受地缘政治高度不确定影响，美国纽约商品交易所黄金和白银期货价格11日上涨，2月黄金期货价格一 度突破每盎司4600美元，白银期价一度也在每盎司84美元高位附近波动，均创历史新高。观察人士认 为，美国政府强权行径将加速各国"去美元化"，对国际金价形成较强支撑。与此同时，由于白银市场供 应持续紧张，国际银价再度反弹。图为1月7日，上海南京路步行街一家白银专卖店工作人员在整理银 块。（详细报道见A08） ...

Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold prices, reaching $4,550 per ounce, reflects a significant market trend influenced by geopolitical instability and changes in the global monetary system, making gold a key asset for investors [1][5][6]. Group 1: Price Trends and Historical Context - Gold prices have hit a record high of $4,550 per ounce, marking the 50th new high in 2025, with an increase from $2,600 at the beginning of the year, representing a cumulative rise of over 70% [1][3]. - The price surge began in August 2025, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, leading to a rapid increase past $3,800 and $4,200 [3][5]. - A significant price drop occurred in mid-October 2025, with a single-day decline exceeding 6%, marking the largest drop in 12 years, causing panic among new investors [3][5]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The primary driver of the gold price increase is the historical trend of seeking gold during times of geopolitical turmoil, with current global tensions described as chaotic [5][6]. - Changes in the international monetary system are also pivotal, with the dollar's dominance declining and gold reserves in central banks rising, particularly in emerging markets like China, India, and Russia [6]. - The rise of the AI industry has increased gold's industrial demand, while slow growth in gold production has created a supply-demand imbalance, further pushing prices up [6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Market sentiment is divided, with optimistic forecasts from institutions like Goldman Sachs predicting gold could reach $5,000 by 2026, citing ongoing geopolitical instability and continued demand from central banks [8]. - Conversely, pessimistic views warn of overvaluation and potential corrections if geopolitical tensions ease or if the Federal Reserve alters its monetary policy [8]. Group 4: Investment Strategies and Risks - Investment in gold is recommended, but caution is advised against following trends blindly; gold should serve as a hedge rather than a high-return investment, with suggested allocations of 10%-20% of total assets [8][9]. - Different investment methods are suitable for varying investor profiles: physical gold for long-term investors, paper gold or ETFs for short-term investors, and futures for experienced traders [9]. - Common scams in gold investment include high-yield promises and fraudulent platforms, emphasizing the need for vigilance and skepticism towards offers that seem too good to be true [10].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has surged, breaking the historical threshold of $4600 per ounce, driven by factors such as concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, expectations of loose monetary policy, and geopolitical uncertainties [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - As of January 12, the London gold price rose by 1.92%, reaching $4595.753 per ounce, with an intraday high of $4601.38 [1][2]. - COMEX gold futures also experienced an increase of 2.13%, trading at $4596.7 per ounce, with a peak of $4612.7 [2][3]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The rise in gold prices is attributed to heightened market demand for safe-haven assets due to escalating military conflicts, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, and concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's independence following news of an investigation into its chairman [4]. - Analysts highlight three main reasons for the gold price surge: ongoing de-dollarization efforts by central banks, increased geopolitical tensions, and a weakening dollar alongside persistent inflation concerns [4]. - The supply-demand dynamics are also contributing, with global gold production around 3500 tons annually, while central banks have been purchasing over 1000 tons of gold each year, accounting for nearly one-third of the annual production [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts maintain a bullish outlook on precious metals, suggesting that the investigation into the Federal Reserve chairman may accelerate existing upward trends rather than create short-term volatility [5]. - The potential for a long-term upward trend in gold prices is reinforced by the ongoing geopolitical risks and central banks' continued gold purchases [5]. - However, there are signals to watch for that could impact the market, including the possibility of the investigation concluding without substantial evidence, a new Fed chair reaffirming policy independence, or unexpected inflation prompting tighter monetary policy [6].

