外汇市场一周展望：多重不确定性下的波动前瞻 (2025年5月19日-5月23日) 1. 美元的信用与避险双重属性博弈： 穆迪近期将美国AAA信用评级展望下调至Aa1，并预测美国债 务/GDP比率将持续攀升，这在长期内引发了市场对美元信用风险的担忧，并可能对美债收益率构 成上行压力。 2. 美联储政策预期的矛盾： 尽管部分美联储官员（如博斯蒂克）重申了2025年可能降息一次的预 期，但最新的美国通胀预期（5月一年期通胀预期初值高达7.3%）和疲软的消费者信心数据，共 同描绘了一幅经济增长放缓与通胀压力并存的复杂图景。这种"滞胀"风险或至少是高通胀的持续 性，可能限制美联储的政策空间，使得市场对降息时点和幅度的预期摇摆不定，进而影响美元走 势。 周一 (5月19日): 中国4月经济数据 (10:00): 工业增加值、社会消费品零售总额等数据。若表现强于预期，通常被视 为全球经济需求改善的信号，有望提振澳元、纽元等商品货币 欧元区4月CPI终值 (17:00): 若最终数据较初值上修，将进一步确认欧元区通胀的黏性，可能强化 欧洲央行维持紧缩或延迟降息的预期，从而支撑欧元。 美联储官员讲话 (20:45): 副主席杰 ...

过去一周，美国三大股指集体收涨，道琼斯工业平均指数累涨3.41%，报42654.74点；纳斯达克综合指 数累涨7.15%，报19211.10点；标普500指数累涨5.27%，报5958.38点。具体板块中，科技股表现强劲， 英伟达上涨约16%，Meta平台上涨了8%，苹果股价上涨6%，微软股价上涨3%。 哈里斯金融集团（Harris Financial Group）管理合伙人杰米•考克斯（Jamie Cox）表示："市场目前正在 重新定价滞胀风险。那些曾经确信关税将立即推高通胀的基本假设，实际上并没有得到数据的支持。" 东吴期货首席投资官吴照银接受21世纪经济报道记者采访时表示，今年以来，美股大幅震荡。从今年初 一直到4月份美国加征关税，美股持续下跌。近一个月，随着关税政策缓和，美股也在逐渐回升。现在 看，关税政策对美股的影响暂告一段落。美股后面的走势，仍然要看美国经济基本面和美国的经济政 策。 美股股息率已处于较低水平 今年以来，道琼斯工业平均指数了累涨0.26%，纳斯达克综合指数累跌0.52%，标普500指数累涨 1.30%。 展望后市，吴照银分析，一季度美国经济增速低于预期，出现了0.3%的萎缩，为20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant price increases announced by Walmart in response to tariffs, which has drawn criticism from President Trump, highlighting concerns over consumer confidence and the overall economic outlook in the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Price Increases and Economic Impact - Walmart has indicated that price increases due to tariffs will affect all products, with CFO warning of unprecedented magnitude and speed of price hikes, potentially seeing double-digit increases [2][3] - Other companies, including Mattel, Microsoft, and Ford, have also announced price hikes, suggesting a broader trend across the retail sector [3] - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. has dropped to its second-lowest level on record, reflecting growing pessimism among American households regarding the economic outlook [4][6] Group 2: Credit Rating and Economic Concerns - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing increasing government debt and interest payment ratios, which are projected to rise significantly by 2035 [5][6] - The decline in consumer confidence and the downgrade in credit rating indicate a deteriorating economic environment, exacerbated by aggressive tariff policies [6][7] Group 3: Trade Negotiations and International Relations - The U.S. government is pursuing unilateral tariff policies, with Trump acknowledging the impracticality of negotiating with over 150 countries [7] - Other countries, including EU nations, are becoming increasingly assertive in trade negotiations with the U.S., seeking better terms than those offered to the UK and China [7][8] - Australia's government has expressed a commitment to maintaining strong trade relations with China, resisting U.S. pressure to limit economic ties [8]

