Group 1: Soybean Oil - Current spot price of Zhangjiagang Yijiang Grade 1 soybean oil is 8,260 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - South American new - crop soybeans are likely to achieve a bumper harvest, and the USDA May report shows that the estimated soybean yield per acre in the 2025/26 season is 52.5 bushels, up from 50.7 bushels in the 2024/25 season [1] - The medium - term destocking cycle of soybean oil may be coming to an end, and the inventory may rebound from a low level after the arrival of South American imported soybeans and customs clearance [1] - The short - term trend of the soybean oil 2509 contract may be range - bound [1] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot prices of 43% soybean meal in different regions: Zhangjiagang 2,860 yuan/ton (+30), Tianjin 2,950 yuan/ton (+20), Rizhao 2,880 yuan/ton (+20), Dongguan 2,900 yuan/ton (+10) [2] - Although a phase - one agreement has been reached in China - US trade, long - term contradictions still exist; US soybeans have risen due to weather speculation caused by rainfall in the production areas [2] - The supply of soybeans is gradually recovering, the oil mill operating rate is increasing, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to shift from tight to loose. Downstream enterprises will adopt a just - in - time procurement strategy [2] - The short - term trend of soybean meal may be oscillating strongly [2] Group 3: Corn - The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia are 2,195 yuan/ton, and in North China and the Huang - Huai region are 2,414 yuan/ton. The purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2,260 - 2,270 yuan/ton [3] - The Sino - US joint statement has led to expectations of looser corn imports in the medium and long term, and the May USDA report has increased the US production and ending stocks, which is bearish for US corn futures prices [3] - In China, the supply pressure has been relieved, but downstream demand is weak, and the futures price has declined due to market sentiment [3] - The short - term futures price will oscillate weakly, and mid - term investors should focus on band - trading long opportunities [3] Group 4: Electrolytic Copper - The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,290 - 78,630 yuan, up 230 yuan, with a premium of 200 - 350 yuan. The imported copper ore index is - 43.05, up 0.06 [4] - The gradual easing of global tariffs and domestic policy support are beneficial to the market, but raw material issues and inventory declines have complicated the market [4] - Copper prices have not completely shaken off the influence of the moving average, and the upper limit of the moving average system is set as the overall defense line [4] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 63,000 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 60,850 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 2,150 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - Cost support has weakened, supply is high, demand has improved but not enough to drive prices up, and inventory has increased. The spot and futures prices have declined, and attention should be paid to the 60,000 yuan/ton support level [6] - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and investors can go short on rallies [7] Group 6: Steel Rebar - The price of Shanghai steel rebar is 3,190 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.69%, the social inventory is 416.46 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 187.76 million tons [8] - The fundamentals of steel have improved, the contango structure has weakened, and the current valuation is moderately low. Policy support has increased the apparent demand, and the cost is dynamically adjusted. The inventory is at a low level [8] - The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations, and the fundamentals are also improving. The market shows a pattern of strong supply and demand. Investors should focus on the switching rhythm between macro - policy expectations and fundamental data and conduct range trading [8] - The negative feedback in the black market has been gradually reflected in the market, and investors can take a long position at low levels [8] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - The price of main coking coal (Meng 5) is 1,155 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port is 1,290 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 301.56 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 223.10 million tons [9] - The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak, the inventory is slightly increasing, and the average profit per ton of coke is approaching the break - even point [9] - Due to the loose supply, coking coal and coke will oscillate weakly at low levels [9] Group 8: Iron Ore - The Platts iron ore index is 100.15, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 765 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 764 yuan [10] - The global iron ore shipment volume has slightly decreased, the port inventory has decreased, the domestic demand has increased but procurement