Core Viewpoint - The recent imposition of a 25% tariff on imported automobiles by the U.S. government is expected to have significant repercussions on the global automotive industry, affecting production costs, consumer prices, and overall market dynamics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - The 25% tariff on imported vehicles is aimed at protecting U.S. automakers and jobs, but it may lead to increased production costs and reduced competitiveness for American manufacturers [2][7]. - The average price of cars in the U.S. could rise by approximately $4,711 due to the tariffs, with potential reductions if certain exemptions apply [3][16]. - The tariffs are likely to disrupt the highly integrated North American automotive supply chain, which relies on parts from Canada and Mexico [11][12]. Group 2: Economic and Employment Effects - Approximately 1 million Americans are employed in automotive manufacturing, with an additional 2 million in sales, indicating that the tariffs could have widespread economic implications [3]. - The tariffs may lead to a decrease in U.S. car sales, as higher prices could deter consumers, especially in the context of existing inflationary pressures [17][21]. - The automotive industry is facing a potential "chilling effect," where uncertainty around tariffs could lead to reduced production and investment decisions [10][15]. Group 3: Challenges for U.S. Automakers - U.S. automakers, particularly the "Big Three" (General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis), are expected to face significant challenges due to their reliance on imported parts and the high costs associated with the tariffs [12][13]. - General Motors is projected to experience a 79% decline in EBIT due to the tariffs, while Ford and Stellantis will also see substantial reductions in their financial performance [13]. - The potential for retaliatory tariffs from other countries, such as Canada, could further complicate the situation for U.S. automakers [9][22]. Group 4: Long-term Industry Outlook - The long-term viability of the U.S. automotive industry may be jeopardized by a reliance on protectionist measures, which could stifle innovation and competitiveness [5][22]. - The shift of automotive production to the southern U.S. has already altered the landscape, and the tariffs may not effectively revitalize the traditional manufacturing hubs in the Midwest [19][20]. - The automotive sector's dependence on global supply chains means that isolationist policies could lead to inefficiencies and higher costs, ultimately harming the industry's growth prospects [22].

美方对华轮番加征畸高关税已经沦为数字游戏，在经济上已无实际意义，只会更加暴露出美方将关税工 具化、武器化，搞霸凌胁迫的伎俩，并沦为笑话。如果美方继续关税数字游戏，中方将不予理会。但 是，倘若美方执意继续实质性侵害中方权益，中方将坚决反制，奉陪到底。 4月9日，中国政府发布《关于中美经贸关系若干问题的中方立场》白皮书，重申了中方关于中美经贸关 系的一贯立场。中美经贸关系的本质是互利共赢。贸易战没有赢家，保护主义没有出路。中方对与美方 磋商持开放态度，但威胁施压不是同中方打交道的正确方式。美方应在相互尊重的基础上，与中方通过 平等对话妥善解决分歧。中方将坚定不移办好自己的事，以自身的确定性应对外部环境的各种不确定因 素，继续作动荡世界的稳定锚。 4月11日，国务院关税税则委员会发布公告：调整《国务院关税税则委员会关于调整对原产于美国的进口商品 加征关税措施的公告》（税委会公告2025年第5号）规定的加征关税税率， 由84%提高至125% 。鉴于在目前 关税水平下，美国输华商品已无市场接受可能性， 如果美方后续对中国输美商品继续加征关税，中方将不予 理会。 随后，商务部新闻发言人就中方针对美方再次提高对华关税实施反 ...