Group 1 - The market sentiment of "selling America" is spreading due to escalating attacks from the Trump administration on the Federal Reserve, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [1][2] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by 0.3%, marking its largest decline since December 23 of the previous year, while S&P 500 futures dropped by 0.7% [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 4.20%, potentially reaching its highest closing price since September of the previous year [1] Group 2 - Strategists warn that if tensions continue to escalate, the sell-off may intensify, with Morgan Stanley highlighting the risk of a steepening U.S. Treasury yield curve [2] - UBS's chief strategist noted that now is not the time for markets to worry about the Fed's independence, as inflation in the U.S. may rise in the coming months [2] - The debate centers on the extent to which the President can influence national interest rate policy, which has traditionally been insulated from political interference [2] Group 3 - The news of the Fed receiving a subpoena may further diminish the attractiveness of U.S. assets, as noted by a strategist from Invesco [3] - Concerns about the Fed's independence could lead macro traders to increase short positions on the dollar [3] - The pressure to "sell America" is unlikely to dissipate as trading unfolds into 2026 [4] Group 4 - Some analysts maintain a cautious outlook, suggesting that any pullback could present a buying opportunity due to the dollar's strong reserve currency status and the liquidity of U.S. Treasuries [4] - The investigation facing Powell appears more like a smokescreen than a real threat, but its long-term implications could be significant [4]

来源：FT中文网 美国抓捕马杜罗对美元有直接的负面影响，同时，对人民币国际化有间接的正面影响。 文丨李楠、陈开宇 2026新年伊始，美国发动了对委内瑞拉的军事袭击，堪比好莱坞编剧设计的剧情，美国特种兵成功地抓捕了委内瑞拉总统马杜罗，并押送回美国受审。国 际社会一片哗然，此事件对国际秩序、军事线路、国际法、地缘政治等多方面的影响众说纷纭。本文重点讨论此事件对美元、虚拟货币和人民币国际化的 影响。 我们认为，美国抓捕马杜罗对美元有直接的负面影响，会推高虚拟货币的价格和波动，同时，对人民币国际化有间接的正面影响。 一、美元霸权走弱源自美国财政的"滞胀循环" 2026年极可能爆发历史上最大的全球金融危机，而这个危机的根源来自于美元。 其次，美元的信任基础在快速削弱。从"长臂管辖""踢出SWIFT"等手段开始，美元开始不受信任。世界上主要大宗商品交易中，使用美元的比重正在下 降；中国的CIPS交易量屡创记录。 其三，美元和美债作为外汇储备资产的吸引力在下降。2025年，各国央行的黄金储备量增加，推动了主要的避险资产黄金的价格屡创新高，甚至已经不再 是避险资产的白银等贵金属的价格也创记录地大涨。 在世界对美元信心不断削弱 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the global financial market witnessed a historic moment on January 12, 2026, with the London spot gold price surpassing $4600 per ounce, marking a significant milestone in a seven-year bull market for gold [1][3] - The surge in gold prices is attributed to two main drivers: escalating global geopolitical conflicts and a crisis of confidence in the Federal Reserve [5][6][7] - The geopolitical tensions include various conflicts, such as the U.S. operation in Venezuela and ongoing issues in Iran, which have led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [6][7] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's credibility is under scrutiny due to a criminal investigation involving its chairman and the potential for a more dovish new chairman, which could lead to lower interest rates and a depreciation of the dollar [7][11] - The article highlights that the price of gold has risen significantly, with a 70% increase in 2025 and a rapid rise from around $4300 to $4600 within just 12 days in 2026 [3][11] - Future predictions for gold prices are optimistic, with institutions like CITIC Securities forecasting prices could exceed $5100 by the end of 2026, while JPMorgan is even more aggressive, predicting a rise to $6000 [11][12]

