1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of the main contracts of Treasury bond futures this week was a volatile upward trend, with the 30 - year variety showing a relatively strong trend. The overall environment is favorable for the bond market, and Treasury bond futures may experience a slightly more volatile trend. For trading - type investments, a band - operation strategy is recommended [5][37][38] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bond Futures Market - This week, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures showed a volatile upward trend. By the end of the week, the 30 - year Treasury bond rose 0.71%, the 10 - year Treasury bond rose 0.14%, the 5 - year Treasury bond rose 0.12%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond rose 0.09% [5] Consumption Data - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41326 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 4.9%. From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% year - on - year. The retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 184324 billion yuan, an increase of 5.6% [8] - In May, driven by the trade - in policy, the retail sales of household appliances and audio - visual equipment, communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture in units above the designated size increased by 53.0%, 33.0%, 30.5%, and 25.6% respectively. The sales of basic daily necessities and some upgraded consumer goods also showed good growth momentum. The retail sales of automobiles in units above the designated size increased by 1.1% year - on - year [10] Investment Data - From January to May, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 4.0%. Among them, the broad - based infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 10.42%, the narrow - based infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 5.6%, the manufacturing investment increased by 8.5%, and the real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% [13] Real Estate Market - From January to May, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing nationwide was 35315 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%, and the sales volume was 34091 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8% [15] - In the first half of June, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 220,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10% [17] - In May, the sales prices of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 0.7% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month. The sales prices of second - hand residential properties in second - and third - tier cities decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points [21] Service Industry and Industrial Production - In May, the national service industry production index increased by 6.2% year - on - year. Among them, the production indexes of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, and wholesale and retail industries showed relatively fast growth [23] - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, slightly exceeding the market expectation of 5.7%. The product sales rate of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 95.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7 percentage points [26][28] Unemployment Rate - In May, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the same as the same period last year [31] Capital Market Interest Rates - This week, the capital market interest rates remained stable. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.37%, and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.52%. The average issuance rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.65%, a slight decline. The loan prime rate (LPR) announced on June 20 was the same as last month [34] Market Logic and Trading Strategy - The market logic is that from January to May, the fixed - asset investment growth rate was lower than market expectations, while May's consumption growth was significantly better than expected. Exports maintained a relatively high positive growth, industrial production grew steadily and rapidly, the unemployment rate decreased slightly, and the social financing scale and credit data were close to market expectations. The overall environment is favorable for the bond market [37] - The trading strategy is that trading - type investments should adopt a band - operation strategy [38]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 国债期货早报- 2025年6月20日 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230499 投资咨询证号：Z0000990 联系方式：0575-85229759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或 阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 期债 行情回顾 1、基本面：银行间主要利率债收益率多上行，短端相对偏弱。国债期货走势分化，30年期主力合约涨0.16%，5年期及2年期主力合约微跌。资金面略显敛 意，央行公开市场转为净投放驰援，存款类机构隔夜质押式回购利率微升，七天质押式回购利率则上行近2个bp。半年末资金面有些扰动，不过还是看好7 月行情，包括楼市在内的基本面数据很弱，而且大的政策宽松氛围也在。 2、资金面：6月19日，人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了2035亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量2035亿元，中标量2035亿元。 Wind数据显示，当日1193亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放842亿元。 3、基差：TS主 ...

国债期货收盘，30年期国债主连涨0.16%报121.06，10年期国债主连收平，5年期国债主连跌0.02%，2年 期国债主连跌0.01%。 ...

