Group 1 - The core message from Stellantis (STLA.N) emphasizes the commitment to ensure that 2025 will continue to be a year of gradual and sustainable improvement [1] - The first half of the year has been challenging due to increasing external disruptions, including tariffs, foreign exchange impacts, and macroeconomic conditions [1]

Group 1 - The recent surge in US stock markets and Bitcoin is primarily attributed to the delay in tariffs and the ongoing negotiations between Trump and Powell, with market sentiment suggesting a less aggressive stance from Trump [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains a critical factor, with recent comments from Fed officials indicating a need for more data to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation [3][5] - Inflationary pressures are already evident, as core consumer prices have begun to rise, indicating that concerns over tariffs are not unfounded [5][8] Group 2 - The CPI data released shows a rise in core prices, with various categories such as household appliances and clothing experiencing price increases [8][12] - The market anticipates that if inflation continues to rise, the Fed may not lower interest rates as expected, with a potential delay in rate cuts until September [8][12] - The upcoming tariff decisions in August will be crucial for market reactions and Trump's strategies [12] Group 3 - In the cryptocurrency sector, the US House of Representatives has designated a week for voting on significant cryptocurrency legislation, including the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act [14][16] - The initial vote on these bills faced opposition, with some Republican members dissenting, which frustrated Trump [16][19] - Despite the setback, there is potential for a re-vote, as discussions with dissenting members have occurred, indicating a possibility for future legislative success [19][21] Group 4 - Bitcoin's price has seen fluctuations, with increased selling activity from investors as the price surpassed $115,000, leading to a rise in Bitcoin transfers to exchanges [21][25] - The movement of Bitcoin by long-term holders, referred to as "whales," has contributed to market volatility, although the overall impact on prices remains limited [22][29] - Data indicates that while there is an increase in Bitcoin entering exchanges, the withdrawal rates have not significantly changed, suggesting a complex market dynamic [25][31] Group 5 - Historical data shows that Bitcoin held for over a year is currently in a distribution phase, with potential for price increases if market conditions remain favorable [33][36] - High-net-worth investors continue to buy Bitcoin, while smaller investors are selling, indicating a divergence in market sentiment [36][38] - The presence of gaps in the URPD data suggests that price corrections may be necessary to stabilize the market, with historical patterns indicating that such gaps are typically filled [38][39]

交一般，下游仍处于观望状态。铅酸蓄电池虽涨价，但经销商去库缓慢，抑制了电池厂开工积极性，导致 今年季节性旺季效果暂未显现。需求端对沪铅价格的拉动作用依旧有限。库存方面，海外库存上行；国内 库存小幅上行，仓单上行，整体需求放缓。从铅精矿加工角度来看，整体影响有限。综上所述，沪铅整体 | | | 沪铅产业日报 2025-07-21 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16960 | 140 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 1977.5 | -0.5 | | | 08-09月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | -35 | -10 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 103586 | 3492 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | -1236 | -1100 沪铅仓单(日,吨) | 60059 | -25 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 62335 | 7186 LME铅库存(日,吨) | 270950 | 1725 | | | 上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent economic indicators in the U.S., highlighting weaker-than-expected core CPI and strong retail performance, alongside potential tariff increases on European imports by the U.S. government [2][35][37]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. June core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, which was below the market expectation of 0.3%. Year-on-year, the core CPI was reported at 2.9%, matching expectations [35]. - June retail sales in the U.S. rose by 0.6% month-on-month, significantly rebounding from May, indicating a robust consumer spending environment [37]. Group 2: Tariff Developments - On July 12, President Trump announced a potential increase in tariffs on imports from the EU and Mexico to 30% if trade negotiations do not reach an agreement by August 1 [27]. - The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) initiated a 301 investigation against Brazil on July 15, focusing on digital trade and intellectual property issues [27]. Group 3: Market Performance - Major developed market indices saw gains, with the S&P 500 up by 0.6% and the Hang Seng Index up by 2.8% during the week [2]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 1.0 basis points to 4.4%, reflecting market reactions to economic data and tariff announcements [2][10]. Group 4: Currency and Commodity Movements - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.6% to 98.46, while the offshore RMB depreciated to 7.1810 against the dollar [14][20]. - WTI crude oil prices fell by 1.6% to $67.3 per barrel, while COMEX gold prices decreased by 0.3% to $3349.4 per ounce [22][25].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S.-EU trade negotiations are at a stalemate, with the U.S. imposing a hard deadline of August 1 for new tariffs unless a trade agreement is reached [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Position - U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross emphasized that new tariffs on the EU will begin on August 1, marking a firm deadline for negotiations [1][2]. - The U.S. is pushing for a higher baseline tariff of 15% or more, which exceeds the previously accepted 10% by the EU [3][4]. - The U.S. administration has repeatedly delayed the tariff deadline, but the latest statement indicates no further extensions will be granted [2]. Group 2: EU Response - The EU is preparing for a robust countermeasure, including potential tariffs on over $100 billion worth of U.S. exports and the use of unprecedented "Anti-Coercion Instrument" (ACI) to respond to U.S. economic pressure [5]. - Germany, traditionally inclined towards a quick agreement with the U.S., has shifted its stance to support a stronger response alongside France and other member states [4][5]. - The EU had previously been close to an agreement that included a 10% baseline tariff and increased purchases of U.S. energy products and semiconductors, but negotiations have stalled due to U.S. demands for higher tariffs [3][4].

