1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the view on natural rubber is that it will fluctuate weakly. Overseas raw material prices have briefly corrected, weakening cost support and dampening the market's bullish sentiment. The seasonal inventory accumulation trend of natural rubber remains unchanged, and the downstream production - sales pressure persists. With the commodity market under pressure, rubber prices may decline further in the short term. However, the amount of warehouse receipts may be relatively small this year, limiting the downside space. [95] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached new historical highs, ranking first globally for 17 consecutive years. The production and sales of new - energy vehicles exceeded 16 million units, and the domestic market share of new - energy vehicles exceeded 50%. The export of automobiles exceeded 7 million units, with new - energy vehicle exports reaching 2.615 million units, doubling year - on - year. In 2026, China's automobile industry will continue to pursue high - quality development. [5] - In 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 16.7% year - on - year to 8.525 million tons. [6] - In 2025, Cambodia's latex exports decreased by 12.3% year - on - year to 343,762 tons, but domestic latex consumption increased by 146% to 124,231 tons. [7] 3.2 Market Trends - This week, most domestic and foreign rubber futures prices declined, with NR leading the decline and Japanese rubber rising. On January 16, 2026, the closing prices of RU2605, NR2605, Singapore TSR20:2605, and Tokyo RSS3:2605 were 15,835 yuan/ton, 12,830 yuan/ton, 181.90 cents/kg, and 349.10 yen/kg respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 1.22%, - 1.46%, - 1.03%, and 1.01% respectively. [9][11] 3.3 Price Spreads - **Basis and Calendar Spreads**: On January 16, 2026, the basis of whole - milk rubber to RU05 was - 235 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 28.79% and a year - on - year increase of 69.08%. The 05 - 09 calendar spread was 30 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 20.00% and a year - on - year increase of 115.79%. [15] - **Other Spreads**: Spreads such as RU - NR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 decreased, while the spread of RU - BR increased. The import rubber market price fluctuated this week, and the spot price declined following the futures market at the end of the week. The spreads of whole - milk rubber to Thai mixed rubber and 3L to Thai mixed rubber widened. [16][19][21] - **Substitute Prices**: This week, the price of butadiene continued to rise. The domestic cis - butadiene rubber capacity utilization rate remained high, and the supply pressure restricted the upward movement of the negotiation price center. The mainstream supply price of cis - butadiene rubber increased slightly, and the theoretical production profit turned into a loss. The spot price gradually rose, but the trading performance was poor. [26] 3.4 Capital Flows - The virtual - to - physical ratio and the settled funds of both RU and NR decreased. On January 16, 2026, the virtual - to - physical ratios of RU and NR were 21.50 and 20.35 respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 5.33% and 2.76% respectively. The settled funds of RU and NR were 6.642 billion yuan and 2.675 billion yuan respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 3.64% and 6.23% respectively. [29][31] 3.5 Fundamental Data 3.5.1 Supply - **Weather in Producing Areas**: The rainy seasons in southern and northeastern Thailand, as well as in Hainan and Yunnan in China, have basically ended. [34][36] - **Raw Material Prices**: As the domestic producing areas enter the end of the tapping season, raw material prices rose due to restocking by overseas factories and improved EU orders but declined at the end of the week. [38] - **Raw Material Spreads**: The spread between Thai glue and cup lump widened. The domestic producing areas have basically stopped tapping, and price updates have been suspended. [43] - **Upstream Processing Profits**: The processing profits of Thai rubber were divided. The processing profit of standard rubber increased, while the profits of smoked sheet rubber and concentrated latex decreased. [44] - **Export Data**: In November 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month, with latex exports increasing slightly. In December 2025, Indonesia's natural rubber exports increased slightly month - on - month, but the exports to China decreased significantly. In November 2025, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased slightly month - on - month. In December 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports increased month - on - month, and the exports to