Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment to the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is expected to create short-term selling pressure on precious metals, particularly gold and silver, but it is unlikely to alter the long-term dynamics of the precious metals market [1][4]. Group 1: Index Adjustment Impact - The target weight for precious metals in the BCOM will be adjusted to 18.84%, with gold's target weight increasing from 14.29% to 14.90% and silver's decreasing from 4.49% to 3.94% [2]. - The actual weights of gold and silver in the index have significantly exceeded their target allocations, with gold's actual weight dropping from 20.7% to 14.9% and silver's from 8.3% to 3.9% due to price increases anticipated in 2025 [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Analyst Insights - Passive funds tracking the index will need to sell gold and silver futures to realign with target allocations, leading to expected selling pressure primarily in early to mid-January [4]. - Analysts believe that while this adjustment may cause short-term price fluctuations, it will not change the underlying fundamental forces driving the precious metals market, such as geopolitical risks and macroeconomic factors [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend focusing on long-term market fundamentals rather than short-term adjustments, suggesting that investors should consider increasing their positions in gold and silver during this price pressure [5]. - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and central bank purchases of gold are expected to support long-term gold prices, with predictions of potential new highs for silver prices around the Lunar New Year [5].

格隆汇1月5日｜Tikehau Capital市场策略总监Raphael Thuin在报告中指出，市场对美国罢黜委内瑞拉总 统马杜罗的反应相对冷静，这反映了近年来投资者的一种趋势：即在很大程度上忽略地缘政治的不确定 性。Thuin表示，近年来投资者已学会跳出地缘政治风险，将注意力集中在经济增长、通胀和企业盈利 等基本面驱动因素上，"委内瑞拉最近的事态发展似乎就符合这一模式"。他认为，委内瑞拉对全球的影 响有限，且跨国公司在该国的风险敞口相对较小。他指出，更广泛市场的长期前景可能不会受到影响， 但政权更迭确实会引入新的不确定性。Tikehau将密切关注任何溢出效应或地缘政治紧张局势升级的迹 象。 ...

冠通期货研究报告 --原油周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2026年01月05日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 1月4日，欧佩克+发布声明，决定维持2025年11月初制定的产量计划，在2026年2月和3月继续暂停增产。欧佩克+将于2 月1日举行下一次会议。原油需求淡季，EIA数据显示，美国原油库存减幅超预期，但成品油库存增幅超预期，整体油品库 存继续增加。美国原油产量略有增加，仍位于历史最高位附近，美国钻机数量继续小幅回升。美乌会谈后，特朗普称，各 方就结束俄乌冲突取得"非常大的进展"，相关讨论已覆盖"接近95%的关键议题"，并形容当前进展已达到"非常接近达 成协议"的阶段，并称美乌安全保障安排"接近95%完成"。不过欧盟最新决定将针对俄罗斯的经济制裁再延长6个月，至 2026年7月31日。欧美成品油裂解价差低迷，美联储12月议息会议尘埃落定，市场仍担忧原油需求，中东地区出口增加，全 球原油浮库高企，伊拉克恢复了卢 ...

不过，尽管地缘政治风险加剧，国际油价却一度逆势走低。交易员指出，当前原油供应充足，且欧佩克 +维持产量稳定，是油价下行的主因。 委内瑞拉原油多为重质高硫原油(即硫含量较高的原油品类)，美国墨西哥湾沿岸的炼油厂建于数十年 前，设备本就适配重质原油的加工需求。 Pepperstone研究策略师Ahmad Assiri指出，该油种"与美国墨 西哥湾炼厂配置高度契合"。 作为本世纪初委内瑞拉石油资产国有化后仍坚守该国的企业，雪佛龙在全球石油巨头中占据最有利地 位，有望在美国加强对这个全球最大原油储备国的控制后率先获益。另外，国际仲裁机构裁定，因2000 年代初资产国有化，委内瑞拉尚欠康菲石油超过80亿美元，而埃克森美孚被拖欠的赔偿金约有10亿美元 仍未偿还。 智通财经APP获悉，美国石油公司股价在周一盘前交易中普遍走高。此前，美国总统特朗普表示，在上 周末逮捕尼古拉斯·马杜罗后，美国计划"接管"委内瑞拉。 在美国特别许可下，目前唯一仍在委内瑞拉运营的美国石油巨头雪佛龙(CVX.US)涨幅一度达10%。康 菲石油(COP.US)和埃克森美孚(XOM.US)股价同步上涨。 此次股价上扬源于市场预期：美国对委内瑞拉领导层的 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年01月05日16时51分 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位分化，沪金主力收涨1.40%，沪银主力收涨1.16%，铂金主力收涨6.48%，钯金主力收涨涨8.88%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险上升；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期支撑仍存。②避险属性方面，美国抓捕马 杜罗震惊世界，地缘异动风险上升。③货币属性方面，尽管美国第三季度经济增长超过预期，但消费者信心降至4月以来的最低水 平。美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创下2021年初以来最慢增速，低于市场预期的3%。美国11月就业反弹超预期，失业率升至 四年高位。美联储12月在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好 位置，可以应对未来经济走势，但他拒绝就近期是否会再次降息提供指引。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附 近，下次降息或到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需 求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数 ...

