21世纪经济报道记者周潇枭 北京报道 4月28日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，邀请国家发展改革 委副主任赵辰昕、人力资源社会保障部副部长俞家栋、商务部副部长盛秋平、中国人民银行副行长邹澜 介绍稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措施有关情况，并答记者问。 面对美国滥施关税，后续中国如何加力扩内需为外界所关注。4月25日，中共中央政治局会议分析研究 当前经济形势和经济工作。会议指出，要提高中低收入群体收入，大力发展服务消费，增强消费对经济 增长的拉动作用。尽快清理消费领域限制性措施，设立服务消费与养老再贷款。加大资金支持力度，扩 围提质实施"两新"政策，加力实施"两重"建设。 国家发展改革委副主任赵辰昕在发布会上回应记者提问表示，更好发挥内需主动力作用，具体思路和方 法也非常明确，就是增加中低收入群体收入、大力提振消费，扩大有效投资，做强国内大循环。下一 步，国家发展改革委将认真落实党中央、国务院决策部署，扎实做好这三方面工作。 在提振消费方面，近期已经下达了今年第二批消费品以旧换新资金，前两批一共下达超过1600亿元，后 续还有1400亿元左右，我们会根据各地支付进度陆续下达。还将建立实施育儿补贴制度，创设专项 ...

Group 1 - A50ETF Huabao (159596) is actively traded with a transaction amount of 45.2 million yuan as of the report date [1] - CITIC Securities anticipates that domestic policies will be supportive and responsive, with April marking the first wave characterized by experimentation and prevention [1] - The current market sentiment is not low, with the technology sector being more sensitive to risk appetite recovery compared to pharmaceuticals and consumer sectors [1] Group 2 - The recent policies are described as responsive, aimed at directly assisting enterprises impacted by trade shocks, and experimental, focusing on expanding support for the service industry [1] - The Politburo meeting introduced new policy ideas, including a strong emphasis on developing service consumption and support for foreign trade enterprises [1] - A second round of policies is expected to emerge around mid-year, with May's strategy focusing on "high cut low" [1] Group 3 - A50ETF Huabao and its off-market linked funds passively track the CSI A50 Index, which includes 50 leading stocks from various sectors, representing core assets in the A-share market [2] - The index is designed to reflect benchmark core assets in the A-share market, making A50 a preferred choice for bullish sentiment on China [2] Group 4 - MACD golden cross signals have formed, indicating positive momentum for certain stocks [3]

Company Research - The company reported a revenue of 4.465 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.15%, and a net profit of 394 million yuan, up 68.89% year-on-year, with a basic earnings per share of 1.34 yuan [12] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.101 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.41%, and a net profit of 91.155 million yuan, up 62.13% year-on-year, with a basic earnings per share of 0.31 yuan [12] - The company's gross margin improved due to higher margins on staple and canned products, with gross margins increasing by 1.88 and 4.02 percentage points year-on-year to 28.16% and 31.87% respectively in 2024 and Q1 2025 [12][13] - The company focused on enhancing its own brand marketing, leading to a significant increase in brand recognition and sales, with a 131% year-on-year growth in GMV during the Double 11 shopping festival in 2024 [13][15] - The company expanded its overseas market presence, entering 9 new countries in 2024, and its overseas revenue growth rate was 14.62% for the year, with further production capacity expansion planned for Canada and the US [15][16] Industry Research - The overall number of equity funds increased to 6,774 by the end of Q1 2025, with a total scale of 74,529.42 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1,005.15 billion yuan from the previous quarter [9] - The average equity fund position increased, with flexible allocation funds seeing the largest rise of 1.44 percentage points to 71.90% [9][10] - The industry saw an increase in allocation towards automotive and non-ferrous metals, while reducing exposure to electric power equipment and non-bank financials [10][11]

