Apple Inc AAPL investors breathed a much-needed sigh of relief on Friday when the Trump administration announced a decision to exempt iPhones, iPads, and Macs from the latest wave of reciprocal tariffs. This might have saved the company from a near-term cost storm.But according to JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee, don't mistake this breather for a green light to go full bull – at least not yet.Exemptions Offer Margin Relief, But It's Not All ClearWhile the hardware tariff exemptions will help reduce immedi ...

Export Data Overview - In March 2025, China's exports increased by 12.4% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the expected 3.5% and reversing the previous month's decline of -3%[3] - Imports in March 2025 decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, aligning with expectations and contrasting with a 1.5% increase in the previous month[3] Factors Influencing Export Performance - The primary driver for the March export surge was seasonal effects, as early Spring and a low base from the previous year contributed to higher year-on-year figures[3] - "Rush exports" occurred ahead of tariff increases, with significant contributions from ASEAN, Latin America, and Africa, collectively boosting exports by 4.8 percentage points[3] Future Export Trends - Export growth is expected to decline in Q2 2025, potentially falling between -5% to -10% year-on-year due to the impact of tariff escalations and weakening external demand[4] - Recent logistics data indicates a significant drop in port cargo volumes, suggesting a slowdown in export activity[4] Potential Upside Factors - Signals of tariff exemptions may provide some relief, with an estimated $100 billion worth of products eligible for exemptions, potentially easing export pressures[5] - Continued "rush exports" and shifts in trade patterns towards ASEAN and other regions may sustain some export momentum[5] Risks and Policy Responses - The government is likely to implement policies aimed at mitigating employment risks due to external shocks, focusing on high-tech manufacturing sectors with significant export exposure to the U.S.[7] - If tariffs are enforced as planned, the direct impact on foreign trade revenues could exceed 1.2 trillion yuan for affected industries[7]

作者：张云杰 陶川 如我们在前期报告《 关税下出口：已知压力和未知风险 》中所指出的， 3 月还观察不到出口的下行压力，"早春"、低基数等因素将推高 当月出口同比。 但在关税升级后，后续出口将进入"新范式"。 如何看待出口的已知变化和未知风险？我们围绕以下四个问题展开回答： Q ： 3 月出口大超预期，源自哪些因素？ A ："季节性"脉冲是核心原因。 基于历史经验，春节时点靠前往往会压低 1-2 月出口、抬高 3 月出口表现（可参照 2006 、 2014 、 2017 年等春节时点与今年相近的年份， 3 月出口环比均为历史较高水平）。 今年不仅是"早春"，而且和去年形成"错位"（ 2024 年恰好是"晚 春"， 3 月出口环比较低），这些因素共同放大了 3 月出口同比读数。 从实际数据看， 3 月出口环比略高于"季节性"水平。 其次，"对等关税"落地前夕，出现了一部分"抢出口"需求。 这一因素可能解释了 3 月出口好于"季节性"的这部分。 一方面， 3 月外需是边际回落的，全球制造业 PMI 较上月下滑 0.3 个百分点至 50.3% 。 另一方面， 从国别上看，主要是对一些"转口"贸易区域的出口增速大幅反 ...

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector remains in an unstable state despite the U.S. postponing tariffs, with ongoing uncertainty affecting corporate decision-making [1] Group 1: Tariff Impact - The Trump administration's exemptions on certain technology product tariffs have not stabilized the industry [1] - Tariffs are still higher than at the beginning of the year, contributing to persistent uncertainty [1] Group 2: Corporate Decision-Making - The decision-making processes of companies are unlikely to return to normal due to the prevailing uncertainties [1] - There is insufficient valuation support for investors to overlook macroeconomic noise as stock prices approach typical valuation ranges [1]

智通财经APP获悉，关于关税豁免的消息，在周末反转了多次。关于美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克 (Howard Lutnick)最新的公开发言，有自媒体总结如下：豁免(果链英伟达链)只是一两个月而已，不确定 性仍然存在。对于"免征部分商品对等关税"动作的背后逻辑，前白宫经济顾问委员会主席贾里德·伯恩 斯坦表示，这是因为特朗普政府正逐渐认识到他们一些行为及其产生的影响的现实。当然在股市中已经 看到了这一点，但他们对于承受股市数万亿美元财富损失的忍耐限度相当高。 一 (1)记者问卢特尼克，这个周五的豁免是不是真的?卢特尼克：是真的。 (2)卢特尼克表示，周五的iphone这些，会被"对等关税"这个大类豁免，这个没错。但是会被包括在"半 导体/制药"的小类关税(这些细则一两个月左右会出来); (3)记者还特意强调了iphone，这是不是也被包括?卢特尼克: 是的，iphone这些也会被包括在半导体行业 的关税。 (4)卢特尼克强调，这是为了保证美国的行业安全 ，同时保证reshoring可以成功。所以这个豁免，并不 是永久性豁免。 另有媒体评论称： 豁免这次的背后，证实了一件事，Bessent大概率回到了贸易谈判的核心 ...