中美经贸谈判缓和避险情绪 据央视新闻报道,中美经贸高层会谈取得了重要且实质性的进展,并达成了关键共识。特朗普政府挑起的 贸易战,一直以来都是推动今年金价飙升的主要动力之一,此前更是将黄金价格推高至约 3500 美元 / 盎司 的历史高位。如今贸易战出现缓和迹象,这一消息极大地打击了市场对于黄金的避险需求。投资者的目 光迅速从黄金转向全球两大经济体谈判所带来的积极成果,资金也开始从黄金等避险资产流向股市等风 险资产。 5 月 12 日,黄金市场遭遇了一场 "周末风暴",此次周末期间,多起重大事件密集爆发,成为金价波动的导火 索。高地集团作为深耕金融市场的专业机构,在此为您深度解读此次金价波动背后的驱动因素,并对市场 走势作出分析。 央行购金潮延续支撑长期价值 从长期视角来看,央行持续购金的趋势并未改变。中国央行已连续 6 个月增持黄金,全球范围内,今年一季 度央行净购金量高达 244 吨。各国央行积极增持黄金,背后反映的是全球长期去美元化的大逻辑。在全 球经济、政局日益复杂的背景下,黄金作为一种可靠的保值资产,其在各国央行资产配置中的重要性愈发 凸显,这为黄金价格的长期走势提供了坚实支撑。 滞胀风险隐现提升黄金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to substantial progress in US-China trade talks, leading to a decrease in gold's safe-haven premium [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - As of May 12, the international spot gold price fell below $3,300 per ounce, reaching a low of $3,208 per ounce [2]. - The Shanghai gold futures main contract closed down 2% at 772 yuan per gram, hitting a near one-month low of 767 yuan per gram during trading [3]. - Gold prices have seen a significant drop, with international gold prices falling below $3,500, $3,400, and $3,300 within two weeks, prompting profit-taking by long traders [4]. Group 2: Gold ETF Trends - The total scale of seven gold ETFs targeting SGE gold 9999 reached approximately 1,522 billion yuan by the end of April, but decreased to 1,450 billion yuan due to falling gold prices [3][4]. - In April, gold ETFs experienced a rapid inflow of funds, with over 10 billion yuan in inflows for four consecutive weeks, totaling 498 billion yuan for the month [4]. - As of May 12, the total scale of these gold ETFs rebounded to 1,490 billion yuan, indicating some funds are entering the market to buy on dips [3][4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market is characterized by high volatility and divergence, with short-term price pressures expected [6]. - The global economic landscape, including trade tensions and inflation expectations, continues to influence gold prices, with a potential for further price corrections [6][8]. - Central banks globally continue to support gold demand, with a net purchase of 244 tons in the first quarter of 2025 [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. and China are set to engage in substantial trade negotiations, with indications that the current 145% tariffs on China may be lowered in the future, reflecting a softening stance from both economic powers [1][3] - The U.S. government is under pressure to ensure that China lifts its export restrictions on rare earth materials essential for manufacturing, highlighting the urgency of the situation as supply chain disruptions loom [3][6] - The ongoing trade tensions and Trump's tariff policies are contributing to rising inflation and economic instability, leading to a lack of confidence in the U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency [3][4] Group 2 - The Chinese government has decided to engage in talks with the U.S. after evaluating the global expectations, its own interests, and the calls from U.S. industries and consumers for a resolution [6][8] - China's position remains firm, emphasizing that it will protect its development interests and uphold international fairness and justice, while also calling for the U.S. to recognize the negative impacts of unilateral tariff measures [8]

