Market Overview - In November, the A-share market exhibited a volatile pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 1.67%, while the ChiNext Index and the STAR Market 50 Index fell by 4.23% and 6.24% respectively. Notably, there was a significant shift in market structure as funds sought to rebalance their portfolios, with banking, petrochemicals, textiles, and light industry sectors showing the highest gains, while electronics, computers, and automotive sectors experienced notable pullbacks [1] Macro Analysis - Domestic industrial profits weakened in October, with the cumulative year-on-year growth rate for large-scale industrial enterprises at 1.9% for January to October, down from 2.4% in September, and October's year-on-year growth rate at -5.5%, a significant drop from September's 21.6%. This decline is attributed to a high base from the previous year and rising raw material prices under the "anti-involution" policy, coupled with weak demand, which has narrowed profit margins for enterprises [2] - The expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has increased, with recent U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeding expectations, yet the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. Fed officials have indicated support for a rate cut in December, suggesting a significant likelihood of this occurring [2] Investment Strategy - Following the market correction since October, there has been a notable decline in margin trading activity, but recent stabilization in market risk appetite has led to a rebound in margin trading. As risk factors begin to materialize, the market is entering a phase of emotional recovery, with expectations for a gradual increase in margin trading activity [4] - The current environment is seen as an opportune time to position for a spring market rally, with emerging technologies likely to regain prominence. Attention should also be given to undervalued consumer stocks and brokerage firms. Key areas of focus include technology growth, consumer goods, and non-ferrous metals, with the latter expected to benefit from easing monetary policy and showing relative valuation advantages [5]

铝策略月报 2025 年 1 2 月 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S | 氧化铝&电解铝&铝合金：宏观引领，支撑有力 | | --- | | 总 结 | | 1.供给：据SMM，11月国内冶金级氧化铝运行产能降至9045万吨，产量747万吨，环比下滑4%，同比增长1.8%。国内运行产能延续高位，11月末 | | 河南及山西产线检修升级结束回归复产，广西新投产能进入前期准备阶段。11月国内电解铝运行产能小幅降至4406万吨，产量361.5万吨，环比 | | 下滑3.5%，同比增长0.9%，铝水比回落至77%。海外频发减产动态，莫扎尔铝厂宣布停产时间，世纪铝业冰岛冶炼厂产线停槽，力拓澳洲铝厂停 | | 产。国内电解铝供给延续高位，广西技改项目复产，山东-云南二期置换项目逐步启槽投产。 | | 2.需求：旺季逐步转淡，11月铝下游加工企业平均开工率62%，环比10月下调0.42%。其中铝板带开工率下调1.15%至66.2%，铝箔开工率下调 | | 1.35%至70.75%，铝型材开工率下调1.13%至52.45%，铝线缆开工 ...

