Core Conclusions - The report emphasizes the accumulation of upward momentum in the A-share market, advocating for a focus on high dividend stocks, sectors supported by economic conditions, and active growth themes [3][4]. Market Overview - The market is expected to experience upward momentum amidst fluctuations, with loose liquidity providing a floor but slow internal growth limiting rapid increases. The overall profit forecast for the A-share market indicates a confirmed improvement trend, which may become a significant force for upward breakthroughs [6][11]. - The report predicts that the overall growth will show a steady decline, with GDP growth expected to reach 5.0% for 2025, with quarterly estimates of 5.4% for Q1 and 4.7% for Q4 [10][11]. Industry Allocation - The report suggests a preference for three main directions in industry allocation: 1. High dividend stocks, particularly in banking and insurance, which are expected to benefit from improved economic conditions and liquidity [4][6]. 2. Sectors supported by economic conditions, including new materials, rare metals, precious metals, engineering machinery, motorcycles, and agricultural chemicals [4][6]. 3. Active growth themes such as AI and robotics, and military industry, which are anticipated to experience a rebound after initial suppression [4][6]. Economic Analysis - The report highlights the interplay of "slow variables" like consumer behavior and "fast variables" such as exports and real estate, indicating that consumer spending is expected to recover slowly while external demand may weaken [12][19]. - It notes that consumer spending is heavily reliant on government subsidies, with the "old-for-new" policy significantly boosting consumption [20][22]. Export Outlook - The report indicates that global demand is under pressure due to tariff conflicts initiated by the U.S., which may hinder export growth. The forecast for export growth in 2025 has been adjusted to 1.8%, significantly lower than the previous year's 5.9% [46][47]. - It emphasizes the need for China to diversify its export markets and shift towards domestic sales in response to external uncertainties [47][48]. Real Estate Sector - The report discusses the weakening momentum in the real estate sector, with new home sales under pressure and a significant increase in unsold inventory. The forecast for real estate development investment has been revised down to a decline of 9.9% for 2025 [51][60]. - It highlights that the recovery in the real estate market is likely to face challenges without new policy stimuli, as transaction volumes and prices remain under pressure [53][56].

2025 年 06 月 21 日 策略研究团队 箱体震荡的突破契机，及当下的配置思路 ——投资策略周报 韦冀星（分析师） weijixing@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524030002 5 月以来 A 股窄幅震荡的原因和未来突破箱体的可能催化 科技思路：关注自主可控+军工：AI+、机器人、半导体、信创、军工（导弹、无人 机、卫星）。 红利思路：基于需求尚未出现拐点，关注稳定型红利（即银行、公共事业）。 黄金：黄金和军工成为大变局下两大长期战略配置资产。我们认为 3 季度初将会是 下一个最佳的黄金配置时点，原因是 4 大要素的合击：一是美国 10 万亿国债到期； 二是中美谈判将进入深水区；三是美国降息预期的恶化到了极限；四是中国央行购 金速度或将恢复。 风险提示：宏观政策超预期变动加快复苏进程；全球流动性及地缘政治恶化风险； 前瞻指标的使用基于历史数据，不能代表未来。 自 5 月至今，上证指数已经在 3300-3400 的区间内窄幅波动接近 2 个月的时间，宽 基指数的波动率非常低。我们在 5 月 5 日发布的中期策略展望当中便强调过造成本 次窄幅波动的 DDM 背景：（1）上有顶：盈利尚在磨底— ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of bank stocks in the A-share market, with 19 out of 42 bank stocks reaching historical highs this year, representing 45.24% of the total, leading all sectors in the market [1][2] - The bank stock index has seen a cumulative increase of 12.73% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index, which has declined by 2.24% during the same period [1] - The automotive sector ranks second in terms of the proportion of stocks reaching historical highs, with 19.06%, while the machinery equipment sector follows with 15.96% [1] Group 2 - The strong performance of bank stocks is attributed to three main factors: a continued loose domestic monetary policy in a low inflation environment, sustained inflow of long-term funds into high-dividend, low-volatility bank stocks, and the reform of public funds leading to increased allocation to bank stocks [2] - Current investment logic for bank stocks includes the gradual alleviation of pressure on bank interest margins due to a slowdown in loan rate declines, and the highlighted high dividend advantage of bank stocks during the interest rate downcycle [2] - Investors are advised to focus on high-quality regional small banks with strong growth potential and stable state-owned banks to capitalize on both performance recovery and high dividend opportunities [2]