is still cautious, and overseas demand is differentiated. The US tariff policy has restricted the upward space of iron ore prices [10] - The short - term trend of the iron ore 2509 contract will be range - bound, and investors are advised to be cautious [10] Group 9: Crude Oil - The resurgence of twists and turns in the US - Iran negotiations has reduced the expectation of supply increase, but the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating has led to the overall oscillation of crude oil prices. In the medium and long term, the price center will move down [11] - OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, and the market expects an oversupply [11] - The WTI main contract will oscillate between 55 - 65 US dollars per barrel [11] Group 10: Rubber - With the improvement of the Sino - US trade situation, the fundamentals have improved slightly, but the rebound height is restricted. The supply is loose, and the market is affected by macro - factors [12][13] - The overall supply of rubber exceeds demand, and the market will oscillate [13] Group 11: PVC - The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,830 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price difference between ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based PVC is 170 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [14] - The PVC production enterprise operating rate has decreased, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the social inventory has decreased. The futures price has rebounded, but the fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the upward space is limited [14] - The fundamentals are still weak, and the futures price will oscillate at low levels [15] Group 12: Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1422.19 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The mainstream prices in East China, North China, and Central China are also unchanged [16] - The weekly operating rate of soda ash has decreased, the production has decreased, the inventory has decreased, and the demand is average. The market is expected to continue wide - range oscillation [16] - The 09 contract oscillated narrowly yesterday, and the market is expected to continue wide - range oscillation in the short term [16]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Cotton is expected to show a moderately strong upward trend in the short - to medium - term, especially during the Sino - US "honeymoon period" in May and June. However, caution is needed in July and August. The 09 contract is relatively strong, while the 01 contract may face supply pressure due to expected new cotton production. The price is also highly affected by macro factors [1]. - PTA is likely to operate under pressure. With the weakening of demand and the restart of some production enterprises, the PTA market may continue to be under pressure in the short term without new positive factors [2][3]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to trade in a range. Although the cost is decreasing and the supply - demand situation is favorable, there may be a price correction due to the rapid short - term increase [3]. - Short - fiber is expected to trade in a range. The price may be strong in the near term but weak in the long term due to the approaching terminal off - season and the end of upstream spring maintenance [4]. - Sugar is expected to trade sideways. Internationally, there are expectations of increased production in Brazil, while domestically, the market is influenced by both positive and negative factors [4][5]. - Apples are expected to trade at a high level. With low inventory, the price is likely to remain in a high - level range, although the market may be affected by the listing of seasonal fruits [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - As of the end of April, the commercial inventory was 415 million tons, and the industrial inventory was 95 million tons. By the end of August, the commercial inventory is expected to be 155 million tons, lower than the same period last year and in 2023. The 09 contract is strong, and the new cotton in the 01 contract may lead to a supply increase. The short - to medium - term price is expected to rise, especially in May and June, but caution is needed in July and August. The price is affected by macro factors, and it is advisable to hedge at the rebound high [1]. - On May 22, the China Cotton Price Index was 14,621 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn index was 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The total cotton warehouse receipts were 11,757 (- 14) sheets [8]. - As of early May, Brazil's 2025 new cotton harvest has not started, with an expected total output of 3.95 million tons. In April, Brazil exported 239,000 tons of cotton, and the cumulative export volume this year is at a historical high [8]. - On May 22, the Xinjiang cotton road transportation price index was 0.1311 yuan/ton·km, down 1.35% month - on - month [8]. PTA - As of May 14, the average PTA processing margin was 390.88 yuan/ton, down 10.5% month - on - month and up 7.68% year - on - year. As