Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that while gold is often regarded as a safe-haven asset, its risk-hedging capabilities are not absolute and are influenced by various market conditions and investor behavior [2][7]. - Gold has historically demonstrated stability during crises, such as wars and economic downturns, due to its scarcity and physical properties, which contribute to its demand as a tangible asset [3][4]. - The negative correlation between gold and the US dollar enhances gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, particularly during periods of dollar weakness [4]. Group 2 - Despite its reputation, gold is not immune to market volatility; during liquidity crises, investors may sell gold along with other assets, leading to price declines [4][5]. - Gold lacks yield generation, making it less attractive during periods of economic growth when investors may prefer higher-return assets like stocks and bonds [5]. - Market supply and demand fluctuations significantly impact gold prices, with changes in jewelry demand and ETF inflows/outflows being critical factors [5][6]. Group 3 - Liquidity risks in the gold market can affect trading conditions, with wider bid-ask spreads during extreme market conditions, complicating transactions [6]. - Investor behavior and market psychology play a crucial role in gold price movements, often driven by short-term speculation rather than fundamental factors [6]. - Gold's role in a diversified investment portfolio is to reduce overall risk, but over-reliance on gold can lead to insufficient returns, especially in bull markets [7].

Group 1 - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. unexpectedly rose to 60.5 in June, surpassing market expectations of 58.0, ending a five-month decline and signaling greater economic resilience than anticipated [1][3] - The rebound in consumer confidence is primarily driven by improved evaluations of the current job market and the gradual absorption of tariff impacts, which are providing support for consumer spending [1][3] Group 2 - Financial markets reacted swiftly to the data, with major U.S. stock indices continuing to rise; the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.72%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.81%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.93% [4] - The rise in consumer confidence is interpreted as a sign that domestic demand may help the economy avoid recession, with technology and discretionary consumer sectors leading the gains [4] Group 3 - Despite the current rebound in consumer confidence, the market remains cautious about the U.S. economic outlook, with key data such as the FHFA house price index and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index yet to be released [5] - Goldman Sachs suggests that the rebound in consumer confidence may be temporary, citing rising credit card debt default rates and the resumption of student loan repayments as potential pressures on future consumer spending [5] Group 4 - The upcoming non-farm payroll report and core PCE data will be critical in determining whether the improvement in consumer confidence can be sustained [7] - If employment growth slows or inflation falls more than expected, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to signal clearer interest rate cuts, potentially increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [7]

近期中东局势急剧升温,美军空袭伊朗核设施、伊朗议会表决关闭霍尔木兹海峡,全球金融市场神经紧绷, 地缘冲突通常是推动黄金飙升的经典催化剂,然而这一次,金价却罕见保持沉默。与此同时,铂金却强势上 涨,引发投资者对贵金属市场分化逻辑的高度关注,在全球宏观变量剧烈变动之际,黄金是否正处于酝酿拐 点的临界点?而美国深度"下场",是否也在重新定义国际避险资产的价值逻辑? 与以往局部冲突不同,本轮中东紧张局势出现"质变"信号——美国已直接卷入,这一动作不仅重新定义了 地缘风险,也深刻影响了全球资本的流向,美国经济面临结构性挑战。通胀顽固不下,增长动能减弱,财政赤 字持续扩大,市场对美债的信心正在动摇,评级机构的负面预警、美债收益率的剧烈波动,均是资金对美债 信用"打折"的体现。 美元虽在初期受避险需求走强,但从中期看,美联储若释放鸽派信号,美元将承压下行,黄金因此具备结构性 上行基础。大量避险与实物配置资金,已悄然流出美元资产,流向黄金等硬资产,因此美国下场,不仅是军事 参与,更是全球金融定价权的一次再校准。黄金作为"无主权信用资产",将在这种信用裂变中迎来重估,尤 其在美国经济拐点真正确立之后,金价有望进入新一轮上涨通道 ...

