美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将于北京时间周四凌晨2:00公布利率决议，30分钟后美联储主席 鲍威尔将召开会后新闻发布会。尽管不太可能出台重大政策决定，但本周的会议仍充满看点。 几乎可以肯定的是，美联储的表述将与6月会议大同小异——声明内容变动不大，官员们连续第五次会 议暂缓降息。然而，几个耐人寻味的支线剧情将上演。 沃勒和鲍曼在会议前均主张降息，称鉴于关税对通胀的传导尚未显现，且如沃勒两周前在演讲中所描述 的，劳动力市场"处于边缘"，此时是美联储宽松的时机。 "通胀接近目标，通胀上行风险有限，我们不应等到劳动力市场恶化才降息，"沃勒在题为《现在就该降 息的理由》的演讲中表示。 这些言论可能会引起特朗普共鸣，不过CNBC对市场专家和经济学家的调查显示，仅14%的人认为沃勒 会获得提名，接替2026年5月任期届满的鲍威尔。排在沃勒之前的热门人选包括财政部长斯科特·贝森特 （Scott Bessent）、前美联储理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）和国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）。 特朗普曾呼吁鲍威尔辞职，甚至威胁解雇他（后作罢），并将FOMC拒绝降息归咎于这位央行领导人。 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices are currently trading around $3327.60 per ounce, showing a rebound after a significant drop, with ongoing market speculation ahead of key economic data releases and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting [1] - Crude oil prices have risen over 3% to approximately $69.22 per barrel, driven by optimism regarding the easing of trade tensions and increased pressure from the U.S. on Russia regarding the Ukraine conflict [1] - The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is expected to maintain a cautious stance, with market expectations for potential rate cuts in September or by the end of the year, which could impact the strength of the U.S. dollar and subsequently affect gold prices [1] Group 2 - Gold is currently facing resistance around $3438 and has retreated to a strong support level near $3320, indicating a potential trading opportunity for short-term positions [3] - The trading strategy for gold suggests entering long positions around $3325 with a stop loss at $3315, targeting price levels between $3338 and $3355 [3] - Crude oil is showing a strong upward trend, with a focus on confirming a second upward movement after a potential pullback, indicating a bullish outlook in the short term [3]

"毫无疑问，FOMC 将维持利率不变，" 银行政策研究所（Bank Policy Institute）首席经济学家比尔・纳 尔逊（Bill Nelson）周二在报告中明确指出。这位曾担任美联储高级经济学家的专业人士进一步分析 道："问题的关键在于，他们是否会传递出更倾向于 9 月降息的信号。" 这一观点道出了市场的核心关 切，也反映出当前货币政策走向的不确定性。 从经济现状来看，美国经济近期呈现出复杂的态势。就业市场虽仍保持一定韧性，但增速已显放缓迹 象；通胀水平虽较此前高点有所回落，但距离美联储 2% 的目标仍有差距；消费支出作为经济增长的重 要引擎，表现也时好时坏。这些相互交织的经济指标，让美联储在制定政策时面临着不小的挑战。若此 时贸然降息，可能无法有效推动经济增长，反而可能引发新的经济风险；但若持续维持高利率，又可能 加重企业融资负担，抑制经济活力。 与此同时，美国总统特朗普仍在不断呼吁美联储降息。他认为，当前的利率水平不利于美国企业在国际 市场上竞争，也制约了经济的进一步增长。特朗普的持续施压，无疑给美联储的政策制定增添了外部压 力。不过，美联储向来强调其独立性，声称货币政策的制定将完全基于经济数据 ...

张尧浠：美联储决议携手非农、金价偏震荡或走强为主 上交易日周二(7月29日)：国际黄金受到周一的止跌形态，以及回踩上升趋势线支撑的买盘入场，而反弹收阳，但仍处于中轨等均线阻力下方，空头仍占 据优势，后市需进一步走强收阳至中轨上方才能加大看涨预期，否则将有再度回落触及100日均线的风险。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3314.51美元/盎司，日内整体保持震荡上行的模式发展，于亚盘时段录得日内低点3307.89美元，于美盘时段录得日内高点 3333.88美元，最终收于3326.33美元，日振幅25.99美元，收涨11.82美元，涨幅0.36%。 影响上，一方面受到技术支撑的买盘推动，另一方面，中美也在继续推动交流，未有结果，美国与其主要贸易伙伴之间的贸易战正在减弱持乐观态度。以 及美国总统特朗普就乌克兰战争向俄罗斯施加更大压力，增加了避险情绪，再加上美联储传声筒"：美联储最终将需要继续降息，巩固了降息前景等等， 助力金价止跌。 故此，日内操作偏向高空看回落，或者是震荡走盘为主。 基本面上，美国贸易协定8月1日即将到期，但目前美国与部分各国已达成协议，中美谈判也在继续推进，即便是达成，对于金价来说，由于已经消化了乐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Makhlouf stated that inflation is stabilizing at the current stage, indicating that there is no urgency to lower interest rates [1] Group 1 - Inflation is currently stable, suggesting a balanced economic environment [1] - The ECB is not in a rush to implement interest rate cuts, reflecting confidence in the current inflation trends [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in July, with a consensus among institutions that a rate cut is not expected. However, if the Fed surprises the market with a rate cut, it could lead to significant volatility in gold prices, presenting a potential investment opportunity [3][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is influenced by tariffs and inflation, with a notable increase in average tariff rates to 20%-30% expected in 2025, which is contributing to inflationary pressures [3]. - The likelihood of a rate cut in September has risen to over 70%, but officials have indicated that any decision will depend on the impact of tariffs on inflation [4][5]. Group 2: Global Monetary Policy Divergence - There is a divergence in monetary policy between the U.S. and other regions, with the European Central Bank having cut rates seven times and other central banks like the Bank of England and those in Canada and New Zealand also implementing significant rate cuts [5]. - This divergence is contributing to a weakening U.S. dollar, which is supporting gold prices above 3300 [5]. Group 3: Gold Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to monitor the upcoming Fed meeting closely, as it could provide critical insights into future monetary policy and potential gold investment strategies [6].