of May 15, the weekly average PTA capacity utilization rate was 74.63%, down 0.35% month - on - month and up 4.68% year - on - year. The PTA output was 1.2967 million tons, a slight decrease from last week [8][9]. - The PTA market is under pressure due to weakening demand and the restart of production enterprises. The price is affected by factors such as crude oil and polyester production cuts [2][3]. Ethylene Glycol - The total ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate in China was 61.04%, down 2.42% month - on - month. The production was 368,300 tons, down 1.32% from last week [10][13]. - The price is expected to trade in a range. Although the cost is decreasing and the supply - demand situation is favorable, there may be a price correction [3]. Short - fiber - As of the 8th, the weekly output of domestic short - fiber was 166,900 tons, up 1.52% month - on - month, and the average capacity utilization rate was 88.24%, up 1.30% month - on - month. The average polymerization cost was 5,706.60 yuan/ton, up 7.35% month - on - month, and the industry cash flow was - 361.60 yuan/ton, down 86.41% month - on - month [11]. - The price is expected to be strong in the near term but weak in the long term due to the approaching terminal off - season and the end of upstream spring maintenance [4]. Sugar - The NFCSF expects India's 2024/25 sugar production to be about 2.611 million tons, lower than the previous season. The ISO has raised the global sugar shortage estimate for the 2024/25 season to 5.47 million tons. In April 2025, China imported 130,000 tons of sugar, and the cumulative import from January to April was 278,400 tons, a significant decrease year - on - year [12][13][14]. - The sugar price is expected to trade sideways. Internationally, there are expectations of increased production in Brazil, while domestically, the market is influenced by both positive and negative factors [4][5]. Apples - As of May 21, the total apple cold - storage inventory in the main production areas was 1.7085 million tons, down 242,500 tons from the previous week. The prices in Shaanxi Luochuan and Shandong Qixia are provided [15]. - Apples are expected to trade at a high level. With low inventory, the price is likely to remain in a high - level range, although the market may be affected by the listing of seasonal fruits [5]. Macro Information - Trump's tax - cut bill has passed the House of Representatives and will be reviewed by the Senate. The bill plans to cut taxes by over $4 trillion in the next decade and reduce spending by at least $1.5 trillion [8]. - The Eurozone's May manufacturing PMI improved slightly, but the service PMI declined significantly, dragging down the composite PMI. The market is increasing bets on the ECB to cut interest rates twice this year [8].

定状态，但个别企业为控制库存增长，排产小幅下调，限制了整体产能利用率提升幅度，少数企业将在月 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 底存检修计划，或将对整体产能利用率形成拖拽。br2507合约短线关注12000附近支撑情况，建议暂以观 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 望为主。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 合成橡胶产业日报 2025-05-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/ ...

Group 1: Company Overview and Product Capacity - The company produces various products with capacities as follows: Special Polyether 19,000 tons/year, Polyether Amine 31,000 tons/year, Alkyl Glycoside 35,000 tons/year, Flame Retardants 34,800 tons/year, Silicone Oil 4,600 tons/year, and Silicone Rubber 8,500 tons/year [2] - The current capacity utilization rate is good, and the company is focused on capturing market opportunities to secure more orders [2] Group 2: Dividend Policy and Historical Performance - Since its listing in 2017, the company has distributed a total of 308 million RMB in dividends, with the total funds raised at 264 million RMB [3] - The dividend payout ratios from 2016 to 2023 have shown a consistent increase: 18%, 19%, 19%, 24%, 44%, 48%, 59%, and 63% respectively [3] - For the 2024 profit distribution, the company plans to distribute 2.00 RMB (including tax) per 10 shares, totaling 43,001,596 RMB [3] Group 3: Share Buyback Plan - The share buyback will commence on May 13, 2025, and will last for 12 months [4] - The company will adhere to information disclosure requirements during the buyback period [4] Group 4: Market Trends and Future Outlook - In the surfactant sector, the company aims to strengthen its product line and enhance quality, maintaining deep cooperation with renowned companies [5] - The flame retardant business is expected to see a slight decline in scale due to oversupply in the domestic market [5] - The organic silicone rubber materials are projected to have a slight increase in gross profit due to leading technology and brand advantages [5] - The market trends for 2025 are expected to follow the development patterns observed in 2024 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short - term [1] - Soybean meal may oscillate with a slight upward trend in the short - term [1] - Corn futures prices may oscillate weakly in the short - term, and mid - term investors should watch for band - buying opportunities [1][2] - Copper