新华财经北京5月6日电上周（4月28日至5月2日当周）国际现货黄金冲高回落，当周累计下跌78.12美元 或2.35%，周K线连续第二周收阴。 避险情绪缓和、强劲的美国就业数据提振美元反弹，以及市场对美联储6月降息预期降温等多重因素导 致金价自4月22日历史高点连续两周下跌近300美元、跌幅约7%。但4月份整体，金价仍以上涨164.57美 元或5.27%，实现连续第四个月收阳。 展望新的一周，贸易谈判进展仍是关键变量，若谈判陷入僵局，避险需求可能推升金价。另外，5月美 联储货币政策会议是周内的焦点事件，尤其是鲍威尔的讲话可能提供美联储未来政策走向的线索。 避险情绪缓和上周金价震荡回落 上周，美国关税政策的最新变动，是市场避险情绪回落、金价高位回调的主要因素。 美国总统特朗普29日签署公告，允许对进口汽车零部件、在美国组装汽车的汽车生产商进行一定程度的 补偿。同日，美国财政部长贝森特表示，特朗普政府在关税谈判方面正在取得实质性进展。此外，美国 商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克（Howard Lutnick）当日也表示，特朗普政府已经达成首个贸易协议，但该协 议尚未完全就绪。卢特尼克也没有披露该协议涉及的国家名称。 另外， ...

Fundamental Analysis - Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on overseas film production has raised global trade war concerns, increasing market uncertainty and driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - The U.S. services sector showed signs of recovery in April, with the non-manufacturing PMI rising from 50.8 in March to 51.6, indicating positive growth [3] - However, the index measuring corporate payment prices surged to its highest level in over two years, driven by tariff impacts, leading to increased inflationary pressures [3] - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's policy decision, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% [3] - Due to the ongoing effects of Trump's tariff policy, market expectations for a rate cut in June have dropped to 37%, with major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Barclays pushing back their rate cut predictions to July [3] Technical Analysis - The gold market exhibited a clear shift in momentum last week, initially experiencing a consolidation phase before a downward trend took hold [5] - A significant bullish reversal occurred on Monday, with gold prices rising sharply and closing with a large bullish candle, indicating a potential shift back to a bullish market [5] - Current technical indicators suggest that if gold can maintain support above the moving averages, an upward trend may continue; otherwise, a new round of adjustments could occur [5] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at 3353, 3370/3371, and 3386, while support levels are at 3305 and the critical zone of 3270-3260 [7][8]

避险情绪重回市场。 当地时间周一，美股三大股指收跌，纳指跌0.74%，标普500指数跌0.64%，道指跌0.24%。道指与标普500指数此前连续9个交易日的上涨至此终结。市场对全 球贸易局势的担忧加剧，尤其是特朗普称对进口电影征收100%的关税，引发了市场的不确定性。 据新华社，特朗普周日称，将对所有在外国制作的电影征收100%关税。另据媒体援引消息人士报道，在与美国的贸易谈判中，印度提出对钢铁、汽车零部件 和医药产品实行互免关税方案，但仅限于一定数量的进口。 特朗普上周日表示，一些贸易协议最早可能在本周敲定。包括韩国、日本和印度在内的亚洲经济体正积极与美国接触，争取率先达成临时协议。 关税威胁下，避险情绪重回市场，黄金涨近3%，接近抹平一周来跌幅。 大型科技股多数下跌，苹果跌超3%，特斯拉跌逾2%，亚马逊、奈飞、英特尔跌超1%，英伟达小幅下跌；微软、谷歌、Meta小幅上涨。伯克希尔哈撒韦-A跌 近5%，伯克希尔哈撒韦-B跌超5%，巴菲特宣布将于2025年底卸任首席执行官一职。 特斯拉收跌2.42%。据报道，特斯拉在欧洲核心市场正面临严峻挑战。最新数据显示，今年4月该品牌在六大主要欧洲市场的电动车注册量同比骤 ...

