金十数据5月14日讯，《加快构建科技金融体制有力支撑高水平科技自立自强的若干政策举措》提到， 优化支持科技创新的结构性货币政策工具。发挥科技创新和技术改造再贷款等引导作用，扩大再贷款额 度规模，优化支持范围和流程机制，激励金融机构加大力度支持国家重大科技任务和科技型中小企业以 及重点领域技术改造和设备更新项目。 科技部等七部门：用好用足结构性货币政策工具 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the new U.S. government to impose "reciprocal tariffs" on all trade partners has triggered global reactions, with many countries seeking to restart trade negotiations, while China has implemented a series of countermeasures, including imposing equivalent tariffs on U.S. goods and placing certain U.S. companies on an unreliable entity list [1][2]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Policy Evolution - Since the reform and opening up, U.S.-China trade relations have developed through cooperation and competition, with U.S. trade policy evolving from "engagement and cooperation" to "strategic containment" [4][6]. - The U.S. has repeatedly initiated trade sanctions against China, particularly through "Section 301 investigations," citing issues like intellectual property infringement and unfair trade practices [6][7]. - The trade disputes intensified after China's accession to the WTO in 2001, leading to significant increases in trade volume and persistent trade surpluses for China [7][8]. Group 2: Impact of Tariff Shocks on Economies - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded the global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, with the U.S. growth rate expected to slow to 1.8%, the largest adjustment among developed economies [1][2]. - Tariff increases from the U.S. are expected to lead to a decline in demand for Chinese exports, affecting production capacity and employment in export-oriented sectors [11][12]. - The dual effects of supply-side and demand-side shocks from tariffs create a "stagflation" scenario, complicating monetary policy responses [15][20]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Adjustments - In response to external shocks, China is expected to adopt an expansionary monetary policy to stimulate demand and mitigate the negative impacts of tariff increases [18][21]. - The People's Bank of China has indicated a shift towards a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential interest rate cuts and liquidity support to stabilize the economy [18][22]. - Structural monetary policy tools are being utilized to guide credit towards specific sectors, particularly those affected by trade policies, to support economic stability [22][23]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff impacts necessitate a balanced approach between supply-side management and monetary policy coordination in China [26]. - The effectiveness of monetary policy may be constrained by the need to manage inflation and economic growth simultaneously, particularly in the context of U.S. monetary policy tightening [21][26]. - Future structural monetary policies will focus on supporting foreign trade enterprises while ensuring that credit allocation does not lead to systemic risks in the banking sector [24][25].

日前，中国人民银行印发《关于设立服务消费与养老再贷款有关事宜的通知》，设立服务消费与养老再 贷款，激励引导金融机构加大对住宿餐饮、文体娱乐、教育等服务消费重点领域和养老产业的金融支 持。 本报记者 谭志娟 北京报道 "服务消费与养老再贷款"工具落地。 从价格与期限来看，服务消费与养老再贷款额度5000亿元，年利率1.5%，期限1年，可展期2次，最长 使用期限不超过3年。 中国银行研究院研究员范若滢在接受《中国经营报》记者采访时表示："随着我国居民生活水平不断提 升，近年来居民对住宿餐饮、文体娱乐、教育培训等服务消费的热情明显增强，但目前我国服务供给方 面仍存在多元化、个性化、品质化服务产品不足的问题，制约了居民服务消费潜力的进一步释放。通过 加大对服务消费的金融支持，将推动服务消费领域加快补短板的步伐。" 设立服务消费与养老再贷款 此次服务消费与养老再贷款的发放对象包括国家开发银行、政策性银行、国有商业银行、中国邮政储蓄 银行、股份制商业银行等21家全国性金融机构和北京银行、上海银行、江苏银行、南京银行、宁波银行 等5家属于系统重要性金融机构的城市商业银行（以下简称"26家金融机构"）。政策执行至2027年年 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China has lowered the interest rate of structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, bringing the rate down to 1.5% [1] - Financial institutions are currently offering stock repurchase and increase loans at around 2%, which is below the average dividend yield of listed companies [1] - As of April 2025, listed companies have disclosed plans to apply for stock repurchase and increase loans amounting to over 110 billion yuan, with contracts signed for approximately 200 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The central bank announced the merger of 500 billion yuan for securities, funds, and insurance company swap facilities with 300 billion yuan for stock repurchase and increase re-loans, totaling 800 billion yuan [2] - The reduction in the interest rate for structural monetary policy tools is expected to stimulate market participants to utilize loans for repurchase and increase, enhancing market capitalization management among listed companies [2] - The combined use of these two capital market tools is aimed at improving convenience and flexibility, better meeting the needs of different market participants, and increasing the efficiency of policy fund utilization [2]

