Core Viewpoint - President Trump believes India's proposal to reduce tariffs to zero is "too late," indicating a lack of willingness to restart trade negotiations with India [1] Group 1: Tariff Changes - The U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods as a punitive measure for India's purchase of Russian oil, doubling the previous 25% rate [1] - This new tariff affects over 55% of Indian exports to the U.S., with labor-intensive sectors like textiles and jewelry being the most impacted [1] - Major export products such as electronics and pharmaceuticals remain unaffected, allowing companies like Apple to continue their investment plans in India [1] Group 2: U.S.-India Trade Relations - The recent tariff measures have shocked Indian officials, especially after months of trade negotiations between the two countries [1] - India was one of the first countries to engage in trade talks with the Trump administration [1] Group 3: Geopolitical Context - President Trump expressed dissatisfaction with India's purchase of Russian oil, viewing it as support for Putin's war in Ukraine [1] - Indian Prime Minister Modi reaffirmed the "special" relationship between India and Russia, indicating India's commitment to maintaining trade ties with Moscow despite U.S. pressure [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed oil, it is recommended to participate with a bullish bias. The market is affected by multiple factors such as the expected increase in Canadian rapeseed production, China's anti - dumping measures, supply and demand in the domestic market, and trade negotiation news. The market may maintain a narrow - range oscillation [7][8]. - For rapeseed meal, it is recommended to adopt a bullish mindset and pay attention to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The market is influenced by factors like the expected high yield of US soybeans, domestic supply and demand, and trade negotiation news [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Summary - **Rapeseed oil**: The 01 contract closed at 9789 yuan/ton, down 101 yuan/ton from the previous week. Canada's expected increase in rapeseed production and China's anti - dumping measures may pressure Canadian rapeseed prices. Although the domestic supply of vegetable oil is relatively loose in the short - term, the low oil mill operating rate and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter reduce supply pressure. The market is affected by trade negotiation news and may maintain a narrow - range oscillation [8]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The 01 contract closed at 2513 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous week. The expected high yield of US soybeans brings supply pressure, but the decrease in planting area provides support. In the domestic market, the low arrival of rapeseed in the near - term and the peak season of aquaculture increase demand, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal. Trade negotiation news also affects the market [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price trends**: Rapeseed oil futures closed down this week with a total open interest of 263,601 lots, down 20,684 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures declined from a high level with a total open interest of 414,170 lots, down 6,858 lots from the previous week [16]. - **Top 20 net positions**: The top 20 net positions of rapeseed oil futures were +7338, with a slight increase in net long positions. The top 20 net positions of rapeseed meal futures were - 13,689, with an increase in net short positions [22]. - **Warehouse receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 3,887 lots, and those of rapeseed meal were 6,410 lots [28][29]. - **Spot prices and basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,890 yuan/ton, down from last week, and the basis was +101 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,560 yuan/ton, with little change, and the basis was +47 yuan/ton [35][41]. - **Inter - monthly spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was +164 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal was +89 yuan/ton, both at medium levels in recent years [49]. - **Futures - spot ratios**: The ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal for the 01 contract was 3.895, and the average spot price ratio was 3.86 [52]. - **Spreads between rapeseed oil and other oils/meals**: The 01 contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,431 yuan/ton, and that between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 473 yuan/ton, both with relatively oscillating spreads this week. The 01 contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 542 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 540 yuan/ton [62][68]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation 3.3.1. Rapeseed - **Supply - side - Inventory and imports**: As of August 22, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 150,000 tons. The estimated rapeseed arrivals in August, September, and October 2025 were 200,000 tons, 100,000 tons, and 150,000 tons respectively [74]. - **Supply - side - Import crushing profit**: As of August 28, the spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed was +867 yuan/ton [78]. - **Supply - side - Oil mill crushing volume**: As of the 34th week of 2025, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 45,000 tons, down 4,000 tons from last week, with an operating rate of 11.01% [82]. - **Supply - side - Monthly imports**: In July 2025, China's rapeseed import volume was 176,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 56.63% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.85 tons [86]. 3.3.2. Rapeseed oil - **Supply - side - Inventory and imports**: As of the end of the 34th week of 2025, the domestic inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 722,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.02%. In July 2025, the rapeseed oil import volume was 133,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.86% and a month - on - month decrease of 16,700 tons [90]. - **Demand - side - Consumption and production**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 4.769 million tons. As of July 31, 2025, the monthly catering revenue was 450.41 billion yuan [94]. - **Demand - side - Contract volume**: As of the end of the 34th week of 2025, the domestic contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 97,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.06% [98]. 3.3.3. Rapeseed meal - **Supply - side - Inventory**: As of the end of the 34th week of 2025, the domestic inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal was 21,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.65% [102]. - **Supply - side - Imports**: In July 2025, the rapeseed meal import volume was 183,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.00% and a month - on - month decrease of 87,200 tons [106]. - **Demand - side - Feed production**: As of July 31, 2025, the monthly feed output was 2.8273 million tons [110]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis - The implied volatility of rapeseed meal options was 21.77% as of August 29, up 0.07% from the previous week, at a slightly medium level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [114].