China increased significantly. [54][60][66][68] - **Rubber Imports**: In November 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber) were 6.436 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.76%. [72] 3.5.2 Demand - **Tire Capacity Utilization and Inventory**: This week, as the production scheduling of maintenance enterprises gradually stabilized, the output increased significantly compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased due to the increase in foreign trade orders, while some all - steel tire enterprises controlled production to limit inventory growth, restricting the increase in all - steel tire capacity utilization. Both all - steel and semi - steel tires continued to accumulate inventory. [75] - **Tire Exports and Heavy - Truck Sales**: In November 2025, tire exports recovered slightly month - on - month, heavy - truck sales increased month - on - month, and the growth rate accelerated. In December 2025, passenger - car sales decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month. [82] - **Highway Freight Turnover**: In November 2025, the highway freight turnover increased month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased month - on - month. [83] 3.5.3 Inventory - **Spot Inventory**: China's natural rubber inventory continued to accumulate. The dark - colored rubber inventory increased significantly, and the overall inventory in Qingdao Port continued to accumulate. On January 9, 2026, the dark - colored rubber inventory was 835,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.55%; the light - colored rubber inventory was 421,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.84%; and the total social inventory was 1.2568 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.97%. [89][90] - **Futures Inventory**: On January 16, 2026, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 108,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.73%; the futures - spot inventory was 122,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.57%. The futures inventory of 20 - rubber on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange was 56,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.35%; the futures - spot inventory was 59,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.17%. [92] 3.6 This Week's Viewpoint Summary - **Supply**: As of Friday, the price of Thai raw material glue was 58 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup lump was 52.2 Thai baht/kg. The price of Yunnan rubber blocks was 13,200 yuan/ton. China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.256 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,000 tons or 1.9%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 835,000 tons, an increase of 2.5%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 421,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8%. Overseas raw material prices showed a downward trend, weakening cost support. [95] - **Demand**: Recently, the operation of enterprise equipment has varied. Some all - steel tire enterprises have increased shipment pressure and controlled production to manage inventory. Some semi - steel tire enterprises, supported by foreign trade orders, have increased their production to a high level. Currently, enterprises are in the inventory - building stage, and inventory continues to increase. [95] - **Viewpoint**: The short - term correction of overseas raw material prices has weakened cost support and dampened the market's bullish sentiment. The seasonal inventory accumulation trend of natural rubber remains unchanged, and the downstream production - sales pressure persists. With the commodity market under pressure, rubber prices may decline further in the short term. However, the amount of warehouse receipts may be relatively small this year, limiting the downside space. [95] - **Valuation**: On Friday, the spread between the main contracts of RU and NR was 3,090 yuan/ton, a week - on - week contraction of 55 yuan/ton. The spread between mixed standard rubber and the main contract of RU was - 905 yuan/ton, a week - on - week contraction of 90 yuan/ton. [95] - **Strategy**: 1) For unilateral trading, adopt a range - trading approach. The market may fluctuate weakly, but the downside space is limited. 2) For inter - delivery spread trading, observe. 3) For inter - commodity spread trading, go long on RU and short on NR, which may differ from the seasonal spread trend in previous years. [95]

1.92 iza I 2024—2025年，1.92亿台以旧换新家 电中，一级能效（水效）占比达90% 以上。 7761 l 家 全国累计培育绿色商场1161家、 绿色饭店3500家。 提高消费的"含绿量"、推广绿色生活方式、完善绿色循环回收体系、培育绿色流通企业……近年来， 向"绿"而行的消费新风，正催生新消费、重塑新生活。日前，国新办召开新闻发布会，介绍推进绿色消 费有关情况。透过6组数字，读懂消费升级背后的"绿色答卷"。 .94 亿人次 2024—2025年,以旧换新政策带动 消费品销售额3.92万亿元,惠及消费 者4.94亿人次。 （文章来源：人民网） ...