prices have not completely shaken off the influence of moving averages, with the upper limit of the moving average system as the overall defense line [3] - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and investors can short at high prices [5][6] - For black commodities, negative feedback is gradually reflected in the market, and investors can take a long position at low levels [7] - Coking coal and coke may oscillate weakly at low levels due to ample supply [8] - Iron ore 2509 may oscillate in the short - term, and traders are advised to be cautious [9] - WTI crude oil may oscillate between $55 and $65 per barrel [10] - Rubber may oscillate, with an overall supply exceeding demand [11][12] - PVC futures prices may oscillate at low levels due to weak fundamentals [13][14] - Soda ash futures may continue to oscillate widely in the short - term [15] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Oil - **Spot Market**: The price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang Yijiang is 8310 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - **International Soybeans**: In the current time frame, it is the season for US soybean sowing and growth and South American soybean harvesting and export. Brazil's soybean harvest is almost complete, and the new South American soybean crop is likely to be a bumper harvest. The USDA May 2025 report shows that the estimated soybean yield per acre in the 2025/26 season is 52.5 bushels, compared to 50.7 bushels in the 2024/25 season [1] - **Domestic Industry**: The medium - term de - stocking cycle of soybean oil may be ending. After the arrival of imported South American soybeans and customs clearance, soybean oil inventory may rebound from a low level [1] 3.2 Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, and Dongguan are 2830 yuan/ton (- 20), 2930 yuan/ton (- 10), and 2890 yuan/ton (+ 20) respectively [1] - **Market Analysis**: Macroscopically, China and the US have reached a phased trade agreement, but long - term contradictions remain. Internationally, US soybean prices have risen due to weather speculation caused by rainfall in the producing areas. Domestically, soybean supply is gradually recovering, oil mill operating rates are increasing, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to shift from tight to loose. As downstream enterprises build safety stocks, they will switch to a just - in - time procurement and rolling replenishment model. Oil mill soybean inventories have risen to a high level, and the speed of soybean meal inventory accumulation is slow in the short term [1] 3.3 Corn - **Spot Information**: The average purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia is 2195 yuan/ton; in key enterprises in North China and the Huanghuai region, it is 2414 yuan/ton. The purchase prices in Jinzhou Port (15% moisture/content 680 - 720) and Bayuquan (content 680 - 730/15% moisture) are 2260 - 2270 yuan/ton [1] - **Market Analysis**: Externally, the China - US joint statement on tariff reduction has led to expectations of looser long - term corn imports, which affects short - term prices emotionally but has limited negative impact on domestic futures prices. The May USDA report has raised US corn production and ending stocks, which is negative for US corn futures. Domestically, as the weather warms and the planting season approaches, the remaining grain in the producing areas has basically been sold. The north - south ports have started the de - stocking process, reducing short - term supply pressure. Downstream demand is weak, with cautious purchasing by downstream enterprises, low breeding profits leading to on - demand procurement by breeding enterprises, and low operating rates of corn deep - processing enterprises due to losses. Under the influence of the easing of China - US relations and the news of policy grain release, futures prices have declined periodically [1][2] 3.4 Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78290 - 78630 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan/ton, with a premium of 200 - 350 yuan/ton. The imported copper ore index is - 43.05, up 0.06 [3] - **Market Analysis**: Globally, the gradual easing of tariff confrontations is conducive to a positive outlook for the commodity market, in line with the international background and the possible end of the interest - rate cut cycle in 2025. Domestically, continuous policy support from the central bank, the CSRC, and the finance department has boosted market sentiment. However, raw material shocks are intensifying, and the mining problem has not been completely resolved. With the rapid decline of domestic copper inventories, the game between reality and expectation, as well as between the domestic and foreign markets, has intensified, complicating market analysis [3] 3.5 Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 63000 yuan/ton (- 300), and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 60850 yuan/ton (- 450). The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2150 yuan/ton (+ 100) [4] - **Market Analysis**: Fundamentally, the prices of various ores in