Group 1: Global Gold Market Dynamics - The gold market has experienced significant volatility since 2025, with spot gold prices reaching $3,362.39 per ounce as of June 23, reflecting an over 8% increase since the beginning of the year [1] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the Middle East situation and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, have driven investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - Central banks globally continue to increase gold purchases, with the World Gold Council reporting a total global gold demand of 1,206 tons in Q1 2025, a 1% year-on-year increase [1] Group 2: Investment Risks and Challenges - Key pain points in the gold market include high trading costs and lack of transparency, with traditional platforms often charging multiple fees that can increase costs significantly [4] - Liquidity issues are prevalent, with lengthy withdrawal processes and complicated audits preventing timely adjustments during extreme market conditions [4] - Regulatory scrutiny has intensified, with a 45% year-on-year increase in the number of non-compliant platforms identified by the Hong Kong Gold and Silver Exchange [4] Group 3: Jinsheng Precious Metals' Competitive Advantages - Jinsheng Precious Metals emphasizes compliance and technology to create a robust investment platform, being a member of the Hong Kong Gold and Silver Exchange [5] - The company has established a full compliance system, ensuring transparency through unique transaction codes for trades over 0.1 lots, allowing real-time verification [6] - The platform offers a millisecond-level trading experience and smart risk control mechanisms, significantly reducing the risk of slippage and enhancing user experience [7] Group 4: Cost Optimization and Service Ecosystem - Jinsheng Precious Metals employs a "zero commission + ultra-low spread" strategy, reducing overall trading costs by over 30% for high-frequency traders [8] - The platform has a dedicated customer service team providing 24/7 support, ensuring quick responses and assistance for both novice and experienced investors [8] - The introduction of a "spread rebate" mechanism allows for immediate cash back after trades, further enhancing capital efficiency [8] Group 5: Strategic Investment Approaches - Investors can leverage key market events, such as Federal Reserve meetings, to anticipate gold price movements and adjust positions accordingly [9] - Long-term investors benefit from the platform's low fee structure and flexible contract designs, which can reduce overall costs by an average of 15% [9] - Short-term traders can utilize tools like the "volatility capture tool" to achieve average returns of 8% within specific price ranges [9] Group 6: Conclusion on Compliance and Efficiency - In the context of the 2025 gold "super cycle," choosing a platform with a strong compliance background and technological advantages is becoming a consensus among rational investors [10] - Jinsheng Precious Metals' unique features, such as rapid fund withdrawal and zero commission, align closely with investor needs, providing a stable return in volatile markets [10]

机构观点凸显多空博弈。连平等经济学家指出，此前巨大涨幅积累的获利了结压力可能引发调整，但各国央行增持黄金及"去美元化"趋势将限制下行空间。 花旗则预警金价或在三季度触顶（3100-3500区间），2026年下半年可能回落至2500-2700美元。值得关注的是，新兴市场持续购金为市场提供支撑，中国、 印度等国官方储备多元化需求仍是长期利多因素。 晚间重点关注美国6月PMI数据及美联储官员讲话，数据若超预期可能强化鹰派预期。建议投资者控制仓位，短线可依托3350-3380区间波段操作，中长线多 头需耐心等待技术筑底与政策转向的共振信号。黄金作为终极避险资产的价值未改，但阶段性调整正是优化持仓结构的契机。 地缘冲突的短暂提振难掩市场深层压力。尽管中东局势升级引发早盘避险买盘，但伊朗核设施实际损失有限，且美联储鹰派信号持续发酵，美元指数跳涨压 制了黄金吸引力。同时，投资者对美联储降息预期出现分歧——理事沃勒此前暗示"7月可能降息"的鸽派言论曾支撑金价，但上周美联储点阵图显示2026- 2027年仅各降息一次，政策路径偏鹰派令无息资产黄金承压。 技术面释放回调延续信号。金价自上周高点3450美元已回调约3%，日线MAC ...

资产配置与金融工程 证券研究报告 地缘风险下的资产再平衡 ——大类资产周报（20250616-20250622） 分析师：朱定豪 SAC执业资格证书编码: S0020521120002 邮箱：zhudinghao@gyzq.com.cn 2025年6月23日 分析师：汤静文 SAC执业资格证书编码: S0020524060001 邮箱：tangjingwen@gyzq.com.cn 联系人：黄雯瑜 邮箱：huangwenyu@gyzq.com.cn 摘要 一、本周大类资产交易主线 地缘冲突主导能源走强，但避险资产分化，中东局势升级推升原油（布油+2.09%）、天然气（+10.72%）大涨，霍尔木兹 海峡风险溢价强化能源趋势，黄金逆势跌1.98%，因美元走强及降息预期推迟压制无息资产；A股承压但大盘抗跌，高股息 防御占优；债市走强，流动性改善驱动杠杆策略。商品时序动量强化，截面多空策略受益于能源强/黑色弱格局，集运指数 大跌10.66%，需求证伪压制运价。美国经济意外指数跌至-23.3，美元微涨，人民币抗压（CNH微升），政策护航对冲外部 风险。 二、大类资产配置建议 债市（6）：资金宽松+情绪乐观支撑杠杆和久 ...