Summary of the Conference Call Company and Industry - The conference call discusses **易德龙 (Yidelong)**, a company involved in manufacturing and supply chain management, particularly in response to U.S.-China trade tensions and global supply chain risks. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Strategic Shift to Vietnam**: 易德龙 established production lines in Vietnam to avoid U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports, effectively lowering costs and gradually shifting operations to Vietnam in response to U.S.-China trade friction [2][3][4] 2. **Global Production Network**: The company has set up production bases in Mexico and Romania to serve North American and European markets, creating a global layout with three overseas bases (Vietnam, Mexico, Romania) and two domestic bases (Suzhou, Wuhan) [2][4] 3. **Origin Rules Compliance**: 易德龙 utilizes origin rules such as tariff classification change (KCTC) and local value content (LVC) to obtain Vietnamese origin certificates, thus avoiding tariffs [2][8] 4. **Impact of Tariff Policies**: Changes in tariff policies significantly affect export and import operations. The company has adapted by sourcing materials through Singapore to avoid high import tariffs [2][12] 5. **Cost Comparison**: Manufacturing costs in China are benchmarked at 100, with Vietnam at 102-105, Romania at 110-120, and Mexico at 115-125, indicating that Vietnam is the most efficient location [3][19] 6. **Response to Trade Policies**: The company advises manufacturers to adopt cautious strategies in global layouts, establishing bases in North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia to mitigate risks [3][24] 7. **Logistics and Procurement Strategies**: The company has optimized logistics by using Singapore as a logistics hub, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs associated with tariffs [13] 8. **Future Competitiveness**: 易德龙 plans to continue optimizing production bases, improving operational efficiency, and innovating technology to meet diverse global market demands [6][7] 9. **Challenges of U.S. Manufacturing Reshoring**: The return of manufacturing to the U.S. faces challenges due to reliance on global supply chains and high import tariffs on components [16] 10. **European Market Considerations**: European clients prioritize quality, delivery, and cost, with some still favoring Chinese production due to cost advantages despite tariffs [17][18] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Third-Party Country Benefits**: Countries like Singapore benefit from the U.S.-China trade situation by acting as procurement hubs, while China faces job losses and economic impacts [23] 2. **Capital Expenditure and Capacity Planning**: Companies are advised to be cautious in capital expenditures and capacity planning, establishing bases in multiple regions to mitigate risks [24] 3. **Current Performance and Future Outlook**: 易德龙's performance in 2024 is strong, with growth potential in 2025 driven by new R&D initiatives and customer engagement [25]

"美元是我们的货币，但却是你们的麻烦。"1971年，时任美国财政部长约翰·康纳利对着十国集团财金 官员抛出这句傲慢名言。 4月10日，商务部召开例行新闻发布会。有记者提问：特朗普宣布将对不采取报复性行动的国家实施90 天的关税暂停，但是上调对华关税至125%，甚至可能到150%，中国是否会继续对美加征更高关税？ 商务部新闻发言人表示，对于假设性问题，目前无法进行评论。但是我想强调的是，贸易战没有赢家， 保护主义没有出路。如果美方一意孤行，中方将奉陪到底，我们绝不接受美方的极限施压和霸凌行径， 必将采取坚决有力措施捍卫自身正当权益。 "君子求诸己，小人求诸人"。全球化进程中美国受益匪浅，但面对分配不均的问题，美国没有"反求诸 己"，而是滥用保护主义政策，后果必然是美元信用受损，美元霸权根基动摇，最终带来的可能是一个 时代的"终结"…… 大选涨幅"归零" 2024年美国大选后，美元指数一度暴涨，今年1月13日，美元指数一度突破110整数关口，创下逾两年新 高。但如今，美元的涨幅已经悉数回吐，已经低于去年11月美国大选结果出炉前。 特朗普当选后美元的涨幅为何"归零"？中国银行研究院高级研究员王有鑫对21世纪经济报道 ...

邢自强表示，美国对其他国家全面加征关税，背后主要有两个原因。一是，通过极限施压，使得贸易伙 伴纷纷让步妥协，答应美国购买美国产品、增加在美投资、减少贸易壁垒等，通过在媒体上释放一些轰 动新闻可以让美国当局获得一些短期成功。从中长期来看，特朗普团队最近反复表达，似乎真的坚信通 过提高关税，可以实现制造业回流，并创造就业岗位，推动重振美国工业和制造业。这是对冷战以来三 十多年时间里美国主导的全球化的一种逆转。 邢自强表示，全球化对美国是"百利只有一害"。"百利"体现在，美国跨国企业在全球扩张，寻找成本最 低、利润最高的地方，表面上来看这些美国跨国企业到其他国家投资，造成了这些国家对美国的贸易顺 差，但是这些贸易顺差一大部分是跨国企业的利润，并非本土国家企业挣到的。另外，像有些亚洲国家 挣到了贸易顺差，但是也通过资本方式回流到美国。美国长期处于经常账户贸易逆差、资本账户顺差的 状态，这些钱无论是跨国企业利润汇回带来的，还是主权资金投资美国的债券和股票，都强化了美元体 系的循环。这三十多年全球化进程，美国大型企业在全球扩张，其利润回报是比较好的，再叠加汇回的 美元资金投向美国证券市场和债券市场，美元总体趋势在持续走强 ...