Industry Investment Ratings Macro Finance - Index Futures: Bullish in the medium to long term, recommend buying on dips [1] - Treasury Bonds: Hold and wait [1] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: Range trading [1] - Rebar: Range trading [1] - Glass: Weakening with oscillations [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Recommend holding a moderate long position at low levels [1] - Aluminum: Recommend buying on dips after a pullback [1] - Nickel: Recommend waiting or shorting on rallies [1] - Tin: Range trading [1] - Gold: Range trading [1] - Silver: Range trading [1] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Oscillating [1] - Soda Ash: Short 01 contract and long 05 contract for arbitrage [1] - Caustic Soda: Oscillating [1] - Styrene: Oscillating [1] - Rubber: Oscillating [1] - Urea: Oscillating [1] - Methanol: Oscillating [1] - Polyolefins: Wide - range oscillations [1] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Oscillating [1] - Apples: Oscillating [1] - Jujubes: Oscillating [1] Agricultural and Livestock - Hogs: Short on rallies [1] - Eggs: Short on rallies [1] - Corn: Wide - range oscillations [1] - Soybean Meal: Range oscillations [1] - Oils and Fats: Oscillating with a bullish bias [1] Core Views The report provides trading strategies and market analysis for various futures products across different industries. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, macro - economic policies, and international events to assess the market trends of each product and gives corresponding investment suggestions. Summary by Industry Black Building Materials - **Double Coking Coal**: Expected to oscillate. Coal prices continue to decline, with production gradually resuming after rainfall. Downstream is cautious, and it is recommended to trade within the range, with JM2601 focusing on [1110 - 1250] and J2601 on [1610 - 1780] [5] - **Rebar**: Expected to oscillate. Futures prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. Fundamental data shows changes in demand, production, and inventory. It is recommended to trade within the range, with RB2510 focusing on [3100 - 3200] [5] - **Glass**: Near - month contracts may decline slightly, and it is recommended to take a short - term bearish view. The main 01 contract is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the 1150 - 1200 range breakthrough. High inventory is the main factor suppressing prices [6] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. Positive news from the Jackson Hole meeting and domestic policies boost copper prices. Although there are some constraints in the short - term supply and demand, there is potential for price increases in the future. It is recommended to hold a moderate long position at low levels, with the short - term operating range at 79500 - 81000 yuan/ton [8][9] - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. The price of bauxite is supported, and the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing. With the arrival of the demand peak season and marginal improvement in inventory, it is recommended to buy on dips [8][9][10] - **Nickel**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The nickel industry has an oversupply situation in the medium to long term, and it is recommended to wait or short on rallies [12] - **Tin**: Expected to oscillate. Supply improvement is limited, and demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to trade within the range, with the reference range of the SHFE Tin 09 contract at 25.9 - 27.6 million yuan/ton [13] - **Silver and Gold**: Expected to oscillate. Powell's dovish speech and other factors support precious metal prices. It is recommended to buy on dips after a price correction, with the reference range of the SHFE Silver 10 contract at 8900 - 9600 and the SHFE Gold 10 contract at 765 - 810 [13][14] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate weakly. High inventory, uncertain export sustainability, and large upstream production pressure lead to a weak supply - demand situation. It is recommended to pay attention to the 5100 level pressure on the 01 contract [15][16][17] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to oscillate. Spot price increases slow down, and there is a short - term correction. It is recommended to pay attention to the 2650 level support on the 01 contract [17][18] - **Styrene**: Expected to oscillate weakly. Supply and demand are under pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 7300 level pressure [19][20] - **Rubber**: Expected to oscillate. New rubber supply is slow, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to the 15400 - 16500 range [20][21] - **Urea**: Expected to be neutral. Supply is increasing, demand is scattered, and inventory is accumulating. It is expected to be weak first and then strong, with the support level at 1680 - 1720 [22] - **Methanol**: Expected to oscillate weakly. Supply is increasing, demand has some positive factors, but port inventory is accumulating rapidly [23] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to oscillate. The cost of coal - based olefins provides strong support, supply and demand show different trends for polyethylene and polypropylene, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to the 7200 - 7500 range for L2601 and 6900 - 7200 for PP2601 [24][25] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to short the 01 contract and long the 05 contract for arbitrage. The spot market is weak, and there is a large inventory pressure in the short term, while the far - month contract may be relatively strong [26][27][28] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Expected to oscillate. Global cotton supply and demand are improving, but new cotton production is expected to increase significantly, and it is recommended to prepare for hedging [29] - **Apples**: Expected to oscillate. Early - maturing apples are on the market, and the inventory of Fuji apples is stable. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation based on low inventory and growth factors [30] - **Jujubes**: Expected to oscillate. The growth of jujubes is in the expansion period, and it is expected that the price will oscillate upward in the near future [30] Agricultural and Livestock - **Hogs**: Overall under pressure. There is a short - term expectation of price increases at the end of the month, but the supply is large in the medium to long term. It is recommended to take profit on short positions on 11 and 01 contracts and wait for rallies to add short positions, and also pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [32][33][34] - **Eggs**: It is recommended to short on rallies. The current supply is sufficient, and the long - term high supply situation may be difficult to reverse. It is recommended to wait for rallies to short on the main 10 contract or hold put options, and take a bearish view on the 12 and 01 contracts [34] - **Corn**: Expected to oscillate within a range. The supply is sufficient in the short term, and new corn production is expected to be good. It is recommended to wait for rallies to short on the 11 contract and take profit on the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage [35][36] - **Soybean Meal**: Expected to have limited upside. Domestic arrivals are abundant from September to October, and prices are under pressure, but there is support at the bottom. It is expected to trade within the [3030, 3130] range in the short term [35][38] - **Oils and Fats**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. The fundamentals of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are mixed. It is recommended to trade within the range, with the support and pressure levels for the 01 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil as mentioned, and also pay attention to the long palm oil 1 - 5 spread arbitrage strategy [39][40][41][42][43][44][45]