the cost side have dropped significantly. Although the production cost of lithium carbonate has decreased, the profit margin has not expanded due to the rapid decline in lithium salt prices. In terms of supply, the weekly operating rate of the lithium carbonate industry has slightly decreased, but the overall output remains high. As the temperature rises, the production capacity of salt - lake lithium extraction will further increase, and the supply of low - cost lithium salt will increase, potentially suppressing market prices. In terms of demand, the production of cathode materials is stable, and the power battery market is growing steadily. The terminal consumer market has potential due to the launch of new technology models and policy incentives, but it is not strong enough to drive prices up. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory has continued to accumulate. As of May 16, the weekly inventory is 131920 (+ 351) physical tons, including 56522 (+ 1670) physical tons in smelters, 41428 (- 728) physical tons in downstream enterprises, and 33970 (- 591) physical tons in other sectors. The monthly inventory in April is 96202 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 51% and a month - on - month increase of 7%, with downstream inventory at 45169 (+ 5876) physical tons and smelter inventory at 51033 (+ 256) physical tons. Overall, due to the weakening cost support and macro - disturbances, both spot and futures prices have declined, and the subsequent focus is on the 60,000 yuan/ton integer support level [5] 3.6 Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3170 yuan/ton, the operating rate in Tangshan is 83.56%, the social inventory of rebar is 532.76 million tons, and the inventory in rebar steel mills is 200.4 million tons [7] - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals of the steel industry are gradually improving, with a weaker near - term and stronger long - term outlook, and the contango structure has weakened. The current valuation of steel is moderately low. In terms of cost and inventory, policy support for the real estate industry is helping it to stabilize. The apparent demand for steel has decreased year - on - year, and raw material prices have oscillated weakly this week. The cost center of steel is dynamically changing. Both social and steel mill inventories of steel are decreasing, and the overall inventory level is low. In the short term, macro - policy expectations dominate the market, and the fundamentals are also improving, showing a situation of strong supply and demand. Attention should be paid to the switching rhythm between macro - policy expectations and fundamental data [7] 3.7 Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of main coking coal (clean coal, Mongolia 5) is 1205 yuan/ton; the price of metallurgical coke (quasi - first - grade) at Rizhao Port is 1340 yuan/ton; the inventory of imported coking coal at ports is 337.38 million tons; and the inventory of coke at ports is 246.10 million tons [8] - **Market Analysis**: In terms of supply, domestic production capacity is steadily recovering, and the capacity utilization rate of coking plants is stable. Although there are some disturbances in Mongolian coal imports, the overall volume remains high. In terms of demand, steel mills are reducing production, and there is an expectation of a decline in hot metal production, resulting in weak overall demand. In terms of inventory, independent coking enterprises maintain a low - inventory strategy for raw materials, and the overall inventory is slightly increasing. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke is stable and approaching the break - even point [8] 3.8 Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The Platts iron ore index is 100.1, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 763 yuan/ton, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 765 yuan/ton [9] - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore market is currently influenced by both positive and negative factors. On the supply side, Australian shipments have decreased after the end of the quarterly rush, while Brazilian shipments have continued to increase, and the global total shipments have slightly decreased. The port inventory has decreased by 112.39 million tons to 1.48 billion tons, indicating a short - term reduction in arrival pressure. On the demand side, the domestic steel mill's hot metal production has increased to 240.22 million tons per day, and the resumption of blast furnaces has led to a 2.46 - million - ton increase in the daily consumption of imported ore. However, steel mills are still cautious in raw material procurement and mainly replenish inventory as needed. Overseas demand is divided, with increased production in Indian steel mills supporting some demand, but the substitution effect of Southeast Asian electric arc furnaces is strengthening, reducing the dependence on iron ore. In addition, the repeated adjustment of US tariff policies has intensified the volatility of global commodity prices, and market concerns about the trade war have limited the