美国作为世界第一强国，公然入侵一个主权国家，无疑在国际社会上制造了更多的对立和紧张，可能使得其他国家兔死狐悲，激发更强烈的反美情绪，地缘 紧张程度会大幅上升，去美元化的速度也会加快。 智升研究市场策略师鹏程认为，地缘风险的上升将成为黄金再次上升的动力，为规避地缘风险带来的不确定性，市场资金将会加速流入黄金市场，使得黄金 再次步入上涨的通道。 技术面：黄金日线连续收小阴小阳线，下跌的动能很弱，中线止跌的概率很大。1小时周期低点上移，形成上升中继形态的概率很大，短线大概率还有新 高，日内可关注下方4397美元一线的支撑。 原油方面：亚盘国际油价小幅反弹，随后快速回落，多头力量很弱，无力改变当下的下跌走势，美国入侵委内瑞拉并未对油价形成有效支撑，从长期来看， 该事件可能会对油价形成更大的利空。 来源：智昇财论 黄金方面：受美国抓捕委内瑞拉总统的影响，地缘政治风险再度大幅升温，黄金开盘直接跳空高开，市场避险情绪明显上升，可能导致黄金中线调整提前结 束，中线黄金创新高的概率很大。 拿下委内瑞拉，美国的能源安全将进一步得到保障，也利于美国通胀的下行，能源在美国CPI中的权重约为7%，其中汽油和燃油直接消费占3%-5%，能 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The impact of the Venezuelan situation on international oil prices is limited, and long - term oil prices are still anchored to a loose fundamental situation. Crude oil prices may remain in a low - level oscillation in the short term, with geopolitical situations being the main driver of price fluctuations. In the long run, if the US invests in Venezuela's oil infrastructure, it may increase oil supply and put downward pressure on oil prices [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - On December 31, 2025, the SC main contract price was reported at 432.2 yuan per barrel, a slight decline of 0.89% from the previous day; the WTI main contract was at 57.41 US dollars per barrel, down 0.93%; the Brent main contract was at 60.91 US dollars per barrel, down 0.6%. In terms of spreads, the SC - Brent spread weakened to 0.93 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 16.22%; the SC - WTI spread remained stable at 4.43 US dollars per barrel; the Brent - WTI spread strengthened to 3.5 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 5.11%; the SC continuous - continuous 3 spread strengthened to - 3.1 yuan per barrel [1][5] - Industrial Chain Supply, Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: OPEC+ agreed in principle to continue to suspend increasing oil production in Q1 2026, strengthening the expectation of supply tightening. Due to the arrest of the Venezuelan president, Venezuelan oil exports were temporarily paralyzed and ports were damaged. However, its current production and export scale have a limited impact on international oil prices. As of the end of 2025, its daily crude oil production was about 1 million barrels, accounting for about 1% of the global total supply, and daily exports were about 700,000 barrels [2] - **Demand Side**: On January 2, China's "Deep - Sea No.1" gas field increased its production to 4.5 million tons of oil equivalent, indicating stable operation of refinery facilities and stable overall apparent demand. In Europe and the US, although the Christmas oil - using peak season temporarily boosted demand, the overall recovery rate slowed down and was lower than the same period last year, and refinery operations started to decline after the festival [2] - **Inventory Side**: Venezuelan inventories were full, leading to local production cut pressure. US Cushing and commercial crude oil inventories and OECD inventory data were not updated, but global inventories may tighten due to supply disruptions [2] - Price Trend Judgment - Crude oil prices may remain in a low - level oscillation in the short term, with geopolitical situations being the main driver of price fluctuations. Although the interruption of Venezuelan oil exports has a controllable impact on the global market, in the long run, if the US invests in Venezuela's oil infrastructure, it may increase oil supply and put downward pressure on oil prices [3][4] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Crude Oil - **Futures Prices**: SC, WTI, and Brent futures prices all declined on December 31, 2025, compared with the previous day, with declines of 0.89%, 0.93%, and 0.6% respectively. - **Spot Prices**: The OPEC basket price remained unchanged, while other spot prices showed different degrees of change, with some rising and some falling. - **Spreads**: The SC - Brent spread weakened, the SC - WTI spread remained stable, and the Brent - WTI spread and SC continuous - continuous 3 spread strengthened. - **Other Assets**: The US dollar index slightly increased, the S&P 500 declined, and the DAX index remained unchanged. - **Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 0.46%, Cushing inventories increased by 2.52%, and the US strategic reserve inventory increased slightly. - **Refinery Operations**: The US refinery weekly operating rate and crude oil processing volume both increased slightly [5] - Fuel Oil - Futures prices of FU and LU declined on December 31, 2025, compared with the previous day, with declines of 1.05% and 1.41% respectively. Spot prices, paper - cargo prices, and other indicators also showed different degrees of change [6] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - Supply - On January 4, 2026, it was reported that OPEC+ agreed in principle to continue to suspend increasing oil production in Q1 2026. The US government asked major US oil companies to invest in Venezuela to repair its oil infrastructure [7][8] - Demand - Venezuelan state - owned oil company executives stated that the US attack did not damage oil facilities, and production and refining operations were normal [9] - Inventory - Venezuelan state - owned oil company asked some joint - venture enterprises to cut crude oil production due to full inventories. Venezuelan oil exports were paralyzed [10] - Market Information - On January 3, 2026, US President Trump said that the US would restore normal oil supply and ensure the proper care of the Venezuelan people, while maintaining a full - scale embargo on Venezuelan oil [11] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including WTI, Brent first - line contract prices and spreads, SC and WTI spreads, US crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, etc., to visually show the changes in the industrial chain data [12][14][16]

