新华财经北京11月23日电（记者钟奕高畅）近日，一股强冷空气自西向东影响我国。从北到南大部分百姓套 上了羽绒服，寒风之中能源保供大考拉开帷幕。 暖气热不热、用电稳不稳、生产会不会受影响，成为对能源保供一线的"冰与火"之问。 电力保供：高负荷迎峰度冬 "气温每下降1摄氏度，负荷就会增加30万千瓦。"在国网北京电力调度控制中心，调控中心系统运行处董楠紧 盯着跳动的数字。自北京正式供暖以来，电网负荷持续攀升，今冬最大负荷预计将达到2900万千瓦，较历史 峰值增长超8%。 11月3日，荆门市沙洋县，国网湖北荆门供电公司变电运维人员检查新港储能电站关键设备，确保设备安全稳 定运行。新华网发黄林摄 一边是电网高负荷，一边是今冬更加复杂的天气形势。根据预测，近年来我国雨带和覆冰逐年北抬，华北、 东北等地冬季出现大面积输电线路覆冰灾害情况可能性增大。 塞北寒风中，呼和浩特铁路局姑家堡站灯火通明。调车长刘志刚在列车间穿梭，"车流密集时，必须争分夺 秒，完成列车重新编组。"他呼出的白气在零下气温中瞬间凝结。 "得像下棋，提前想好后面三五步。"友谊水库站长王学惠说。精密计划与灵活指挥相结合，确保每一列电煤 列车"快进快出"。 煤炭 ...

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the need to implement the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session and ensure the achievement of economic and social development goals for the year [1] - The focus is on optimizing traditional industries and nurturing emerging industries through deep integration of technological and industrial innovation [1] - There is a strong emphasis on enhancing the resilience and quality of industrial and supply chains, as well as promoting collaboration among enterprises, academia, and research institutions [1] Group 2 - The importance of leveraging government investment to stimulate effective investment and promote high-quality development of private investment is highlighted [2] - Ensuring stable energy production and supply during the winter heating season is critical, with a focus on coal, electricity, oil, and gas regulation [2] - The success of local ecological restoration efforts is acknowledged, with a call to share and promote effective practices for environmental protection [2]

Group 1: Energy Supply Challenges - A strong cold air mass is impacting energy supply across China, raising concerns about heating and electricity stability during winter [1] - The maximum electricity load in Beijing is expected to reach 29 million kilowatts, an increase of over 8% compared to historical peaks [2] - The National Energy Administration is implementing a "one province, one policy" approach to guide key regions in energy supply management [4] Group 2: Coal Supply Management - Coal is identified as a critical component for energy supply stability, with daily coal dispatch maintaining above 12.3 million tons since October [7] - The National Energy Administration emphasizes the importance of monitoring coal and gas supply and ensuring quality and quantity in coal supply [7] - The logistics for coal transportation are being optimized to ensure timely delivery to power plants [5][7] Group 3: Natural Gas Supply Enhancements - The capacity of the largest gas storage facility in central and eastern China has been expanded to 65 million cubic meters per day, sufficient for 30 million households [8] - Key natural gas pipeline projects have been completed, enhancing the distribution network and ensuring adequate supply for winter heating [8][10] - The daily peak capacity of the gas network has increased by 23% compared to last winter, ensuring a robust supply for the heating season [10]

Core Insights - The company is proactively preparing for extreme cold weather to ensure stable energy supply during winter [1][2] Group 1: Preparation Measures - The company began preparations for cold weather in early October, completing all frost prevention measures by the end of October [1] - Effective frost prevention strategies included wrapping equipment with insulation, installing heating cables, and sealing openings [1] - Departments are closely monitoring weather changes to minimize the impact of extreme cold on equipment operations [1] Group 2: Equipment Safety Checks - Following the first snowfall, the company organized a special inspection of frost prevention measures on November 5-6 [1] - The inspection focused on the integrity of insulation materials and the operation of heating systems to prevent freezing [1] - Increased frequency of equipment monitoring was implemented, particularly for critical components like insulators and bushings [1] Group 3: Human Resource Management - The company emphasizes the importance of personnel skills and safety awareness in extreme weather conditions [2] - Standardized operation supervision and assessment for operational and maintenance staff are being reinforced [2] - Training includes practical assessments and simulations to ensure staff are well-prepared for winter operational challenges [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For both the short - term and medium - term, the views on both coking coal and coke are "sideways trading". The intraday view is "sideways trading with a weak bias", and the overall reference view is a "sideways trading approach" [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **Price Trend**: Since November, coking coal has been in a continuous correction [5]. - **Core Logic**: The divergence on the supply side