就业市场处于"承压"状态而非崩溃。 对通胀压力将有所缓解抱有"谨慎乐观"态度。 美联储政策对经济活动"略显紧缩"。 关税价格调整很可能在未来半年内完成。 美国费城联储主席保尔森（2026年FOMC票委）：劳动力市场往往比GDP数据发出更清晰的信号。 通胀有望在明年恢复正常。 ...

作为2026年联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）具有投票权的委员，保尔森的表态被视为判断年内货币政策 路径的重要风向标。她明确表示，当前货币政策立场"略显紧缩"，这一状态有助于巩固通胀下行趋势， 并推动通胀率向美联储2%的长期目标靠拢。 保尔森指出，若通胀持续缓和、劳动力市场趋于稳定，且全年经济增长维持在约2%的水平，"今年晚些 时候对联邦基金利率进行一些小幅调整可能是合适的"。但她强调，这一前景高度依赖于经济基本面的 实际走向。 新华财经北京1月4日电费城联邦储备银行行长安娜·保尔森（Anna Paulson）当地时间1月3日在美国经济 学会年会前夕发表的演讲中表示，美联储在评估2025年三次降息后的经济表现时，应保持耐心，进一步 货币政策调整可能需等待更长时间的数据"沉淀"。 在劳动力市场方面，保尔森承认风险依然较高。她指出，劳动力需求放缓的速度已超过因移民政策收紧 导致的供给收缩。不过，她同时提到，近期失业保险申请人数趋于稳定，表明"劳动力市场显然正在经 历一段波动期，但并没有崩溃"。值得注意的是，其经济展望并未纳入2025年11月公布的4.6%失业率数 据——该数值为四年新高。保尔森解释称，近期联邦政府停 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian rupiah weakened against the US dollar, reversing a three-day upward trend, amid expectations of potential domestic interest rate cuts by the central bank [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - On January 2, the exchange rate for the Indonesian rupiah was approximately 16,720 rupiah per US dollar, marking a decline after a period of appreciation [1] - The rupiah depreciated about 4% throughout 2025, making it one of the weakest currencies in Asia [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Bank of Indonesia maintained the key interest rate at 4.75% during its third consecutive meeting in December, following a cumulative rate cut of 150 basis points from September 2024 to September 2025 [1] - There is potential for further monetary easing this year, as indicated by the central bank, in response to moderate inflation and the need to support economic growth following disasters in Sumatra [1] Group 3: Inflation and Market Sentiment - Market focus is shifting towards the upcoming December inflation data, which, despite remaining within the central bank's target range of 1.5% to 3.5%, has recently hovered near an 18-month high [1] - The global dollar index fell to around 98.2, reflecting a 9% decline over 2025, influenced by uncertainties in tariff policies, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and fiscal concerns [1]

费城联邦储备银行主席安娜·保尔森在美国经济学会年会演讲中评估当前美国经济形势与货币政策前景。 她强调美联储在通胀、就业和经济增长间寻求平衡。 保尔森预计通胀逐步缓和，劳动力市场趋于稳定。 2026年经济增长率或为2%左右。若上述条件实现，2026年晚些时候适度降息可能合适。这一判断基于经 济前景良好发展。政策制定者高度依赖数据。 目前美联储官员对进一步宽松步调存在分歧。部分倾向维持利率不变至获取更多通胀和就业数据。政策 制定者预测中值显示2026年可能仅降息0.25个百分点。市场预期则更为激进。 保尔森指出劳动力市场风险较高。需求放缓速度快于供应减少速度。失业保险申请人数已趋于稳定。劳 动力市场处于波动期，未崩溃。这一评估反映就业市场韧性。政策调整需细致考量。 美联储2025年已进行三次降息。 保尔森认为当前政策仍"略显紧缩"，有助于维持通胀下行压力。她预计过去与当前紧缩政策结合将推动 通胀逐步回归2%目标。关税对商品价格的影响可能在2026年上半年继续支撑通胀。下半年商品通胀将回 落至2%左右。 保尔森表示近期联邦政府停摆对数据收集的影响增加了经济状况解读的复杂性。她的展望未完全基于最 新失业率数据，更侧重 ...

FWDBONDS首席经济学家克里斯托弗·鲁普基表示："多年来，首次领取失业救济的申请在假期和恶劣 冬季天气期间波动较大，但就业市场的缺乏或实质性疲软令人印象深刻，因为经济没有接近衰退的迹 象。" 标普全球1月2日公布的数据显示，美国2025年12月制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）终值为51.8，与此前 初值及市场预期持平，但较11月的52.2有所回落。数据维持在扩张区间，显示美国制造业在多重经济压 力下仍具一定韧性，但扩张力度降至过去五个月来的最低水平，制造业复苏动能正在放缓。 从分项指标来看，12月制造业生产虽仍保持增长，增速较前一个月明显放慢；与此同时，新订单出现了 一年来的首次萎缩，反映出需求端开始显现疲态。标普全球指出，这一变化部分与关税因素有关，关税 持续推高企业运营成本，使制造业企业面临更大的经营压力。尽管如此，投入品价格和产出价格的涨幅 均降至11个月以来的最低水平，显示成本传导压力在一定程度上有所缓和。 标普全球首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson指出，目前生产增长与订单下降之间的差距已扩大至自 2008年全球金融危机高峰以来的最大水平，凸显制造业面临的潜在风险。如果需求不能尽快改善 ...