日本共同社：日本贸易谈判代表、日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正将取消访美行程。 ...

Core Points - The U.S. has implemented a 25% punitive tariff on goods imported from India, raising the total tariff rate to 50% for Indian products [1][2] - The Indian government is taking measures to support farmers and small businesses affected by these tariffs, while also establishing non-negotiable "red lines" in negotiations with the U.S. [1][5] Group 1: Tariff Impact - The new tariffs are a result of an executive order signed by President Trump, citing India's importation of Russian oil as the reason for the additional charges [2] - Approximately 55% of Indian products exported to the U.S. will be at a competitive disadvantage due to the increased tariffs [4] - The textile industry and seafood exporters are particularly affected, with reports of production halts and supply chain disruptions [4] Group 2: Government Response - The Indian government has announced a series of policies aimed at protecting small farmers and businesses, including tax reforms and financial assistance for affected exporters [5] - India is looking to diversify its export markets, targeting nearly 50 countries for growth in sectors like textiles, food processing, leather, and seafood [5] - Indian officials maintain that trade negotiations with the U.S. are ongoing, emphasizing the importance of protecting domestic interests [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Pro Farmer report indicates that the potential of US soybean crops is relatively stable, with supply - side pressure remaining. However, the unexpected reduction in planting area supports the price floor of US soybeans. For rapeseed - related products in the domestic market, the shortage of near - month rapeseed arrivals eases supply pressure, and the peak season of aquaculture boosts the seasonal demand for rapeseed meal. The temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed further weaken long - term supply. But the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. For rapeseed oil, in the short term, the off - season of oil consumption and sufficient domestic vegetable oil supply restrain market prices. However, the low oil mill operating rate and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter reduce supply - side pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active rapeseed oil contract is 9853 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal contract is 2501 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 654.2 Canadian dollars/ton, down 6.2 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active rapeseed contract is 4812 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan [2]. - Spreads and positions: The rapeseed oil 1 - 5 monthly spread is 170 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the rapeseed meal 1 - 5 monthly spread is 55 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 8620 lots, up 3218 lots; for rapeseed meal, they are - 15264 lots, down 4314 lots. The main contract positions for rapeseed oil are 282897 lots, and for rapeseed meal are 419022 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3887 sheets, up 400 sheets; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 7710 sheets, down 277 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10020 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2560 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10085 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed is 8147.66 yuan/ton, down 43.56 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Spreads and ratios: The oil - meal ratio is 3.78, down 0.02. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 199 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is 59 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1290 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 550 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 480 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual rapeseed production forecast is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 17.6 tons, down 0.85 tons. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 15 tons, up 4 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 27.03 tons, up 7.56 tons [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 15 tons, unchanged. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 12.79%, up 0.85 percentage points. The import rapeseed crushing profit is 632 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 10.5 tons, up 0.05 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 2.1 tons, down 0.45 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 53.6 tons, down 0.6 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 32.86 tons, down 0.73 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 4.9 tons, down 0.1 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 21.4 tons, down 0.4 tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 2.81 tons, down 0.95 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 2.79 tons, down 0.45 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production and consumption: The monthly production of feed is 2827.3 tons, down 110.4 tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 476.9 tons, up 41.8 tons. The monthly social consumer goods retail total for catering revenue is 4504.1 billion yuan, down 203.5 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.08%, up 0.08 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 20.08%, up 0.09 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 12.16%, down 2.16 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 12.17%, down 2.15 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 32.42%, up 0.1 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 21.71%, down 0.4 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 17.48%, down 2.08 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 14.4%, down 0.45 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Futures market news: On August 26, ICE rapeseed futures weakened but were still relatively strong compared to the soybean oil market. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures contract fell 4.60 Canadian dollars to settle at 654.80 Canadian dollars per ton, and the January contract fell 4.60 Canadian dollars to settle at 666.90 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - Crop forecast news: The Pro Farmer report predicts that the average yield of US soybeans will reach a record - high 53.0 bushels per acre, with a total production of 4.246 billion bushels, showing relatively stable crop potential and supply - side pressure [2]. - Policy and trade news: AAFC estimates that Canada's rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season will be 20.1 million tons, a 12.9% increase from the July estimate, and the carry - over inventory will double. China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may affect its exports and put pressure on Canadian rapeseed prices. There are signals of easing relations between China and Canada, and news of Sino - US soybean trade negotiations may affect domestic meal prices [2].