has increased. On one hand, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized energy supply guarantee, and the output of 523 coking coal mines improved week - on - week last week. On the other hand, there is a lack of new policy incentives for the coal industry after the production capacity verification in July. The strong supply - side expectations have slowed down, and the upward breakthrough drive is insufficient. However, the expectations of the Politburo meeting in December and the reduction of coal mine output at the end of the year remain to be fulfilled [5]. Coke (J) - **Price Trend**: The fourth round of price increases for coke has been difficult to implement [6]. - **Core Logic**: In the spot market, the atmosphere of coking coal spot has cooled down. In terms of supply and demand, as of the week of November 14, the total daily output of coke from independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants decreased week - on - week, while the daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased week - on - week. The short - term fundamentals have improved, but the sustainability is limited, and there are still concerns about demand [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Coke**: The short - term fundamentals of coke have improved, but the sustainability is expected to be limited. There are still concerns about demand, and the market's divergence on the previous major upward driver, "cost - side support," has increased. The coke futures are in a volatile correction. As of the week of November 14, the total daily output of coke from independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants decreased by 0.51 tons week - on - week to 109.17 tons, while the daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.66 tons week - on - week to 236.88 tons. The fourth price increase of coke was difficult to implement, and the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1,670 yuan/ton, with expected improvement in coking enterprise profits [6][32]. - **Coking Coal**: Since November, coking coal has been in a continuous correction mainly due to increased divergence on the supply side. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized energy supply guarantee, and the output of 523 coking coal mines improved last week. Also, there is a lack of new policy incentives for the coal industry's anti - involution since July. The strong supply - side expectation of coking coal has slowed down. After the coking coal futures reached the upper limit of the oscillation range at the end of October, the driving force for further upward breakthrough was insufficient. However, the expectations of the Politburo meeting in December and the contraction of coal mine output at the end of the year remain to be realized, and attention should be paid to the support of the main contract at the lower limit of the oscillation range [6][32]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - On November 19, the Office of the Command for in - depth Pollution Prevention and Control in Jiangsu Province issued a notice to start a yellow alert for heavy pollution weather in 7 cities including Xuzhou from 10:00 on November 20 [8]. - On November 20, the prices of coking coal in the Tangshan market remained stable, with the price of prime coking coal at 1,645 yuan/ton and fat coal at 1,630 yuan/ton, both ex - factory prices including cash and tax [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port Quasi - First - Grade Coke (Warehouse - out) | 1,670 yuan/ton | +3.09% | +6.37% | - 1.18% | - 6.70% | | Qingdao Port Quasi - First - Grade Coke (Warehouse - out) | 1,490 yuan/ton | - 2.61% | - 3.87% | - 8.02% | - 11.83% | | Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coking Coal | 1,330 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 4.32% | +12.71% | - 3.62% | | Jingtang Port Australian Coking Coal | 1,600 yuan/ton | - 0.62% | - 3.61% | +7.38% | - 4.76% | | Jingtang Port Shanxi Coking Coal | 1,830 yuan/ton | 0.00% | +5.17% | +19.61% | +7.65% | [10] Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory from 2019 - 2025 [13][15][17]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts present the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel mills' coking coal, and all - sample independent coking plants' coking coal from 2019 - 2025 [19][22][24]. - **Other Charts**: Include domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and bar procurement, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation conditions [26][28][31]. Market Outlook The analysis of coke and coking coal is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the short - term improvement but limited sustainability of coke fundamentals and the continuous correction of coking coal due to supply - side divergence [32].