特朗普关税，靴子已落地，但尘埃乍起。 随着美国当地时间4月9日凌晨零点到来，被美国特朗普政府称之为"对等关税"的贸易政策，已经生效。 全球贸易将何去何从，全球经济会否因此被拖入泥潭，令人担忧。 据央视新闻报道，4月9日下午，在中国外交部举行的例行记者会上，有记者就美国对华征收104%关税 进行提问时，外交部发言人林剑表示，中国人民的正当发展权利不容剥夺，中国的主权、安全、发展利 益不容侵犯。我们将继续采取坚决有力的措施，维护自身的正当权益。 4月2日，美国特朗普政府宣布，对所有出口至美国的商品征收至少10%的关税，并对所谓的贸易失衡最 严重的国家施加更高的税率。其中，中国将面临34%的关税，欧盟的税率为20%，越南则被征收高达 46%的关税。此举不仅令全球市场随即陷入剧烈动荡，也招致了美国国内民众的大规模抗议。 对此，中国政府宣布了一系列反制措施。特朗普则随后表示，如中国不取消报复性关税，美国将对中国 产品征收额外50%关税。这意味着，美方对我加征的关税将累积高达104%。 4月8日，中国商务部也进一步表示，如果美方升级关税措施落地，中方将坚决反对并称将采取反制措施 维护自身权益。 累积加征高达104%的关税 ...

不锈钢产业日报 2025-04-09 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12655 | -120 05-06月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -70 | 20 -5573 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -5795 | 940 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 66977 | | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 199970 | -4937 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 13725 | -150 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 9700 | 0 | | | SS主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 915 | 220 | | | | 上游情况 | 电解镍产量(月,吨) | 29430 | 1120 镍铁产量合计(月,万金属吨) | 2.33 | 0.17 | | | 进口数量:精炼镍及合金(月,吨) | | 7898.16 ...

美国宣布对所有贸易伙伴征收关税，挑起全球范围贸易战，引发国际社会强烈反应，美国最大贸易伙伴欧盟正在准备对美国的关税措施采取反制手段。当地 时间4月7日，欧盟委员会向成员国提议对部分美国产品征收25%关税。据悉，相关关税措施预计将于4月15日正式生效，但大部分关税预计将于5月中旬开始 征收。欧盟内部文件显示，征收关税商品范围广泛，包括钻石、鸡蛋、牙线、香肠和禽肉等。 与此同时，我国国务院总理李强4月8日下午同欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩通电话。冯德莱恩表示，欧盟始终高度重视对华关系。在当前形势下，欧中关系保持 延续性、稳定性至关重要。欧方愿同中方推进各领域高层对话，深化经贸、绿色经济、气候变化等领域互利合作。美国加征关税严重冲击国际贸易，对欧中 及弱势国家造成严重影响。 转变贸易方式 欧盟在2023年推出反胁迫机制，以对欧盟实施经济胁迫的国家采取报复行动。据欧盟官网介绍，在反胁迫机制下，欧盟可对相关国家的服务贸易、与贸易有 关的知识产权征收关税或实施限制，同时限制相关国家在欧盟的直接投资和参与政府采购。欧盟每年有约2万亿欧元的政府采购项目。 在欧盟成员国中，法国对反制的呼声最高。法国正在游说整个欧盟对美国科技公司征收 ...

