第一性原理
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哪一种人能当一把手?看任正非就懂了:必须是能提纲挈领的明白人
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-28 07:34
Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of leadership in guiding teams towards success, highlighting that effective leaders must provide clear direction and foster a sense of belonging among employees [1][3] - Successful management requires leaders to delegate authority to responsible individuals who understand their tasks deeply, ensuring that they can manage processes effectively [3][6] - Leaders should focus on major issues while allowing others to handle minor details, which enhances efficiency and clarity in operations [5][9] Group 2 - The ability to identify and address key problems is crucial for effective decision-making, as it allows leaders to navigate complexities and maintain control [6][10] - Leaders must possess a broad perspective to coordinate tasks effectively, ensuring that team members are engaged and productive [8][9] - Understanding the distinction between major and minor issues is essential for leaders, as it enables them to prioritize effectively and avoid micromanagement [9][10]
刘煜辉最新发声再谈“东升西落”:珍惜每一次激烈博弈和碰撞中,中国核心资产“倒车接人”的机会
聪明投资者· 2025-04-20 14:34
"从逻辑上推演,我坚定相信,只有'东升西落',中或最赢,没有其他结果。 " "美联储代表的是犹太资本和金融资本利益,而犹太金融资本在西方意识形态中一定占据左翼,而不是 右翼。 所以,在左右翼资深对决的时代背景下,去看在美元资产遭到巨大抛售、美元信用受到危机时,美联储 仍然采取袖手旁观的态度,是可以理解的。" " 中国 未来的 方略主要有几点 :更加开放,更加平衡,更加市场化。" 以上是中国首席经济学家论坛理事 刘煜辉 在今 天(4月20日)宁波银行私人银行投资策略会中分享的 最新观点。 对于所有事件的分析,都要结合背景回到最底层的目标,去解构其行为逻辑。 刘煜辉用了近两个小时,将特朗普发动的这场仅仅一个星期就已经"到顶"的关税战进行了详细梳理。 从大背景来看,刘煜辉表示这是美西方一场史无前例的"党争"。 特朗普作为西方政治规则下的政治人物,其真实有效的政治时间可能只有一年半,因此, 他的第一性 目标是通过"关税战"向选票基本盘展现承诺,以及巩固权力,并在中选前证明他所代表的右翼势力在美 国权力系统中已经站稳脚跟。 但是,刘煜辉强调,真正决定社会走向的是其背后的资本意志。 因此,从第一性原理角度出发,最终还是要 ...
500Wh/kg电池竞速:锂金属电池挑战全固态共识?(下)
高工锂电· 2025-04-05 10:56
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the competition between lithium metal batteries and sulfide solid-state batteries, highlighting the rapid advancements in lithium metal technology, particularly in electric aviation, while addressing the challenges faced by solid-state routes [1]. Summary by Sections Challenges and Solutions - Lithium metal batteries must overcome two main challenges: safety issues due to dendrite formation during charging, and cycle life challenges caused by irreversible side reactions between lithium metal and electrolyte [2]. - Dendrite growth can lead to internal short circuits and thermal runaway, while side reactions consume active lithium and electrolyte, resulting in rapid capacity decay [2]. Technical Strategies - The industry has explored three main strategies to address dendrite issues: 1. **Electrolyte Design**: This includes developing high-concentration or locally concentrated liquid electrolytes and solid electrolyte solutions [3]. 2. **Structured Lithium Metal Anodes**: Creating a three-dimensional conductive framework for lithium to guide uniform deposition, though this requires advanced material preparation and welding techniques [6]. 3. **Protective Layers**: Adding stable interfaces on lithium metal surfaces to enhance stability, although these layers may degrade over time [6]. Manufacturing Challenges - The soft and sticky nature of lithium metal poses significant challenges for traditional battery manufacturing processes, particularly in producing ultra-thin lithium foils [8]. - Current industrial rolling techniques can only process lithium foils thicker than 50 μm, making it difficult to achieve the desired thinness without breakage [9]. Industry Innovations - Companies like Ganfeng Lithium have achieved breakthroughs in mass production of ultra-thin lithium foils, capable of widths up to 300 mm and thicknesses down to 3 microns, indicating a move towards scalable and customized solutions [10]. - Various innovative manufacturing methods are being explored, including vapor deposition techniques that can produce high-quality lithium films [11]. Emerging Concepts - The concept of "anodeless" batteries is gaining traction, with companies like QuantumScape leading the way. This design aims to reduce lithium usage and costs while maximizing energy density [12]. - QuantumScape claims its anodeless solid-state battery can achieve over 1000 charge-discharge cycles while maintaining 95% capacity [13]. Market Dynamics - The demand for high energy density solutions, particularly in emerging fields like eVTOL, is driving the rapid development of lithium metal batteries, which may not align with the traditional solid-state roadmap [16]. - The industry's focus on sulfide solid electrolytes may create a path dependency that underestimates the potential of advanced liquid electrolytes and innovative designs like "anodeless" batteries [16]. Historical Context - Lithium metal batteries are experiencing a renaissance, building on advancements in materials science and manufacturing processes that address historical challenges of safety and cycle life [18]. - The evolution of lithium metal battery technology reflects a non-linear progression, with current developments rooted in historical research dating back to the 1970s [17].
