Core Viewpoint - The global central banks must respond "relatively strongly" when inflation deviates from targets, focusing on avoiding measures where "the cost of errors far exceeds the benefits" rather than seeking perfect solutions [1] Group 1: Central Bank Responses - Central banks need to avoid allowing inflation expectations to deviate from their targets, as persistent inflation could become permanent [1] - It is crucial for central banks to anchor long-term inflation expectations and ensure short-term expectations perform well to bring public perception of future price trends back to target levels within "a few years" [1] Group 2: Economic Impact of Trade Policies - President Trump's comprehensive tariffs and erratic trade policies complicate the Federal Reserve's task of controlling inflation while avoiding excessive cooling of the already impacted U.S. economy [2] - The Federal Reserve has maintained the policy interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% since December, awaiting clearer information on the economic and price impacts of Trump's tariffs [2] Group 3: Market Stability - Despite significant market shocks and volatility following Trump's announcement of comprehensive tariffs, there has not been a "collapse" in the financial markets [2] - There has been substantial capital flow between buyers and sellers, indicating that the market is functioning well [3] - The level of reserves in the U.S. is deemed "clearly sufficient," providing a buffer against unforeseen shocks [3]

瑞银亚太区总裁伊克巴尔·汗：预计市场波动将持续，利率将下降。 ...

面对不断上升的财政压力，英国政府正在转向短期借贷以降低利息成本。 英国债务管理办公室（DMO）上月表示，将把2025/26财年债务发行规模增加50亿英镑至3090亿英镑，但会减少100亿英镑长期金边债券发行，转 而增加短期国库券发行。 据英国《金融时报》5月27日报道，DMO负责人Jessica Pulay称，因机构投资者对长期国债的需求不断下滑，该机构正在逐步降低对长期国债的依 赖。目前，短期债务融资成本更低，这对今年发债成本飙升、财政捉襟见肘的英国工党政府而言至关重要。 尽管英国债务存量的平均期限为14年，但加拿大皇家银行资本市场（RBC Capital Markets）分析师预测，今年7月至9月期间发行的英国政府债券 的平均期限将为9年左右，创历史新低。 当前的市场行情也反映了这一趋势。数据显示，英国30年期国债收益率上周攀升至5.48%，较年初上涨0.37个百分点，接近1998年以来的最高水 平。与两年期国债的利差已扩大至近1.5个百分点，而两年多前这一利差还为负值。 而英国两年期国债收益率约为3.98%，较30年期品种低逾150个基点。 需求退坡，长债失宠 Pulay表示，英国今年长期金边债券与短期 ...

Group 1 - The annual meeting of global central banks in Tokyo will focus on "new challenges in monetary policy," addressing weak economic growth and persistent inflation pressures [1][2] - The meeting will feature key speakers including Kazuo Ueda, the Governor of the Bank of Japan, and Agustin Carstens, General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements [1][2] - The discussions will center around the impact of tariffs on economic downturn risks, particularly influenced by U.S. policies under President Trump [2][4] Group 2 - Central banks are facing intertwined pressures from sustained inflation, economic downturn risks, and market volatility, with a particular focus on the implications of U.S. tariffs [2][4] - The Bank of Japan is maintaining a gradual rate hike path, but recent global economic changes have raised doubts about its tightening pace [2][7] - The meeting will also address the effectiveness and limitations of unconventional monetary tools used during economic downturns [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is currently in a "wait-and-see" mode, as rising tariffs are expected to push inflation higher, complicating its policy decisions [4][5] - European Central Bank officials are considering pausing further easing measures due to re-emerging inflation pressures, despite plans for a rate cut in June [6] - The Bank of Japan has lowered its growth forecast due to U.S. tariffs and is signaling a potential pause in its rate hike cycle, while still aiming for a core inflation target of 2% [7]