这两年，黄金总是重复以两种方式登上热搜：大涨与大跌。 进入6月，黄金登上热搜的趋向更加明显——大跌。在反复震荡的金价中，不少靠黄金避险属性获利的投资者，纷纷感叹"避险"变"风险"。他们一边期待 着金价的回温，一边也忍不住将视线投向其他投资品。 白银、黄金则在此时拉开了领涨的序幕。 6月23日，截至成稿，Wind数据显示，伦敦现货白银价格达到36.11美元/盎司，现货铂金涨超2%，报价1291.4美元/盎司。 这并非银价和铂金首次崭露头角。 5月下旬以来，白银、铂金等贵金属开始活跃。白银突破关键的36美元/盎司关口，刷新13年来的最高纪录，年内累计最大涨幅接近25%。铂金年内的累计 涨幅已超过36%，高于黄金的年内涨幅。 （网友评论/图） （社交平台网友分享/图） 另一方面，关于铂金、白银是否能成为"黄金平替"，不少投资者仍然表示不看好。 120万元购入铂金增值超7万元 一方面，已有胆大的投资者看准时机，一头扎入贵金属投资中。 据经济观察报报道，在4月初，在铂金价格230元/克左右，就有投资者买入了价值约120万元的铂金板料和铂金条（1000克铂金板料2块，克价233.7元； 100克铂金条30块，克价238. ...

新华财经上海6月23日电（葛佳明） 中东地缘紧张局势的骤然升温，伊朗议会赞成关闭霍尔木兹海峡的 消息引发全球能源市场巨震，油运运费大幅攀升，推动原油、天然气、甲醇等重点能源品种价格为地缘 政治风险定价。 多数分析师接受新华财经采访时表示，中东局势或难以迅速降温，霍尔木兹海峡是中东地区重要油品出 口通道，短期冲突导致阶段性海运贸易受阻，使得各类资产再度上演剧烈波动。 通过复盘1970年以来中东地区重大冲突对市场的影响可以发现，在避险资产表现中黄金较美元表现更 优，对原油的短期影响最为直接，航运成本面临重构，液化天然气及甲醇市场也将受到显著影响。 油运运费大幅攀升 伊朗作为能源输出国，地缘冲突或对全球能源供应造成明显扰动。 霍尔木兹海峡是世界最重要的石油和天然气运输通道。美国能源信息署（EIA）的数据显示称，每天约 2000万桶石油通过霍尔木兹海峡运出。2024年和2025年第一季度，通过霍尔木兹海峡运输的石油占全球 海运石油贸易总量的四分之一以上，约占全球石油和石油产品消费总量的五分之一。2024年全球约五分 之一的液化天然气贸易也通过霍尔木兹海峡。 上周，伊以冲突升级已经导致船只开始避开霍尔木兹海峡。全球最大 ...

【导读】市场回暖，低开高走 中国基金报记者 泰勒 兄弟姐妹们啊，今天的市场低开高走，情绪回暖，一起看看发生了什么事情。 A股低开高走 6月23日，亚洲市场早盘遭遇些许恐慌情绪， 中东战火蔓延以及石油供应中断将对东亚石油进口国造成冲击 ，但 随后情绪转 暖， 股市投资者似乎并不太担心。 A股市场全天低开高走，三大指数集体上涨。截至 收盘沪指涨0.65%，深成指涨0.43%，创业板指涨0.39%。 银行股继续走强，工商银行、建设银行等多股创新高。 为何今天市场低开高走？有分析指出，美国加入以色列和伊朗之间的战争，乍看之下似乎是一个会引发市场暴跌的地缘政治热 点。然而，投资者对此次局势升级基本不以为意，许多策略师认为冲突是可控的，甚至对某些风险资产而言可能是利好。 市场共4446只个股上涨，84只个股涨停，844只个股下跌。 | 880005 涨跌家数 | | | --- | --- | | 其中 涨停 | 84 | | 涨幅 > 7% | 150 | | 涨幅 5-7% | 163 | | 涨幅 3-5% | 629 | | 涨幅 0-3% | 3504 | | 跌幅 0-3% | 776 | | 跌幅 3-5% ...

盛宝银行驻新加坡首席投资策略师Charu Chanana表示："市场目前将美国对伊朗的袭击视为可控事件， 而非全面战争的开始。避险资金流入有限，说明投资者认为这只是一次性升级，不会干扰全球石油供应 或贸易。""市场的反应可能不是因为冲突升级本身，而是对长期不确定性的缓解预期。如果伊朗的核能 力被显著削弱，部分投资者可能将其解读为'伪装下的降温'——是地缘政治风险的减少，而非增加。但 话虽如此，若伊朗采取报复或威胁霍尔木兹海峡运输安全，市场情绪将迅速转向，并迫使投资者重新定 价地缘风险。" 道明证券驻新加坡高级亚太利率策略师Prashant Newnaha表示："至少可以说，市场对对周末事件的反应 是温和的。价格走势暗示市场预期这是一次短暂的冲突，冲突升级最终将走向冲突缓和。" 智通财经APP获悉，随着全球投资者正屏息观望伊朗是否会对美国袭击其核设施进行报复，全球股市周 一下滑，油价一度触及五个月高位，美元走强。 尽管中东局势在过去这个周末升级，但市场反应迄今仍然克制，投资者仍处于观望状态。以下是一些市 场分析师对此事件的评论。 澳大利亚联邦银行外汇策略师Carol Kong表示："到目前为止，油价对不断升级的 ...