（文章来源：新华财经） 汇丰全球外汇研究主管保罗·梅克尔在报告中指出："当美联储重启宽松周期，而美国经济又免于衰退 时，历史经验表明美元将会走弱，这一规律很难被打破。" 虽然关于美国经济重新加速的讨论，以及近期法国和日本的政治局势动荡，确实值得让人思考美元自7 月以来的横盘走势，但市场心态变幻莫测。相信美元走强的渴望固然诱人，但现在摒弃看跌观点为时尚 早。梅克尔预计美元将在明年初触底。 新华财经北京10月14日电关于美元是否已经触底，市场上争论激烈，但汇丰银行认为美元很可能还将再 度走弱。 ...

Group 1 - The recent strength of the US dollar continues despite expectations of a rate cut, as no other currency has emerged to surpass the dollar's dominance, indicating that while the dollar's position is challenged, it remains robust [1] - Global demand for US Treasuries and the dollar has increased due to economic instability in Europe, particularly in France, and currency depreciation in Japan, leading to a favorable outlook for US debt holdings [1] - The policies implemented aim to maintain the strength of the US dollar amidst global economic fluctuations [1] Group 2 - Gold prices opened at 3893 and rose to 4058 by Thursday, followed by a pullback to 3943, indicating strong upward momentum despite fluctuations [2] - The daily chart shows a potential high engulfing pattern, making the closing price critical for determining future price movements, whether it will continue to decline or rebound [2] - Current resistance levels for gold are between 4040 and 4050, while support levels are between 3900 and 3920, suggesting a range-bound trading environment [4]

Core Insights - The global gold market experienced a significant increase in demand value, reaching a record $132 billion in Q2 2025, despite only a 3% increase in demand volume year-on-year [2] Group 1: Investment Demand - The primary driver of increased gold demand in Q2 was the investment sector, with both institutional investors and retail investors participating actively [3] - Global gold ETFs saw a substantial inflow, with holdings increasing by 170 tons in Q2 and a total of 397 tons in the first half of the year, marking the strongest performance since 2020 [3] - Retail demand for gold bars and coins rose by 11% year-on-year, with China and Europe being the main contributors, particularly China, where demand reached 115 tons, amounting to over 83 billion RMB [3][4] Group 2: Jewelry Demand - In contrast to investment demand, global gold jewelry demand fell by 14% year-on-year to 341 tons, while the monetary value of jewelry consumption increased by 21% to $36 billion [5] - The decline in jewelry volume is attributed to rising gold prices, with the average price in Q2 reaching $3,280 per ounce, a 40% increase year-on-year [6] - Consumers are increasingly viewing jewelry as an investment rather than a luxury item, with trends such as "old for new" exchanges and using jewelry as collateral for loans becoming more common [6] Group 3: Central Bank Purchases - Central banks globally net purchased 166 tons of gold in Q2, a decrease of 33% from the previous quarter, marking the lowest level since 2022 [7] - The slowdown in purchases is attributed to high gold prices, as central banks act rationally and avoid buying at peak prices [7] - Despite the decrease, the current purchasing levels are still 41% higher than the average quarterly levels from 2010 to 2021, indicating a sustained long-term interest in gold [7][8] Group 4: Future Outlook - Key variables to monitor for the gold market in the second half of the year include the performance of the US dollar, technological demand for gold, and potential changes in gold recycling rates [9] - The anticipated weakening of the dollar could lower the opportunity cost of holding gold, potentially attracting more investment [9] - The demand for gold in technology, particularly related to AI, may present new growth opportunities despite a general decline in technological gold usage [9] Group 5: Gold as a Safe Haven - Gold is viewed as a tool for managing uncertainty, serving as a risk diversification asset for institutions, a safety net for central banks, and a stabilizing component for individual investors [11] - The dynamics observed in the gold market reflect broader economic uncertainties and the varying strategies of different market participants in safeguarding their assets [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in gold and silver prices, highlighting the impact of geopolitical tensions, U.S. government shutdown, and inflation expectations on precious metals markets. It emphasizes the long-term bullish outlook for gold and silver despite short-term fluctuations [3][5][6]. Gold Market Analysis - On October 9, gold prices experienced a dramatic reversal, with COMEX December gold futures reaching nearly $4,078 before dropping to below $3,958, reflecting a daily decline of approximately 2.8% [5]. - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to the U.S. government entering a technical shutdown and delayed economic data releases, which heightened market anxiety and increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin [5][6]. - The World Gold Council reported that central banks purchased a total of 415 tons of gold in the first half of 2025, contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices [6][7]. - UBS forecasts that gold prices could rise to $4,200 per ounce in the coming months, driven by fundamental and momentum factors [7]. Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices followed a similar trajectory to gold, with COMEX December silver futures reaching $49.965 before falling to $46.89, marking a daily decline of 4.3% [10]. - The dual logic behind silver's price increase includes its financial attributes benefiting from U.S. monetary policy and its industrial applications, particularly in electronics and renewable energy [10][11]. - Silver has seen a cumulative increase of over 67% since the beginning of the year, the largest gain for the metal since 1979, outpacing gold's approximately 54% increase during the same period [11]. - Analysts caution that silver's smaller market size makes it more susceptible to volatility compared to gold, suggesting that while silver may offer speculative opportunities, gold is better suited for portfolio diversification [11][12].

