Export Performance - In November 2025, China's export value increased by 5.9% year-on-year, accelerating by 7.0 percentage points compared to October[2] - The decline in exports to the US was 28.6%, widening by 3.4 percentage points from October[4] - Exports of integrated circuits and automobiles surged by 34.2% and 53.0% respectively, contributing significantly to the overall export growth[3] Import Trends - November 2025 saw a 1.9% year-on-year increase in import value, with a 0.9 percentage point acceleration from October[7] - Imports of crude oil decreased by 6.7% year-on-year, primarily due to a drop in import prices by 11.1%[8] - The decline in imports from the US was 19.1%, but this was a smaller drop compared to the previous month, indicating a potential stabilization[9] Market Dynamics - The overall export growth was supported by a shift towards diversified markets, with significant increases in exports to the EU and "Belt and Road" economies, which grew by 14.8% and 10.5% respectively[5] - The resilience of China's exports is attributed to the flexibility and strong pressure resistance of private enterprises, especially in the context of declining US market demand[6] - Future export growth may face challenges due to elevated year-on-year baselines and potential global trade slowdowns, with December exports possibly nearing zero growth[6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, alumina prices are expected to decline with reduced volatility due to a more relaxed ore supply and a slightly oversupplied production capacity [1][29][92] - The growth rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production will slow down significantly as the operating capacity approaches the ceiling, and imports are expected to increase to offset the supply - demand gap. The downstream demand for aluminum is undergoing a structural transformation [2][45][92] - The price of aluminum alloy will still be pegged to the price of aluminum in 2026, but its seasonal performance will be weaker than before [3][53][93] - The price of aluminum and aluminum alloy is expected to show an upward trend in 2026, driven by factors such as global economic recovery, new - energy transformation, and power construction [3][93] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 2025 Market Review - In 2025, aluminum prices showed a trend of oscillating upward breakthrough, divided into three stages: oscillating upward from January to mid - March, oscillating downward from mid - March to early April, and oscillating upward from early April to November. The price fluctuations were affected by various factors such as policies, tariffs, inventory changes, and macro - events [6][7][8] 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Bauxite - Domestic bauxite production increased slightly in 2025, with a growth rate of 5.2% from January to November. However, production was restricted in some areas due to safety and environmental regulations. Imported bauxite increased significantly, with imports from January to October reaching 171 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. The price of imported bauxite decreased due to increased supply. There were some disturbances in the supply from Guinea, and the political situation in Guinea may affect future supply policies [14][16][18] 3.2.2 Alumina - In 2025, alumina production increased, with output from January to October reaching 78.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.56%. The price first declined, then rebounded, and then fell again. New production capacity was limited in 2025, mainly from Guangxi Huasheng Phase II, Shandong Chuangyuan New Materials, and Hebei Wenfeng. In 2026, new overseas production capacity will be mainly in India, Indonesia, and Vietnam. Alumina production capacity is expected to be slightly oversupplied in 2026, and prices will be determined by cost, showing an oscillating downward trend [22][24][29] 3.2.