Core Insights - The new round of appliance trade-in policy in Guangxi has shown significant results in its first week, with 114,000 subsidies issued and a total subsidy amount of 64.99 million yuan, directly boosting appliance and digital product sales by 450 million yuan [1][4] Group 1: Policy Impact - The policy has led to a notable increase in the sales of energy-efficient appliances, with 80% of sales in a major store being of first-class energy efficiency products, reflecting a 56.18% month-on-month growth [4] - The implementation of the trade-in policy has resulted in a 46.8% year-on-year increase in sales of green smart appliances, with first-class energy efficiency products accounting for 62% of total subsidy applications [4][5] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly prioritizing energy efficiency and smart features over price, indicating a shift in purchasing behavior towards quality [4][5] - The demographic of consumers engaging in the trade-in program is diverse, with 50% of subsidy applications for digital products coming from the 25-35 age group, and older consumers also showing significant interest in smart and health-oriented products [6] Group 3: Service Enhancements - Retailers are enhancing service offerings to ensure consumers can easily access policy benefits, including dedicated support for subsidy applications and integrated old product recycling services [7] - The online and offline service model has expanded, with 27% of subsidy applications coming from online channels, facilitating a seamless process for consumers [7] Group 4: Economic Implications - The trade-in policy is viewed as a practical measure to stabilize growth and promote consumption, while also serving as a long-term strategy for industrial upgrading and green development [9]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of innovation-driven development and the integration of technology and industry to enhance productivity and competitiveness in various sectors [1][2] - Key government leaders have been conducting local investigations to outline strategies for the "14th Five-Year Plan," focusing on technological innovation, green transformation, and ensuring food security [1][2] - The government is prioritizing the development of new industries, smart technologies, and green initiatives to foster sustainable economic growth [1][2] Group 2 - The "Zhong Caiping" series of articles published in the People's Daily outlines economic work directives, emphasizing the need for localized economic strategies and the importance of consumer demand and investment [3][4] - The articles advocate for a coordinated approach to macroeconomic policies, including a moderately loose monetary policy and proactive fiscal measures to stimulate growth [3][4] - The focus is on enhancing living standards and expanding domestic consumption as a key driver for economic recovery [3][4] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China has outlined its 2026 work plan, which includes maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy and reducing financing costs for businesses to support economic development [6][7] - The plan emphasizes the importance of financial services in supporting the real economy, particularly in areas like consumer services and technological innovation [6][7] Group 4 - A notification from nine departments aims to promote green consumption, outlining tasks such as increasing the supply of green products and enhancing recycling systems [8][9] - The initiative includes developing green services and optimizing the consumption environment to encourage sustainable practices among consumers [8][9] Group 5 - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has issued guidelines to improve housing quality, focusing on standards, design, and the use of green materials [10][11] - The guidelines aim to promote smart construction and enhance the lifecycle management of housing to ensure safety and sustainability [10][11] Group 6 - An action plan for "Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing" has been released, focusing on enhancing AI capabilities and expanding its application in various industries [12][13] - The plan includes fostering innovation, optimizing the industrial ecosystem, and ensuring safety in AI applications [12][13] Group 7 - A joint opinion from four departments aims to enhance cultural and sports consumption among workers, promoting various activities and improving the overall consumption environment [14][15] - The initiative encourages the development of cultural events and sports activities to meet the spiritual and cultural needs of workers [14][15]

