了市场对美联储近期降息的预期。 数据公布后，金融市场迅速调整押注：**交易员削减了2025年第三次降息的预期**，将首次降息时间推迟至9月。美债收益率应声飙升，10年 期美债收益率暴涨超10个基点至4.512%，为2010年来罕见涨 ...

【交易提醒】 周五现货黄金单日下跌1.27%，收报3309.47美元/盎司，创近三周新低；COMEX黄金期货同步下跌1.31%，收于3331.00美元/盎司35。美国5月非农就 业数据超预期（新增13.9万人，预期12.6万），失业率持稳4.2%，削弱美联储降息预期。市场对9月降息概率从88%降至60%，推动美元走强，10年 期美债收益率上升，压制黄金避险需求。 周五美元指数呈现一定波动。从数据看，当日开盘报98.74，上一交易日（6 月5日）收盘于98.74，整体处于震荡态势，且此前（当地时间6月5日） 美元指数曾小幅下跌0.07%并触及近32日新低，6月6日的走势延续了震荡特征，同时市场也在关注晚间非农数据等因素对其后续走向的指引。 【国际要闻】 【行情回顾】 现货黄金（XAU/USD） 周一黄金呈现出下跌走势。前期有绿色阳线后，接连出现多根红色阴线，反映价格整体下行。开盘价3312.23，最高价3321.16，阴线形态显示卖方 力量主导，价格呈逐步回落态势。 美元指数（DXY） 美联储于6月6日发布的经济褐皮书指出，美国经济自4月中旬至5月底呈现温和增长态势，多数地区报告劳动力市场紧张状况有所缓解，企业 ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 0 6 / 0 9 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 沪银期货暴涨，原因与展望 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 2025年6月6日，沪银期货市场出现大幅上涨，主力合约涨幅接近4%，价格创下8804元/千克的历史 新高，引发了市场广泛关注。此次沪银期货暴涨，主要有几大驱动因素。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 首先，全球地缘政治风险持续升级，投资者避险需求大增，作为传统避险资产的白银自然受到青睐。 其次，市场对美联储2025年降息预期不断升温，美元走弱，资金大量流入白银市场，推动价格上涨。 再者，新能源产业蓬勃发展，白银在工业尤其是光伏领域需求激增，而矿产供应增长有限，供需缺 口进一步拉大 。此外，金银比一度升至1比100，白银相对黄金被显著低估，市场对金银比回归的预 期也刺激了白银补涨。 展望未来，白银市场的不确定性仍然存在。若地缘政治紧张局势缓和、美联储货币政策转向，可能 抑制白银价格的 ...

Group 1 - The gold market experienced increased volatility due to multiple factors, with spot gold prices dropping over 1% on Friday but still recording a weekly gain of 0.8%, indicating a tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and a strengthening dollar [1] - The overall trend for the week was upward, driven by risk aversion, but prices fell sharply on Friday following stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data [1] - Spot gold closed at $3,316.13 per ounce on Friday, down 1.1%, while U.S. futures gold fell 0.8% to $3,346.60 per ounce [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Labor Department reported that 139,000 non-farm jobs were added in May, exceeding market expectations of 130,000, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.2% [2] - Analyst Edward Meir indicated that the data suggests the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts, with financial markets anticipating the earliest cut in September and only two cuts by 2025 [2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased, putting pressure on gold prices [2] Group 3 - From a technical perspective, spot gold is at a critical area, with the Bollinger Bands expanding and prices near the middle band at $3,296.92, indicating short-term pressure [2] - A drop below the middle band could test the lower band at $3,171.53, while a rebound could challenge the upper band at $3,422.30 [2] - The 50-period moving average at $3,234.79 provides support, but the MACD indicator shows insufficient bullish momentum, with short-term direction dependent on the middle band [2]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged significantly, driven by geopolitical tensions and industrial demand, with recent developments indicating a potential for further price increases in the coming years [2][3][6]. Group 1: Price Movements and Market Reactions - On June 5, silver prices experienced a sharp increase, with London silver reaching $36.053 per ounce, marking the highest level since February 2012 [3]. - The announcement by the Trump administration to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum has led to heightened speculation that similar measures may be applied to other metals, including silver, thus increasing its demand as a safe-haven asset [4][5]. - Silver futures saw a significant increase in long positions, with total holdings rising by $2.8 billion, the largest two-day increase in the past year [5]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Demand - The recent economic uncertainty, highlighted by a contraction in U.S. service sector activity and slowing job growth, has led to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which typically benefits non-yielding precious metals like silver [3][6]. - Industrial demand for silver remains strong, particularly in clean energy technologies, with the silver market facing a supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [3][6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Investment Considerations - Analysts predict that the price gap between silver and gold may narrow from the current 27 percentage points to 10-15 percentage points over the next 1-2 years, driven by various economic factors [6][7]. - The current gold-silver ratio is significantly higher than historical averages, suggesting that silver may be undervalued relative to gold, which could attract investors and drive prices higher [6][7].