本报记者 杨笑寒 险资举牌步履不停。近日，长城人寿保险股份有限公司（以下简称"长城人寿"）公告举牌秦皇岛港股份有限公司（以下简 称"秦港股份"）。这意味着年内险资举牌总次数已达到16次，相较去年同期大增。 受访专家表示，今年险资举牌频次增加的目的主要是，希望通过权益法核算平滑会计利润波动，降低报表波动。展望未 来，险资举牌行为有望持续增加。 7家险企共举牌13家公司 险资举牌是指保险公司持有或者与其关联方及一致行动人共同持有一家上市公司5%股权，以及之后每增持达到5%时需依 规披露的行为。 长城人寿公告显示，参与本次举牌交易前，长城人寿持有秦港股份股票2.75亿股，占其总股本比例为4.9218%。近日，其 买入秦港股份股票440万股，共计持有秦港股份股票约2.79亿股，占该上市公司总股本的5.0005%，触发举牌线。 具体来看，本次连续交易为长城人寿在二级市场买入上市公司股票，资金来源为自有资金账户资金和传统账户保险责任准 备金。参与举牌交易后，以2025年6月16日秦港股份H股收盘价2.29港元/股和A股3.21元/股为基准，长城人寿持有秦港股份股票 市值约为6.10亿元人民币（H股持仓市值按交易日参考汇率 ...

群益投信董事长Andrew Tsai表示，联电股价"受益于本地高股息ETF资金流入，被动基金优先考虑收益率而非基本面"。联电股价涨势在6月24日除息日前进 一步加强。 不过，有分析师认为，联电股价已超过分析师平均12个月目标价，且卖空比例升至约9%的历史高位，其优异表现可能难以持续。 高股息策略推动资金流向分化 台湾高股息ETF管理资产规模超过440亿美元，成为影响台湾股市资金配置的重要力量。这些ETF根据股息收益率进行配置，优先选择分红慷慨的公司。 联电作为台湾第二大半导体制造商，凭借超过6%的股息收益率成为高股息ETF的重要标的。相比之下，全球最大晶圆代工厂台积电的股息收益率不足2%， 未能获得这些ETF的大量配置。 凭借"高股息"，联电备受投资者青睐。 受到中国台湾地区高股息ETF资金流向影响，台积电今年股价表现逊色于规模较小的竞争对手联电。联电凭借超过6%的股息收益率获得被动资金青睐，而 台积电因股息率不足2%被边缘化。 联电股价今年上涨10%，台积电则下跌1%。台湾三大高股息ETF均将联电列为前十大持股，这些产品今年吸引约100亿美元资金流入，成为亚太地区表现最 佳的股票ETF之一。 分析师指出，联 ...

从中证港股通高股息投资指数持仓的市场板块来看，香港证券交易所占比100.00%。 数据统计显示，中证港股通高股息投资指数近一个月上涨3.78%，近三个月上涨6.30%，年至今上涨 10.20%。 据了解，中证港股通高股息投资指数从符合港股通条件的香港上市公司证券中选取 30只流动性好、连 续分红、股息率高的上市公司证券作为指数样本，采用股息率加权，以反映港股通范围内连续分红且股 息率较高的上市公司证券的整体表现。该指数以2014年11月14日为基日，以3000.0点为基点。 金融界6月20日消息，上证指数低开震荡，中证港股通高股息投资指数 (港股通高股息，930914)上涨 0.99%，报4722.75点，成交额241.54亿元。 资料显示，指数样本每年调整一次，样本调整实施时间为每年12月的第二个星期五的下一交易日。定期 调整指数样本时，每次调整数量比例一般不超过30%。权重因子随样本股定期调整而调整，调整时间与 指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。当特殊情况下将对 指数进行临时调整。当样本退市时，将其从指数样本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的 处理，参照计 ...

2025年6月15-17日，第八届亚太区贵金属峰会（APPMC）在新加坡举办。国投瑞银基金总经理王彦杰出 席峰会，并在会议上发表精彩观点： 我们对2025年A股市场持乐观态度，尤其看好下半年的结构性机会，中国股市有机会在未来一段时间领先 海外市场表现。目前，虽然全球宏观经济仍面临多重挑战，贸易摩擦带来的不确定性仍然存在，但自 2024年以来A股市场融资属性明显弱化，长期以来因股东回报稀释，造成股价表现不如预期的制约因素不 复存在，为下一阶段估值修复提供了有力支撑。 在一系列金融支持政策引导下，2024年A股上市公司净融资规模大幅收缩，从2023年的1万亿元降至2024 年的1249亿元。上市公司回购规模扩大与净融资规模收缩双管齐下，不仅展现了企业对自身发展前景的 坚定信心，更重要的是，由于回购采用集中竞价方式，将有效提振股价，改善市场流动性和交易活跃 度。值得关注的是，2024年10月，人民银行联合证监会、金融监管总局推出"股票回购增持再贷款"政策工 具，通过优惠利率支持上市公司及主要股东进行回购增持。该政策在自有资金比例要求、贷款期限及信 用贷款等方面实现重大突破，大幅降低了企业融资成本。与此相辅相成的是， ...