Core Insights - Inner Mongolia has made significant progress in energy supply security, green transformation, and industrial innovation since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, establishing itself as a crucial energy and strategic resource base for the nation [1][2] Energy Supply Security - The region has successfully increased coal production capacity by 179 million tons and added 77 million tons of new capacity, fulfilling over one-third of the national coal supply task, ranking first in the country [2] - Electricity generation capacity has been boosted by 136 million kilowatts, with a 63% increase in electricity exports [2] - Oil and gas production has also seen growth, with crude oil output reaching 3.2 million tons and natural gas production at 31.9 billion cubic meters, maintaining over 60% of export volume [2] Renewable Energy Development - Inner Mongolia has led the nation in renewable energy development, surpassing 100 million kilowatts of installed capacity ahead of schedule, and has now exceeded 150 million kilowatts as of October [2][3] - The annual electricity generation from renewable sources has exceeded 200 billion kilowatt-hours, making it the highest in the country [2] Traditional Energy Industry Upgrade - The region is modernizing traditional energy industries through high-tech applications, with 61% of coal mines being green and 74% smart mines as of September [3] - New coal power plants are being built with advanced technologies, while outdated capacities are being phased out [3] Energy Production Capacity - The region is fostering new energy production capabilities, with significant advancements in hydrogen and storage technologies, including 60,000 tons of green hydrogen capacity, accounting for nearly 50% of the national total [3] - New energy is driving the development of new industries, creating a synergistic effect with sectors like computing power and new materials [3] Energy Sector Reforms - The region has streamlined approval processes for renewable energy and grid projects, reducing processing times from six months to approximately three [3] - A market-oriented pricing reform for renewable energy was initiated, with the eastern power market becoming the fifth in the country to operate formally [3] Renewable Energy Consumption Solutions - Inner Mongolia is addressing renewable energy consumption challenges through a three-dimensional approach, focusing on external sales, local consumption, and enhancing regulatory capabilities [4][5] - The region has established partnerships for high-voltage green electricity trading with eight provinces, achieving nearly 80 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity exports in the first ten months of the year, a year-on-year increase of over 60% [5] - Local consumption of renewable energy has also grown, with approximately 150 billion kilowatt-hours consumed domestically, reflecting a growth of over 20% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing a downward trend in both futures and spot prices, with expectations of increased supply and cautious trading behavior among merchants [5] Supply - As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of 88 coal mines was 84.53%, a week-on-week increase of 0.54% - The weekly raw coal production reached 8.5381 million tons, up by 54,200 tons from the previous week - The raw coal inventory stood at 1.4219 million tons, increasing by 60,600 tons week-on-week [2] - By November 19, the capacity utilization rate of 523 sample coal mines was 86.9%, with a daily raw coal output of 1.934 million tons, an increase of 15,000 tons from the previous week [2] Demand - As of November 13, the average daily coke production from independent coking plants was 630,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons week-on-week - The average daily pig iron production was 2.3688 million tons, an increase of 26,600 tons week-on-week, while the blast furnace operating rate was 82.81%, down by 0.32% [3] Inventory - Total coking coal inventory (including mines, washing plants, coking plants, steel mills, ports, and border areas) increased by 166,000 tons to 37.414 million tons as of November 13 - Inventory at 523 mines rose by 7,100 tons to 3.847 million tons, while washing plants saw an increase of 12,300 tons to 4.877 million tons [4] Market Dynamics - The futures market for coking coal is showing a weak downward trend, with spot prices in Shanxi declining and an increase in the rate of failed auctions, indicating cautious behavior from traders [5] - The resumption of production in some coal mines in Shanxi is expected to lead to a slight increase in coking coal supply, while imports of Mongolian coal have significantly increased since November [5] - The overall inventory situation shows a slight increase in coal mines, washing plants, and ports, while coking plants and steel mills are seeing a decrease [5]

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal futures market has shifted from strong to weak, with the main contract dropping from 1318 CNY/ton to around 1159 CNY/ton, a decline of over 12%, underperforming steel and iron ore [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Multiple factors have contributed to the decline in coking coal prices, including a shift in supply expectations following a meeting by the National Development and Reform Commission regarding energy supply for the heating season [1] - Weak demand is evident as steel prices decline, leading to reduced profits for steel mills and temporary production cuts, which in turn decreases the demand for coking coal [1][3] - The price increase of thermal coal has slowed down, with some coal mines even reducing prices, putting additional pressure on coking coal prices [1] Group 2: Profitability and Production - Despite the fourth round of coking coal price increases, the profitability of coking enterprises has not improved, with average profits for independent coking plants reported at -34 CNY per ton [2] - The proportion of profitable coking plants has decreased to 32.19%, indicating that most coking enterprises are operating at a loss, leading to reduced production [2] - Daily average coking coal production has declined, with