Group 1: Industrial Profit Overview - In Q1 2024, industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of 15,093.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 0.8%, marking a positive turnaround from the previous months[2] - The profit growth rate for industrial enterprises in March 2024 was 2.6% year-on-year[5] - The operating income of industrial enterprises increased by 3.4% year-on-year in Q1 2024, with a revenue per 100 yuan of assets reaching 71.7 yuan, up by 4.1 yuan from the previous months[5] Group 2: Cost and Profitability Analysis - Operating costs for industrial enterprises rose by 3.6% year-on-year in Q1 2024, outpacing the revenue growth rate, indicating ongoing cost pressures[5] - The operating income profit margin for industrial enterprises was 4.7% in Q1 2024, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous months[5] - The industrial added value growth rate was 6.5% year-on-year in Q1 2024, slightly up by 0.6 percentage points from January-February[6] Group 3: Sector Contributions and Economic Outlook - Manufacturing profits grew by 7.6% year-on-year in Q1 2024, accelerating by 2.8 percentage points compared to the previous months, enhancing overall industrial profitability[9] - The mining sector's profit decreased by 25.5% year-on-year in Q1 2024, negatively impacting the overall industrial profit growth by 5.0 percentage points[8] - The central government emphasized boosting domestic demand and stabilizing investment as key economic strategies for 2024, with a focus on enhancing consumption's role in economic growth[3]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the need for policies to address external shocks, focusing on expanding domestic demand and investing in the AI industry [1][4][17] - The macro policy tone from the April Politburo meeting is described as both proactive and reserved, with an emphasis on implementing more active macro policies and enhancing counter-cyclical adjustments [1][17] - The report highlights the importance of service consumption as a key driver for expanding domestic demand, alongside a strong focus on technological innovation and the implementation of the "AI+" initiative [1][17] Group 2 - The A-share market showed a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.56% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.38% during the week of April 21-25 [7][11] - The report notes that sectors such as automotive, beauty care, and basic chemicals performed well, indicating a recovery in the export-related industries [7][14][16] - The report suggests that the AI industry is expected to see significant growth, with major Chinese internet companies increasing their capital expenditures significantly in Q4 2024, indicating a strong future performance for the domestic AI industry chain [14][24] Group 3 - The report indicates that the overall market valuation is relatively low, with the Wan De All A Index's price-to-book ratio at 1.53, which is below historical averages, suggesting strong long-term investment value [14][41] - The report highlights the potential for structural market trends post-May Day holiday, with a focus on domestic demand expansion and the AI industry as key themes [15][24] - The report identifies specific sectors for investment, including service consumption, AI industry chain components, and self-sufficiency areas such as national defense and industrial machinery [24][25][26]

①中信证券：中长期维度，三大高确定性趋势仍是选择重心；②财通证券：市场情绪逐步企稳，配置 上"以我为主、以内为主"；③长城证券：建议关注红利板块，重视经济周期下大类资产的价格规律。 ①中信证券：5月有三条线存在机会 中信证券表示，对于5月，有三条线存在机会：（1）新技术和产业题材；（2）海外科技映射链修复。 该方向主要受益于前期超跌，以及估值和业绩匹配度较高，建议关注海外算力链挂钩的光模块、PCB、 服务器等；（3）服务业扩内需，包括文旅产业链上的酒店、景区、OTA，以及医疗服务领域的眼科、 齿科、中医等。 ②财通证券：市场情绪逐步企稳，配置上"以我为主、以内为主" 财通证券表示，继汇金等国资增持ETF后市场情绪逐步企稳，3月下旬+4月以来金融/消费表现居前，月 度较全A有明显超额。从最新一季报来看，全A业绩修复，内需相关的食饮景气延续、消费龙头公司表 现更优。配置上"以我为主、以内为主"，重视内需支撑+政策预期的大金融地产链、消费、央企重组三 大权重方向，有业绩支撑+胜率催化+补涨动力+赔率性价比，仍是当前阻力较小方向： （1）大金融地产链：券商受益股市向上与央国企合并，股份行受益地产改善+补涨，地产后周期 ...