隔夜，现货黄金大幅下跌，盘中最低触及近三周低点3301.29美元，收盘报3314.44美元，跌幅约0.66%，这已是连续第四个交易日下跌。今日欧市盘中， 黄金窄幅震荡，目前在3322元附近徘徊。 继续向美联储施压！ 隔夜，美股三大指数震荡分化，截至收盘，道指跌0.14%，纳指涨0.33%，标普500指数微涨0.02%。 消息面上，特朗普贸易谈判有了新进展。 当地时间7月28日，中美两国经贸团队在瑞典斯德哥尔摩举行中美经贸会谈。据悉，会议议程包括讨论当前的关税休战期可以延长多久，以及购买俄罗斯 石油的问题。 中美第一天贸易会谈结束（于当地时间晚7:50左右结束），并将于周二继续进行，未有消息传出。初步消息可能在 7月30日22:00–23:00 北京时间发布，后 续声明及细节可能延至当夜或7月31日凌晨。 这次会谈可能不会在特定的议题上取得突破，这不是一次"要谈出结果"的会，而是一次"看彼此底线"的会。 除了8月1日特朗普关税大限之外，美股市场本周将迎来一系列重磅事件的扰动，其中包括，美联储议息、科技巨头财报、非农报告和通胀数据。 根据日程安排，美股周三盘中，美联储将发布7月利率决议。 目前市场认为这次会议降息 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Decision Insights - The market anticipates a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates during the July meeting[3] - Since the beginning of 2025, the Federal Reserve has kept rates unchanged due to mixed economic data and tariff concerns[3] - President Trump has increased pressure on the Federal Reserve for rate cuts, indicating a strong desire for lower rates[3] Group 2: Future Rate Cut Conditions - The upcoming meeting may clarify conditions for potential rate cuts, with Powell likely to outline specific criteria[3] - Three scenarios are considered for Powell's communication: maintaining ambiguity, indicating a possible September cut, or outlining conditions for future cuts[3] - The likelihood of maintaining a vague stance is deemed low due to increasing pressure from Trump and potential market volatility[3] Group 3: Market Volatility and Risks - The FOMC meeting precedes significant earnings reports from major tech companies and ongoing US-China trade talks, which may heighten market volatility[3] - Risks include unexpected inflation rebounds, weaker global economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions that could lead to increased market fluctuations[6]

韩国央行会议纪要：一名委员表示仍需降息。 ...

距离美国的所谓8月1日"关税大限"日益逼近，美欧贸易协议也已经尘埃落定（至少表面上是），"懂王"特朗普自然轻松不少。 关税通牒 当地时间7月28日，特朗普表示，预计美国将对那些没有与华盛顿达成贸易协议的国家征收15%至20%的关税。其表示，美国将很快向大约200个国家发出关 税信函。这一消息很快再度引发全球媒体的热议。 特朗普此前已多次表示"时间有限""更愿意发封信设关税，而非寻求协议"。对于15%到20%的关税税率，特朗普称"我已经算是很友好了"。 另外，虽然美国目前已敲定与多个大国、包括欧盟之间的贸易协议，但不少细节尚未落实，其中存在不少的分歧，各国反对声浪不断高涨。 近日，法国总理贝鲁在社交媒体发文，批评美欧贸易协议。贝鲁在文中将美欧之间的贸易协议称为"冯德莱恩-特朗普协议"。他表示，欧盟始终团结一致捍 卫自身的价值与利益，但最终却选择了屈服，"那是一个黑暗的日子"。 匈牙利总理欧尔班表示，欧美协定比英美协定更为糟糕。欧尔班对欧盟将投资美国、向美方购买军事装备和能源表示强烈质疑，因为欧盟委员会既没有资金 也没有军队。 有分析人士指出，特朗普常常声称某些关税条款已经达成一致，但实际情况并没有他讲的那么明确 ...