Core Viewpoint - A comprehensive set of financial policies has been introduced, indicating that the country has sufficient policy reserves and will flexibly adjust according to internal and external conditions to stabilize the market and maintain confidence [1][10]. Policy Implementation - The first interest rate cut and reserve requirement ratio reduction of the year have been implemented, along with the establishment of a service consumption and pension refinancing tool, and reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and ChiNext [2][3]. - The new financial policies are characterized by rapid implementation, with the interest rate cut announced on May 7 and executed the next day, while the reserve requirement ratio was adjusted shortly thereafter [2][4]. Focus Areas - The policies target five key areas: real estate, stock market, service consumption, technological innovation, and corporate relief, shifting the focus from merely supporting to building a solid foundation for growth [2][3][8]. - The emphasis is on preventing economic downturns while also boosting consumption, stabilizing foreign trade, and supporting technological innovation [3][4]. Structural Monetary Policy Tools - The introduction of structural monetary policy tools aims to enhance the effectiveness of financial support for key sectors, with five out of ten new monetary policies being structural in nature [8][9]. - The new refinancing tools include a focus on service consumption and pension sectors, with a total of 500 billion yuan allocated to stimulate these areas [7][9]. Economic Circulation - The policies aim to improve the circulation between residents and enterprises by lowering financing costs and increasing bank credit supply capabilities [7][8]. - The reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points is expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market [4][5]. Future Policy Space - There is potential for further policy tools to be introduced if internal and external conditions necessitate, with a focus on enhancing fiscal and monetary policy coordination [10][11]. - The government is expected to accelerate the issuance of special bonds and adjust high-risk debt areas to stimulate local investment [11].

服务消费与养老再贷款额度5000亿元，年利率1.5%，期限1年，可展期2次，最长使用期限不超过3年。 中国邮政储蓄银行研究员娄飞鹏接受《每日经济新闻》记者微信采访时指出，设立服务消费与养老再贷 款，有助于引导金融机构增加对养老领域的支持，更好发展养老金融，服务广大居民。 另有分析人士告诉《每日经济新闻》记者，这项新政策工具将激发服务消费和养老市场活力。 服务消费与养老再贷款额度5000亿元 每经记者｜张寿林 每经编辑｜陈星 5月9日，中国人民银行印发《关于设立服务消费与养老再贷款有关事宜的通知》，设立服务消费与养老 再贷款，激励引导金融机构加大对住宿餐饮、文体娱乐、教育等服务消费重点领域和养老产业的金融支 持。 娄飞鹏接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时指出，设立服务消费与养老再贷款是落实中央政治局会议决策 部署的具体体现，有助于引导金融机构更好地支持提振消费，稳定和扩大内需，巩固经济回升向好态 势。同时，也引导金融机构增加对养老领域的支持，更好地发展养老金融，服务广大居民。 分析人士告诉《每日经济新闻》记者，这项新政策工具将激发服务消费和养老市场活力。一方面，可进 一步激发国内服务消费潜力，促进扩大服务消费供给、 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced a package of financial policies aimed at providing more long-term liquidity and lower-cost funding to stabilize market expectations and strengthen financial support for the real economy [1] - The reserve requirement ratio was lowered by 0.5 percentage points, and the policy interest rate was reduced by 0.1 percentage points, with an expected release of approximately 1 trillion yuan in medium to long-term liquidity [1] - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate was decreased from 1.5% to 1.4%, and the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is expected to decline by 0.1 percentage points [1] Group 2 - New structural monetary policy tools were introduced, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the rates for special structural tools and re-lending for agriculture and small enterprises [2] - A new 500 billion yuan re-lending facility for consumption and elderly care was established to guide banks in providing lower-cost credit to these sectors, along with an additional 300 billion yuan for supporting small enterprises and rural economies [2] - A total of 8 trillion yuan in unified policy tools was created to enhance capital market liquidity and stabilize market operations, responding to the need for more proactive macro policies [2]