国际贸易和金融学者 "这是一个非常值得我们关注的历史焦点，做错了选择，只能留给后人吸取教训了。" 文 丨 曾梦龙 制图 丨 黄帧昕 编辑 丨 黄俊杰 4 月 2 日，美国总统特朗普宣布将对全球几乎所有国家和地区加征关税。之后五天，全球所有主要股指 开始自由落体，跌 8 个点已经不算突出。光美国股市就蒸发了超过 6 万亿美元，两日下跌幅度仅次于大 萧条、2008 年金融危机、新冠疫情等历史性灾难。 特朗普对关税的态度已经延续几十年，但此次关税政策依然远超所有人预期，因为力度，也因为受波及 的不但包括美国的竞争对手，还包括了它的传统盟友，甚至两个仅有企鹅和海豹的小岛。没人能判断他 的边界在哪里。 在宣布新关税政策前一天，已经 94 岁的著名保守派经济学家托马斯·索维尔罕见批评特朗普的关税政 策。在反对贸易战的同时，他格外对特朗普的捉摸不定表达了担忧：当人们无法预判制定规则的人接下 来怎么做，只会紧握现金，减少投资和消费。"如果人们都握着现金，我们就会尝到 1930 年代大萧条的 苦果。" 新加坡总理黄循财在 4 月 4 日的讲话中也提到了 1930 年代。他认为，美国的最新举措标志着全球秩序 发生重大变化，基于规 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US government's imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" has led to China's counter - measures, causing significant concerns in the market. The global economy faces a greater risk of recession, and the market anticipates further monetary policy easing. Tariffs are significantly beneficial for Treasury bond futures, while stock index futures may face pressure. Different commodities are affected by various factors such as trade frictions, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes, with varying trends and investment strategies [5][6][9]. Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year主力 contracts rose by 1.43%, 0.51%, 0.38%, and 0.15% respectively [5]. - **Policy Impact**: China will impose an additional 34% tariff on all imported goods from the US starting from April 10, 2025. Future monetary and fiscal policies have room for adjustment, and measures will be taken to boost domestic consumption and stabilize the capital market [5][6]. - **Outlook**: Tariffs are favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the current low Treasury bond yields and the stable recovery of the Chinese economy, caution is advised. It is expected that the volatility will increase [6][7][8]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures declined slightly. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000股指期货主力 contracts changed by - 0.49%, 0.10%, - 0.78%, and - 1.10% respectively [9]. - **Impact Factors**: Tariffs disrupt the domestic economic recovery rhythm, and the global recession risk increases, putting pressure on stock index futures. However, due to the low valuation of domestic assets and policy hedging space, there is no need to be overly bearish on the Chinese equity market. It is advisable to wait for short - term opportunities [9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the gold主力 contract rose by 0.74%, and the silver主力 contract fell by 1.37% [11]. - **Impact Factors**: After the tariff implementation, precious metals first rose and then fell, possibly due to passive selling caused by global financial market liquidity shocks. The long - term value of gold is still optimistic, and it is expected to continue its upward trend after the shock [11][12]. - **Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities or buy long - term call options after the market stabilizes [12][13]. Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. During the Ching Ming Festival, international financial market fluctuations may drag down domestic black - series products [14]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The real - estate industry's downward trend persists, and weak demand and increasing rebar production suppress prices. However, the peak demand season is approaching, and macro - policies may support prices. The valuation of steel prices is low, and the downward space may be limited [14]. - **Strategy**: Due to macro - factor disturbances, market volatility may increase. Investors can wait and see or focus on intraday trading opportunities, paying attention to position management [14]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. During the holiday, international market fluctuations may affect domestic black - series products [16][17]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: High iron - water production supports iron ore demand. Although the supply has increased recently, the port inventory has decreased. The valuation of iron ore is relatively high in the black - series products [17]. - **Strategy**: Due to macro - factor disturbances, market volatility may increase. Investors can wait and see or focus on intraday trading opportunities, paying attention to position management [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures were weak. During the holiday, international market fluctuations may affect domestic black - series products [19]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The coking - coal market sentiment has improved slightly, and the coke fundamentals are showing signs of improvement. However, the medium - term weakness has not changed [19]. - **Strategy**: Due to macro - factor disturbances, market volatility may increase. Investors can wait and see or focus on intraday trading opportunities, paying attention to position management [19][20]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon主力 contract fell by 0.45%, and the silicon - iron主力 contract rose by 0.13% [22]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply of ferroalloys is slightly higher than demand. The steel demand season is coming, and the demand for ferroalloys is expected to pick up. However, the high inventory and potential supply disturbances in manganese ore need attention [22][23]. - **Strategy**: In the low - price range, consider long - position opportunities for deep - out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon. For silicon iron, short - position holders can consider exiting at the bottom range [23]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose and then fell due to the implementation of US reciprocal tariffs [24]. - **Market Data**: Fund managers increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased, and OPEC + will increase oil supply in May [25]. - **Outlook**: The crude oil price depends on the development of trade frictions. It is expected that the price will be supported at around $60, and OPEC may take measures to support the price [26]. - **Strategy**: Consider temporarily waiting and seeing for the crude - oil主力 contract [27]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil, rising and then falling. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market was weak in early April [28]. - **Outlook**: High - sulfur fuel oil may face supply shortages, but the implementation of US tariffs will harm the global shipping market, which is negative for fuel oil [29]. - **Strategy**: Consider temporarily waiting and seeing for the fuel - oil主力 contract [30]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic - rubber主力 contract fell by 4.04%. The US tariff has a negative impact on the cost and demand expectations, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term [31]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The butadiene price is falling, and the production capacity utilization rate has declined. The demand for tires is expected to fluctuate slightly, and the inventory has decreased [31]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the natural - rubber主力 contract fell by 3.18%, and the 20 - rubber主力 contract fell by 3.73%. The US tariff has a triple - path impact on the natural - rubber market, and the price lacks upward momentum in the short term [33]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The opening of the rubber - tapping season in some areas is delayed, and the demand for tires is weak. The inventory is at a relatively low level year - on - year but is accumulating month - on - month [33][34]. - **Outlook**: There may be a technical rebound after the price drops excessively. The long - term trend depends on global trade policies and industrial chain reconstruction [33]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PVC主力 contract fell by 0.04%. The US tariff has limited impact on PVC imports and exports, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate between weak reality and policy expectations [36]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The production capacity utilization rate has increased slightly, and the demand from downstream enterprises is weak. The export depends on low prices, and the inventory has increased [36][37]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [38]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the urea主力 contract fell by 0.42%. The urea market is mainly in a weak adjustment state, and the price lacks upward momentum under the loose supply - demand pattern [39]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The daily production of urea is expected to remain around 200,000 tons. The agricultural demand is in a lull, and the industrial demand is under pressure. The inventory has decreased [39]. - **Outlook**: The market may oscillate before the start of the summer fertilizer demand. Attention should be paid to factors such as northeast replenishment demand, export policy changes, and extreme weather [39]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2505主力 contract fell by 2.27%. Recently, more PX plants have been under maintenance, and the load has decreased. The downstream PTA startup has increased, but the cost support has collapsed due to the sharp drop in crude oil prices [41]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, PX is expected to follow the cost - end weakness. It is advisable to wait and see carefully, paying attention to changes in crude oil prices and supply [41]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2505主力 contract fell by 2%. The supply of PTA has increased slightly, and the demand from the polyester industry has risen. However, the PTA processing fee has decreased, and the crude oil price has dropped significantly [42]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of PTA is not significant, but there is a risk of a sharp price correction. It is advisable to participate carefully and control risks [42]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the ethylene - glycol主力 contract fell by 1.4%. The overall production capacity utilization rate has decreased, and the inventory has increased. The downstream polyester startup has risen, but the terminal demand is weak [43]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the ethylene - glycol price is expected to be under pressure. It is advisable to operate carefully and pay attention to changes in port inventory and upstream - downstream plants [43][44]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2505主力 contract fell by 2.38%. The supply of short - fiber is at a relatively high level, and the demand from downstream terminals is limited. The cost support is insufficient [45]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, short - fiber will follow the cost - end movement. Pay attention to risk control due to significant fluctuations [45]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chips 2505主力 contract fell by 1.18%. The raw - material cost support is limited, the supply has increased, and the demand for downstream soft drinks is gradually recovering [46]. - **Outlook**: The bottle - chips market is expected to follow the cost - end weakness. Pay attention to changes in raw - material prices [46]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the soda - ash 2505主力 contract fell by 0.29%. The soda - ash production has adjusted at a high level, and the inventory has increased. The downstream demand is weak, and the price is stable and weak [47]. - **Outlook**: The market is still dominated by demand in the short term, and the price is subject to oscillation due to maintenance news [47]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the glass 2505主力 contract fell by 2.44%. The number of production