美国总统特朗普签署"大而美"税收和支出法案 来源：央视新闻 美国智库曼哈顿研究所高级研究员里德尔表示，这可能是自20世纪60年代以来最昂贵的一项 立法。危险在于，在赤字已经大幅增长的基础上，国会又将增加数万亿美元新借款。曾在奥 巴马总统任期内担任经济顾问委员会主席的杰森·弗曼指出，该法案可能使立法者更难控制债 务。 目前，美国国债已高达36.2万亿美元。美国媒体指出，在美国债务已达历史高位的情况下， 该法案将进一步扩大结构性赤字。"美国日益增长的债务负担将惩罚子孙后代。" 此前，由于美国政府债务及利息支出增加，国际信用评级机构穆迪5月下调了美国主权信用评 级，这是第三家下调美国主权信用评级的主要国际评级机构。 "大而美"法案已于本月1日获参议院通过。 当地时间7月4日， 美国总统特朗普签署"大而美"税收和支出法案，使其生效。 美国国会众议院3日下午以218票赞成、214票反对的表决结果通过了总统特朗普推动的"大而 美"法案。美国国内担忧该法案将进一步加剧美国财政赤字与债务风险。 "大而美"法案是特朗普2025年初重返白宫后推出的标志性立法议程。该法案主要内容包括延 长特朗普在其第一个任期内于2017年通过的企 ...

Core Viewpoint - The credit rating agency maintains the long-term credit rating of Changjiang Securities Co., Ltd. at AAA, indicating strong financial health and stability in the company's operations [1][4][5]. Company Overview - Changjiang Securities is a medium-sized listed securities company with a high industry position and a comprehensive risk management system [4][5]. - As of March 2025, the company has a registered capital of 5.53 billion yuan and operates 298 branches nationwide, maintaining a leading position in the industry [4][11]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's operating income slightly decreased year-on-year, while net profit significantly increased, demonstrating strong profitability [4][5]. - As of the end of 2024, the company's total assets amounted to 1717.72 billion yuan, with net capital at 25.74 billion yuan, indicating robust capital strength [8][11]. Rating Outlook - The rating outlook is stable, with expectations for business growth and enhanced competitive strength as the capital market continues to develop [5][6]. - Potential factors for rating upgrades are not applicable, while significant losses or major compliance issues could lead to downgrades [5]. Competitive Advantages - The company has strong capital strength, with a net capital ratio of 72.94% as of the end of 2024, positioning it well within the industry [8]. - The company ranks well in various business segments, with brokerage income ranked 19th, fund distribution commission income ranked 3rd, and asset management income ranked 31st in the industry [5][8]. Shareholder Changes - The company has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for a major shareholder change, which is expected to enhance its resource access and market competitiveness [6][11].

Group 1 - The 2025 Global Digital Economy Conference focused on the integration of credit and digital economy, discussing practical paths for high-quality development [1] - The forum emphasized the importance of technological innovation and ecosystem construction in enhancing the digital economy [1] Group 2 - Cities like Hangzhou, Zhuhai, and Beijing are actively innovating credit systems to empower small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) [2] - Hangzhou has established a comprehensive credit system covering four major areas, accumulating 994 million credit information records and embedding credit checks into 38 business systems [2] - Zhuhai has developed a cross-border credit service platform to support trade cooperation and financial innovation, facilitating access to credit information for over 400,000 market entities [2] Group 3 - Beijing's Tongzhou District is addressing green financing challenges for SMEs by creating a "credit + green finance" ecosystem, integrating environmental performance and compliance into a comprehensive green credit evaluation system [3] - This initiative aims to help financial institutions identify quality clients that meet green lending standards [3] Group 4 - The integration of credit economy and digital economy is seen as beneficial for reducing transaction and management costs, optimizing resource allocation [4] - Experts suggest establishing a business credit system focused on accounts receivable to address the issue of delayed payments among enterprises [4] - New technologies like AI and big data are expected to enhance credit system restructuring, improving risk identification for SMEs [4] Group 5 - The "Beijing Credit Service Industry Development Blue Book (2025)" indicates that by the end of 2024, there were 154 credit institutions registered with the People's Bank of China, with 35 located in Beijing [5] - The credit industry in Beijing provided 22.251 billion credit products and services in 2024, marking a nearly 7% year-on-year growth, with business revenue reaching 8.997 billion yuan, a 28.6% increase [5]