古尔斯比:最新的消费者价格指数数据显示关税推升商品通胀，对此持"略微担忧"的态度。未来一年利 率有望大幅下降。 美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为95.3%，降息25个基点的概率为4.7%。美联储9月维持利率不变的概率 为39.3%，累计降息25个基点的概率为58%。 消息人士:在美国贸易立场强硬之下，欧盟准备报复计划。此前特朗普对欧盟施压升级:最低关税或升至 15%-20%， 美国7月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值61.8，预期61.5，前值60.7，美国7月一年期通胀率预期初值 4.4%，预期5.00%，前值5.00%。 沃勒拒绝就7月会议是否会持不同意见表态，称私营部门的表现并不像人们所想的那么好，并表示如果 总统让其担任美联储主席，他会答应。 【黄金期货行情表现】 7月21日，沪金主力暂报779.64元/克，涨幅达0.55%，今日沪金主力开盘价780.10元/克，截至目前最高 780.24元/克，最低778.08元/克。 【宏观消息】 美商务部长:有信心能够与欧盟达成协议，小国需支付10%的基准关税。8月1日将开始征收关税。 【机构观点】 近期的美国宏观经济数据总体表现出韧性，市场信心有所恢复，对于美国的通 ...

Report Overview - The report is the "20250721 Shenwan Futures Non-ferrous Metals Basis Daily Report", focusing on the market conditions of copper and zinc, and also presenting domestic market basis data and LME spot premium/discount data [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range due to the low concentrate processing fees, low copper prices testing smelting output, and a mix of positive and negative factors in downstream demand [2] - Zinc prices may experience wide - range short - term fluctuations as the concentrate processing fees are rising, and the market expects an improvement in concentrate supply and a recovery in smelting supply [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Market - Weekend night - session copper prices closed higher. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices are testing smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with the power industry in positive growth, auto production and sales increasing, home appliance output growth slowing, and the real estate sector remaining weak [2] - Copper prices may fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the progress of US tariffs, as well as changes in the US dollar, copper smelting, and home appliance output [2] Zinc Market - Weekend night - session zinc prices closed higher. The concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic auto production and sales are increasing, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2] - The market expects a significant improvement in concentrate supply this year and a possible recovery in smelting supply. Short - term zinc prices may fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the progress of US tariffs, as well as changes in the US dollar, zinc smelting, and home appliance output [2] Domestic Market Basis Data - Copper basis is 115 yuan/ton, aluminum basis is 120 yuan/ton, zinc basis is - 15 yuan/ton, nickel basis is - 1750 yuan/ton, lead basis is - 195 yuan/ton, and tin basis is 760 yuan/ton [2][3] LME Spot Premium/Discount Data - Copper LME spot premium/discount is - 53.76 dollars/ton, aluminum is - 0.78 dollars/ton, zinc is 4.75 dollars/ton, nickel is - 194.43 dollars/ton, lead is - 24.20 dollars/ton, and tin is 44.00 dollars/ton [2][5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, suggesting that holding onto losing positions is always a mistake [1] - Gold prices experienced fluctuations last week, opening at 3364, reaching a high of 3377, a low of 3309, and closing around 3350 [1][3] - The market is currently in a state of volatility, with potential for both upward and downward movements, particularly focusing on resistance levels at 3360-65 and 3375-80, and a significant level at 3400 [3][4] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that the gold market is undergoing a "big sweep" phase, with rapid changes in market sentiment, necessitating caution against sudden one-sided movements [3][4] - The international silver market is also experiencing high volatility, with resistance levels at 38.4 and 39.2, and a key support level at 37.3 [3] - The Shanghai gold and silver markets are following similar trends, with specific resistance and support levels identified for trading strategies [6] Group 3 - The U.S. dollar index is performing as expected, maintaining a bullish trend with resistance levels at 99 and 100, and support at 98 [7] - U.S. stock futures are showing strength, with the S&P 500 facing resistance at 6320, 6390, and 6480 [8]

韩国产业通商资源部部长：与美国的关税谈判处于关键阶段，可能会出现各种可能的情况，将尽一切努力在8月1日前顺利完成关税谈判。 ...

Report on Pre - market Tips 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the precious metals market, including gold and silver. It points out that the US economy remains robust, with better - than - expected consumer confidence and retail sales data. However, inflation data is mixed, which makes the Fed likely to remain cautious. Gold and silver prices are in a state of oscillation, and long - position holders of silver are advised to continue holding [1]. 3. Summary by Sections Market Review - COMEX gold futures rose 0.30% to $3355.5 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.32% to $38.425 per ounce. At night, the main contract of Shanghai gold rose 0.36% to 778.10 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver rose 0.33% to 9216 yuan per kilogram [1]. Important Information - As of July 18, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 4.87 tons to 943.63 tons, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, decreased by 36.74 tons to 14658.21 tons. - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in July was 61.8 (expected 61.5, previous value 60.7), and the preliminary value of the one - year inflation rate expectation in July was 4.4% (expected 5.0%, previous value 5.0%) [1]. Market Logic - The US retail sales month - on - month rate in June was 0.6%, the highest since March this year, higher than the market expectation of 0.1%. The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in July was 61.8, slightly better than expected. The US economy remains robust. - The US core CPI in June increased by 0.2% month - on - month, slightly lower than the market estimate of 0.3%. The CPI in June only rose moderately, and both the core CPI and PPI were lower than expected. The market doubts the impact of tariffs on inflation, and the Fed may remain cautious [1]. Trading Strategy - The gold price is oscillating, with COMEX gold trading between $3250 - $3480 per ounce and the domestic Shanghai gold main contract trading between 750 - 800 yuan per gram. After reaching a high on July 14, COMEX silver has been in a correction for several days, and long - position holders are advised to continue holding [1].