lines has been at a low level, and the overall supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly. The price has a certain upward momentum due to valuation repair and cost support, but the actual supply - demand drive is not obvious [48]. - **Outlook**: It is necessary to continuously monitor the inventory - reduction speed [48]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the caustic - soda 2505主力 contract fell by 0.71%. The production of caustic soda has increased slightly, and the demand is limited. The market is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the price is expected to oscillate [50]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the pulp 2505主力 contract fell by 1.91%. Some pulp mills have carried out maintenance, and the inventory has increased slightly. The downstream demand is weak, and the market sentiment is affected by the futures price decline [51][53]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the pulp market is expected to be weak and oscillate [53]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the lithium - carbonate主力 contract fell by 1%. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating. The market is expected to be weak [54]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fell significantly due to US tariffs. The spot - market trading was stable, and the premium increased [55]. - **Outlook**: With the escalation of the trade war, copper prices are difficult to remain stable. In the short term, it is not recommended to participate in the market or only participate with a light position [55]. - **Strategy**: Consider temporarily waiting and seeing for the Shanghai - copper主力 contract [56]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, tin fell by 2.02%. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, but the short - term impact of macro - events has intensified. The supply shortage in the ore end still exists, and the price is expected to be supported [56]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, pay attention to risk control and wait for the release of risk sentiment [56]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the nickel price fell by 1.55%. The market sentiment is pessimistic due to US tariffs. The cost support is strong, but the demand is weak, and the market is expected to remain at a low level in the short term [57]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to risk control [57]. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the industrial - silicon主力 contract rose by 0.20%, and the polysilicon主力 contract fell by 0.02%. The industrial - silicon market is oversupplied, and the price is weak. The polysilicon market is relatively stable, and the price is expected to remain stable [58][59]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the soybean - meal main - contract rose by 1.60%, and the soybean - oil main - contract fell by 1.18%. The US - China trade friction has intensified, and the US soybean main - contract fell on Friday [60]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The domestic soybean supply is becoming more abundant, and the inventory of soybean meal is accumulating, while the inventory of soybean oil is decreasing. The consumption of soybean oil and soybean meal is expected to increase slightly [60]. - **Strategy**: After the short - term extreme market reaction, the market will return to fundamentals. Long - position holders can consider taking profits on rallies. If there is still an upward trend on the second trading day, consider virtual - value put options [61][62]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil has fallen, pressured by the decline in CBOT soybean oil and crude oil prices. The global demand is weak due to economic concerns, and the Malaysian palm - oil inventory is expected to rise for the first time in six months [63]. - **Strategy**: Consider temporarily waiting and seeing [64]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed has fallen, and the domestic market has been affected by tariff policies. The impact on rapeseed meal is greater than that on rapeseed oil. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil has decreased [65][66]. - **Strategy**: Consider the opportunity to expand the spread after the narrowing of the soybean - rapeseed spread [66]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: During the holiday, the outer - market cotton fell by about 2.3% due to US tariff policies. The domestic cotton supply is sufficient, and the downstream demand is weakening [67][68]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the outer - market supply - demand is loose, and the domestic demand has reached a phased peak. The "reciprocal tariff" has a great impact on demand, and the global economic decline has led to trade shrinkage [68]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: During the holiday, the outer - market raw sugar fell by more than 3% due to the decline in global risk assets. The domestic and foreign sugar production and inventory situations are different. The short - term decline in global risk assets will drag down sugar prices [69][70]. - **Strategy**: It is advisable to wait and see [70][71]. Apples - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures fluctuated. The cancellation of a delivery warehouse is beneficial, and the consumption is better than expected. The inventory is low, and the price is expected to be strong [72][73]. - **Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities after price corrections [74]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average pig price is oscillating. The demand support is insufficient, and the price is expected to remain oscillating in the short term. The 4 - month planned slaughter volume of group farms has a limited increase, and the consumption is entering the