the capacity utilization rate dropping to 71.64%, reflecting a decrease in production activity since mid-September [2] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The long-term outlook for coking coal demand remains weak, with a significant drop in the proportion of profitable steel mills, now at 38.96%, marking a continuous decline over 14 weeks [3] - Limited downstream demand in the steel industry, particularly in construction and manufacturing, suggests that coking coal demand will continue to decrease [3] Group 4: Supply Recovery - Domestic coal supply has started to recover, with the utilization rate of coking coal mines reaching 86.28% and daily average output hitting a new high since October [4] - Import volumes of coal have also seen a recovery, with significant amounts reported at the Ganqimaodu port, indicating a potential increase in supply [4] - The overall supply-demand balance is shifting, with expectations of continued pressure on coking coal prices in the short term due to weak demand and recovering supply [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overall, finished steel products are supported by raw material costs at the lower end, but their upward drive is suppressed by inventory and demand. They are expected to trade in a range, with rebar likely between 2900 - 3200 and hot - rolled coil between 3100 - 3400. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking speed and downstream consumption, and the risk lies in the possible negative feedback caused by the decline in steel enterprise profitability [3]. - The iron ore fundamentals show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with total inventory continuously increasing, but a structural shortage of deliverable products. The price lacks a strong trend driver. The port inventory is accumulating above the seasonal level, but the inventory of deliverable brand coarse powder is decreasing, supporting the basis to strengthen. The coking coal price decline provides a seesaw support for the ore price, but the subsequent recovery of coking coal valuation may squeeze the iron ore [21]. - In the short term, the coal - coke futures and spot prices may face adjustment pressure due to factors such as the high spot price increase, weak downstream acceptance, and seasonal weakening of demand. In the long - term, the supply elasticity of coking coal will be restricted by policies, and the winter storage demand is expected to limit the downward space of coking coal prices [31]. - Ferroalloys face a fundamental situation of high inventory and weak demand. Although the cost center may shift down due to the impact of energy supply - guarantee policies on coking coal prices, the downward space is limited, and they are expected to fluctuate weakly [44]. - Soda ash is mainly priced by cost. Without production cuts, its valuation has limited upward elasticity. The medium - and long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the upper - and middle - stream inventory is high, restricting the price, but there is cost support at the lower end [53]. - The glass market has weak production and sales recently, and the high inventory in the middle stream brings significant spot pressure. The 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, but there is cost support and policy expectations in the long - term [77]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Price Data**: On November 19, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3070, 3116, and 3162 respectively; those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3277, 3281, and 3298 respectively. The rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices and basis also had corresponding values [4][8][10]. - **Ratio Data**: The 01, 05, and 10 contract ratios of rebar to iron ore were all 4, and those to coke were all 2 on November 19, 2025 [18]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On November 19, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 791.5, 755, and 730 respectively. The basis of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 3, 31.5, and 55 respectively. The prices of different types of iron ore in Rizhao also had corresponding values [22]. - **Fundamental Data**: As of November 14, 2025, the daily average hot - metal output was 236.88, the 45 - port desulfurization volume was 326.95, and the global shipping volume was 3516.4. The 45 - port inventory was 15129.71 [25]. Coal - Coke - **Price Data**: On November 19, 2025, the coking coal and coke warehouse - receipt costs and basis had corresponding values. The coking profit on the disk was - 72 [34]. - **Spot Price Data**: On November 18, 2025, the prices of different types of coking coal and coke in different regions had corresponding values, and the import and export profits also had corresponding values [35][36]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron Data**: On November 19, 2025, the basis, month - spreads, and spot prices of silicon iron in different regions had corresponding values, and the number of silicon iron warehouse receipts was 8396 [45]. - **Silicon Manganese Data**: On November 19, 2025, the basis, month - spreads, and spot prices of silicon manganese in different regions had corresponding values, and the number of silicon manganese warehouse receipts was 19744 [46]. Soda Ash - **Price/Month - Spread Data**: On November 19, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts of soda ash were 1182, 1257, and 1325 respectively. The month - spreads and basis also had corresponding values [53]. - **Spot Price/Spread Data**: On November 19, 2025, the heavy - alkali and light - alkali market prices in different regions had corresponding values, and the heavy - alkali minus light - alkali spreads also had corresponding values [56]. Glass - **Price/Month - Spread Data**: On November 19, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts of glass were 1009, 1139, and 1225 respectively. The month - spreads and basis also had corresponding values [78]. - **Production and Sales Data**: From November 11 - 17, 2025, the production and sales of glass in different regions such as Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China had corresponding values [78].