10日午间，COMEX黄金期货报3987.60美元，COMEX白银期货报47.40美元，均已较周四低位反弹。 价格屡创新高的金银9日经历戏剧性的盘中逆转。 刚刚过去的9日，以色列哈马斯之间的和谈进展令美元指数上涨0.72%，突破99高位，创两个多月新高。贵金属则 随即转跌，国际金价跌破4000美元，跌幅达1.7%；现货白银历史性地自1980年来首次涨破50美元关口，上探51美 元，但随后一度回落超5.6%。但期金和现货黄金盘中均曾扭转涨跌幅，反映市场依然看好贵金属长期结构性、周 期性牛市前景。 10日午间，COMEX黄金期货报3987.60美元，COMEX白银期货报47.40美元，均已较9日低位反弹。 黄金上涨趋势不改 9日美股盘前，金价一度连续第四日创盘中最高纪录，COMEX 12月黄金期货接近4078美元，日内涨近0.2%，现货 黄金逼近4058美元，日内涨近0.4%，但午盘刷新日低，期金跌至3958美元下方，日内跌近2.8%，现货黄金跌至 39451美元，日内跌2.4%。 机构HashKey Group的首席分析师丁（Jeffrey Ding）告诉第一财经，黄金最近一波上涨背后的一个因素是，在美 国两党 ...

Core Viewpoint - The minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting are unlikely to significantly impact the US dollar, as future developments in inflation and the job market will be more decisive for the Fed's future decisions [1] Group 1 - Analyst Antje Praefcke from Deutsche Bank suggests that the upcoming minutes may highlight divisions among policymakers, but this is not a new phenomenon [1] - The current government shutdown is causing delays in the release of official data, making it meaningless to react to past statements from Fed members until new information emerges [1]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have recently increased, with NY sugar reaching a 4-week high and London sugar a 1.5-week high, supported by a weaker dollar and stronger global demand, particularly from Pakistan's order of 320,000 MT of sugar for immediate delivery [1] Group 1: Market Trends - NY sugar futures hit a 4.25-year low last Tuesday, while London sugar reached a 4-year low, continuing a 7-month downtrend due to expectations of abundant global sugar supplies [2] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season, marking the sixth consecutive year of deficits, with a projected deficit of -231,000 MT, an improvement from -4.88 MMT in 2024/25 [5] Group 2: Production Insights - Brazil's sugar output increased by +18% year-on-year in the second half of August, totaling 3.872 MT, with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar rising to 54.20% from 48.78% the previous year [3] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil for the 2025-26 season through August fell by -1.9% year-on-year to 26.758 MMT [3] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - India may divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which may not alleviate the country's sugar surplus and could lead to exports of up to 4 MMT, exceeding earlier expectations of 2 MMT [4] - Expectations for abundant sugar supplies are reinforced by projections of a 7.5 MMT global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the largest in 8 years, and a record global sugar production forecast of 189.318 MMT, up +4.7% year-on-year [6]