Core Viewpoint - Experts generally predict that consumer prices in 2026 will not experience significant inflation, instead showing a trend of "low and moderate recovery" with CPI expected to rise around 0.8% year-on-year, with a possibility of reaching 2.0% in a reasonable range [1] Group 1: CPI and Consumer Behavior - The CPI year-on-year growth rate has expanded, with November CPI rising by 0.7%, the highest since March 2024, driven mainly by an increase in food prices, particularly fresh vegetables which surged by 14.5% [3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, remaining above 1% for three consecutive months, indicating a recovery in consumer spending, with prices for household appliances and clothing increasing [3] Group 2: PPI and Industrial Prices - The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month in November, marking two consecutive months of growth, suggesting a gradual recovery in production material prices [4] - Prices in sectors such as coal mining, photovoltaic equipment, and lithium-ion batteries are stabilizing, with emerging industries showing significant upward price trends, which may eventually affect downstream consumer prices [4] Group 3: Policy Impact on Prices - The "anti-involution" policies implemented this year have played a crucial role in stabilizing prices, with accelerated capacity governance in key industries leading to more regulated market competition and a noticeable reduction in price declines in sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaic equipment [5] - Continued policy efforts to expand domestic demand and promote consumption are expected to further support price recovery, mitigating risks of deflation or uncontrolled inflation [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that starting from 2026, families with deposits exceeding 500,000 may face four major challenges related to low interest income, inflation, investment risks, and the increasing number of small bank failures [3][4][9] Group 2 - The first challenge is the decreasing interest income from deposits, with the interest rate for one-year large deposits dropping from 2.25% to 1.4%, resulting in a reduction of interest income by 4,250 yuan for a 500,000 yuan deposit [3][6] - The second challenge is that deposit interest income cannot keep up with inflation, as the purchasing power of the principal decreases each year due to rising prices of essential goods [4][6] - The third challenge is the confusion regarding investment options, as many depositors are uncertain about how to invest their money amidst low interest rates and high investment risks [7][8] - The fourth challenge is the increasing number of small bank failures, which poses a risk to depositors who previously favored these banks for higher interest rates [9][12] Group 3 - For risk-averse investors, it is suggested to purchase large deposits from joint-stock banks, which offer higher yields than state-owned banks while maintaining lower risks compared to small banks [12] - For investors willing to accept some risk, a diversified asset allocation strategy is recommended, dividing funds into fixed-income products, low-risk investments, and medium-risk options like mixed funds [12]

保尔森坦言，关税政策对商品价格的影响，或将导致 2026 年上半年通胀率维持在高位，但她预计，今 年下半年商品通胀率将回落至与 2% 目标相符的区间。 美联储在过去三次议息会议中累计降息 75 个基点，目前官员们对于 2026 年的降息幅度存在分歧。越来 越多的官员倾向于维持利率不变，至少要等到获取更多通胀与就业相关数据后，再做出政策调整决定。 费城联邦储备银行行长安娜・保尔森称，2026 年下半年适度追加降息或将具备合理性，但这一可能性 的前提是美国经济前景保持向好态势。 保尔森将在周六于费城举行的美国经济学会年会上发表事先准备好的演讲，她在讲稿中表示："我观察 到通胀正逐步趋缓，劳动力市场趋于稳定，今年经济增速将维持在 2% 左右。若上述态势均能实现，那 么今年晚些时候对联邦基金利率进行小幅后续调整，很可能是合理的政策选择。" 这位费城联储行长指出，劳动力市场风险仍居高不下，劳动力需求的放缓速度，已超过特朗普政府收紧 移民政策所导致的劳动力供给缩减幅度。 但她也提到，失业保险申领数据已呈现企稳迹象。她表示："尽管劳动力市场显然正承压趋缓，但并未 走向崩溃。" 保尔森认为，即便美联储近期已实施降息操作，当前 ...

美联储保尔森：关税是通胀持续高于目标的关键因素。 来源：金融界AI电报 ...

以下文章来源于格隆 ，作者万连山 格隆 . 一个游走于资本市场与佛祖之间的浪子。我可以生，可以死，我大笑，由天决定！ 本文来自微信公众号： 格隆 ，作者：万连山，题图来自：AI生成 今年是贵金属大牛之年。其中，铜的剧情最为惊奇。 我们过去称铜为"铜博士"，经济好铜涨，经济差铜跌—— 高度敏感于全球流动性、经济预期与通胀 变化。 但最近几个月发生了什么？ 全球PMI还在荣枯线挣扎，铜价却像打了激素一样往上冲。 更魔幻的是，一边是美国仓库里堆成山的现货，COMEX库存较年初暴涨330%，创下22年新高；另 一边是亚洲、欧洲陷入铜荒，LME库存跌至13万吨以下，新加坡仓库甚至出现"提货即空仓"的奇 观…… 在这个不合理的时代，种种不合理的现象，或许才是合理的。 一、单边狂欢 如果说石油是工业血液，铜就是AI时代的神经系统。 AI数据中心在本质上就是一个巨大的、发热的铜线团。 传统IDC单机柜功率仅5kW～8kW，AI数据中心机柜功率密度可达30kW～150kW，差距极其巨大。 高功率密度直接催生出两大用铜需求。 首先，电力传输需要更粗的铜芯电缆和铜母排，以降低30%以上的导电损耗。 随着芯片热设计功耗突破700W甚 ...