更多分析师加入看多更多贵金属行列。 美联储降息预期、避险需求叠加投资热情，推动金价在今日（23日）亚太交易时段再创3749.27美元/盎司的历史 新高。白银也连续上涨三日，逼近44美元/盎司的逾14年新高。市场正密切关注白银能否突破1980年1月的历史收 盘高点48.70美元/盎司。 金银比翼同飞之际，以大宗商品全球主管马克西米利安·莱顿（Maximilian Layton）为首德花旗策略师团队预 测，"在美联储新鸽派领导层在2026年5~6月上任的前景、美国实际利率下降及美元承压的推动下，黄金和白银的 牛市行情将进一步扩大，并最终在2026年延伸至铜和铝领域。" 金价又又又创新高，开启长牛模式 金价今日微涨至3749.27美元/盎司，此前两个交易日连续上涨。 本轮金价上涨最直接的引擎，无疑来自于市场对美联储将进一步降息的强烈预期。虽然美联储主席鲍威尔仍强调 未来降息路径将保持谨慎，但市场仍预计美联储未来将大幅降息。 瑞士宝盛新世纪思维研究主管曼克（Carsten Menke）在降息前后对一财记者表示，过去几周，货币政策无疑是投 资需求增加的主要推动力，短线交易员与市场跟风者担心自己会错过这一波上涨，进一步推 ...

各位老铁，我是帮主郑重！跟大家盯了20年财经，专做中长线投资，今儿凌晨翻大宗商品数据，发现这市场还真有点"几家欢喜"的意思——黄金直接飙到 历史新高，油价却悄悄微跌，铜价倒是稳得很。这仨核心品种走势分化，背后藏着不少跟咱们投资相关的信号，咱今儿就用聊天的方式，把这事儿捋明 白。 先说说原油，周一算是小跌了一点，10月到期的WTI原油收在62.64美元每桶，11月更活跃的合约还低点儿，62.28美元；布伦特原油也跌了0.2%，收在 66.57美元。为啥跌？主要是投资者在"算账"：一边是欧盟要对俄罗斯石油搞新制裁，据说重点盯着第三国的石油企业，连印度几家公司都可能波及；另 一边是乌克兰周六袭击了俄罗斯的能源设施，连干线输油管道的泵站都给破坏了，之前还打了两座炼油厂。 听着好像挺紧张，但业内人看得明白——就像瑞典北欧斯安银行那分析师说的，乌克兰这袭击能对冲点利空，但强度还不够，没到能让俄罗斯石油基础 设施出大问题、影响长期供应的地步。而且从8月初到现在，油价一直卡在5美元的波动区间里没动，BOK Financial的专家也说了，想打破这区间，美欧 得在制裁俄罗斯买家上达成一致，不然光靠对俄加制裁，效果有限。咱做中长 ...