2025年6月15-17日，第八届亚太区贵金属峰会（APPMC）在新加坡举办。国投瑞银基金总 经理王彦杰出席峰会，并在会议上发表精彩观点： 图：国投瑞银基金总经理王彦杰 我们对2025年A股市场持乐观态度，尤其看好下半年的结构性机会，中国股市有机会在未来 一段时间领先海外市场表现。目前，虽然全球宏观经济仍面临多重挑战，贸易摩擦带来的不 确定性仍然存在，但自2024年以来A股市场融资属性明显弱化，长期以来因股东回报稀释， 造成股价表现不如预期的制约因素不复存在，为下一阶段估值修复提供了有力支撑。 在一系列金融支持政策引导下，2024年A股上市公司净融资规模大幅收缩，从2023年的1万 亿元降至2024年的1249亿元。上市公司回购规模扩大与净融资规模收缩双管齐下，不仅展现 了企业对自身发展前景的坚定信心，更重要的是，由于回购采用集中竞价方式，将有效提振 股价，改善市场流动性和交易活跃度。值得关注的是，2024年10月，人民银行联合证监会、 金融监管总局推出"股票回购增持再贷款"政策工具，通过优惠利率支持上市公司及主要股东进 行回购增持。该政策在自有资金比例要求、贷款期限及信用贷款等方面实现重大突破，大幅 降低了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hua Tai Pai Rui Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890) has reached a record high in scale, reflecting strong investor demand for stable assets in the current market environment characterized by low interest rates and volatility [1][4]. Group 1: ETF Performance and Scale - As of June 20, the ETF rose by 0.42% to a price of 1.182 yuan, with a trading volume of 1.30 billion yuan [1]. - Year-to-date, the ETF has increased by 5.16%, and its 250-day increase is nearly 10% [1]. - The scale of the ETF reached 180.89 billion yuan on June 19, marking a 31.5% increase from 137.495 billion yuan on December 31, 2024 [1]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the scale has grown by 4.3 billion yuan, positioning it as a "fund magnet" in a volatile market [1]. Group 2: Investment Appeal - The ETF's high dividend yield of 6.21% and a low volatility characteristic make it an attractive option for investors seeking stable returns in a declining interest rate environment [2][3]. - The 10-year government bond yield has dropped to 1.64%, creating a significant yield spread of 3.96% compared to the ETF's dividend yield, placing it in the 93.35th percentile over the past decade [2]. Group 3: Underlying Factors Supporting Growth - The ETF has demonstrated a three-year annualized return of 13.59% with a maximum drawdown of -13.61%, showcasing its stability during market fluctuations [3]. - The ETF tracks the CSI Dividend Low Volatility Index, which employs a dual-factor stock selection strategy focusing on high dividends and low volatility, with significant representation from the financial sector [3]. - Regulatory support for increased dividend payouts from listed companies has bolstered the ETF's appeal, with many of its constituent stocks exhibiting strong dividend capabilities [4]. - The ETF's off-market linked funds have achieved monthly dividends for 21 consecutive months, making them among the most frequent dividend-paying ETF linked funds in the market [4].

截至2025年6月20日收盘，中证银行指数(399986)上涨0.59%，成分股厦门银行(601187)上涨3.04%，杭州 银行(600926)上涨2.75%，民生银行(600016)上涨2.56%，郑州银行(002936)上涨2.49%，兴业银行 (601166)上涨2.29%。银行ETF(512800)半日收涨1.01%。拉长时间看，截至目前，银行ETF年内累计上 涨超14%。 流动性方面，银行ETF换手3.82%，半日成交3.60亿元。拉长时间看，截至6月19日，银行ETF近1周日均 成交5.04亿元，居可比基金第一。 华泰证券认为，基本面和资金面共同驱动下，看好优质区域行机会。优质城商行有望率先突破1倍PB， 进而打开其他优质区域行估值提升空间。此前可转债强赎价附近博弈阻力加剧的相关银行，近期触发强 赎后进一步打开估值提升空间。重庆地区在国家级战略加持下，近年来发展动能强劲，当地部分银行有 望持续享受区域红利。此外，部分区域行估值仍处低位（06/16），性价比较为突出，关注补涨机会。 顺势而起，攻守兼备！看好银行板块配置性价比的投资者可以关注银行ETF（512800）及其联接基金 （A类：24001 ...