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that progress in US-China trade negotiations may be limited until all unilateral tariffs on China are completely lifted [1] - Domestic policies are characterized as stabilizing and responsive, with April representing the first wave of experimental and preventive measures [1] - The market sentiment is not considered low overall, with the technology sector being more sensitive to risk appetite recovery compared to pharmaceuticals and consumer sectors [1] Group 1 - In May, the focus will be on the rotation of new technologies and industrial themes, the repair of overseas technology mapping chains, and the implementation of domestic demand expansion policies in the service industry [1] - The current market environment favors themes that are less sensitive to performance, as the clearing of chips has been relatively thorough [1]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the need to focus on resilient companies with high dividends and those benefiting from domestic demand expansion, recommending companies such as Dongfang Yuhong, Sankeshu, Tubao, Weixing New Materials, and Beixin Building Materials [1] - The report highlights the expected commencement of major national projects, particularly the Yarlung project, and recommends companies involved in these projects, such as Zhongyan Dadi [1] - The report notes the high demand in the civil explosives sector, recommending companies like Guangdong Hongda and Xuefeng Technology [1] - The report discusses the impact of "reciprocal tariffs" on domestic investment expectations, recommending companies like China State Construction, China Communications Construction, and Sichuan Road and Bridge [1] - The report mentions the trend of domestic substitution in the paint industry, recommending companies like Maijia Xincai and Songjing Co., Ltd. [1] - The report anticipates a renewed catalyst for the "Belt and Road" strategy amid trade tensions, recommending international engineering companies such as China State Construction and China Metallurgical Group [1] Summary by Sections Market Overview - In the 17th week of April, new home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 21% year-on-year, while second-hand home transactions increased by 21% year-on-year [2][21] - The national cement market price fell by 0.5% this week, with price adjustments mainly in East, Central, and Southwest China [3][23] Cement Industry - The average operating load of cement mills nationwide is 49.04%, down 1.83 percentage points from last week [3][34] - The report indicates that the cement price is expected to continue its downward trend due to weak supply-demand dynamics [23] Recommendations - Companies with strong operational resilience and high dividends are recommended to benefit from domestic demand stimulation, including Dongfang Yuhong and Weixing New Materials [8] - Companies in the copper mining sector, such as Jinchengxin, are expected to see significant growth due to resource release and strong demand [8] - Companies involved in the Yarlung project and civil explosives are also highlighted for their growth potential [8] - The report suggests focusing on infrastructure investment, recommending companies like China State Construction and China Communications Construction [8] - The report identifies domestic paint companies as beneficiaries of the trend towards local substitution [8]

文 ｜ 裘翔 刘春彤 杨家骥 高玉森 连一席 遥远 在彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施前，中美贸易谈判可能进展有限；国内的政策是托底和应对式的，4月只是第一波以试验和预防为特征 的政策；筹码出清相对彻底且对业绩不敏感的主题阶段性占优；市场整体情绪位置不算低，科技板块相对医药和消费更接近冰点，对风偏 回升更敏感。配置上，5月关注新技术和产业题材轮动、海外科技映射链修复以及服务业扩内需政策落地。 在彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施前， 中美贸易谈判可能进展有限 近期特朗普针对关税问题表态持续反复，美股市场反应较为敏感。但我们认为国内投资者不需要花精力关心这些高频变化，特朗普试图灵活 利用关税武器来制造谈判筹码，而中国商务部新闻发言人何亚东表示"如果美方真的想解决问题，就应该正视国际社会和国内各方理性声音， 彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施，通过平等对话，找到解决分歧的办法"。我们建议还是关注特朗普未来一年面临的两大约束，一是7~8月需 要推进债务上限谈判和减税法案通过，二是明年中期选举。尽管目前特朗普的民调支持率已经开始明显下降，但这属于每个美国总统百日新 政后正常的回落，而特朗普两次任期的民调本身就比其他美国总统偏低，目前 ...

LSEG 《前瞻》中国4月底政治局会议料不轻易露"底牌"，但会释放增量信号振奋信心 - Reuters News み 2025年4月25日 10:09:44 上午 中国财长和央行行长近日出席二十国集团（G20）会议，蓝佛安强调中国主张通过平等对话协商解决贸易和关税争议；潘功胜则表示 各方应加强合作，努力避免全球经济滑向'高摩擦、低信任'的轨道。 **明确增量预期** 张迪认为，4月政治局会议或释放更加积极的工作基调：一方面、加快已有政策工具的落实、包括加快政府债券的发行进度、为下半 年政策加码腾出空间；另一方面，给出增量政策信号， 待外部环境进入稳态后， 适时推出政策储备。 路透北京4月25日 - 中国4月底即将召开政治局会议，为全年经济工作开展"划重点"。但鉴于中美谈判形势尚未明晰，分析人士普 遍预期，会议可能难见"大水漫灌"式激进策略. 因为不轻易亮出全部"底牌"。预计随着贸易战进展"攻守兼备", 择机出动, 不过他们认为，总体会议在强调落实既有政策基础上，也会释放增量政策信号提振信心。具体来看，刺激内需尤其是消费的政策将 逐渐浮出水面, 如提高居民收入、提供育儿补贴等, 后续聚焦与社会保障体系密切相关的 ...