总有人觉得VC不配谈真问题 |Findme
投中网· 2025-04-04 06:36
东四十条资本 . 聚焦股权投资行业人物、事件、数据、研究、政策解读,提供专业视角和深度洞见 | 创投圈有趣的灵魂 将投中网设为"星标⭐",第一时间收获最新推送 以下文章来源于东四十条资本 ,作者董师傅 价值观哪去了? 作者丨董师傅 来源丨东四十条资本 各位好,findme更新一期。刚才看见傅盛发视频支持朱啸虎,推荐大家看看,里边有几句话讲得挺好的,就是机器人公司把"做人形","具身智能"当成 任务了,不做就混不下去,但实际的场景,没有人做啊,连瓶水都拿不稳,估值炒这么高,有啥好处呢? 我忽然想起来去年投中年会他俩那个panel,结束的时候我说明年甭管混得好是不好,两位都回来坐坐,咱再聊一期,他俩也答应了,但眼看4.16号今年 大会要开了,阴差阳错可能凑不成局,可惜了的。 但这话题远远没完。我今天再谈它,主要是觉得,"人形机器人的泡沫"它是"真问题",就是跟所谓"假问题"相对的"真问题",从商业价值还是公共价值 上,它都值得大谈特谈,但很多人基于社会角色,认为VC不配谈这种问题。 你看投中网评论区就知道了。遍地是喷子,有一个很蠢的说法,就是认为朱啸虎是做投资的,即便你笃定你说的是真话,你也没权利说。这话非常操 ...
“黄仁勋最信赖的作者”深度交流:英伟达传奇背后以及AI的下一步
聪明投资者· 2025-04-02 03:23
Core Insights - The article discusses the rise of Nvidia as a leading company in the AI sector, driven by its CEO Jensen Huang's visionary leadership and innovative strategies [1][7][17] - It highlights Huang's unique ability to attract top talent and his commitment to pushing the boundaries of technology [2][3][57] Group 1: Jensen Huang's Leadership and Vision - Huang is portrayed as a technical genius with a passion for computer technology, which has driven Nvidia's advancements from 3D graphics to AI [2][3] - His leadership style involves inspiring employees with a vision of technological dreams rather than just financial incentives, fostering loyalty even during tough times [3][57] - Huang's approach to management includes setting ambitious goals and encouraging a culture of tackling complex challenges, which has been crucial for Nvidia's success [13][20] Group 2: Nvidia's Technological Innovations - Nvidia's success is attributed to the unexpected combination of neural networks and parallel computing, which were previously considered failures [8][10] - The development of the CUDA platform allowed Nvidia to transform its graphics cards into powerful computing tools for scientists, leading to significant advancements in AI [11][12] - Huang's decision to pivot Nvidia from a graphics company to an AI company in 2014 was a pivotal moment that positioned the company as a leader in the AI field [16][17] Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - Nvidia currently holds over 90% of the AI hardware market, reflecting its dominance in the sector [18] - The company is investing in the "Omni-verse" project, which aims to create a massive simulation environment for training robots, indicating its forward-looking strategy [66][68] - The energy demands of AI technologies pose a significant challenge, with predictions that data centers could consume 15% of the U.S. electricity by 2028, highlighting the need for investment in energy infrastructure [70][72] Group 4: Lessons from Huang's Experience - Huang's concept of "zero billion markets" emphasizes investing in unproven markets to reduce competition and build unique platforms [19] - The "light-speed" management philosophy encourages rapid product development, allowing Nvidia to outpace competitors [20][21] - Huang's focus on first principles thinking drives Nvidia's decisions, ensuring the company remains at the forefront of technological