字抬高以及美元信用边际受损仍利多金价。沪金2508合约关注区间：750-780元/克；沪银2508合约关注区 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 间：8500-8800元/千克。 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 贵金属产业日报 2025-06-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 773.94 | 2.08 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8726 | -13 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 145732 | -1611 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 336670 | -5181 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 136727 ...

2025/6/25 09:57 【国富期货早间看点】Gapki 4 304 Anec 6 1499 20250625 【国富期货早间看点】Gapki印尼棕榈油4月末库存为304万吨 Anec 预计巴西大豆6月出口达1499万吨 20250625 2025年06月25日 07:28 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日流跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油09(BMD) | 3991.00 | -3. 37 | 0. 13 | | 布伦特09(ICE) | 66. 84 | -4. 14 | -0. 40 | | 美原油08(NYMEX) | 65. 01 | -3. 30 | -0. 37 | | 美豆11(CBOT) | 1037.00 | -0. 91 | -0. 43 | | 美豆箱12(CBOT) | 295.00 | -0.57 | -0. 57 | | 美豆油12(CBOT) | 52. 66 | -1.83 | -0. 43 | | | 最新价 | 流跌幅(%) | 十日漆跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | ...

近期，以色列和伊朗达成停火协议，这一消息对黄金市场产生了显著影响，金价短期走势呈现出震荡走弱的态势。以下是对该现象的详细分析： 停火削弱黄金避险需求 黄金作为传统的避险资产，其价格走势往往与地缘政治紧张局势密切相关。在以色列和伊朗冲突期间，市场避险情绪升温，投资者纷纷买入黄金以对冲风 险，推动金价上涨。然而，随着双方停火协议的达成，市场对地缘政治风险的担忧有所缓解，避险需求下降，导致黄金的吸引力减弱，价格出现回调。 例如，当地时间 6 月 23 日，据央视新闻报道，美国总统特朗普称以色列和伊朗已完全同意全面停火，受此消息影响，黄金价格出现波动。COMEX 黄金 盘中巨震，尾盘走低，报收 3384.4 美元 / 盎司，跌幅 0.04%。 美联储政策预期影响黄金走势 美联储的货币政策对黄金价格有着重要影响。市场对美联储未来利率走向的预期会影响美元的走势，进而间接影响以美元计价的黄金价格。目前市场预期 美联储可能在 7 月开始降息，但这种预期存在不确定性。 如果美联储维持鹰派立场，推迟降息甚至进一步加息，将推动美元指数攀升，使得黄金承压。因为美元走强会使以其他货币计价的黄金更昂贵，抑制全球 买需。此外，高利率环境使 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas geopolitical risks may intensify short - term market volatility and disrupt risk preferences. In the long run, the weak - dollar pattern continues. One should be vigilant about volatility jumps, pay attention to non - dollar assets, and maintain a strategic allocation of resource products such as gold. Domestic economic stability is maintained, and domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. The logic of policy - driven growth will be strengthened in the second half of the year [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: In June, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50% for the fourth consecutive time, with a more cautious view on the second - half rate - cut expectation. In May, the US retail sales month - on - month rate dropped significantly from 0.1% to - 0.9%, the industrial output month - on - month rate fell by 0.2%, and the June New York Fed manufacturing index was - 16. The US economic fundamentals face geopolitical risks and uncertainties in economic and trade prospects, and rising oil prices may prompt the Fed to issue hawkish signals [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: The Lujiazui Financial Forum announced multiple financial support policies, strengthening policy expectations for the second half of the year. As of now, 162 billion yuan of "national subsidy" funds have been allocated to local governments, and the remaining funds will be disbursed in an orderly manner. In May, fixed - asset investment continued to expand, manufacturing investment grew rapidly, service industry growth accelerated, and the decline in the year - on - year prices of commercial residential buildings in cities of all tiers continued to narrow. The added value of industrial enterprises above the national scale increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. The service production index increased by 6.2% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 reached 4.1326 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4% [6]. - **Asset Views**: The domestic economy maintains a stable pattern, and domestic assets offer mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market volatility, while the long - term weak - dollar pattern persists. Attention should be paid to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Macro**: Overseas stagflation trading cools down, and the long - and short - term allocation ideas diverge. Domestically, there may be moderate reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts, and the fiscal policy will implement established measures in the short term. Overseas, the inflation - expectation structure flattens, economic growth expectations improve, and stagflation trading cools down [7]. - **Finance**: The bullish sentiment for stocks and bonds has declined. Stock index futures are experiencing the release of crowded funds, stock index options need to wait for a decline in volatility, and the bullish sentiment in the bond market has weakened. All are expected to fluctuate [7]. - **Precious Metals**: With the improvement of risk appetite, precious metals are undergoing short - term adjustments. The short - term adjustment of gold and silver will continue due to better - than - expected Sino - US negotiations [7]. - **Shipping**: The sentiment has declined, and attention should be paid to the recovery of the loading rate in June. The market for container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate, with a focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: Due to the escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict, coal and coke drive the black - building materials market to strengthen. Most products such as steel, iron ore, coke, and others are expected to fluctuate, while soda ash is expected to decline slightly [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Amid the coexistence of low inventory and weak demand expectations, non - ferrous metals will continue to fluctuate. Some products like zinc and nickel are expected to decline slightly [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The US may intervene in the Israel - Iran conflict, and crude oil will maintain high volatility. Most energy - chemical products are expected to fluctuate, with some products like crude oil, asphalt, and others expected to decline slightly, while some like ethylene glycol and short - fiber are expected to rise slightly [9]. - **Agriculture**: After substantial progress in Sino - US negotiations, the sentiment is positive for the cotton - price rebound. Most agricultural products are expected to fluctuate, with some products like oils and fats expected to decline slightly [9].