分析指出，近期市场对美联储降息预期升高，这为白银及整个贵金属市场提供了坚实支撑。芝商所美联储观察工具的最新数据显示，市场 预计美联储在12月降息25个基点的概率为87.4%。并且，被认为持鸽派立场的哈西特成为下任美联储主席热门人选，进一步增强了市场对未 来低利率环境的信心。 12月1日亚洲交易时段，伦敦现货白银价格再创历史新高，盘中首次突破每盎司57美元，截至北京时间上午10点，伦敦现货银价报每盎司 57.7美元，涨幅约2.3%。今年以来，国际银价已上涨超90%，大幅跑赢黄金。 而从实物供需层面，近年来，白银产量下降导致供应不足的缺口一直存在。全球交易所白银库存已降至近十年来低位，而光伏、电动汽车 等工业领域需求持续增长，进一步加剧现货市场紧张。在租赁市场，白银短期租赁利率飙升，凸显了市场上白银供应的短缺。有分析认 为，目前黄金与白银价格比约为75∶1，显著高于过去二十年约60∶1的平均水平，这表明白银在贵金属板块中相对被低估，美国银行日前已将 2026年白银目标价上调至每盎司65美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of silver has surged to a historic high, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 100%, significantly outperforming gold [1] Group 1: Price Movement - On December 1, the London spot silver price reached a historic high, briefly exceeding $57 per ounce, while domestic silver futures peaked at 13,239 yuan per kilogram [1] - As of the latest update, silver prices rose to $56.65 per ounce, marking a 0.48% increase [1] - International silver prices have increased by over 90% this year, continuing to rise for the sixth consecutive trading day [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to renewed concerns over supply tightness in the global market [1] - Market expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have contributed to a weaker US dollar, which lowers the holding cost of silver and encourages significant capital inflow into precious metals [1] Group 3: Industrial Demand - The demand for silver in industrial sectors, particularly in photovoltaic and electric vehicle industries, has been consistently growing [1] - This year marks the fifth consecutive year of a global silver supply deficit, estimated at 95 million ounces, providing strong support for silver prices [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The copper price is expected to move higher as the US dollar index may remain weak and the supply - side of copper is expected to contract significantly. Investors are advised to continue to focus on long positions in copper [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Latest Dynamics and Reasons - The copper price has rebounded sharply, with the LME copper price breaking through $11,000 per ton and the SHFE copper price approaching 50,000 yuan per ton, hitting a new historical high. The trigger may be the expected continuous contraction of the supply - side due to the low copper concentrate processing fees and the CSPT's agreement to reduce the mining copper production load by over 10% in 2026 [3]. Fundamental Situation - **Macro**: The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in February is increasing, and the recovery of liquidity is favorable for the copper price. Concerns about the Fed's independence may keep the US dollar index weak, which will support the copper price [4][5]. - **Supply**: The supply of copper ore is increasingly tight, and the processing fees are at a low level with a risk of further decline. The CSPT's joint production cut is triggered by the low processing fees. After the 770 - notice, the cost and difficulty of scrap copper recycling have increased, leading to production cuts in some smelters. The electrolytic copper production has declined since September, and the supply - side has started to contract [4]. - **Demand**: In the off - season of consumption, the demand for copper wire is weak, but the spot is still at a premium, indicating that the downstream's acceptance of the rising copper price is gradually increasing. The high premium of Chilean copper to Chinese customers reflects the market's expectation of a tight supply - demand situation for refined copper next year [4]. Summary and Strategy - With the deepening of the tight copper ore supply logic and the CSPT's joint production cut, the expectation of copper supply contraction is strong. The copper price is expected to move higher, and investors are advised to continue to focus on long positions in copper [5].

杜绝弄虚作假，以实事求是为准。大家好，我是冷艺婕。（添加冷老师即刻给出目前跟单思路） 目前实盘可提供跟单账户查验收益!自10月10号截止现在已经完成多次增倍! | XAUUS 21:43 A | | .. I V 2 200 - 11 | XAUUS 21:4 | | | 899 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 76.40 | | | | | | GBPUSD, sell 1 | | 20 16:46:53 | GBPUSD, sell * | | | 25.11.20 16:46:53 | | I 1.31181 -> 3 | | 自定义 407.10 | 1.31181 -> | | Mi | 自定义 407.10 | | AUDUSD, sell 1.15 | | 2025.11.20 16:47:39 | AUDUSD, sell 1.15 | | | 2025.11.20 16:47:39 | | 0.64984 -> 0.64486 | | 572.70 | 0.64984 -> 0.64486 | | | 572.70 | ...