upward space for iron ore prices [9] 3.9 Crude Oil - **Market Analysis**: The resurgence of波折 in the US - Iran negotiations has reduced the expectation of increased supply, supporting oil prices. However, the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by institutions has led to continued oscillation in crude oil prices. In the medium - to - long - term, the upside of oil prices is restricted. In terms of supply and demand, OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, and the market expects an oversupply. In the long - term, the price center of crude oil will shift downward, but the WTI main contract has technical support at $55 per barrel and may oscillate around this level. OPEC has significantly lowered the global demand growth rate for the next two years. The escalation of the US trade war and the unpredictable policies of the Trump administration have raised concerns about global demand. The repeated delays in the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the resurgence of波折 in the US - Iran negotiations have increased uncertainty [10] 3.10 Rubber - **Market Analysis**: Attention should be paid to overseas orders and domestic demand. The limited improvement in the fundamentals and the repeated situation after the positive news of the easing of the China - US trade war have restricted the rebound of rubber prices, which are mainly in a weak oscillation. Fundamentally, the tapping of domestic whole - latex has started, with 70% of the areas in Yunnan tapped and the supply of glue in Hainan increasing. In Southeast Asian producing areas, the tapping in northeastern Thailand has started, and the southern part will start tapping after May, resulting in an overall loose supply. Currently, the global supply and demand of rubber are both loose. Market speculation about the trade war and other macro - narratives, as well as the possible US automobile tariff, may seriously suppress global rubber demand, and rubber prices are generally weak. Attention should be paid to factors such as domestic rubber imports and inventory changes [11][12] 3.11 PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4830 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price difference between ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based PVC is 170 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [13] - **Market Analysis**: In terms of supply, the operating rate of PVC production enterprises last week was 77.70%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.64% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.85%. Among them, the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC was 77.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.64% and a year - on - year increase of 0.18%, and the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 77.73%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.87%. In terms of demand, there has been no significant improvement in domestic downstream product enterprises, and transactions are mainly based on rigid demand. In terms of inventory, as of May 15, the PVC social inventory (47 samples) decreased by 3.07% week - on - week to 64.15 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26.96%. Among them, the inventory in East China was 58.39 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.11% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.84%, and the inventory in South China was 5.77 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.86% and a year - on - year decrease of 28.09%. On May 21, the futures price rebounded. Previously, affected by macro - sentiment, the PVC futures price rebounded significantly, but there has been no obvious improvement in the fundamentals, and the upward space may be limited, with the futures price oscillating at a low level [13] 3.12 Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1421.25 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The mainstream prices in East China, North China, and Central China are 1450 yuan/ton, 1500 yuan/ton, and 1400 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged from the previous period [15] - **Market Analysis**: In terms of supply, the overall operating rate of soda ash last week was 80.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 7.47%. The soda ash production was 67.77 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.31 million tons, a decline of 8.52%. The scheduled maintenance has led to a decrease in supply. In terms of inventory, the manufacturer's inventory last week was 171.20 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.07 million tons, a decline of 0.63%, and the enterprise inventory has not fluctuated much. It is understood that the social inventory is on a downward trend, with a decline of more than 1 million tons and a total of more than 36 million tons. The demand is average, and downstream enterprises replenish inventory for low - priced goods on a rigid - demand basis but still resist high - priced goods. Overall, due to the combination of plant maintenance and the realization of new production capacity, the futures market is expected to continue to oscillate widely in the short term. Attention should be paid to plant maintenance dynamics and unexpected events [15]