盾博dbg发现在全球经济充满不确定性的当下，美联储的货币政策走向始终是金融市场关注的焦点。堪 萨斯联储主席施密德周二的一番表态，为市场理解美联储的决策逻辑提供了新的视角。他明确指出，在 决定是否进一步降息之前，美联储有充足的时间来研究进口关税上升对物价和经济增长产生的影响，这 一观点凸显了美联储在制定政策时的审慎态度。 面对这种复杂局面，施密德明确表示："何时降息以及降息幅度还远不够明朗。" 他坚决主张在经济走 向更加清晰之前，保持利率不变。这一立场体现了美联储在平衡经济增长、控制通胀和稳定就业等多重 目标时的谨慎态度。在全球贸易局势紧张、国内经济数据波动的背景下，美联储的每一次政策调整都可 能引发广泛的经济和市场反应。因此，采取 "观望" 策略，等待更多经济数据和信号，无疑是在不确定 性中寻求确定性的稳妥之举。 事实上，美联储维持现有利率水平的决策与外部压力形成了鲜明对比。尽管美国总统特朗普多次公开呼 吁降息，试图通过降低利率刺激经济增长，但自去年 12 月以来，美联储始终坚守立场，将基准利率维 持在 4.25% 至 4.5% 的区间。这一坚持背后，是美联储对经济形势的独立判断与对货币政策自主性的捍 卫。美 ...

美国第一季度经常账户赤字创新高。 最新数据显示，美国第一季度经常账户赤字飙升至4502亿美元，超出此前市场预期，也大幅高于前一季 度修正后的3120亿美元。 分析人士指出，在大幅征收关税的影响下，美国6月份商业活动略有放缓，成本及商品价格进一步上 涨，表明下半年通胀可能会加速。不少经济学家普遍预期，美国通胀率将从6月起飙升。 政策方面，通胀预期上升已导致美联储暂停降息周期。美联储上个星期将基准隔夜利率维持在 4.25%-4.50%的区间不变，自2024年12月以来美联储一直维持该利率水平。 当地时间6月24日，美联储主席鲍威尔去国会汇报半年度货币政策工作。鲍威尔仍重申不急于降息，称 美联储正密切关注特朗普关税政策对经济的具体影响。他强调，美联储目前处于有利位置，能够耐心等 待，待对经济走向有更清晰的判断后再考虑调整货币政策立场。 然而，特朗普显然不这么认为。就在这场重要听证会之前，特朗普再一次在社交平台上怒批鲍威尔，认 为美联储利率至少应该下调2到3个百分点，特朗普还呼吁国会教训一下鲍威尔这个"死脑筋"。 虽然鲍威尔一直不动如山，但本周美联储两位理事——沃勒和鲍曼已经公开"倒鸽"，沃勒和鲍曼对外表 示，不排除 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货原油日报 更新时间：2025年06月25日08时14分 6、美联储巴尔：实际利率受到其他因素的显著影响，但美联储的政策确实发挥了作用。由于关税，通胀率将上升。美国经济基础稳固，失业率低且稳定，通胀仍在持续回落。 关税也可能导致经济放缓，失业率上升。货币政策处于有利位置，美联储将观望经济形势如何发展。由于短期内通胀预期上升、供应链调整以及二次效应，可能会出现一些通 胀持续的现象。 7、美联储卡什卡利表示，尽管近期的通胀数据"相当积极"，但美联储在调整政策前仍需要进一步明确关税将如何影响物价。"过去两三个月，我们得到的通胀数据相当积极，这 表明我所描述的反通胀路径已经走上正轨，"卡什卡利周二说， "但我们显然还没有看到关税的全部影响，所以我们一直在慢慢了解情况，然后再对我们的政策前景做出任何较 大的改变。"虽然一些美联储官员表示他们支持最快于7月降息，但美联储主席鲍威尔周二早些时候在国会对议员们表示，美联储并不急于降息，因为他和他的同事们正在等待 经济对包括关税在内的各种新政策做出反应。 投资咨询系列报告 1、伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬24日在致伊朗人民的公开信中表示，经过伊朗人民英勇抵抗，这场 ...

