Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that gold stocks in the Hong Kong market have generally risen, driven by an increase in gold prices following comments from US President Trump, with expectations for further price increases in the future [1] - Gold prices surged nearly $30, reaching above $3,380 per ounce, as gold is traditionally viewed as a safe haven during periods of political and economic uncertainty [1] - Gold prices have increased nearly 30% this year due to escalating trade wars, geopolitical conflicts, and central bank purchases, with Fidelity International predicting prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by the end of next year [1] Group 2 - Specific gold stocks that saw significant increases include China Gold International (up 3.48%), Zhaojin Mining (up 3.05%), and Shandong Gold (up 3.09%) [2] - Other notable performers include Tongguan Gold (up 2.09%), Lingbao Gold (up 1.59%), and Chifeng Jilong Gold (up 0.16%) [2]

铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货20510，基差-50，贴水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周增1737吨至117527吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向下运行；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，多空交织，铝价震荡运行. 沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 | 地方 地方 | ...

消息上，周二，在美国总统特朗普接受采访后，黄金拉升近30美元，一度冲上3380美元关口上方。长期 以来，黄金被视为政治和经济不确定时期的避风港，在低利率环境下通常表现良好。 港股黄金股普遍上涨，其中，中国黄金国际、招金矿业、山东黄金均涨超3%，潼关黄金涨2%，灵宝黄 金涨1.6%，紫金矿业、赤峰黄金跟涨。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 ▽ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 02099 | 中国黄金国际 | 71.300 | 3.48% | | 01818 | 招金矿业 | 21.640 | 3.05% | | 01787 | 山东黄金 | 28.000 | 3.09% | | 00340 | 滝关黄金 | 1.950 | 2.09% | | 03330 | 灵宝黄金 | 10.830 | 1.59% | | 02899 | 三十四年薪 | 22.220 | 0.91% | | 06693 | 赤峰黄金 | 25.200 | 0.16% | 由于贸易战和地缘政治冲突不断升级，以及央行的买入和对降息的押注，金价今年上涨了近30%。投资 者和分析师预计金价还会进一步上涨，富达 ...

Core Viewpoint - The UK government is likely to breach its fiscal rules unless it announces tax increases or spending cuts in the upcoming budget plan later this year [1] Group 1: Economic Forecast - The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) predicts that inflation in the UK may remain high throughout the year [1] - NIESR expects the Bank of England to lower borrowing costs on Thursday and to cut interest rates again before the end of the year [1] Group 2: Fiscal Situation - NIESR forecasts that tax revenues will fall short of regular expenditures by £41.2 billion for the fiscal year ending in March 2030, violating one of the government's fiscal rules [1] - Stephen Millard, NIESR's Deputy Director for Macroeconomics, stated that the Chancellor of the Exchequer faces a challenging situation and will need to implement tax increases or spending cuts, or both, in the budget to comply with fiscal rules [1]

Group 1: Employment Data - The U.S. Labor Department reported that July's non-farm payrolls increased by significantly less than expected, marking the lowest figure in nine months [1] - The revisions for May and June showed a downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs, with the new figures for those months being only 19,000 and 14,000 respectively, indicating a near standstill in job growth [1] - The unemployment rate remained stable, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points in July, suggesting that despite low job additions, the labor market is still balanced [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at the end of July, but for the first time in 32 years, two board members voted against the decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [2] - The internal division within the Fed was highlighted after the release of the July employment data, with some officials describing the job market as still robust despite the recent weak data [2][3] - The Fed's decision-making process is complicated by differing interpretations of the current economic conditions, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive analysis of the labor market [2] Group 3: Labor Market Dynamics - The current balance in the U.S. labor market is characterized by low hiring and low layoffs, primarily due to a decline in labor force participation rates [4] - Labor force participation has been decreasing since May, with a total decline of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year by July, reaching the lowest level since November 2022 [4] - The number of long-term unemployed individuals has risen to 1.83 million, the highest level since 2017, indicating a growing concern about job quality and market dynamics [4][5] Group 4: Economic Indicators and Inflation - The second quarter saw a decline in the growth rate of final domestic purchases to 1.2%, the weakest level since the end of 2022, raising concerns about future employment stability [5] - The PCE price index showed a rebound in inflation, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.1% in Q2, compared to 3.7% in Q1, indicating that inflationary pressures are still present [5] - There are indications that inflation may decrease again due to weak employment and reduced consumer demand, suggesting that timely interest rate cuts by the Fed could help stabilize the economy [5]

最新的关税公告大体符合高盛的预期，有助于减少政策不确定性。再加上美联储可能于9月开始进一步 降息，这支持我们对亚洲股市持积极看法。 高盛预计MSCI亚太指数未来12个月以美元计价的价格回报率为9%，并继续看好北亚市场。然而，区域 股市已大幅反弹，且已消化了积极的宏观经济发展。估值偏高，8-9月通常是区域股市回报率最低的两 个月。因此，我们建议通过买入看跌期权或看跌期权价差来增加下行保护，以缓冲适度回调的风险。这 将帮助投资者保持参与度，并为历史上表现最强劲的第四季度做好准备。维持对北亚(中国、日本、韩 国)和部分周期性股票的增持评级，并看好能带来超额收益的关键主题。 全球宏观：特朗普宣布提高关税税率 亚洲股票展望：走势向好但存在短暂下滑风险 随着劳动力市场格局的变化，高盛预计市场将消化美联储更早、更深、更快降息的可能性。这对日元尤 为重要，日元将受益于衰退担忧加剧以及收益率曲线牛陡平时套期成本的变化，因此高盛现在建议投资 者做空美元/日元。尽管承认当前交易环境艰难，但高盛认为本周的价格和持仓调整为重新参与美元下 行论点提供了有吸引力的入场点，就业报告也支持这一观点。 上周五的就业报告公布后，美国市场对周三联邦 ...