国债期货午盘收盘 2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约涨0.01%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约跌0.01%，10年期国债期货 （T）主力合约跌0.01%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约涨0.10%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures are all "Oscillation" [6][7][9] 2. Core Views of the Report - Stock index futures: The crowding in the Hong Kong stock market has been released. After the policy stance is released at the Lujiazui Forum, there will be no visible main line, so the operation should be defensive, waiting for the release of capital crowding [1][6] - Stock index options: The volatility is at a low quantile, and the double - buying strategy should be continued to seize potential volatility - rising opportunities [2][7] - Treasury bond futures: The bond market yield curve shows a bullish steepening. The short - end is favorable, while the long - end 10Y treasury bond yield has limited downward momentum, so attention should be paid to the curve steepening [2][7][9] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Views**: The crowding in the Hong Kong stock market has been released. The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts and their inter - period spreads have changed, and the positions have also changed [6] - **Logic**: The main lines of new consumption and innovative drugs have corrected, the momentum effect has weakened, and the Hang Seng AH Premium Index has reached a five - year low, which may drag down the A - share market. After the Lujiazui Forum, there will be no clear main line [1][6] - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see [6] 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Views**: The volatility is at a low quantile, and the double - buying strategy should be continued [7] - **Logic**: The market liquidity has not improved significantly, the volatility is at a low level, and the sentiment indicators are neutral to optimistic, but the volume is weak, so the direction strategy should be on short - term wait - and - see, and a small - position call - buying can be tried [2][7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt the double - buying strategy [7] 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Views**: The bond market yield curve shows a bullish steepening. The trading volume, positions, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and basis of T, TF, TS, and TL contracts have changed [7] - **Logic**: The MLF expired, but the inter - bank repurchase rate declined, the funds were loose, and the stock - bond seesaw effect was obvious. The central bank's attitude towards the funds is still supportive, and large banks are buying short - term bonds, but the long - term yield has limited downward momentum [2][7][9] - **Operation Suggestion**: Trend strategy: Be cautious. Hedging strategy: Pay attention to short - selling hedging at low basis levels. Basis strategy: Pay attention to the widening of the basis. Curve strategy: Steepening the curve in the medium - term has a higher odds [9] 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic data of China, the United States, the Eurozone, and Japan from June 16 - 20, 2025 are presented, including fixed - asset investment, social consumption, industrial added value, unemployment rate, CPI, and other indicators [10] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - "New Fed Wire" Nick Timiraos believes that the Fed may cut interest rates this week if it were not for tariff risks [11] - The Bank of Japan maintains the target interest rate and will reduce the purchase of Japanese government bonds starting from April 2026 [11] - China plans to implement zero - tariff measures for 53 African countries through a new free - trade agreement [12] 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but no specific data content is provided in the given text [13][17][29]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Title: "大类资产早报" - Release Date: June 17, 2025 - Author: Research Center Macro Team [2] 2. Global Asset Market Performance 2.1 Major Economies' 10 - Year Treasury Yields - On June 16, 2025, yields varied across countries, e.g., the US was 4.448%, the UK was 4.532%, and China was 1.644%. - Changes in yields differed in the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods. For example, the US had a latest change of 0.047%, a one - week change of - 0.028%, a one - month change of - 0.032%, and a one - year change of 0.172%. [3] 2.2 Major Economies' 2 - Year Treasury Yields - As of June 16, 2025, the US was 3.900%, the UK was 3.901%, and Germany was 1.838%. - Yield changes also varied over different time frames. For instance, the US had a latest change of - 0.040%, a one - week change of - 0.020%, a one - month change of - 0.060%, and a one - year change of - 0.920%. [3] 2.3 Dollar Exchange Rates against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies - On June 16, 2025, exchange rates and their changes were presented. For example, the dollar - to - Brazilian real rate was 5.493 with a latest change of - 0.92%. - Changes over one - week, one - month, and one - year periods were also provided. The dollar - to - Brazilian real had a one - week change of - 1.19%, a one - month change of - 3.05%, and a one - year change of 3.66%. [3] 2.4 Stock Indexes and Credit Bond Indexes - Stock indexes of major economies and emerging economies showed different performances. For example, the S&P 500 had a one - week change of 0.04%, a one - month change of - 3.29%, and a one - year change not given. - Credit bond indexes also had their respective changes. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of - 0.15%, a one - week change of 0.31%, a one - month change of 0.86%, and a one - year change of 4.61%. [3] 3. Stock Index Futures Trading Data 3.1 Index Performance - A - shares closed at 3388.73 with a 0.35% increase, the CSI 300 closed at 3873.80 with a 0.25% increase, etc. [4] 3.2 Valuation - PE (TTM) values were provided for different indexes, such as 12.78 for the CSI 300, 10.91 for the SSE 50, etc., along with their环比 changes. [4] 3.3 Risk Premium - Risk premium data and their环比 changes were presented for some indexes, e.g., the S&P 500 had a risk premium of - 0.55 with a环比 change of - 0.09. [4] 3.4 Fund Flows - Latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows were given for different markets, such as 122.23 for A - shares and - 595.70 for the 5 - day average. [4] 3.5 Trading Volume - Latest trading volumes and their环比 changes were provided for different markets, e.g., 12150.76 for the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets with a环比 change of - 2521.21. [4] 3.6 Basis and Spread - Basis and spread data were given for stock index futures, such as - 4.00 for the IF basis with a - 0.10% spread. [4] 4. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - Closing prices and price changes of treasury bond futures (T00, TF00, T01, TF01) were presented, all with 0.00% changes on the given day. - Money market fund rates (R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M) and their daily changes were also provided, e.g., R001 was 1.4450% with a - 13.00 BP change. [5]

观点总结 重点关注 周二国债现券收益率集体走强，到期收益率1-7Y下行1.4-3.2bp左右，10Y与30Y分别下行 0.50bp、0.70bp至1.64%、1.85%。国债期货集体走强，TS、TF、T、TL主力合约分别上涨 0.14%、0.15%、0.08%、0.24%。DR007加权利率上行至1.60%附近震荡。国内基本面端，5 月经济数据偏弱，工增小幅回落，社零超预期回升，固投规模持续收敛，失业率环比改善。金 融数据延续分化态势，政府债仍为社融主要支撑，受地产降温、隐债置换影响，企业信贷需求 走弱。贸易层面，出口前置的拉动作用持续弱化，5月出口小幅回落。海外方面，美国劳动力 市场降温，初次申请失业救济人数持续增加；关税对物价的冲击尚未显现，5月份CPI同比上涨 2.4%，PPI同比上涨2.6%，市场对美联储首次降息时点的预期调整至9月。策略方面，目前我 国内需仍待提振，基本面承压，叠加央行本月二次开展买断式逆回购，连续呵护流动性维持资 金面均衡宽松，短期内期债或维持偏强震荡走势，建议投资者保持一定仓位。 6月17日 20:30 美国5月零售销售月率 6月18日 20:30 美国至6月14日当周初请失业金 ...

国债期货早盘开盘 2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约涨0.02%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约涨0.03%，10年期国债期货 （T）主力合约持平，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约跌0.08%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On June 16, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds showed mixed trends, with those of 1 - 5Y maturities declining by about 0.2 - 1.25bp, 7Y and 30Y maturities rising by 0.10bp and 0.15bp respectively, and the 10Y maturity yield falling by 0.05bp. Treasury bond futures strengthened collectively, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising by 0.02%, 0.01%, 0.01%, and 0.05% respectively. The central bank shifted to net injection, and the weighted average rate of DR007 rose to around 1.52% and fluctuated [3]. - In terms of the domestic fundamentals, the economic data in May was weak. Industrial added - value declined slightly, social retail sales rebounded unexpectedly, the scale of fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and the unemployment rate improved month - on - month. Financial data continued to show a differentiated trend, with government bonds still being the main support for social financing. Affected by the cooling of the real estate market and the replacement of hidden debts, the corporate credit demand weakened. In the trade aspect, the pulling effect of pre - exported goods continued to weaken, and exports declined slightly in May [3]. - Overseas, the US labor market continued to show resilience. The non - farm payrolls data in May was higher than expected, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged. The impact of tariffs on prices had not yet appeared. In May, the CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and the PPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year. The market's expectation for the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve was adjusted to September [3]. - In terms of strategy, currently, China's domestic demand still needs to be boosted, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Coupled with the central bank's second conduct of outright reverse repurchase this month to continuously maintain the balance and looseness of the capital market, treasury bond futures may maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend in the short term. It is recommended that investors maintain a certain position. However, recently, the short - end treasury bond futures have been significantly weaker than the long - end, and the market differentiation is relatively serious. As the tax payment period approaches, market sentiment tends to be cautious. The weakening of the short - end and the increase in profit - taking orders may drive the yield to rise slightly in the short term and trigger the risk of a compensatory decline in the long - end. Attention should be paid to the risk of a compensatory decline in the long - end due to the short - term spread correction [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 109.015 (up 0.01%), 106.145 (unchanged), 102.466 (up 0.02%), and 120.520 (up 0.05%) respectively. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 49941 (up 963), 46176 (down 294), 24997 (down 626), and 53995 (up 235) respectively [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: The spreads of TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, TF2512 - 2509, and TS2512 - 2509 were - 0.18 (down 0.01), - 0.03 (down 0.03), 0.06 (up 0.00), and 0.12 (up 0.01) respectively. Other spreads also showed different changes [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The positions of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts remained unchanged at 194978, 151398, 117711, and 106182 respectively. The net short positions of the top 20 in T, TF, TS, and TL increased by 2198, 1859, 1730, and 665 respectively [2]. 3.2 Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of some CTD bonds showed different changes, such as 250007.IB (down 0.0222) and 2500802.IB (up 0.0225) [2]. - **Active Treasury Bonds**: The yields of active treasury bonds with maturities of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y decreased by 0.40bp, 1.50bp, 0.50bp, 0.35bp, and 0.40bp respectively [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The overnight silver - pledged repo rate decreased by 6.28bp to 1.3872%, and the 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate increased by 2.09bp to 1.5209%. Shibor overnight decreased by 2.30bp to 1.3880%, and Shibor 7 - day increased by 0.20bp to 1.5100% [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - On June 16, the central bank planned to conduct a 400 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of 6 months (182 days). The issuance scale of open - market reverse repurchase was 242 billion yuan, and the maturity scale was 173.8 billion yuan, with a net injection of 68.2 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 days [2]. 3.5 Economic Data - **Industrial and Investment Data**: In May 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to May was 19.1947 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment remained flat year - on - year. The real estate development investment from January to May was 3.6234 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7% [2]. - **Consumption Data**: In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.1326 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 20.3171 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0% [2]. - **Industrial Added - value Data**: In May, the value - added of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. From January to May, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year [2]. 3.6 Key Data to Watch - June 17, 20:30, US May retail sales monthly rate - June 18, 20:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 14 (in ten thousand people) [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on Treasury bond futures is "sideways". In the short - term (within a week), they are expected to move sideways; in the medium - term (two weeks to one month), also sideways; and intraday, they are expected to be slightly bullish [1][5]. - The core logic is that macroeconomic indicators have weakened, and the Sino - US economic and trade consultations have not achieved substantial progress, with high uncertainty remaining, which disturbs external demand. The market's expectation of monetary easing has increased, and the downside risk of Treasury bond futures is low. However, the possibility of continuous interest rate cuts in the short - term to boost demand is not high [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is "sideways", the medium - term view is "sideways", the intraday view is "slightly bullish", and the overall view is "sideways". The core logic is the weakening of macroeconomic indicators [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is "slightly bullish", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the reference view is "sideways". The core logic is that last Friday, Treasury bond futures continued to trade in a narrow range. Sino - US economic and trade consultations had no substantial progress, and external demand is disturbed. Domestic macroeconomic indicators have weakened, increasing the expectation of monetary easing. The short - term possibility of continuous interest rate cuts is low. In the short - term, Treasury bond futures will mainly move sideways, and attention should be paid to the financial policy guidance at the Lujiazui Forum on June 18 [5].