希尔威金属矿业(SVM.US)周一收涨17.27%，报6.11美元，该股今年以来累计上涨104%。 消息面上，周一，纽约商品交易所12月交割的黄金期货价格上涨69.30美元，涨幅1.9%，收于每盎司 3775.10美元，创下最活跃合约有记录以来的最高收盘价。这是黄金今年以来第36次刷新历史收盘纪 录，年初至今累计涨幅已达到43%，远超1980年经通胀调整后的历史高点。 白银价格也在持续上涨，现货白银周一涨至43.8美元/盎司，创下逾14年新高。随着美联储放松政策、 各大央行增持储备以及持续的地缘政治紧张局势助推避险需求，黄金和白银在多重利好因素支撑下跻身 年内表现最佳的大宗商品之列。此外，白银还因光伏等绿色产业的强劲需求，面临持续的供应缺口。 值得一提的是，公开资料显示，公司El Domo项目目前正处于建设阶段，该项目富含铜、金、银等多种 金属，一方面该项目将帮助希尔威降低对白银、铅锌等原有主力金属价格的过度依赖，实现金属多元 化;其次，根据可行性研究，El Domo项目投产后，在10年矿山寿命期内，预计年均产量约2.1万吨铜当 量，有望成为强大的利润增长点。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise in the stock price of Silvercorp Metals (SVM.US), which increased by 17.27% to $6.11, marking a cumulative gain of 104% year-to-date [1] - Gold futures for December delivery on the New York Commodity Exchange rose by $69.30, or 1.9%, closing at $3,775.10 per ounce, achieving the highest closing price on record for the most active contract [1] - The year-to-date increase in gold prices has reached 43%, surpassing the inflation-adjusted historical peak from 1980, with this being the 36th time gold has set a new historical closing record this year [1] Group 2 - Silver prices also saw a significant increase, with spot silver rising to $43.8 per ounce, reaching a level not seen in over 14 years [1] - The rise in gold and silver prices is attributed to multiple favorable factors, including the Federal Reserve's easing policies, central banks increasing reserves, and ongoing geopolitical tensions driving safe-haven demand [1] - Silver is facing a continuous supply shortage due to strong demand from green industries such as photovoltaics [1] Group 3 - Silvercorp's El Domo project is currently under construction and is rich in copper, gold, and silver, which will help the company diversify its metal portfolio and reduce reliance on silver, lead, and zinc prices [1] - According to feasibility studies, the El Domo project is expected to yield an average annual production of approximately 21,000 tons of copper equivalent over a 10-year mine life, potentially becoming a significant profit growth driver for the company [1]

智通财经APP获悉，尽管美联储官员在货币政策前景方面发表了谨慎评论，但投资者仍选择忽视，黄金 再度创下历史新高。周二亚洲市场，现货黄金小幅上涨至每盎司3749.27美元，延续了此前两个交易日 的涨势，并再度刷新纪录。 上周金价短暂下跌后，投资者大量涌入交易型开放式基金(ETF)，其中周五的持仓增速创三年多以来最 快。此前，美联储主席鲍威尔在央行上周三降息后释放出抑制快速宽松预期的信号，导致金价一度承 压。通常而言，利率下降有利于无息的贵金属。 BMO资本市场分析师Helen Amos与George Heppel在周一的一份报告中写道："在美联储降息25个基点 后，金价一度因鲍威尔在FOMC讲话中释放的谨慎信号而回落，但新的上行动能已经形成，ETF流入仍 是推动力。随着降息周期已被确立，我们认为进入第四季度，黄金价格的风险回报依然积极。" 鲍威尔将在周二稍晚发表一场备受关注的经济前景演讲。上周公布的点阵图显示，美联储内部对未来政 策路径的分歧较大。与此同时，多位美联储官员周一重申未来在利率决策上需要保持谨慎。圣路易斯联 储主席穆萨莱姆表示，在通胀压力依然高企的情况下，进一步降息的空间有限。亚特兰大联储主席博斯 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices surged to a historic high, with December 2025 gold futures rising by $61.8 to $3781.2 per ounce, marking a 1.66% increase [1] - The SPDR Gold Trust's gold holdings exceeded 1000 tons for the first time since August 2022, indicating strong investment demand [2] - Silver prices also reached a fourteen-year high, with December silver futures increasing by $0.95 to $44.315 per ounce, reflecting a 2.19% rise [3] Group 2 - Market confidence in further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve remains high, despite cautious statements from officials regarding inflation and rate adjustments [1] - Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, particularly related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to support safe-haven demand for gold [2] - The silver market is expected to experience a fifth consecutive year of supply-demand imbalance, contributing to bullish expectations for silver prices [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Adjusting [2] - Soda ash: Adjusting [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Oscillating [3] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebounding [3] - Gold: Bullish [3] - Silver: Bullish [3] - Logs: Range-bound [5] - Pulp: Consolidating at the bottom [5] - Offset paper: Bearish [5] - Edible oils: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [9] - PX: On the sidelines [9] - PTA: Oscillating [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented as expected, and after the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to the real economy [2][3] - The supply of overseas iron ore has declined slightly, but the total global iron ore shipments are still at a relatively high level in recent years, and the demand for iron ore has rebounded [2] - The coal mine shutdown news and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" have jointly promoted the rebound of coking coal and coke futures [2] - The real estate investment continues to decline, and the total demand is difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance, forming a pattern of high in the first half and low in the second half [2] - The overall glass supply remains stable, and the demand has limited growth, with a loose fundamental pattern [2] - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional focus on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases, and the price is expected to remain bullish [3] - The supply of logs is tightening, and the cost support is weakening, with the price expected to range-bound [5] - The pulp price is expected to consolidate at the bottom, and the offset paper market is bearish [5] - The supply pressure of edible oils is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [5] - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5] - The average trading weight of live pigs is rising, and the price is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term [7] - The natural rubber price is expected to oscillate widely, and the PX and PTA prices will follow the cost fluctuations [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments decreased by 2.483 million tons to 33.248 million tons, but the 47-port iron ore arrivals increased by 3.581 million tons to 27.504 million tons. The daily average pig iron output rebounded slightly, driving up the demand for iron ore. The steel mills' profit ratio declined, but the motivation for active production cuts was still insufficient, with inventory replenishment expected before the festival. The iron ore 2601 contract broke through the previous high and showed an oscillating and bullish trend [2] - Coking coal and coke: The shutdown news of coal mines and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" promoted the rebound of coking coal and coke futures. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year in the second half of the year, and the demand for coking coal and coke has rebounded with the arrival of the peak season. An individual coking enterprise in Inner Mongolia initiated the first round of coke price increase. The price is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar: The Fed's interest rate cut and the coal mine shutdown news, along with the "anti-involution" expectation, promoted the rebound of coking coal and coke, which in turn drove up the rebar price. The output of finished steel decreased slightly, but the supply remained at a relatively high level. The total demand was difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance, and the rebar 2601 contract is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term, with attention paid to the inventory performance [2] - Glass: The glass supply remained stable, and the demand had limited growth. The downstream deep-processing factory orders increased slightly, but the demand increment was limited. The coal-to-gas conversion in Shahe may cause short-term fluctuations in the market. The key for the 01 contract lies in the cold repair path, and attention should be paid to the pre-festival inventory replenishment [2] Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock indexes showed different performances. The computer hardware and precious metals sectors had capital inflows, while the catering and tourism and soft drink sectors had capital outflows. The market rebounded, and it is recommended to control the risk preference and maintain the current long position of stock indexes [3] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond and FR007 increased by 1bp, and SHIBOR3M remained flat. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the market interest rate fluctuated. The Treasury bond price showed a weakening trend, and it is recommended to hold a light long position [3] - Gold and silver: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and the price is affected by central bank gold purchases, currency, finance, and geopolitical factors. The interest rate policy of the Fed and geopolitical conflicts are the main influencing factors. The price of gold and silver is expected to remain bullish, with attention paid to Powell's speech and PCE data [3] Light Industry - Logs: The daily average port shipments of logs decreased, and the supply from New Zealand declined. The port inventory decreased, and the cost support weakened. The price is expected to range-bound [5] - Pulp: The spot market price of pulp was stable, and the cost support increased. However, the papermaking industry's profitability was low, and the paper mills' inventory pressure was high, with the price expected to consolidate at the bottom [5] - Offset paper: The spot market price of offset paper declined. The production was relatively stable, but it was in the downstream