2026年1月，全球金融市场见证历史性转折——世界黄金协会最新数据显示，截至2025年11月底，美国 以外国家持有的官方黄金储备价值达3.93万亿美元，正式超越同期海外官方持有的3.88万亿美元美债规 模。这是自1996年以来，黄金首次取代美债成为全球最大储备资产，标志着国际货币体系进入深度调整 期。 黄金的崛起反映着全球储备管理理念的变迁。传统上，美债凭借流动性优势和美元霸权地位，长期占据 储备资产核心位置。但近年来，美国财政赤字持续扩大，国债规模突破36万亿美元，叠加特朗普政府频 繁使用金融制裁工具，导致美债安全性属性弱化。中国社会科学院研究显示，2020-2025年间，美国国 债市场在三次风险事件中均出现流动性枯竭，违背了安全资产"避险天堂"的定位。 中国央行的持续增持成为这场变革的重要推手。截至2025年12月末，中国黄金储备达7415万盎司，较上 月增加3万盎司，实现连续14个月增持。尽管单月增量维持在低位，但全年累计增持86万盎司的规模， 折射出战略布局的长期性。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青指出，中国黄金储备占外汇储备比重仅 9.5%，显著低于15%的全球平均水平，优化储备结构的内在需求驱动着持续购 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market experienced a significant surge, with COMEX gold surpassing $4600 per ounce and Shanghai silver futures rising by 14%, driven by concerns over Federal Reserve independence, geopolitical conflicts, central bank gold purchases, and de-dollarization trends [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 12, COMEX gold futures reached a peak of $4612 per ounce, while COMEX silver hit $84.69 per ounce, with a peak intraday increase of over 6% [2]. - In the domestic market, Shanghai gold futures peaked at 1031 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures rose by 14%, closing at 20945 yuan per kilogram, with all seven distant month contracts hitting the limit [2]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) saw all six base metal futures contracts close higher, with LME tin and copper rising approximately 5% and 2%, respectively [5]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The recent surge in precious metals is attributed to multiple factors, including the investigation of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which is seen as a long-term threat to the Fed's independence, alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions and central banks' continuous gold accumulation [2][6]. - The U.S. labor department reported a lower-than-expected increase in non-farm payrolls for December, which, combined with a declining unemployment rate and a weakening dollar, provided new support for gold prices [5]. Group 3: Risk Signals - High volatility risks are evident, with global futures exchanges frequently intervening and increasing trading margins for precious metals [3]. - The recent announcement from the Shanghai Gold Exchange highlighted significant price fluctuations and rising uncertainties, prompting a warning for members to monitor market changes closely [3]. Group 4: ETF Adjustments - To manage high inflows, gold ETFs have begun to limit subscriptions, with E Fund's gold ETF announcing a suspension of subscriptions starting January 16, aimed at protecting holder interests and ensuring stable fund operations [8]. - The adjustment in subscription terms includes raising the minimum subscription unit and streamlining the physical redemption contracts, which is expected to mitigate tracking errors due to premium discrepancies [8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the ongoing central bank gold purchases, combined with the irreversible trend of global monetary expansion and de-dollarization, will continue to support the upward trajectory of precious metals [7]. - Bloomberg Commodity Index's adjustment of gold and silver weightings is expected to create selling pressure, particularly on silver, which may experience greater volatility due to its smaller market size [9].

转自：新华财经 新华财经上海1月12日电（葛佳明） 美国司法部对美联储主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查一事持续发酵，引发 全球市场避险情绪升温，黄金、白银等贵金属持续拉升，美元指数下挫。 当地时间11日晚，美联储主席鲍威尔通过美联储官网和官方社交账号发布视频声明，证实自己正面临联 邦检察官的刑事调查。调查内容涉及美联储对其华盛顿总部大楼的翻修工程，以及鲍威尔是否就该项目 的范围向国会撒谎。 鲍威尔称，特朗普政府因他2025年夏天对美国国会所作证词，威胁对他提起刑事指控，司法部已于当地 时间1月9日向美联储发出传票。鲍威尔认为这是"借口"，目的是就美联储降息问题进一步向他施 压。"（遭刑事指控威胁）只因美联储基于对公共利益的最佳评估来设定利率，而非遵循总统的偏好。" 特朗普近期表示，他已决定了新任美联储主席人选，预计将很快宣布决定。目前，市场预测当选下一任 美联储主席概率排名前三的人选分别为，美国国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特，前美联储理事凯文·沃 什以及美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒。 分析师认为，鲍威尔频繁遭到特朗普攻击，预示着如果新任美联储主席未能兑现特朗普的期望，可能仍 将面临不确定性。特朗普明确表示，他提名的美联储 ...

1月12日，地缘政治风险的急剧上升，直接刺激了避险资产需求，推动现货黄金价格强势上涨。周一（1 月12日）亚市时段，现货黄金延续前两个交易日涨势，截至9：00，日内涨幅约1.7%，一度触及4601美 元/盎司的历史新高，目前有所回落，现交投于每盎司4580美元附近。现货白银今日早盘时刻也刷新历 史高点触及84美元。 基本消息面： 地缘政治风险全面升温成为首要推手。近期美伊紧张关系骤然升级，对全球市场构成冲击；一方面，伊 朗国内因经济危机爆发大规模抗议，局势动荡；另一方面，美国总统特朗普公开威胁可能采取军事等方 式进行干预，以支持抗议者。当地时间11日晚间，以色列国防军表示，一周前，以军曾通知黎巴嫩政府 军该地点存在军事活动，但相关基础设施未被完全拆除，因此决定再次采取行动，当天再次对黎巴嫩境 内一处真主党使用的地下武器储存设施实施空袭。欧洲方面，俄乌战场持续陷僵持，乌克兰首都基辅曾 响起强烈爆炸声，虽然媒体新闻并无报道北约实质进驻乌克兰，但钱到位，人到位，已经是一个事实。 美国联邦检察官已对美联储主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查，该调查由特朗普任命的检察官主导，被广泛视为 特朗普政府因利率分歧而对美联储施加的政治压力， ...