美联储内部在政策路径上同样存在分歧。上周全票通过维持短期基准利率不变的决议，掩盖不了成员间的 意见不合。部分官员认为关税对物价影响有限，主张尽快恢复降息，担心关税对企业利润率的冲击大于价 格，进而拖累经济并推高失业风险。其中，特朗普任命的沃勒和鲍曼近日暗示可能支持 7 月底会议降息， 预计关税仅会造成一次性小幅涨价。然而，更多官员持谨慎态度，希望获取更多数据验证，他们更担忧若 鲍威尔在回答议员质询时，虽未彻底排除下月降息的可能性，但也未释放出强烈的降息信号。他暗示，美 联储官员更倾向于至少等待至 9 月会议，以便观察关税引发的价格上涨是否比预期更为温和，再决定是否 重启降息周期。在众议院金融服务委员会听证会上，鲍威尔称："如果通胀压力确实保持受控，我们将更 早而非更晚降息，但我不愿具体指向某次议息会议。" 这番言论凸显了美联储决策层在关税政策不确定性 下的谨慎态度。 事实上，美联储官员普遍预计，关税将导致今夏物价增速回升，打破过去两年虽不均衡但广泛存在的通胀 放缓趋势。鲍威尔坦言："我们预计 (通胀) 会在夏季抬头，若未出现这种情况，我们将从中汲取信息。" 当 前，美联储正全力评估特朗普 4 月 2 日 "解 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing fluctuations due to reduced safe-haven demand and hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with a focus on the support levels of gold prices [1][3][5]. Market Performance - On June 24, gold opened at $3368.29, reached a high of $3369.46, and then fell to a low of $3295.29 before closing at $3322.84, marking a daily decline of $45.45 or 1.34% [1]. - The price movement indicates increased bearish pressure, with gold prices dropping below the 30-day moving average but rebounding upon reaching the 60-day moving average support [1][3]. Influencing Factors - The announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Palestine by Trump has diminished safe-haven buying, while Powell's comments about resisting interest rate cuts have further pressured gold prices [3][5]. - Despite the hawkish stance from Powell, there remains a potential for two interest rate cuts within the year, which could support gold prices in the long term [5][6]. Technical Analysis - The gold price is currently testing key support levels, including the 60-day and 100-day moving averages, with expectations of a rebound if these levels hold [1][8]. - The monthly chart indicates that gold has been relying on the 5-month moving average for support since the beginning of its bull market last year [7]. - If gold prices break below the 5-month moving average, it may lead to a wider range of fluctuations, with potential declines towards $2500 if the upward trend line is breached [6][8]. Future Outlook - The market anticipates that gold could potentially reach above $4000 within the next year, contingent on geopolitical developments and economic conditions [5][6]. - However, if the tariff agreement between the U.S. and China is extended, gold may face prolonged high volatility or a peak in its bull market [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the need to maintain current interest rates until there is clearer evidence of sustained inflation decline, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change, with potential for two rate cuts later this year [1][2]. - Powell noted that while U.S. economic growth has slowed, it remains resilient, and the labor market is close to maximum employment levels. However, inflation is still above the Fed's 2% target, indicating no clear conditions for rate cuts yet [1][3]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including the May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and June Consumer Price Index (CPI), are critical for future monetary policy decisions [3]. Group 2: Political and Regulatory Context - Powell maintained that the Fed's policy decisions are based on objective assessments of economic outlook and inflation, independent of political pressures, despite criticism from former President Trump regarding high interest rates [4][5]. - The Fed is evaluating potential adjustments to the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio (eSLR) rules, which some market participants believe restrict trading capabilities of systemically important banks [7]. Group 3: External Factors and Inflation Risks - Powell acknowledged the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on energy prices but stated that such short-term fluctuations are unlikely to significantly influence long-term monetary policy decisions [6].