Group 1 - A comprehensive set of financial policies has been introduced to stabilize the market and expectations, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [1][3][5] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity to support credit and investment [5][10][15] - The policies aim to address external uncertainties and pressures on economic growth, with a focus on maintaining high-quality development [3][19][25] Group 2 - Price-based policies include a 0.25 percentage point reduction in personal housing provident fund loan rates, potentially saving borrowers around 20 billion yuan in interest payments annually [10][12][15] - Structural policies target specific sectors, with 5,000 billion yuan allocated for service consumption and elderly care loans, aimed at enhancing service quality and boosting employment [15][20][25] - The financial measures are part of a broader strategy to ensure macroeconomic stability and support small and private enterprises, with additional policies expected to be rolled out [24][25] Group 3 - The recent financial reforms also include significant changes to public fund management, focusing on aligning fund managers' performance with investor returns [22] - The government emphasizes the importance of maintaining strategic focus and effectively responding to external challenges through coordinated fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies [19][25] - The overall goal is to inject strong momentum into economic development while addressing market pain points and uncertainties [25]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic fundamental side shows a marginal recovery trend, but the recovery foundation needs to be consolidated, and policy expectations continue to increase. The overseas market shows signs of economic cooling, and the Fed's policy still favors anti - inflation. The bond market is in a sideways shock, and the bond bull environment remains unchanged. It is recommended to wait for the short - end to stabilize before making band allocations [92] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - **Contract Performance**: The 30 - year TL2506 contract fell 0.32%, the 10 - year T2506 contract rose 0.06%, the 5 - year TF2506 contract fell 0.01%, and the 2 - year TS2506 contract fell 0.02%. The trading volumes of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts all decreased, as did their open interests [11][28] - **CTD Bond Performance**: For the 30 - year, 200012.IB fell 0.33 and 210005.IB fell 0.15; for the 10 - year, 220003.IB fell 0.06 and 240025.IB remained unchanged; for the 5 - year, 240014.IB rose 0.03 and 220021.IB rose 0.11; for the 2 - year, 240024.IB rose 0.03 and 220002.IB rose 0.09 [11] 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: On May 7, China agreed to have contact with the US, and the Chinese finance minister said China would achieve the 5% growth target in 2025. On May 8, three departments issued a package of financial policies, including a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut, a 0.1 - percentage - point policy rate cut, etc. The public fund industry worth over 30 trillion yuan underwent systematic reform [31] - **International News**: On May 8, the Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 3 was 228,000, lower than expected [32] 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes**: The yield spreads between 10Y - 5Y and 10Y - 1Y bonds widened slightly. The spread between 2 - year and 5 - year main contracts widened slightly, while the spread between 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts narrowed slightly. The inter - period spreads of 10 - year, 30 - year, 2 - year, and 5 - year contracts weakened slightly [40][44][50] - **Main Contract Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 holders in the T main contract decreased slightly [61] - **Interest Rate Changes**: Overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates all declined. The DR007 weighted average rate rose to around 1.78%, and the money market tightened. The yields of short - term treasury bonds were stronger than long - term ones, with 1 - 7Y yields down 2 - 5bp and 10Y, 30Y yields up 1bp to 1.63% and 1.88% respectively. The yield spreads between US and Chinese 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds widened slightly [65][69] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 836.1 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and had 1617.8 billion yuan in reverse repurchase maturities, resulting in a net injection of 781.7 billion yuan. The DR007 weighted average rate fell to around 1.52%, and the money market tightness improved [72] - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bond issuance was 1433.8 billion yuan, total repayment was 813.6 billion yuan, and net financing was 620.169 billion yuan [76] - **Market Sentiment**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.2095, down 81 basis points this week. The spread between offshore and onshore RMB strengthened. The 10 - year US treasury bond yield rose slightly, the VIX index fell slightly, the 10 - year treasury bond yield in China rose slightly, and the A - share risk premium fell slightly [82][85][89] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: The domestic economy shows a marginal recovery, but the recovery foundation needs to be strengthened, and policy expectations will continue to increase [92] - **Overseas Situation**: The US economy shows signs of cooling, and the Fed's policy still favors anti - inflation, with the possibility of delaying the rate - cut time to July [92] - **Strategy**: The bond market is in a sideways shock. Considering the long - term need for a low - interest - rate environment, the bond bull environment remains unchanged. However, beware of the risk of long - end bond price corrections. It is recommended to wait for the short - end to stabilize before making band allocations [92]

Overview - The recent financial policy package aims to stabilize the market and economic expectations through targeted measures[1] - The central bank announced a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut, a general interest rate reduction of 10 basis points, and a structural loan interest rate cut of 25 basis points[2] Monetary Policy Measures - The total expansion of structural monetary policy tools is projected to increase the base currency by CNY 1.1 trillion, potentially raising the broad money supply (M2) by CNY 9-10 trillion, which is approximately 2.8%-3.1% of the M2 stock as of March 2023[2] - The RRR cut is expected to release about CNY 1 trillion in liquidity, effective from May 15[5] Structural Policy Focus - Specific structural loans for technology innovation and agricultural support will increase by CNY 3,000 billion each, while loans for service consumption and elderly care will expand by CNY 5,000 billion, totaling CNY 11,000 billion in new structural financial tools[8] - The reduction in public housing fund loan rates by 25 basis points is expected to save residents over CNY 200 billion in interest payments annually[8] Market Stabilization Efforts - The policy aims to enhance capital market liquidity and boost investor confidence, with measures to support insurance funds entering the market and stabilizing stock prices[7] - The government emphasizes the importance of fiscal policy in directly stimulating investment and consumption, especially in response to external trade pressures[4] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected escalations in US-China trade tensions and further declines in domestic demand, which could necessitate additional monetary and fiscal policy adjustments[9]