美联储古尔斯比：仍然认为在市场波动之下经济依然强劲。如果关税和不确定性不对通胀构成威胁，利 率最终可能会下降。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The surge in U.S. Treasury yields is primarily driven by escalating national debt and weak demand in recent bond auctions, reflecting investors' demand for higher returns amid increasing fiscal risks [1][3][4]. Group 1: Treasury Yield Trends - As of May 22, 2025, the yields for U.S. Treasury bonds are as follows: 10-year at 4.6%, 20-year at 5.109%, and 30-year at 5.10%, indicating a significant rise in yields [3]. - The weak demand for the 20-year Treasury auction, requiring a yield of 5.047% to attract buyers, highlights declining market confidence following Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA1 [3][4]. Group 2: Fiscal Challenges - By 2025, approximately $9.2 trillion of U.S. debt will mature, representing about one-third of all circulating market debt, with an estimated 55% to 60% maturing before July 2025 [4]. - The total U.S. national debt is approximately $36.21 trillion, with interest payments projected to be around $684 billion for the fiscal year 2025, accounting for 16% of total federal spending [4]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise to 124.4% by the end of 2025, indicating that federal borrowing is significantly outpacing economic growth [6]. - Concerns about fiscal sustainability and political gridlock are diminishing long-term confidence in the U.S. dollar, especially with increasing credit quality risks [7]. Group 4: Market Impact - Rising Treasury yields and recent bond market volatility reflect investor concerns about the U.S. government's ability to refinance large debts in a high-interest environment, which could pressure the dollar and stock markets [7]. - The S&P 500 index has shown strong recovery driven by optimism in U.S.-China trade talks, but uncertainties surrounding future negotiations and fiscal concerns pose risks to the sustainability of this rebound [8]. Group 5: Technical Analysis - The S&P 500 index is approaching a critical psychological level at 6000 points, with recent pullbacks indicating weakening momentum [9]. - The 5700-point level is becoming a significant support point; a breach below this level could trigger further downward pressure on the U.S. stock market [9].

金十数据5月19日讯，London Capital Group分析师Matt Basi在一份报告中表示，穆迪评级公司将美国的 信用评级从Aaa调至Aa1，在经历了4月份的混乱之后，这可能令5月份相对平静的市场重新陷入波动。 穆迪下调美国信用评级后，市场波动可能卷土重来 ...

北京时间18日晚间消息，美国财长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）回应穆迪下调美国信用评级称，他不太相 信穆迪，穆迪评级"落后于指标"。贝森特称，美国GDP增长速度将超过债务增长速度。 关于关税，贝森特表示，会达成很多地区性的协议。贝森特称，美国正将关税讨论集中在18个关键贸易伙伴 上。贝森特还表示，他周六确实与沃尔玛首席执行官麦克米伦进行了交谈，沃尔玛将承担部分关税。 而关于美联储的立场，贝森特表示："美联储并未断言关税会导致通胀，他们只是说不确定，目前处于观望模 式。" 值得关注的是，近期，随着贸易紧张局势的缓和，美股持续反弹，不过也有华尔街分析师发出警告称，反弹可 能过度。到目前为止，贸易框架还远未达成协议。如果没有具体的贸易解决方案，市场波动可能会再次出现。 美国财长发声 贝森特声称，降级与拜登政府的支出政策有关，该政府曾将其吹捧为对优先事项的投资，包括应对气候变化和 增加医疗保险覆盖面。"我们不是在过去100天里陷入这种状况的。" 贝森特称，这是拜登政府及过去四年继承 的支出所致，"我们决心削减开支并推动经济增长"。 贝森特还透露，他周六与沃尔玛首席执行官道格·麦克米伦（Doug McMi ...

Group 1 - Berkshire Hathaway's Q1 2023 13F filing revealed a complete exit from Citigroup (14.63 million shares) and Nu Holdings, along with a reduction in Bank of America holdings (48.66 million shares) while maintaining its Apple position (300 million shares) unchanged [1] - The company significantly increased its stake in Constellation Brands by 6.38 million shares, representing a 113.5% increase, and also added 760,000 shares in Occidental Petroleum and 860,000 shares in Pool Corp [1] - Notably, Berkshire did not initiate any new positions in Q1 2023, raising concerns among market analysts regarding its investment strategy [1] Group 2 - As of March 31, 2025, Berkshire's cash, cash equivalents, and U.S. Treasury bills increased from $212.59 billion at the end of 2024 to $219.90 billion, representing an increase in the cash holding ratio from 42.77% to 44.29% of its insurance investment portfolio [3] - Market analysts, including Morgan Stanley's Chief Investment Officer Lisa Shalett, indicated that the slowdown in revenue growth among the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks and broader earnings momentum could limit further market gains [3] - There are concerns that ongoing effects of Trump-era policies may lead to increased market volatility [3]

摩根大通CEO戴蒙：我预计市场波动将持续。 ...