Group 1 - Apple-related stocks collectively opened higher, with notable increases: High伟电子 up 12.08% to HKD 23.2, 富智康集团 up 9.46% to HKD 0.81, 丘钛科技 up 8.2% to HKD 6.73, 比亚迪电子 up 6.53% to HKD 35.1, 舜宇光学 up 6.18% to HKD 69.6, and 瑞声科技 up 6.17% to HKD 38.7 [1] - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced that the federal government has agreed to exempt electronic products such as smartphones, computers, and chips from the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" [1] - The exemption applies to electronic products entering the U.S. after April 5, and companies can seek refunds for tariffs already paid [1] Group 2 - 华泰证券 believes that the impact on the Apple supply chain in China is limited, primarily because many supply chain companies have production capacity or sales networks in Southeast Asia [2] - Brands have prepared sufficient inventory to support U.S. demand in the short term, which may limit supply chain price pressures [2] - The stock price corrections have already reflected most potential negative impacts, and there is optimism for valuation recovery as tariff policy effects diminish and the long-term competitiveness of Chinese companies is recognized [2]

撰 文 / 张霖郁 设 计 / 琚 佳 来 源 / New York Times、CNBC 作者：Agnes Chang, Lazaro Gamio and Pablo Robles 惊心动魄的10天。 从美国当地时间4月2日特朗普（Donald J. Trump）对全球贸易伙伴加征关税开始，再到中国政府的 强势回应，目前的结果是美国共新增对华关税145%，其中125%为特朗普定义的对等关税，而之前 分别于2月以及3月两次增加的10%关税，他称是针对中国向美出口芬太尼的处罚性关税。 同时，美国时间4月11日，特朗普政府突然又对来自于中国的手机、电脑等电子产品进行了关税豁 免，对等关税125%不再加收。 中国方面，我们在4月11日作出回应，对美商品加增至125%，并且指出"鉴于在目前关税水平下， 美国输华商品已无市场接受可能性，如果美方后续对中国输美商品继续加征关税，中方将不予理 会。 " 这场贸易战，给依赖中国供应商的美国企业以及依赖对美出口的中国企业带来了巨大的不确定性。 两国近期的报复性措施甚至导致关税成本高于商品本身价格。 但贸易律师、报关行和进口商表示，由于贸易规则不断变化，并非所有产品都会被征收天价 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Customs announced a waiver for certain products from tariffs imposed under the "reciprocal tariffs" executive order, including computers, semiconductor components, smartphones, GPUs, routers, displays, and storage devices [1][3] - Products manufactured or assembled in China, such as iPhones, PCs, servers, and semiconductors, will not be subject to the previously increased tariffs of up to 125% [2][3] - The tariff exemption aims to alleviate price pressures on U.S. consumers and reduce the impact on the technology sector, as many consumer electronics are not produced domestically [3] Group 2 - The tariff relief is expected to ease supply chain pressures, lower trade costs for related industries, enhance export competitiveness, and boost market confidence, positively impacting the valuation of technology and electronics manufacturing sectors [3] - Key companies that may benefit include semiconductor leader SMIC, memory chip manufacturer Hua Hong Semiconductor, consumer electronics giant Sunny Optical, AAC Technologies, and smart terminal OEM BYD Electronics [3]

标普500指数涨幅收窄至不足2.8%，道指涨1000点涨幅收窄至2.5%，纳指涨497点涨幅不足3.2%。 美国贸易办公室（USTR）主管Jamieson Greer宣称，总统特朗普已经明确表态，没有关税豁免。 ...

美国贸易代表贾格里尔：关税没有"例外和豁免" 没有谈判时间表 金十数据4月8日讯，美国贸易代表贾格里尔在参议院作证时强调，更高的关税将于明天生效。格里尔 说，特朗普已经明确表示，他不会在短期内采取任何关税豁免措施。"总统已经向我和其他人明确表 示，他不打算排除和豁免，特别是考虑到行动的性质，"他说。格里尔还称："因此，总统表示，他愿意 与希望与美国进行对等贸易的各方进行谈判。我们没有设定任何具体的时间表，因为正如你所指出的， 参议员，结果比人为地为我们设定一些东西更重要。" ...