Group 1: DFBP Industry Overview - DFBP is primarily used in the polymerization of PEEK, which has applications in electronics, transportation, aerospace, energy, healthcare, and 3D printing [2] - The supply of DFBP is limited, with major production concentrated in China, and the company is currently the largest domestic producer [3] Group 2: Production Capacity and Utilization - The company has added 2,500 tons of DFBP capacity, which has been validated by both domestic and overseas PEEK manufacturers [3] - Current capacity utilization rates for HAP and DFBP are steadily increasing, with ongoing construction of the second phase of the project [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Pricing - Product prices will be adjusted based on raw material costs and market competition, with expected fluctuations in 2025 [4] - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a significant increase in sales volume, leading to higher revenue compared to the previous year [5] Group 4: Profit Margins and Competitive Strategy - The decline in product gross margin in 2024 is attributed to competitive pricing strategies and increased fixed costs per unit due to production ramp-up [5] - The company is focusing on flexible production capacity adjustments to optimize product offerings and enhance profitability [5] Group 5: Future Product Development - HAP is used in high-end cosmetics, with new brands beginning to adopt the product, while HDO is expected to have a larger market demand due to its versatile applications [5] - The company plans to optimize the production structure of its aromatic ketone products and adjust capacity based on market demand [5]

现货信息：43 豆粕各地区现货报价：张家港 2850 元/吨（-30）、日照 2860 元/吨（-30）、 东莞 2870 元/吨（-10）。 市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美贸易达成阶段性协议，但长期矛盾仍存。 （2）国际大豆：市场交易重心转移至北美播种季，巴西大豆进入出口高峰期。 （3）国内豆粕供需面：大豆供给逐渐恢复，油厂开机率提升，豆粕供给预期由紧转为宽松。 随着下游企业安全库存的建立，将转为随用随采，滚动补库的方式。油厂大豆库存回升至 高位，豆粕库存累库速度短期较缓。 参考观点：豆粕短线或区间震荡。 1、现货市场：张家港益江一级豆油 8310 元/吨，较上一交易日涨 40 元/吨。 2、国际大豆：当前时间窗口下，正处美豆播种、省长与南美豆收割、出口季，目前巴西豆 收割基本完成。总体来看，南美新作丰产格局或将大概率成为事实。美国农业部 5 月 US DA 报告显示，2025/26 年度大豆单产预估为 52.5 蒲式耳/英亩，2024/25 年度预估为 50.7 蒲式 耳/英亩。 3、国内产业层面：综合供需端，豆油中期去库周期或逐渐进入尾声阶段，关注后市南美进 口大豆到港、海关检验放行后，豆油库存或低位反 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Zhigao Machinery Co., Ltd. is facing its third round of inquiry from the Beijing Stock Exchange regarding the authenticity of its sales revenue, raising concerns about the company's financial practices and its upcoming IPO [1][4]. Company Overview - Zhigao Machinery, established in 2003, specializes in providing comprehensive solutions for rock drilling and air power, with its main products being drilling rigs and screw compressors [4]. - The company primarily employs a distribution model for sales, with distributors contributing significantly to its revenue [4]. Financial Performance - Revenue from distributors for the years 2022 to 2024 was reported as 622 million, 643 million, and 704 million yuan, accounting for approximately 79% of total revenue during the same period [4]. - Net profits for the same years were 89 million, 104 million, and 105 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 32.93%, 16.31%, and 1.49% respectively [4]. Shareholder and Dividend Practices - The company has a deep binding relationship with its distributors, who hold a 9% stake, contributing 13.14%, 12.19%, and 12.94% to revenue from 2022 to the first half of 2024 [4]. - Zhigao Machinery has distributed over 200 million yuan in dividends since its listing, with more than 16 million yuan paid to the holding platform of its distributors [4]. IPO and Fundraising Plans - Prior to its IPO, the company announced a cash dividend of 64.44 million yuan, which is 62.3% of its 2023 net profit, raising questions about the rationale behind its fundraising adjustments [5]. - The company plans to raise 536 million yuan through its IPO, with funds allocated for the construction of a production line for 300 intelligent drilling rigs, an engineering technology research center, and working capital [5][6]. Production Capacity and Utilization - In the first half of 2024, the company reported a drilling rig capacity utilization rate of 175.23%, but its sales rate had dropped to 87.19% [7]. - The progress of the production line project is only at 5%, with self-funding accounting for just 3.23% of the budget [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly defined, but with short - term support and limited medium - term upside [2] - Fuel oil: High - sulfur cracking spread expected to oscillate at high levels; low - sulfur cracking spread faces pressure to decline from high levels [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Cracking spread faces pressure to decline from high levels [2] - Asphalt: Expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Disk expected to oscillate weakly downward [4] Core Views - The global oil market will shift from a deficit of 300,000 barrels per day in 2024 to a surplus of 