欢迎扫描下方二维码关注： 想要稳步提升信用积分，在行业中脱颖而出，提分关键六步攻略务必收好哦，小编将手把手教你规避扣分点，快速提 升信用等级！ 0 1 第一步：及时精准报送实名信息 2.上传职业证书（税务师/注会等）：每证 加5分个人积分 3.加入行业协会（税协/ 注会协 等）：且按要求采集了涉税行业协会入会信息的，机构 加25分 ，个人 加3分 关键要点： 涉税专业服务机构应当于首次提供涉税专业服务前，如实向税务机关报送机构及其涉税服务人员的基本信息， 并根据实际情况及时更新相关信息。 机构信息采集时要注意： 如实填写机构类别（税务师事务所、律师事务所、会计师事务所或代理记账机构等）、执业许可 证类别及证书 编码。 人员信息采集时要注意： 除姓名、证件号码等必填项外，"入职日期"也别忘，实际从事涉税专业服务业务的必须采集，从 事行政管理的人员可不采集。 常见扣分点： 涉税专业服务机构基本信息发生变更的，应当 自变更之日起30日内 向税务部门报送《涉税专业服务机构（人员）基本信息 采集表》。 涉税专业服务机构暂时停止提供涉税专业服务的，应当于完成或终止全部涉税专业服务协议后向税务部门更改服务信息和 服务状态； ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 城投债方面，截至2025年6月末，我国存量城投债余额为15.32万亿元。2025年6月的城投债发行量达 4796.39亿元，环比增长83.35%，同比减少11.85%；2025年6月的城投主体净融资额为-391.47亿元。 产业债方面，截至2025年6月末，我国存量产业债（狭义口径信用债中的非城投债部分）余额为14.64万亿 元。2025年6月的产业债发行量达8357.22亿元，环比增长52.59%，同比增长38.3%；2025年6月的产业主体 净融资额为3101.1亿元。 2、信用债成交与利差 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 1、 信用债发行与到期 整体来看，截至2025年6月末，我国存量信用债余额为29.96万亿元。2025年6月1日-6月30日，信用债 ...

瑞讯银行：预计欧元区年内至少还将有一次降息 瑞讯银行分析师表示，美越贸易协议发出了一个强烈信号，即对其他国家的关税不会在普遍的10%关口 附近徘徊，而是会更高。特朗普早些时候告诉记者，美国将开始致函各国，详细说明关税税率，可能从 60%或70%到10%和20%不等。 普徕仕经济学家指出，虽然"大而美法案"可以支持经济增长，但结合关税等其他因素，可能为通胀带来 上行风险。由于缺乏处理赤字的计划，财政忧虑可能持续存在，并可能导致美国国债收益率上升和收益 率曲线陡峭化。该法案旨在延续2017年实施的企业和个人减税措施，这些措施原定于今年底到期。通过 此法案可避免美国经历一次大规模名义加税，有助于减少美国商业环境中的不确定性。 穆迪指出，如果日本因选举压力而推出更大规模减税措施，可能会对日本的信用评级带来负面影响，具 体取决于减税的幅度和持续时间。自2014年12月以来，穆迪将日本主权信用评级维持在A1，展望为"稳 定"。 Monex Europe分析师指出，由于市场尚未完全消化英国的财政风险，英镑可能面临进一步的贬值压力。 周三，英国首相基尔·斯塔默在议会没有立即支持财政大臣蕾切尔·里夫斯，这一举动导致了英镑的贬 ...