advancements [22][23] Group 5: The Future of AI and Investment Opportunities - The article discusses the dual perspectives on AI's future, with some viewing it as a transformative force for good, while others express concerns about potential risks [59][60] - The ongoing investment in AI technologies is seen as critical, with the next few years being crucial for demonstrating AI's value in everyday applications [63][64] - The energy supply challenges present an investment opportunity for those looking to capitalize on the AI theme in the coming years [73]
混沌创新院25级开启|“AI时代的EMBA”
混沌学园· 2025-03-28 12:47
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transformative power of AI as a foundational element for future prosperity, urging entrepreneurs to engage with this new era actively [2][3]. Group 1: Embracing AI Era - The transition from Web2 to the AI era is marked by unprecedented speed, with tools like ChatGPT achieving significant user milestones in a short time [2]. - Entrepreneurs are encouraged to connect with emerging technologies and trends to stay ahead in the AI landscape [2][3]. Group 2: Innovation Institute Overview - The Chaos Innovation Institute's 25th cohort offers a newly iterated curriculum focused on "AI × Innovation Methodology," aiming to equip business leaders with essential operational frameworks [5][6]. - The program includes six interactive modules designed to develop capabilities necessary for thriving in the AI era [6]. Group 3: Course Modules - The first module focuses on the first principles of human wisdom and AI, helping participants model their businesses amidst uncertainty [9]. - The second module addresses disruptive innovation, encouraging participants to identify core competencies and essential market needs [11]. - The third module explores opportunities for reconstructing industry paradigms using AI, emphasizing the analysis of value creation in typical industries [13]. Group 4: Community and Networking - The Chaos Innovation Institute has gathered over 2000 entrepreneurs and executives from diverse industries, fostering a collaborative environment for innovation [19][20]. - Alumni have successfully applied the institute's methodologies to create impactful businesses, demonstrating the effectiveness of the program [21][22]. Group 5: Target Audience - The program is tailored for individuals who have completed initial business validation and seek continuous growth, particularly founders, CEOs, and key decision-makers [23].
泥沙俱下,Manus被掩埋的价值
新财富· 2025-03-12 01:50
本文约4200字,推荐阅读时长15分钟,欢迎关注新财富公众号。 3月11日,Manus 官方正式宣布与阿里通义千问团队开展战略合作。由通义千问提供专属模型支持的 Manus 中文版本正在开发中… (由于没有邀请码测试 Ma n u s,本文侧重行业分析,体验归纳所选取的案例资料均来自于公开的测试回放) 1 创新的质疑 在 De e pSe e k 浪潮之后, "世界首个通用型AI Ag e n t "标签加持下的 Ma n u s ,注定要受到所有人的注目。 从自媒体争先恐后的"炸裂"、"上帝之手"般的吹捧,到"自嗨"、"饥饿营销"的千夫所指,Ma n u s在1 2个小时之内经历了从被吹上天到被锤到 地底的体验。 而这背后混杂的,是自媒体流量的争夺、投资人的FOMO(错失恐惧症)与普通用户对"一夜成神"故事的期待。 截至Ma n u s发布,海外AI巨头 An t h r o p i c 、Op e nAI 已经推出了Comp u t e r Us e 、Op e r a t o r这些垂类的AI通用Ag e n t,在代码垂类领域也有 De v i n AI 编程 Ag e n t 这样的产品,国内智谱也 ...