【机构分析】 汇丰银行指出，预计泰国央行将在下周下调政策利率，这一决定基于此前会议纪要中透露的降息意向。 此次降息主要取决于合适的时机选择以及全球贸易政策的进一步明晰化。泰国对美国出口商品被征收 19%的关税，略高于泰国央行先前预测的18%，但与印尼、马来西亚和菲律宾相同，且低于越南的 20%。因此，在对美出口方面，东南亚新兴市场国家间并不存在显著的竞争优势或劣势。 三菱日联金融集团表示，鉴于日本通胀前景持续升温，建议日本央行在即将召开的下一次政策会议上慎 重考虑加息事宜。预计日本央行在9月或10月进行加息的可能性较高，且明确指出在这两个月份采取加 息措施均为"适宜之举"。尽管日本央行面临加息的压力，若未来几个月的经济数据呈现疲软态势，央行 行长植田和男及其政策委员会可能会选择维持当前政策，将加息时间推迟至明年3月前后。 德国商业银行分析师表示，若瑞士与美国能在本周四的最后期限前达成贸易协议，瑞士法郎预计将出现 小幅回升。目前，若未能达成协议，瑞士出口至美国的商品将面临高达39%的关税，对瑞士经济构成重 大压力。为避免关税冲击，瑞士官员可能会"大幅提升对美方的报价"，尽管最终协议的成本将远高于最 初预期，但双 ...

面对经济数据持续偏弱、就业市场悄然转凉，美联储内部"鸽声"再起。旧金山联储主席戴利的最新表态 格外引人注目：她认为降息的时机正在逼近，年内降息次数更可能多于两次。对于一个以"中性"立场著 称的联储高官来说，这番话无疑释放了一个非常清晰的信号——货币政策的转折点或许比市场原先预期 得更快到来。 Vatee外汇从戴利的表述看，她仍然保留对通胀反扑的警惕。她提到，"如果劳动力市场重新回暖，通胀 压力可能卷土重来，届时降息节奏应更为克制。"这表明联储仍将保持"数据依赖"而非"路径依赖"的政 策思维，不会预设次数、也不会提前承诺终点。这种策略虽然避免了给市场过度承诺，但同样加大了短 线波动的风险。 戴利讲话后，利率期货市场的隐含定价迅速调整，9月降息的概率从不足40%跃升至接近60%，甚至有 交易员开始押注12月前最多三次降息。相比之下，美元指数出现小幅回落，美债收益率曲线进一步趋 平，反映出市场对经济前景的谨慎甚至悲观态度。 这次表态还可能引发一个更深层次的市场疑问：美联储是否已经意识到软着陆的窗口正在收窄，甚至已 经错过？如果就业市场的真实疲弱远超预期，而通胀放缓只是表象，维持当前利率水平不仅无助于抑制 价格，还可 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut probability for September is nearing certainty, with market expectations rising to approximately 95% after recent employment data [5][6] - Global stock markets experienced an uptick, with U.S. stock futures rising over 0.2%, and the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index increasing by 0.7%, led by South Korea [1][2][7] - Major European indices opened higher, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.6%, and the German DAX also rising by 0.6% [2] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury yields saw a slight increase, with the benchmark 10-year yield rising by over 1 basis point, and the 2-year yield increasing by more than 2 basis points [2] - Gold prices remained stable, hovering around two-week highs, while silver prices dipped slightly [3] - Oil prices stabilized after three consecutive days of decline, supported by Trump's threat of imposing 100% secondary sanctions on Russian oil buyers [4] Group 3 - Despite the recent highs in U.S. stock markets, major Wall Street firms, including Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank, warned of potential short-term corrections in the S&P 500 index due to high valuations and weakening economic data [8]

Core Viewpoint - Trump's aggressive actions in response to weak employment data have raised concerns about political interference in independent institutions, undermining market confidence in U.S. economic data and increasing uncertainty premiums [1][7]. Group 1: Criticism of the Federal Reserve - Trump has intensified his criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, labeling him a "stubborn idiot" and blaming him for the economic risks due to delayed interest rate cuts [3]. - The market's focus on the Federal Reserve's policies has heightened due to Trump's strong stance against Powell [3]. Group 2: Employment Data Impact - The July employment report revealed a downward revision of 258,000 jobs for May and June, the largest two-month adjustment since 1968 outside of a recession, leading to significant market reactions [4]. - Following the employment data release, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut surged, with investors nearly certain of a 25 basis point cut next month [4]. Group 3: Political Interference Concerns - Trump's dismissal of Labor Statistics Bureau Chief McEntarfer, based on unfounded accusations of data manipulation, has sparked backlash from economists and analysts, who view it as blatant political interference [7][8]. - The integrity of independent institutions like the Labor Statistics Bureau is now under scrutiny, potentially shaking the foundation of trust in U.S. economic data [8]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The market's shift in expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts reflects the impact of employment data and Trump's interventions, leading to increased uncertainty [11]. - The upcoming release of U.S. ISM services PMI data and statements from Federal Reserve officials will be critical in assessing the future direction of the dollar and market confidence [12].