关税威胁压顶，美股回落，标普500指数终结二十余年来最长连涨日，黄金进一步走高。盘中公布的美国服务业先行指标意外向好，帮助遏制美股跌势，美 债收益率攀升。OPEC+再次加快增产后，原油开盘大跌，后收窄过半跌幅。 避险情绪重回市场，美股各行业板块普遍收跌： 汇市方面，新台币兑美元创1988年来最大盘中涨幅。后中国"台湾央行"重申，美财政部未要求新台币升值，称强烈的新台币升值预期部分 来自市场评论人员，呼吁评论人员勿以臆测方式论市，重申若汇率波动危及市场稳定，将介入。此外，评论称台湾险资对冲操作也助推新 台币飙涨。 周一，美国三大股指集体收跌，标普终结九连阳。影业关税威胁的冲击下，奈飞收跌近2%、迪士尼跌0.44%，苹果收跌超3%。伯克希尔-哈撒韦最终收跌 超5%。美股各板块ETF普遍收跌，其中OPEC+增产消息导致能源和油气板块跌超1.7%。 美股三大股指： 芯片股： 美股行业ETF： 标普能源和油气ETF领跌美股各板块ETF，其中前者跌幅1.81%，后者跌超1.7%。 美股盘前，据证券时报，特朗普4日周日称，美国正与中国等多国就贸易协议举行会谈，对华谈判的主要优先事项是确保达成公平的贸易协 议。据，特朗普周日 ...

黄金：3260-3263做空，止损3270，目标看3240-3220一线。破位持有。 张津镭：黄金上演"多空拉锯战"！反弹即空？美联储决议前谨防"黑天鹅"！ 上周因避险情绪消退，黄金回落不少。周一多个国家证券休市，估计波动很大概率还是震荡。周尾将迎 来美联储利率决议，料将主导本周行情，另外，需要继续关注国际贸易局势的相关消息。 周一（5月5日）今天亚市早盘时段，金价又有点小反弹，美国股指期货下跌，市场里出现了一些空头回 补的迹象。5月7日美联储决议在即，鲍威尔一句"暂不降息"直接把金价吓崩了。华尔街50%的分析师都 押注金价继续跌，可他们自己却偷偷增持了80吨黄金储备，这不是典型的"嘴上说不要，身体很诚 实"嘛！ 另外，特朗普"反复横跳"的贸易政策，让避险情绪就像坐电梯一样急速下降。要是中美重启谈判，金价 可能就像坐滑梯一样直逼3000美元大关。反之，继续各种关税政策黄金自然会回归大涨行情。所以，现 在黄金的"避险光环"亮不亮，全看国际新闻头条如何了。 从技术上来看，综合目前技术走势以及基本面的预期情况，本周初黄金允许出现一定的回弹，毕竟上周 连续3日下跌后，出现超跌反弹也是理所应当的，上方5日线3270都可 ...

Group 1 - The international gold price has surged significantly, reaching a peak of $2,009 per ounce in London and nearly $2,015 per ounce on COMEX, marking a rise of over 9% since early March [1] - The primary driver of this increase has been the turmoil in the banking sector, particularly the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the liquidity crisis at Credit Suisse, which triggered a flight to safety and boosted gold prices by 5% [1] - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike of 25 basis points, gold prices rose an additional 4% within three trading days, influenced by dovish signals from the Fed that weakened the dollar and raised expectations of a halt in further rate increases [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical instability and economic stagnation in Europe and the U.S. have made gold an attractive safe haven, with global central bank demand for gold reaching 1,136 tons in 2022, doubling from 450.1 tons in 2021, and continuing to rise in 2023 [3] - Despite the recent rapid increase in gold prices, there is still potential for further growth, as the Fed is expected to halt rate hikes, the weak dollar will support gold prices, and financial and recession risks are likely to become more pronounced in the second half of the year [4] - The A-share market is also influenced by inflation and recession dynamics, with rising inflation and currency depreciation driving gold prices higher, while ongoing tightening policies increase recession risks, enhancing gold's risk premium [6]