中泰资管天团 | 王路遥:投研人员的DeepSeek打开方式
中泰证券资管· 2025-03-06 08:58
Core Viewpoint - DeepSeek-R1 has achieved performance comparable to OpenAI's O1 model, indicating significant advancements in AI capabilities and its integration into everyday life, with over 1.1 billion app downloads and nearly 97 million weekly active users [1][6]. Group 1: Problem-Solving Approach - The initial step in problem-solving is redefining complex issues into clear, actionable sub-questions, which can be facilitated by DeepSeek's ability to break down problems into manageable parts [2][3]. - DeepSeek can help users generate a structured thought process, allowing for a more systematic approach to tackling complex problems, thus bridging the gap between broad questions and specific solutions [2][3]. Group 2: Question Formulation - Effective questioning is crucial; narrow and specific questions yield better responses from AI models. For instance, asking "What are the energy bureau's generator assembly targets?" is more effective than asking about broader industry trends [3][4]. - Users can leverage DeepSeek's contextual understanding to refine questions further, enhancing the depth of inquiry and leading to more insightful answers [3][4]. Group 3: AI as an Assistant - DeepSeek should be viewed as an assistant rather than a definitive source of truth, as it may generate inaccurate or misleading information, a phenomenon referred to as "hallucination" [4][5]. - The hallucination rate for DeepSeek-R1 is reported at 14.3%, highlighting the importance of verifying information and using the model for brainstorming and idea generation rather than for precise answers [5][6]. Group 4: Implications for Work and Life - The increasing integration of AI into daily tasks suggests that repetitive jobs will be increasingly automated, necessitating a shift towards independent thinking and judgment in professional settings [6][7]. - The ability to think critically and independently will become a key differentiator between human capabilities and AI, emphasizing the need for professionals to adapt to this evolving landscape [6][7].
泳池机器人「思傲拓」完成7000万元A+轮融资,以极致性价比打造出海品牌|早起看早期
36氪· 2025-03-03 00:05
公司2024年营收超1亿元,出货量近10万台。 文 | 李小霞 封面来源 | IC photo 36氪获悉,水下清洁机器人公司"思傲拓"(深圳市思傲拓科技有限公司)近日已完成7000万A+轮融资,投资方为地方产业,以及 上市公司捷荣股份等,本轮融资主要用于产品生产、备货。 " 思傲拓 " 成立于2021年10月,总部位于深圳,是一家专注于水下清洁机器人的企业,其产品泳池清洁机器人主要通过亚马逊、 Temu电商平台销往北美等海外市场,公司成立仅三年,已拥有17项自主知识产权及核心技术,并于2023年6月入选深圳市智能机 器人应用示范典型案例。 得益于技术的革新则让泳池机器人在清洁效率、智能操控等方面不断升级,以及消费者对便捷、高效泳池维护的需求增加,泳池 机器人市场近年来展示出强劲的增长势头。 此外, " 思傲拓 " 产品还具有体积小、轻巧等特点,"大部分用户是女性,轻便会很重要。"据悉,在具备相同吸污容量的情况 下,行业里其他产品的体积普遍是思傲拓产品的1.5倍。较大的体积往往意味着更高的运输成本,产品的售价可能因此相应提升。 相比之下, " 思傲拓 " 体积不大,运费更低,这进一步强化了其价格优势。 靠着超 ...
美国,要砸公务员铁饭碗了
商业洞察· 2024-11-18 08:54
来源: 地球知识局 (ID:diqiuzhishiju) 11月15日,世界首富埃隆·马斯克在X(前推特)发文说,新成立的"政府效率部"要招聘超高智商、愿 意每周工作80小时以上、不计报酬的改革者。后来还追了一条表示: "确实,这工作很无聊,树敌无数,0报酬。多么划算啊!" 这几天,美国候任总统特朗普和马斯克的"政府效率部"在全球网络沸沸扬扬。 以下文章来源于地球知识局 ,作者地球知识局 地球知识局 . 人文+地理+设计,全球视野新三观。 合作请联系:xiaobaibai_9999(注明品牌和需求) 作者: 叨叨 可以预见,二人的"胜利同盟"将密切合作,把此前竞选中的许多政策主张落实成为真正的国家行动。 此次改革,正是二人合作的第一个项目。 01 政府太大,干! 为什么特朗普第一时间就盯上了政府机构?主要有两点原因。 首先是价值观的问题。 特朗普及共和党主张"小政府"。要求限制政府规模,并尽可能避免政府干预 社会生活。这一价值观非常强调私人企业和个人决策对社会繁荣的重要性。 特朗普表示,这次改革的目标,是共和党人梦寐已久的。 其次是现实问题 。政府运转也需要耗费成本。如果政府成本过高,对社会来说是一种极大的负 ...