seasonal off-season, and the demand was poor. The industry was in a stage of overcapacity, and the price was expected to be bearish [5] Oil and Fat Industry - Edible oils: The production of Malaysian palm oil increased slightly in August, and the inventory increased by 4.18% to 2.2 million tons. The supply pressure of domestic soybean oil increased, and the price of edible oils is expected to oscillate widely, with attention paid to the weather in the US soybean-producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [5] - Soybean meal: The US soybean yield increased, but the export demand was weak, and the domestic supply was abundant. The price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias, with attention paid to the US soybean weather and soybean arrivals [5] Agricultural Products Industry - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs increased, and the supply was relatively abundant. The terminal consumption market was sluggish, and the slaughtering enterprise's开工 rate declined. The price is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term, with the support of the pre-festival inventory replenishment demand [7] Soft Commodities Industry - Natural rubber: The supply pressure in Yunnan decreased, and the production in Hainan was lower than expected. The demand for tires increased, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to oscillate widely [9] - PX and PTA: The PX supply was in surplus, and the price followed the oil price fluctuations. The PTA supply and demand both increased, but the overall supply-demand margin weakened, and the price followed the cost fluctuations [9]

周二亚洲时段，现货 黄金一度上涨至3,749.27美元/盎司，继续刷新纪录。上周在鲍威尔压制快速宽松 预期、黄金短暂回落后，投资者迅速涌入黄金ETF，周五持仓增幅创三年多来最快。"在美联储降息25 个基点次日回落后，新的上行动能已经形成，可能是因市场感受到鲍威尔在讲话中的谨慎态度，而ETF 资金流入仍是主要驱动力。"BMO资本市场分析师在报告中表示，"随着降息周期已牢牢摆上台面，我 们认为进入第四季度价格的风险回报依然积极。"在美联储降息、各国央行增加黄金储备，以及持续的 地缘政治紧张推动避险需求的背景下，黄金已成为今年表现最强劲的 大宗商品之一，高盛等主要投行 均预计价格将进一步上涨。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the ongoing surge in gold prices, with December futures on the New York Commodity Exchange rising by $69.30, or 1.9%, to close at $3,775.10 per ounce, marking the highest closing price on record for the most active contract [1] - Year-to-date, gold has seen a cumulative increase of 43%, surpassing the inflation-adjusted historical high from 1980, leading to intense discussions about whether the price increase is excessive [1] - Factors contributing to the rise in gold prices include inflation, currency devaluation, debt, geopolitical conflicts, and socio-economic anxieties, positioning gold as a "perfect investment for the perfect timing" and a hedge against uncertainty [1] Group 2 - According to Brett Friedman, the current gold market resembles a "positive and sustained bull market" rather than a true bubble, as implied volatility in the options market remains within normal ranges, indicating that investor sentiment has not reached a state of frenzy [2] - Friedman cautions that while financial bubbles are rare and typically only confirmed in hindsight, there are early warning signs in the gold market, such as increased exposure in social and mainstream media and a surge in gold ETF trading activity [3] Group 3 - Adrian Ash from BullionVault suggests that the current rise in gold prices is a result of a "perfect storm," driven by factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, political division in the U.S., escalating violence, and heightened tensions between NATO and Russia, all of which have increased demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets [3] - The collapse of global trust and cooperation is ongoing, with significant inflows into gold ETFs indicating that investor allocation to precious metals is just beginning, as evidenced by the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD.US) recording net inflows for five consecutive weeks [3] Group 4 - Jake Hanley from Teucrium Management notes that the recent rise in gold prices is not driven by new news but is a continuation of strong technical trends since early September, characterized by a breakout pattern that suggests sustained bullish momentum [5]

周一，国际金价强势冲高！ 降息预期助推金价走高 上周，美联储宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至4.00%至4.25%，这是美联储自2024年12月以来首次降息。 加上此前公布的多项关键数据已显露出美国经济降温的信号，如劳动力市场数据不佳，8月非农就业人数仅增加2.2万人，远低于市场预期的7.5万人，失业率 也升至4.3%，为2021年末以来最高。 这使得市场对后续降息的预期显著升温。据CME"美联储观察"显示，美联储10月降息25个基点概率达89.8%；12月累计降息50个基点概率高达75.4%。 | | | | | | | CME FEDWATCH TOOL - CONDITIONAL MEETING PROBABILITIES | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MEETING DATE 175-200 200-225 | | | 225-250 | 250-275 | 275-300 300-325 | | | 325-350 350-375 375- ...