Group 1: Company Overview - The company, Hengxin Life Technology Co., Ltd., is involved in the production of biodegradable materials and has a comprehensive processing capability combining paper and plastic products [2][4]. - The company reported a revenue of approximately CNY 1.384 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.49%, and a net profit of approximately CNY 185 million, up 14.12% year-on-year [5][6]. Group 2: Policy and Market Trends - The domestic plastic ban policy has evolved from "limited plastic" to "banned plastic," with increasing enforcement and a focus on comprehensive and detailed governance [3]. - The European Bioplastics Association has updated its certification scheme for industrial compostable materials, effective January 2026, which includes stricter requirements for organic content [3]. Group 3: Product Development and Production Capacity - The company has developed the capability to produce PHA products, which are gaining commercial traction and can be industrially composted, home composted, and marine biodegradable [3]. - The Thailand factory began regular production in April 2025, focusing on U.S. market orders and is currently ramping up capacity [4]. Group 4: Competitive Advantages - The company possesses a full-process production capability, a diverse product range, and strong customer resources, which contribute to its competitive edge in the biodegradable product market [5]. - The company has received international compost certification for its biodegradable products, enhancing its market recognition and competitiveness [5]. Group 5: Future Growth Drivers - Future growth is expected to stem from advancements in biodegradable technology, increasing sales driven by the plastic ban policies, and the gradual release of production capacity [6]. - The company is focusing on new product development and expanding its customer base in sectors such as coffee, tea, and supermarkets [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" [51] Core Insights - The construction materials industry is experiencing a continuous release of "stabilizing real estate" signals, with further optimization of supply-side measures [2][42] - Cement production is strictly regulated according to approved capacity, with over 280 clinker production lines replaced by the end of 2025, resulting in an annual capacity reduction of 150 million tons [3][42] - The glass fiber industry is undergoing a structural recovery driven by "anti-involution" policies, with demand shifting from traditional construction materials to high-growth emerging fields [44] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The construction materials sector has shown a 3.37% increase over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.75 percentage points [11] - The cement market is facing a decline in production and prices due to reduced demand from real estate and infrastructure [3][21] Cement - The average price of cement is currently 316 RMB/ton, down 2 RMB from the previous week, with regional variations in demand affecting prices [21] - The cement industry is expected to see demand supported by major infrastructure projects and urban renewal in 2026, despite ongoing price fluctuations [3][43] Glass and Glass Fiber - The average price of float glass in December 2025 was 1121.29 RMB/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 8.14% and a year-on-year decrease of 18.0% [44] - The glass fiber sector is benefiting from high demand in advanced applications such as AI servers and 5G communications, with a focus on upgrading production technologies [44] Consumer Building Materials - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have issued a notice promoting green consumption, which is expected to drive growth in the renovation and urban renewal sectors [45] - Leading companies are enhancing their market share through brand advantages and service improvements, focusing on retail and overseas expansion [45] Recommended Stocks - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and high dividend yields, including Shangfeng Cement (000672), Tapai Group (002233), and Huaxin Cement (600801) [43][46]

| 领导人 | 时间 | 调研城市 | 调研领域 | 主要内容 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 科技创新(深港科技 创新合作区、比亚 | 李强提出科技创新是赢得未来的关键所在。要强化企业创新主体地位,完 | | | | | | 善改策、资金、人才等支持... 瞄准新兴领域和关键核心技术加强研发合作 ... | | | | | 迪) | | | | | 深圳 | 低空经济、机器人、 | | | | | | 企业技术转化应用、 | 李强指出,科技的生命在于应用,要进一步完善产业生态,培育拓展应用 | | | | | 产业集群发展(深圳 | 场景,探索有效的经营模式,推动机器人、无人机等新技术新产品在扩大 | | | | | 蛇口邮轮母港直升 | 应用中加快迭代升级,更好赋能千行百业、造福千家万户。 | | 李强(国务 | 2026/ 1/3-20 | | 机场和机器人谷) | | | 院总理) | 26/1/5 | | 交通基础建设 (深中通道) | 要充分运用先进技术,管好用好交通要道,确保安全、顺畅运行,更好促 | | | | | | 进大湾区互联互通、协同 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a series of new welfare policies aimed at enhancing public well-being and boosting consumer spending, particularly through the implementation of the "National Subsidy" program and other initiatives [1][2] - The new "National Subsidy" policy expands its coverage to include advanced technology products such as smart glasses and smart home devices, aiming to lower the barriers for consumers to access these innovations and accelerate the market shift towards intelligent, high-end, and green consumption [1] - The "old-for-new" policy specifically targets rural areas to improve consumption convenience, thereby helping rural residents upgrade their daily necessities and narrowing the urban-rural consumption gap [1] Group 2 - The new welfare policies also focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, exemplified by the expansion of the