2025 年 07 月 04 日 宏观专题研究 研究所： 证券分析师： 夏磊 S0350521090004 xial@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 黄金价格波动的底层逻辑 最近一年走势 相关报告 《 金 融 政 策 加 力 稳 市 场 稳 预 期 * 夏 磊 》 — — 2025-05-08 《 政 治 局 会 议 的 五 大 政 策 部 署 * 夏 磊 》 — — 2025-04-25 本篇报告试图回答以下核心问题：1、黄金价格波动的核心逻辑；2、 如何看未来黄金走势。 黄金是一种不可再生资源，被广泛作为消费品、投资资产和避险工 具，兼具货币、商品与金融三重属性。黄金价格波动不仅紧扣全球 经济脉搏，还与实际利率起伏、地缘政治动荡、主要经济体央行货 币政策和购金行为、市场供需关系变化、其他突发性风险事件等因 素密切相关。 黄金价格不仅有周期的波动，也有加速上涨的趋势。1973 年布雷顿 森林体系瓦解后，黄金价格历时35年3个月于2008年3月达到1000 美元/盎司；再经过 12 年 4 个月，于 2020 年 8 月突破 2000 美元/ 盎司；至 2025 年 3 月，仅用约 4 年 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the exposure of four tax fraud cases involving the illegal enjoyment of tax benefits related to R&D expense deductions and small business income tax incentives by tax authorities in various regions including Shaanxi Yan'an, Ningbo, Longyan in Fujian, and Deyang in Sichuan [1] - The cases involved companies falsifying information to obtain tax benefits, such as misclassifying staff as "software engineers" or inflating promotional costs by 5.1 million yuan to reduce taxable income from 12.16 million yuan to 2.95 million yuan [1] - A total of 31 cases of tax fraud related to tax benefits have been exposed by tax authorities this year, indicating a trend towards increased scrutiny and enforcement against such fraudulent activities [1] Group 2 - Experts emphasize that tax incentives like R&D expense deductions and support for small businesses are intended to provide real financial benefits to legitimate businesses, and fraudulent claims undermine fair market competition [2] - It is advised that businesses should correctly understand tax incentive policies and consult tax authorities when in doubt to avoid illegal practices [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the changing landscape of investment strategies in response to the declining interest rates and the impact of geopolitical events, particularly the US-China trade tensions, on various asset classes. Group 1: Economic Environment and Investment Strategy - The current economic environment is characterized by a significant decline in inflation, with CPI showing negative growth for four consecutive months starting February 2025, making it easier for individuals to maintain purchasing power without active investment [1][2] - The interest rates for one-year deposits at major banks have dropped to 0.9%, leading to a diminishing return on traditional savings, which poses challenges for individuals seeking to grow their wealth through savings alone [2][3] - The article emphasizes the importance of diversified asset allocation in a highly uncertain global environment, advocating for a strategy of not putting all eggs in one basket [2][3] Group 2: Asset Classes Overview - A-shares, gold, government bonds, and US Treasuries are identified as the core asset classes for domestic investors, each with distinct risk-return profiles [3] - A-shares are seen as having optimistic potential, contingent on effective domestic policy support for the economy, while the bond market is expected to have limited upside and increased volatility compared to 2024 [3][4] - Gold is recommended for accumulation rather than speculation, as its price may face short-term pressures despite having long-term upward potential due to factors like a weakening dollar and potential tariff increases [3][10] Group 3: A-shares Market Analysis - The US-China trade conflict is identified as the primary "black swan" event affecting the A-share market, with significant market reactions observed following escalations in trade tensions [4][8] - Despite initial pessimism regarding economic performance post-trade conflict, recent data indicates a stabilization in manufacturing and external trade, contributing to a recovery in A-share prices [6][8] - The article notes that the market's future performance will depend heavily on the resilience of financial stocks and the overall economic outlook [6][8] Group 4: Gold Market Dynamics - The perception of gold as an investment has become more complex, with recent price fluctuations reflecting heightened sensitivity to market conditions and geopolitical developments [10][11] - The article highlights that while gold prices surged earlier in the year, the current market sentiment is cautious, with predictions of potential declines in gold prices due to stronger US economic indicators [10][14] - Long-term prospects for gold remain positive, particularly as a hedge against the declining credibility of the dollar, but short-term volatility is expected [14][16] Group 5: Bond Market Insights - The bond market has shifted from a bullish to a more cautious stance, with lower returns expected in 2025 compared to the previous year, making it more suitable for tactical trading rather than buy-and-hold strategies [17][19] - The article suggests that investors should focus on yield movements in the 10-year government bond market to inform their trading decisions, as the relationship between bond prices and yields is inversely correlated [21][23] - The US Treasury market is under scrutiny due to rising yields, which are increasingly viewed as risk assets rather than safe havens, indicating a need for careful investment strategies [23][25]

Core Viewpoint - The chairman of Baichuan Co., Zheng Tiejiang, is under investigation, causing stock price fluctuations and raising concerns about the company's governance and financial stability [2][3]. Company Situation - Baichuan Co. announced that its actual controller and chairman, Zheng Tiejiang, is being investigated by the Jiangyin Municipal Supervisory Committee, but the company claims that its production and operations remain normal [2][3]. - Zheng Tiejiang and his wife hold a combined 15.54% stake in Baichuan Co., making them the actual controllers of the company [2]. - Following the announcement, Baichuan Co.'s stock price dropped by 5.74% on July 2, closing at 7.06 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 4.195 billion CNY [2]. Credit Rating and Regulatory Attention - New Century Rating, the credit rating agency for Baichuan Co., is closely monitoring the situation and has noted that the company's management team is still functioning normally and that control has not changed [3]. - Baichuan Co. has previously faced regulatory scrutiny, including a warning from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in May for discrepancies in its financial reporting [3]. Financial Performance - Baichuan Co.'s financial performance has shown significant volatility, with net profit dropping from 226 million CNY in 2021 to a loss of 466 million CNY in 2023 [3]. - In 2024, the company reported a turnaround with total revenue of 5.556 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 35.10%, and a net profit of 109 million CNY, marking a 123.31% increase [4]. - The improvement in 2024 was attributed to rising prices of chemical products and the release of production capacity in Ningxia, leading to an increase in gross margin from 1.78% in 2023 to 10.14% [4]. - In the first quarter of 2025, Baichuan Co. continued its growth trend, achieving revenue of 1.45 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 23.07%, and a net profit of 42 million CNY, up 17.88% [4].