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - In 2025, the built - in and operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased slightly, with production from January to October reaching 36.8908 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.57%. Many enterprises resumed production due to improved profitability, while some enterprises carried out technical upgrades and maintenance, resulting in production cuts. New production capacity mainly came from Shuangyuan Aluminum, Chalco Qinghai, and others. In 2026, new domestic production capacity will mainly come from Huomeihongjun Zhalv Phase II and Tianshan Aluminum. Overseas production capacity increased in 2025, mainly in Indonesia, Russia, and other countries, and is expected to increase by 1.8 million tons in 2026. The growth rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production will slow down significantly in 2026, and imports are expected to increase [30][35][45] 3.2.4 Aluminum Alloy - Although the import of scrap aluminum was liberalized in 2024, there was no significant increase in 2025 due to factors such as the cancellation of export tax rebates, tariff differences, and tightened trade policies in some countries. The production of recycled aluminum alloy increased steadily, and the listing of aluminum alloy futures promoted production. After the listing of the futures, the production of cast aluminum alloy increased significantly, suppressing the price difference between ADC12 and A00, and the seasonal effect was weakened [48][50][52] 3.3 Demand Side 3.3.1 Real Estate - In 2025, the real estate market continued to decline. In 2026, the real estate market is expected to continue to bottom out, and the demand for aluminum in the real estate sector will continue to decrease. However, urban renewal and affordable rental housing will support part of the aluminum demand [54][56][58] 3.3.2 Infrastructure - In 2025, the issuance of local government special bonds increased, but part of the funds was used for debt repayment, resulting in a slowdown in infrastructure investment growth. The investment in the power grid reached a new high. In 2026, with the increase in special bond quotas and the promotion of power grid construction, the demand for aluminum in infrastructure is expected to increase by 5% [59][61][69] 3.3.3 Automobile - In 2025, the automobile market had good production and sales performance, with new - energy vehicle penetration exceeding 50%. In 2026, although consumption policies are expected to be strengthened and export demand is optimistic, factors such as the reduction of new - energy vehicle purchase tax exemption and the implementation of new battery standards may lead to flat demand for aluminum in the automobile industry [70][72][75] 3.3.4 Photovoltaic - In 2025, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic increased significantly in the first half of the year but decreased sharply after June due to the "430 New Policy" and "531 New Policy". In 2026, the new installed capacity of domestic photovoltaic is expected to decline significantly, and although the overseas new installed capacity is expected to grow at a rate of 25%, the overall demand for aluminum in the photovoltaic industry is expected to decrease [76][79][82] 3.3.5 Aluminum and Aluminum Product Exports - In 2025, the net export of aluminum products decreased, mainly due to the cancellation of export tax rebates and the imposition of tariffs. The export of aluminum products increased. In 2026, due to the continuation of policies and the strengthening of the domestic aluminum price, the net export of aluminum and aluminum products is expected to decline [83][85][86] 3.4 Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance - In the first half of 2025, aluminum inventories decreased significantly, while in the second half, they increased seasonally. In 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum market is expected to have a shortage of 100,000 tons [88][90][91] 3.5 2026 Outlook - Alumina prices are expected to decline with reduced volatility; the growth rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production will slow down, imports will increase, and downstream demand will transform; the price of aluminum alloy will be pegged to aluminum with weaker seasonality; the price of aluminum and aluminum alloy is expected to rise [92][93]