本周美元指数与黄金价格走势呈现鲜明对比。美元指数在市场对全球贸易战担忧情绪显著缓解的推动下，预计将连续第二周录得上涨，收盘时有望 稳定在100整数关口附近，显示出美元在当前市场环境下的相对强势。与之相反，现货黄金市场则因多重利空因素交织而承压。避险情绪的消退、 美元指数的走高以及劳动节假期前交易员的获利清算行为，共同导致黄金价格连续第二周收跌，周五收于3241美元/盎司。 上周五的非农数据并未给市场带来显著意外，黄金价格在日内有所波动，但整体仍维持弱势格局。从技术面分析黄金价格在连续下跌后虽出现一定 程度的修复，但上方压力依然明显。特别是在1小时图上，均线呈现死叉向下的空头排列，表明短期趋势依然偏空。下周3270美元/盎司一线将成为 黄金价格多空争夺的关键点位。若该点位未能被有效突破，黄金价格或将维持震荡格局，多头反转仍需更多积极因素支撑。目前上方阻力在3264- 3270，下方支撑在3208-3200，操作上徐老师建议回调做多为主，反弹高空为辅。 操作策略1：建议反弹3265-3270空，损3275，目标看3240-3225。 操作策略2：建议回调3225-3220多，损3214，目标看3240-3255。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced significant volatility during the May Day holiday, with spot gold prices dropping over $50 in a single day, falling below $3240 per ounce, and showing a cumulative decline of over 5% from historical highs [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The sharp decline in gold prices was influenced by multiple factors, including a easing of international trade tensions, as the U.S. is set to announce the first batch of trade agreements and potentially lower some tariffs, which alleviated global economic risk concerns and suppressed gold's safe-haven appeal [1] - Investor profit-taking due to heightened fear of high prices further exacerbated the drop in gold prices [1] Group 2: Regulatory Response - Regulatory bodies acted swiftly in response to the volatility, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusting trading fees, margins, and price limits for gold futures to mitigate market risks [1] - Several banks issued urgent warnings, advising investors to approach precious metal investments with caution due to increased volatility [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite short-term pressure on gold prices, there remains a divergence in market sentiment regarding future trends, with some economic data suggesting a potential resurgence of safe-haven demand, while expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts could provide upward momentum for gold [2] - Long-term support factors for gold prices include continued accumulation by global central banks, geopolitical uncertainties, and expectations of a weakening U.S. dollar, which may drive prices higher again [2] - The key variables for future gold price movements may hinge on the timing of Federal Reserve policy shifts and whether the global economy achieves a "soft landing" [2]

一、暴跌导火索：谁在背后推了一把？ 今天现货黄金直接摔了50美元，最低砸到3237美元，活像被抽了脊梁骨。翻翻最近的新闻，美国对华关税松动的风声是头号推手——特朗普说"高关税不可 持续"，市场一听，哎呦喂，贸易战要降温？避险情绪"唰"地就退潮了。再加上美联储那边降息预期推迟，美元指数蹭蹭反弹，黄金这位"避险大佬"瞬间失 宠。 各位老铁们好，我是帮主郑重，干了20年财经记者，今天带大家复盘黄金这场"跳水表演"。先说结论：金价这波跌得有点狠，但别急着喊"熊市来了"，咱们 先摸清市场这出戏的台前幕后。 黄金之前冲到3500美元时，那叫一个风光，但涨得越高摔得越狠。日线RSI指标飙到89，这就好比马拉松选手心率飙到180，身体肯定吃不消。更狠的是， 3500美元上方埋着200亿美元的量化止损单，价格一破位，程序化交易直接开启"割肉模式"，这哪是人工操作能扛得住的？ 黄金这波跌，让我想起2020年原油宝事件——市场先生永远比你想象得更任性。记住两招：政策风向比K线准（比如关注6月美联储议息会议），情绪极端 时反向操作（现在骂黄金的越多，反弹概率越大）。 最后送各位老铁句话："牛市赚钱是运气，熊市不亏才是本事。" 五一假 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article discusses the temporary suspension of tariffs on automotive steel and aluminum by Trump, which has led to a decrease in risk aversion in the market [1] - The article raises a question about whether gold can break the 3260 level in light of the current market conditions [1]