白银正在抢夺黄金的光环。 周四现货白银一度暴涨4.5%，触及每盎司36美元整数关口的上方，创下2012年2月以来最高水平。 德国贵金属精炼商Heraeus Group高级交易员Alexander Zumpfe指出， 这轮涨势由技术动能、基本面改善和更广泛的投资者兴趣共同推动 。 Zumpfe表示： 在落后黄金数周后，白银现在正在迎头赶上，这表明趋势投资者重新燃起兴趣，正在轮动至白银。 过去12个月，受益于美国主导的关税战升级以及各国央行持续大举购金，黄金涨幅高达42%。相比之下，白银涨幅约15%，明显落后。 但周四的爆发性上涨正在缩小这一差距，交易所的白银交易基金出现显著资金流入，持仓量单日增加220万盎司。与此同时， 截至5月23日当周，资金管理公 司也增加了对Comex白银期货的看涨押注 。 分析指出，这种 资金流入模式往往预示着更大规模的趋势性行情。当避险需求从黄金扩散至白银时，通常意味着投资者对传统避险资产的需求已达到临界点， 开始寻求更具弹性的替代品 。 工业需求构筑底部支撑 与纯粹的货币属性黄金不同，白银具有双重属性——既是金融资产，也是工业原料。 作为工业原料，白银在清洁能源技术中扮演关键角色， ...

Group 1 - The precious metals market is experiencing a strong rally, with silver prices reaching a 13-year high and platinum hitting a two-year high, indicating investor enthusiasm for industrial precious metals [1] - As of Friday, spot silver continued its upward trend, having surged 4.5% the previous day, while platinum prices rose by 1.7% during the day, and gold also saw an increase [1] - The recent price increases are driven by both technical momentum and fundamental improvements, with strong physical silver demand in India and a recovery in platinum demand in China providing significant market support [1] Group 2 - Over the past 12 months, gold has risen over 40%, primarily supported by escalating global trade tensions and continued central bank purchases [1] - Although silver and platinum have year-to-date increases of approximately 19% and 13% respectively, they lag behind gold; however, their industrial properties are crucial drivers, with silver being a key material for solar panels and platinum widely used in internal combustion engines and catalytic converters [1] - Predictions indicate that both silver and platinum markets may face supply shortages this year [1] Group 3 - If silver can maintain a price above $35 per ounce, it may trigger increased retail investor interest; platinum ETF holdings have increased by over 3% since mid-May, indicating a return of funds to the market [1] - Silver ETFs have seen continuous inflows since February, with a nearly 8% increase in holdings [1] - Palladium prices also rose by 1.4% on Friday, influenced by market sentiment [1] Group 4 - As of the latest report, spot gold is priced at $3,368.87 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 2.4%, while the Bloomberg Dollar Index has slightly risen by 0.1% [2] - The market is focused on upcoming U.S. employment data, with an unexpected rise in initial jobless claims reinforcing expectations for at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [2] - The current precious metals rally reflects a blend of safe-haven demand and industrial recovery, with silver and platinum needing to maintain key price levels while monitoring ETF fund flows and economic data for sustainability of the upward trend [2]