平安证券指出，2025年以来机械设备行业出口呈现较强韧性，机械及运输设备中的动力机械及设 备、特种工业专用机械、金工机械等细分领域对中国出口增速的带动达0.75个百分点，较2024年提升 0.29个百分点。海外AI投资及上游电力环节投资对机械设备出口形成拉动，叠加化工品等中间品需求向 好，行业出口竞争力持续显现。展望2026年，尽管全球出口扩张势头可能略有放缓，但中国出口份额有 望延续升势，预计机械设备出口将维持4-5%的增速区间。国内方面，"十五五"规划开局之年新一批重 大项目推进，叠加设备更新政策续力支持，制造业投资具备筑底基础，工业用地成交面积等领先指标显 示行业需求有望在下半年触底回升。 工业母机ETF（159667）跟踪的是中证机床指数（931866），该指数从沪深市场中选取50只涉及机 床整机、数控系统及关键零部件的上市公司证券作为指数样本，覆盖机械设备、电子、新能源、机器人 等多个行业。该指数主要反映中国机床及相关产业链的整体表现，具有较高的行业集中度和代表性。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不 预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不 ...

// 市场要闻 // 1、CPI、 PPI数据将公布 12月10日，国家统计局将公布11月CPI、PPI数据。 华创证券预计11月CPI同比增速有望从上月0.2%回升至0.7%左右。CPI同比增速大幅回升，主因是食品价格扰动。去年11月食品项环比 为-2.7%，是过去十年最低 ； 今年11月环比预计为1.1%。食品价格的波动主要源于天气影响下的菜价，今年10月中下旬以后气温偏低、秋雨 增多，局部地区遭受低温冷冻灾害或暴雨洪涝灾害，导致部分蔬菜市场供应偏紧。 2、11月金融数据或将公布 除CPI、PPI外，11月新增贷款、M2、社融等金融数据也或将在本周公布。 浙商证券预计11月人民币贷款新增3000亿元，同比少增2800亿元，对应增速回落0.1个百分点为6.4%；预计11月社融新增2.2万亿元，同比少 增约342 亿元，对应增速回落0.1 个百分点为8.4% ； 预计11 月M2 增速为8.0%，回落0.2个百分点 ； 预计11 月M1 增速为5.3%，回落0.9 个百 分点。 3、央行公开市场将有6638亿元逆回购到期 Wind数据显示，本周央行公开市场将有6638亿元逆回购到期，其中本周一至本周五分别到期 ...

近期，人工智能板块进入阶段性盘整，市场关于"AI是否存在泡沫"的讨论再度升温。 12月5日，国联民生证券研究所副总经理兼海外研究首席分析师孔蓉在与新浪证券的直播对话中， 就"2026年AI投资的五大关键变量与市场机遇"分享观点。她指出，明年上半年，尤其是一季度至二季度 将成为观察AI产业趋势与投资机会的关键窗口期。观点具体如下： 第一个关键变量，是AI模型本身能力的根本性提升，这主要体现在两个维度：记忆能力和个性化能 力。当前，模型普遍存在"健忘"的问题，无法形成对用户的长期、持续的理解，这限制了其实用性和粘 性。新一代模型如果能够突破这一点，实现"更了解你"的个性化服务，将极大提升用户的使用频率和付 费意愿，为AI在更广泛行业的深度结合打开新局面。 第二个关键变量，是多模态能力的持续进化及其带来的场景突破。这不仅关乎内容生成，更重要的是其 对物理世界的理解。除了视频生成，我们还应关注"AI+3D"技术，即对3D场景的生成与理解能力。这种 能力的提升，对于机器人这类需要与现实世界进行复杂交互的重大场景落地，具有决定性意义。 第三个变量，是数据价值的重新发现与凸显。前两年市场对数据的讨论有所降温，但随着模型发展 ...

Group 1 - Dutch International Group indicates that Sweden's November CPIF inflation fell to 2.3% year-on-year (expected 2.5%), with core inflation also below expectations, but the central bank's hawkish stance remains due to improved growth prospects [1] - Deutsche Bank notes that AI investments are driving technology exports and demand in Asia, but rapid technological iterations and competitive dynamics may amplify market volatility, with industry outcomes likely to be clearer post-2026 [1] - Nomura economists predict that Bank Negara Malaysia will reverse its rate cut from July and raise rates to 3.00% by Q4 2026 due to stronger-than-expected economic growth and rising core inflation, aiming to mitigate systemic risks [2] Group 2 - Barclays research states that the USD/INR has breached the critical support level of 88.80, expecting it to rise to 94.0 by the end of 2026, with limited short-term downside [3] - Mitsubishi UFJ Bank reports that the UK budget has eliminated tail risks, leading to a 16-month low in GBP volatility, and the pound has been recovering, reaching a high of 1.3359 against the dollar [2] - Caixin Macro notes that the Japanese yen and stock market are expected to rebound significantly next year due to reduced tariff risks and effective corporate reforms, although potential wage growth could lead to further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [2]

Core Insights - The OECD projects a global GDP growth of 3.2% by 2025, attributing this partly to AI investments despite tariff challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - OECD forecasts a 3.2% increase in global GDP for 2025 [1][2]. - AI investments are identified as a favorable factor contributing to this growth [1][2]. Group 2: Impact on Companies - The growth outlook supports global tracking funds like the Amundi MSCI Global ETF (ACWI) [1][2]. - Chip industry leaders such as NVIDIA (NVDA) are expected to benefit from the positive economic environment driven by AI investments [1][2].