medical insurance personal account sharing policy, which now allows for broader coverage and easier access for family members across provinces [3] - The initiative aims to alleviate medical expenses for the public while enhancing the efficiency of medical insurance fund utilization, fostering a sense of care and support across regions [3] - Additionally, the promotion of green consumption is emphasized through a comprehensive action plan that includes 20 specific measures to encourage sustainable consumption practices, aiming to reduce living costs and make green choices a natural part of daily life [3] Group 3 - The government is also addressing the needs of the elderly population through measures that promote the development of elderly care services and products, including mobile bathing services and the encouragement of robotics in elderly care [5] - These initiatives aim to meet the daily care and emotional support needs of the elderly, fostering collaboration between various industries to provide comprehensive smart elderly care solutions [5] - The successful implementation of these welfare policies relies on effective coordination among local governments and departments, ensuring that the benefits reach households and enhance the quality of life for citizens [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments have jointly issued a notice to promote green consumption, outlining a clear roadmap for the green transformation of consumption patterns during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, integrating economic growth with public aspirations for a better life [1] Group 1: Green Consumption as an Economic Driver - Green consumption is viewed as a significant growth point for cultivating green productivity and stimulating domestic demand during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] - The notice outlines a comprehensive industrial chain from green product supply to service consumption and recycling, indicating substantial market potential in each segment [1] - Examples include promoting green smart appliances and supporting new energy vehicle consumption, which are directly linked to the upgrading of advanced manufacturing [1] Group 2: Local Government Initiatives - Successful local initiatives, such as Zhuhai's "Green Market" and Qingdao's smart recycling machines, demonstrate how green consumption can effectively convert ecological advantages into developmental benefits [2] - Local governments are encouraged to integrate green consumption into their development strategies, viewing it as a profound transformation rather than a mere embellishment [2] - The need to leverage local ecological and cultural resources to create unique "ecological+" consumption scenarios is emphasized [2] Group 3: Corporate Responsibility and Innovation - Companies are urged to reshape their business logic by integrating "green" into product development, manufacturing, supply chain management, and customer service [3] - Successful green consumption models should allow consumers to participate effortlessly and benefit naturally, avoiding moral constraints or high premium costs [3] - Reducing the gap between the premium of green products and consumer willingness to pay is crucial for stimulating green consumption [3] Group 4: Incentives and Consumer Engagement - Technological and model innovations are necessary to make green products and services more convenient and affordable [4] - The notice suggests promoting a green consumption points system to encourage consumers to purchase green products and use low-carbon services, linking environmental actions to tangible benefits [4] - Companies can adopt practices that visibly demonstrate the second life of recycled materials, enhancing consumer engagement and motivation [4] Group 5: Vision for Sustainable Development - The ultimate goal is to harmonize high-quality living with sustainable development through continuous promotion of green consumption, creating a better future for both current and future generations [5]

Group 1 - The core focus of Qinghai's commerce department in 2026 will be on expanding commodity consumption, enhancing service consumption, enriching consumption scenarios, and optimizing the consumption environment [1][2] - A total of over 400 consumption promotion events are planned for the year, aiming to create a favorable consumption atmosphere through a collaboration of government and enterprises, as well as online and offline integration [1][2] Group 2 - The "Qinghai Family Feast" brand will be developed over a three-year action plan, including activities such as culinary competitions and promotional events, with a goal of publishing 50 recommended dishes [2] - The province will continue to implement a consumption upgrade policy and promote "Qinghai Good Products" through e-commerce and offline activities, aiming to expand the reach of local products [3] - Efforts will be made to enhance the county-level commercial system and attract investment by introducing well-known brands and chain enterprises, with a focus on creating a new consumption landmark in key cities [3]