Core Viewpoint - Franklin Templeton's Kelly Investment report suggests that the strong dollar trend of the past 15 years may be ending, with a weaker dollar expected in the first half of 2025, although recent stability in exchange rates indicates that the decline may be due to cyclical factors [1] Group 1: Factors Influencing Dollar Weakness - The weakening of the dollar is attributed to risk-averse operations concerning U.S. assets, ongoing structural challenges from the expanding U.S. federal deficit, and trade and tariff policies from the Trump administration [1] - Short-term, the likelihood of significant depreciation of the dollar against major Asian currencies is low, as China is unlikely to allow substantial appreciation of the yuan while dealing with deflationary pressures, and the yen remains significantly undervalued [1] Group 2: Long-term Economic Outlook - In the medium term, U.S. economic growth is expected to lead globally again, which may limit downward pressure on the dollar [1] - The U.S. maintains a leading position in the AI sector, with approximately 2,000 more data centers than the combined total of the next ten countries, suggesting that ongoing infrastructure support for AI could enhance productivity and provide economic benefits that support the dollar [1] Group 3: Implications for Global Markets - The relationship between the dollar's performance and stock market performance has been closely linked over the past 50 years, indicating that the future direction of the dollar will have profound implications for global stock market leadership [1] - Investors are advised to reassess their global asset allocation, as the dynamics of the next decade may differ significantly from those of the past decade [1]

Group 1 - The core focus of the market is on the risk of a U.S. government shutdown, which could impact the upcoming non-farm payroll report and subsequently affect economic assessments and Federal Reserve policy expectations [1][2] - Investors are awaiting key economic data, including job vacancies, private employment figures, and the ISM manufacturing PMI, to gauge the health of the U.S. economy before the non-farm payroll report [1] - There is a significant expectation that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates again in October, with a probability of about 80%, contingent on the labor market showing further weakness [2][3] Group 2 - Federal Reserve officials exhibit differing views on monetary policy, with some calling for substantial rate cuts to address a potentially divided labor market [2] - Analysts suggest that if the labor market remains weak, the dollar may weaken further as the Federal Reserve is expected to implement two more rate cuts by the end of the year [3] - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and a weak economic outlook may hinder any meaningful recovery of the dollar [3]

Exchange Rate Indices - The three major RMB exchange rate indices all rose in the week of September 26, with the CFETS RMB index at 96.97, up 0.61, marking the highest level since April 2025 [1] - The BIS currency basket RMB index reached 102.87, up 0.73, also a new high since April 2025 [1] - The SDR currency basket RMB index was reported at 91.34, increasing by 0.44 [1] USD Performance and Impact on RMB - The USD index showed a "weak then strong" trend over the week, with a cumulative increase of 0.55% [5] - The onshore RMB closed at 7.1349 against the USD, down 161 basis points for the week, while the offshore RMB closed at 7.1413, down 217 basis points [5] - The RMB's middle rate against the USD was reported at 7.1152, with a weekly adjustment down of 24 basis points [5] Future Outlook on RMB - Short-term RMB appreciation remains uncertain due to internal and external pressures, with the USD's performance being a key variable [6] - Analysts expect the RMB middle rate to stabilize between 7.10 and 7.11 in the short term, with a potential for the RMB to strengthen against a basket of currencies if the middle rate remains stable [6] - By year-end, the RMB is anticipated to break below 7.10 and possibly reach 7.0, supported by factors such as increased foreign exchange settlement by enterprises and a strong middle rate signal from the central bank [7]