Group 1: Trade Tariffs and Impact - The United States plans to impose a 50% tariff on Indian goods, effectively acting as a ban on these products, with the new policy set to take effect on August 27, 2025 [1][3] - In 2024, the trade volume between the US and India was $128.8 billion, with India exporting $87.3 billion worth of goods to the US, making the 50% tariff a significant barrier [1] - The tariff will apply to most Indian exports to the US, except for certain electronic and pharmaceutical products which will remain exempt [3] Group 2: Industry-Specific Concerns - The Indian apparel industry, which relies heavily on the US market, could see a decline in exports by $2.5 to $3 billion due to the new tariffs, as US buyers may turn to cheaper alternatives from countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam [5] - The jewelry sector is also at risk, with 90% of diamond-studded jewelry being exported to the US, where a 10% tariff could severely impact profit margins of only 3-4% [5] - Indian shrimp exports, which are already facing a cumulative tariff of around 60%, are particularly vulnerable as the holiday season approaches, raising concerns among shrimp farmers about future sales [6] Group 3: Diplomatic Context - The trade tensions are exacerbated by India's reluctance to make concessions in negotiations with the US, which has frustrated the Trump administration [1][3] - The cancellation of a planned US trade delegation visit to India has diminished hopes for a last-minute compromise [3] - India's External Affairs Minister has emphasized the ongoing trade negotiations and the strength of US-India relations despite the current tensions [4]

中国商务部：8月25日，李成钢国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长在加拿大多伦多会见加拿大—中国贸易理事会董事会成员。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):华尔街日报：知情人士透露，中国国际贸易谈判代表李成钢将于本周晚些时候与美国贸易代表格里尔及财政部高级官员会面，李成钢还将会见美国商界代表。预计本次将商讨大豆以及20%芬太尼关税问题。特朗普周一在华盛顿会见韩国总统李在明时对记者表示，在两国继续进行贸易谈判之际，自己正考虑访问中国。 https://t.co/WoE8cwl7wD ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the U.S. President's intention to impose significant new tariffs on countries that have not abolished digital service taxes (DSTs), which are perceived as discriminatory against U.S. tech companies [1][2] - The U.S. government has been pressuring trade partners to eliminate DSTs, which primarily target large tech firms like Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon, all of which are based in the U.S. [1][3] - The European Union has reiterated that it will not change its digital regulations, specifically the Digital Markets Act and Digital Services Act, despite U.S. pressure [2][3] Group 2 - The implementation of DSTs has faced bipartisan criticism within the U.S., as these taxes are seen as potentially harming innovative American companies [3] - Countries imposing DSTs argue that large tech companies profit significantly from local markets while contributing minimally to local tax revenues [3] - The OECD is working towards an international agreement to eliminate DSTs in favor of a framework for profit allocation for tax purposes, which may face opposition from the U.S. due to potential loss of tax authority [3]

华尔街日报：知情人士透露，中国国际贸易谈判代表李成钢将于本周晚些时候与美国贸易代表格里尔及财政部高级官员会面，李成钢还将会见美国商界代表。预计本次将商讨大豆以及20%芬太尼关税问题。特朗普周一在华盛顿会见韩国总统李在明时对记者表示，在两国继续进行贸易谈判之际，自己正考虑访问中国。 https://t.co/WoE8cwl7wD ...