责任编辑：张俊 SF065 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 尽管面临关税阻力，经合组织（OECD）表示AI投资和政策支持使经济增长保持韧性，并上调了对美国 和欧元区2025年的预测。 尽管面临关税阻力，经合组织（OECD）表示AI投资和政策支持使经济增长保持韧性，并上调了对美国 和欧元区2025年的预测。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The resilience and elasticity of the global economy are stronger than expected, with China playing a crucial role in economic globalization [3][4][5]. Economic Growth Outlook - Initial predictions indicated a decline in global economic growth by 0.5 percentage points, from 3.3% to approximately 2.8%, but the actual decline has been less severe [9]. - Global trade growth was expected to fall below GDP growth due to U.S. tariff policies, with a projected drop of 1.8 percentage points; however, trade data from January to October shows a growth rate of 3.6%, surpassing last year's 3.5% [9][10]. - Inflation expectations were for an average price increase of 0.2% to 0.3%, but prices have instead decreased by 0.1 percentage points, indicating strong resilience in global supply chains [4][9]. Trade Dynamics - Despite a significant drop in trade with the U.S. (estimated at around 20%), China's overall trade with the world has increased by 6.2%, with the share of global trade rising from 12.8% in 2020 to approximately 15% this year [10][11]. - The growth in bilateral trade with ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America has been exceptional, showcasing China's ability to create new opportunities in global supply chains and technology environments [10]. Fiscal and Monetary Policies - Many countries have adopted proactive fiscal and monetary policies to counteract U.S. trade policies, with global public debt reaching 95% of GDP, an increase of 2.3 percentage points from previous years [5][10]. - Germany's trade deficit has reached 300 million euros, exceeding the EU's 3% limit, highlighting the widespread fiscal challenges faced globally [10]. Technological Innovation - Significant growth in AI investment, particularly in the U.S., is noted, with a projected increase of nearly 90% this year following an 18% increase last year [5][10]. - Temporary factors such as trade and investment front-loading and inventory management strategies may introduce certain risks [10]. Future Economic Conditions - Key factors for future economic development include potential new proposals under the Trump 2.0 tariff policy, the sustained competitive advantage from China's technological innovations, and whether new technologies can translate into short-term economic growth [11][12]. - The ability of countries to implement structural reforms and effectively address fiscal deficits in a disordered environment is also critical for future economic trends [12].

专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"！机构称A股迎全球资本涌入的大牛市 在新浪财经2025分析师大会专访中，摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强从科技革命规律、中美AI格 局与投资效应等多维度深入剖析，为我们理解中国经济在AI浪潮下的现状与未来走向提供了清晰指 引。 谈及AI投资对中国经济的净效应影响，邢自强认为中美的情况也极具差异化。美国供给端短缺，AI资 本开支大量流向上下游，短期拉动经济的同时，高成本可能加剧通胀压力，存在"过度投资"带来的泡沫 风险。而中国因基础设施完备、能源成本低、数据中心超前布局，AI投资谨慎且高效，未来三年约2万 亿人民币投资仅占GDP的0.3%，这般精打细算、量入为出的AI投资布局，也与AI泡沫相去甚远。 聚焦资本市场与实体经济，目前中国仍处于打破低物价循环的探索阶段，科技股及前沿科技赛道受重 视，与"老登经济"形成明显区隔，但这并不是广义的牛市。只有成功打破低物价循环，推动企业盈利实 现大面积复苏，才能迎来广泛意义上的牛市。要实现这一目标，就需要通过推进对农民和农民工的社会 保障与福利改革，充分释放消费潜力，助力经济摆脱低物价循环的束缚。中国既需要科技创新的"星辰 大海" ...