[Table_Info1] 有色金属 [Table_Date] 发布时间：2025-05-12 $$i k\neq\pm i k$$ 上次评级:优于大势 [Table_PicQuote] 历史收益率曲线 [Table_Trend] 涨跌幅（%） 1M 3M 12M 绝对收益 8% 1% -2% 相对收益 4% 2% -7% [Table_Market] 行业数据 成分股数量（只） 136 总市值（亿） 24568 流通市值（亿） 13349 市盈率（倍） 14.56 市净率（倍） 2.13 成分股总营收（亿） 31776 成分股总净利润（亿） 1882 成分股资产负债率（%） 50.80 [Table_Report] 相关报告 《黄金：情绪缓和，现实恶化，继续看多金价》 --20250506 《黄金：牛市未尽》 --20250428 《黄金：新世界秩序下的宠儿》 --20250421 《东北有色周报：关税反复+财政担忧+联储观 望，金价继续冲高》 --20250414 [Table_Author] 证券分析师：曾智勤 执业证书编号：S0550520110002 021-20363251 zengzq@nesc ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The US stock market is experiencing a downturn due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs, with the S&P 500 index down 0.47%, Nasdaq down 0.27%, and Dow Jones down 0.16% over the past week [1] - Investors are closely monitoring the high-level economic talks between China and the US, with recent meetings indicating a continued stance against excessive tariffs from the US [1][2] - The US economy is showing signs of strain, with a contraction in Q1 GDP and a potential technical recession if uncertainties persist [2][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US labor market is cooling, and consumer confidence has dropped to 52.2, with inflation expectations rising from 5.0% to 6.5% for the next year [2] - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges in balancing its dual mandate of full employment and price stability, with concerns that tariffs could lead to rising unemployment and inflation [3] - Upcoming economic data, including April CPI and retail sales, are critical for assessing the risk of stagflation, which could pressure the stock market [4] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Large-cap stocks are viewed as more defensive compared to small-cap stocks in the current economic cycle, with a recommendation to focus on high-quality companies with low debt and stable earnings [7] - There is a significant risk of a further decline in the US stock market, with estimates suggesting a potential drop of nearly 20% due to economic recession concerns [7] - Recent capital flows indicate a shift away from US equities, with $8.9 billion exiting the market while European and Japanese markets saw inflows [6]

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 海外周报 20250511 美国 4 月 CPI 前瞻：开始验收关税冲击幅度 2025 年 05 月 11 日 ◼ 海外政治：美英贸易磋商取得阶段性成果，中美高层接触释放缓和信号。 英国和美国于本周四（5 月 8 日）宣布一项降低部分商品关税的协议。 虽然特朗普此前宣布的对世界各国进口产品征收 10%的关税仍然有效， 并且仍然适用于进入美国的大多数英国商品，但该协议降低或取消了英 国部分出口产品的关税，包括汽车、钢铁和铝。特朗普在社交媒体平台 将此协议定性为"公平、开放、互惠"的贸易安排，并借机宣示其贸易 谈判策略的成效。白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特亦同步透露， 另有二十余项贸易协议正处于谈判收尾阶段。需注意的是，美英贸易谈 判的特殊性限制了其外推价值：其一，美国对英贸易长期保持顺差，特 朗普政府核心关切的贸易失衡问题在此次谈判中并非核心议题；其二， 协议内容仅针对特定商品条款展开，而非如英印自贸协定般构建全面经 贸框架。因此，美英谈判进展或难以直接映射美国与其他经济体的谈判 逻辑。在中美关系方面，双方高层于 5 月 11 日在瑞士日内瓦举行近 8 小时的实质性磋商，系 ...

Domestic Economic Developments - The People's Bank of China implemented a comprehensive monetary policy package, including a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10 basis point interest rate reduction, aimed at alleviating short-term economic downward pressure and supporting long-term structural transformation[8] - During the May Day holiday, domestic tourism saw a 6.4% year-on-year increase, with total spending reaching approximately 180.27 billion yuan, reflecting a robust domestic consumption market[6] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission introduced 25 measures to guide public funds from focusing on scale to prioritizing investor returns, which may reshape the competitive landscape of the industry[11] International Economic Developments - The U.S. ISM Services PMI for April rose to 51.6, exceeding expectations and indicating a structural divergence between a strong services sector and a weak manufacturing sector[15] - The U.S. trade deficit reached a record high of $140.5 billion in March, a 14.0% month-on-month increase, primarily due to accelerated imports ahead of tariff hikes[17] - Germany's new Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, faced a challenging political landscape, with internal party conflicts likely to intensify despite his election victory[19] Market Trends - Brent crude oil prices decreased by 1.85% week-on-week, while iron ore prices fell by 0.09%, and copper prices increased by 0.33%[23] - Real estate sales in 30 major cities dropped by 33.05% week-on-week, with first-tier cities experiencing a 42.73% decline[38] - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased by 52% year-on-year in April, indicating a recovery in consumer demand[38]