640,000 barrels per day, with the expected annual surplus reduced compared to the April report. Short - term factors support oil prices, but medium - term supply - demand pressure limits upside [2] - The demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is relatively strong during the peak season, but the low - sulfur cracking spread may decline. High - sulfur fuel oil demand has offsetting factors, and its cracking spread will oscillate at high levels [2] - The profit of asphalt is prominent, with rising utilization rate this week and expected decline next week. Demand is gradually released in the north and restricted in the south by rainfall. Overall inventory has decreased significantly, and it is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] - The CIF price of domestic liquefied petroleum gas has dropped, and there is still pressure from concentrated arrivals in the first half of May. The import cost support has weakened, and the spot price has room to decline in the short term, with the disk oscillating weakly downward [4] Summary by Category Crude Oil - The global oil market will shift from a deficit to a surplus in 2025, with the expected annual surplus reduced compared to the April report. The weekly global oil inventory decreased by 0.9%, and the destocking rate in the second quarter was 0.4%, lower than expected. Short - term factors support oil prices, but medium - term supply - demand pressure limits upside [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is relatively strong during the peak season, and the Singapore low - sulfur marine fuel spread rose by $3.5 per ton last week. However, the low - sulfur cracking spread may decline due to factors such as the widening east - west spread and domestic capacity expansion. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak but has offsetting factors, and its cracking spread will oscillate at high levels [2] Asphalt - The profit of asphalt is prominent, and the domestic refinery utilization rate increased by 5.8% to 35% this week, with an expected decline next week. The weekly asphalt shipment was 392,000 tons, an increase of 49,000 tons. The overall inventory decreased significantly, and it is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The CIF price of domestic liquefied petroleum gas has dropped, and there is still pressure from concentrated arrivals in the first half of May. The import cost support has weakened, and the refinery gas price has been lowered. The PDH operating rate declined last week, and the spot price has room to decline in the short term, with the disk oscillating weakly downward [4]

Core Viewpoint - Yunda Holdings (002120.SZ) reported stable growth in its express delivery business, with significant increases in revenue and volume, indicating a strong market position and operational efficiency [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In April 2025, the company achieved express service revenue of 4.151 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.84%, and completed a business volume of 2.174 billion parcels, up 13.41% [1] - For the full year 2024, Yunda completed a business volume of 23.78 billion parcels, reflecting a 26.1% year-on-year growth, maintaining a market share of 13.6% [1] - In the first quarter of 2025, the business volume reached 6.08 billion parcels, marking a 22.9% year-on-year increase [1] Operational Efficiency - The company has been focusing on automation, information technology, digitalization, and intelligent transformation, leading to improved capacity utilization and asset turnover efficiency [1] - Core operational costs are now at an industry-leading level due to the implementation of smart tools to optimize the entire operational process [1] Technological Advancements - Yunda is accelerating the deployment of advanced production capabilities, promoting the use of unmanned vehicles, smart delivery cabinets, and automated equipment [2] - The company is constructing new infrastructure such as collection warehouses and grid warehouses based on actual demand, which is expected to enhance overall operational efficiency and service quality [2] Shareholder Confidence - The actual controller's affiliate, Shanghai Luojiesi Investment Management Co., announced plans to increase its stake in the company by 100 million to 200 million yuan, reflecting confidence in the company's fundamentals and valuation [2] Strategic Development - The company emphasizes balanced development across its network and is focused on enhancing four key capabilities: technological, service, business development, and balanced operational capabilities [3] - By improving service quality and operational standards, Yunda aims to enhance customer loyalty and brand premium, thereby establishing a solid competitive advantage in the industry [3] Market Position - As a leading player in the express delivery industry, Yunda maintains a stable market share and continues to experience steady growth in business volume [3] - The ongoing digital transformation is expected to further reduce costs and support the company's long-term development prospects [3]