Group 1: Silver Price Surge - Silver prices have continued to rise, with spot silver breaking above $57 per ounce for the first time, marking a year-to-date increase of over 95%, significantly outperforming gold [1] - COMEX silver also reached $58 per ounce, while the main contract for silver futures in Shanghai saw an intraday increase of 7.79%, peaking at 13,520 yuan per kilogram, a record high since its listing [1] Group 2: Impact on A-Share Market - The surge in silver prices has led to a collective rally in silver-related stocks in the A-share market, with companies like Hunan Silver, Silver Nonferrous, Jiangxi Copper, and Xinyi Silver Tin hitting their daily price limits [2] - The price dynamics of silver are influenced by both macroeconomic policies and the recovery of global industrial demand, as silver possesses both precious and industrial metal characteristics [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global transition to renewable energy is increasing demand for silver in industries such as photovoltaics, AI, and semiconductors, while supply growth remains weak [3] - The World Silver Association predicts a decline in global silver demand to 1.12 billion ounces by 2025, a 4% year-on-year decrease, with supply expected at only 813 million ounces, leading to a structural supply gap of approximately 95 million ounces [3] Group 4: Company Performance - Rising silver prices are expected to enhance profit margins for upstream resource companies, with leading firms like Xinyi Silver Tin poised to benefit significantly [4] - Xinyi Silver Tin ranks first in Asia and eighth globally among silver companies, with silver reserves increasing to 30,600 tons and a production increase of 18.98% year-on-year to 212.16 tons in the first three quarters [4] - The company reported a revenue of 4.099 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a 24.36% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising by 4.94% to 1.364 billion yuan, driven by silver sales contributing 36.33% to total revenue [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant rise in silver prices, driven by a combination of factors including supply shortages, increased industrial demand, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which have collectively contributed to a bullish outlook for silver and other precious metals [5][6][7]. Group 1: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver has experienced a remarkable increase, with prices reaching $57 per ounce, marking a year-to-date gain of 98% [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported that the main silver contract price surged to 13,520 yuan per kilogram, reflecting an increase of over 7% and marking eight consecutive months of price growth [1][7]. - The World Silver Association forecasts a narrowing of the global silver supply gap to 117.6 million ounces by 2025, with total supply expected to rise by 2% and demand to decrease by 1% [9]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is anticipated to result in a 25 basis point rate cut, with a probability of 87.4% according to CME data, which is expected to support precious metal prices [5][6]. - The market is closely watching the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, which is a key inflation indicator, with expectations of a slight increase in the overall PCE year-on-year growth to 2.8% [5]. Group 3: Investment Trends - Institutional investors are increasingly allocating funds to silver through various channels, including ETFs and futures contracts, with global silver ETF holdings rising significantly [10]. - Retail investors are also showing heightened interest in silver, with sales of silver bars and coins increasing by over 40% year-on-year, reflecting the metal's appeal as a "people's precious metal" [10].

| 工工程度 | | | 1 1 1 5 1 2 7 5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 从业分符号:日04517 | | | | | 行业板块 | 品种 | | 趋势研判 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 预计年内市场分歧将在股指震荡调整过程中逐步消化,后续有望 | | | | | 随着新主线的出现推动股指进一步上行。与此同时,中央汇金的 | | | | | 托底作用为市场提供了一定缓冲,指数下行风险整体可控。从策 略角度看,近期市场的调整为明年股指进一步上行提供了布局机 | | 宏观金融。 | | | 会,交易者可考虑在市场调整阶段逐步建立多头头寸,并借助股 指期货的贴水结构提升长线投资的胜率。 | | | 国债 | 震荡 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | | | | 罕间。 近期美联储降息预期提升,市场情绪向好,叠加产业面存在支 | | | | | 撑,铜价偏强运行。 | | | | 有为 | 近期产业面驱动有限，而宏观情绪向好,铝价回升。 | | | 氢化铝 | | 国内氧化铝产量及库存继续双增,基本面维持偏弱格局,近期价 | | | | | 格继 ...

宏微观共振下铜价突破上行 沪铜周度报告·2025年12月01日 姓名：安冉 从业资格号：F3049294 交易咨询证书号：Z0017020 姓名：王海聪 从业资格号：F03101206 交易咨询证书号：Z0022465 联系人：陈天敏 从业资格号：F03134700 目 录 01 周度综述：宏观/周度数据/多空逻辑/风险提示 02 铜产业链解析：价格/价差/成本/利润/供给/需求/库存 CONTENTS 资金持仓：外盘持仓CFTC/LME 03 Part 01 周度综述 ➢ 周度综述（11.24-11.28） ➢ 本页数据为2025.11.24-2025.11.28日期内周度数据对比 | | 项目 | | | | | 周度数据 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 上期 | 当期 | 环比 | 环比率 | 综述 | | | 铜精矿现货TC（美元/ 吨） | -42.32 | -42.75 | -0.43 | -1.02% | 本周铜精矿现货成交较为冷清，现货TC小幅下行，市场重点仍聚焦与长单谈判。 | | 供给端 | 精废价差（元/吨） | 2 ...