委内瑞拉政局动荡下，全球多个市场已作出反应。 油价方面，2026年1月5日亚太市场转跌为涨。不过，市场普遍预计，委内瑞拉局势不会改变油价下跌趋势。而黄金作为避险资产的属性再次得到凸显， 带领一众贵金属继续上涨。 1月5日，受突发地缘政治事件催化，现货黄金价格开盘急速上涨。截至17时，现货黄金日内大涨近100美元，现报4430美元/盎司。美股贵金属矿商盘前上 涨，金罗斯黄金涨2%，AngloGold涨1.4%，巴里克黄金、纽蒙特矿业均涨超2%。 | 贵金属 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | | 4430.750 | 75.742 | 4441.6 | | +99.175 +2.29% | +2.923 +4.01% | +112.0 +2.59% | | COMEX白银 | SHFE黄金 | SHFE自银 | | 75.600 | 995.00 | 18247 | | +4.585 +6.46% | +13.78 +1.40% | +210 +1.16% | 金价走高迅速传导至消费终端。记者获悉，周生生部分定价类金饰将于1月6日调价，涨幅在2 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. military operation led to the swift capture of Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, resulting in the collapse of the regime in a matter of hours [1][3] - Trump's announcement of significant investments by U.S. oil companies to restore Venezuela's oil infrastructure, while maintaining sanctions, indicates a strategic shift in how U.S. capital will flow from Venezuela's resources [4][6] - The military action reflects a change in U.S. strategy, opting for targeted strikes rather than large-scale invasions, showcasing a shift in military confidence and capability [6][8] Group 2 - Financial markets reacted with a rise in gold and silver prices, indicating increased investor anxiety over geopolitical risks, while U.S. stock futures remained stable, suggesting a lack of confidence in the strategic benefits of the U.S. action [4][6] - The significant oil reserves in Venezuela, totaling 303 billion barrels, represent a major economic asset, yet the country's wealth has historically led to challenges rather than benefits [4][10] - The international response to the U.S. action has been largely critical, with leaders from Brazil and Chile condemning the military intervention, highlighting a potential shift in global perceptions of U.S. foreign policy [8][10] Group 3 - The potential for increased capital outflow from the U.S. due to the military action raises concerns about the future of the dollar and the financial burden on the U.S. government [10][12] - The ongoing inflation issues in the U.S. could be exacerbated by rising oil prices resulting from geopolitical conflicts, posing challenges for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [12] - The market's inclination towards investing in non-U.S. assets, such as Chinese assets, suggests a growing sentiment against the sustainability of U.S. dollar dominance [12]

格隆汇1月5日｜美国国防股盘前走高——紧随欧洲同行涨势——因投资者预判在美国罢黜委内瑞拉总统 马杜罗后，地缘政治风险将有所升高。洛克希德·马丁盘前上涨1.1%，通用动力和诺斯罗普·格鲁曼期货 分别上涨1.3%和0.9%。雷神技术在周末事件后盘前上涨0.5%。杰富瑞分析师Sheila Kahyaoglu和Greg Konrad在报告中指出，除国际销售外，马杜罗下台后的最大影响将是美国海军前沿行动的资金成本以及 美国盟友的反应。 ...