银行业 超配（维持） 股息铸盾，资金化矛 投 资 银行业 2026 年上半年投资策略 2025 年 12 月 9 日 S0340525040001 电话：0769-23320072 邮箱： lijiajun@dgzq.com.cn 行 业 研 究 资料来源：IFinD，东莞证券研究所 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 推荐 分析师：李嘉俊 SAC 执业证书编号： 复盘：ROE 彰显盈利韧性，增量资金追逐确定性价值。2025 年前三 季度，行业年化平均 ROE 维持在 10.73%，尽管受宏观环境影响有所 下行，但横向比较仍处于中上游水平，盈利韧性凸显。市场表现方 面，截至 11 月末，申万银行板块上涨 9.16%，各子板块实现普涨。 板块走出逆周期行情，主要得益于险资等增量资金的持续流入，以 及低利率环境下银行股高股息、盈利确定性的配置吸引力。 策 略 银行指数走势 基本面展望：政策协同稳增长，息差压力与结构分化并存。（1）量： 财政与货币政策协同发力，全方位扩大国内需求，有望为银行信 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Non-ferrous metals (general), Glass, Polycrystalline silicon, Lithium, Iron ore (far - month), JF, TF - Bearish: Industrial silicon, Palm oil, Rapeseed oil, Cotton, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Benzene, Styrene, TGB, PVC, Caustic soda, Container shipping (European line) - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock index, Treasury bonds, Copper, Aluminum oxide, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Rebar, Coke, Coking coal, Lime, JF, TF, Paper pulp, Logs, Natural rubber, BR rubber, PLA, Ethylene glycol, Short - fiber, LPG Core Views - The Politburo meeting released limited incremental information. Market attention may shift to the Central Economic Work Conference, and the stock index is expected to remain strong before it [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - LME copper's rising price may fall back after the short - term positive sentiment fades. The fundamentals of domestic alumina are weak, and its price is under pressure [1]. - The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and attention should be paid to the Fed's December interest - rate meeting. The short - term nickel price may fluctuate with the macro situation, and the long - term supply is excessive [1]. - The stainless - steel futures may rebound in the short term, and the tin price may rise in the short term but with a risk of a pull - back. The long - term view on tin is bullish [1]. - Gold and silver prices are supported, and platinum and palladium prices are expected to be supported in the short term. A long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage strategy can be continued [1]. - The prices of many industrial products such as steel, iron ore, and non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as production restrictions, demand, and supply, showing an oscillating trend [1]. - The prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as production, inventory, and demand, and are in different situations such as having support but no drive, or facing supply pressure [1]. - The prices of energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as raw material costs, supply and demand, and macro policies, showing different trends of rise, fall, or oscillation [1]. Summary by Categories Macro - financial - Stock index: Expected to remain strong before the Central Economic Work Conference [1]. - Treasury bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper: LME copper's rising price may fall back after the short - term positive sentiment fades [1]. - Aluminum oxide: Domestic production and inventory are increasing, the fundamentals are weak, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals have improved, pay attention to the Fed's December interest - rate meeting [1]. - Nickel: Short - term price may fluctuate with the macro situation, long - term supply is excessive [1]. - Stainless steel: Futures may rebound in the short term, pay attention to the actual production of steel mills [1]. - Tin: May rise in the short term but with a risk of a pull - back, long - term view is bullish [1]. Precious metals and new energy - Gold: Supported by factors such as the central bank's continuous increase in reserves and the high probability of the Fed's December interest rate cut [1]. - Silver: Supported by factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut and supply - demand imbalance, but the inventory increase may cause volatile fluctuations [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Expected to be supported in the short term, a long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage strategy can be continued [1]. - Lithium: Affected by factors such as the traditional peak season of new energy vehicles and increased supply [1]. Building materials and steel - Rebar and H - beam: 12 - month macro - drive provides rebound momentum, suitable for basis trading, do not chase high unilaterally [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month is restricted by production cuts, far - month has upward potential [1]. - Coke and Coking coal: The decline may be near the end, but the driving force needs to wait, and the downstream may start restocking in mid - December [1]. - Glass and Soda ash: Glass has supply and demand support and low valuation, but short - term sentiment dominates; soda ash follows glass, with upward resistance [1]. Agricultural products - Palm oil: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is large [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, considering shorting opportunities [1]. - Cotton: Supported by the purchase price, but lacks driving force in the short term, pay attention to future policies and demand [1]. Energy and chemical products - Crude oil and Fuel oil: Affected by factors such as OPEC + policies and sanctions, showing a bearish trend [1]. - Natural rubber and BR rubber: Affected by factors such as raw material costs, inventory, and production, showing different trends [1]. - Ethylene glycol and PTA: Affected by factors such as cost, supply and demand, and new device production, with different price trends [1]. - Styrene and TGB: Affected by factors such as market supply and demand, exports, and raw material costs, showing an oscillating trend [1]. - LPG: After the price correction, it maintains range - bound oscillation, pay attention to the impact of natural gas on near - month prices [1].

Core Insights - The latest report from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warns that retail investors' "buying frenzy" is shifting gold from a safe-haven asset to a speculative one, marking the first time in at least 50 years that both gold and stock markets have entered an "explosive zone" simultaneously [1][3][6] - Traditionally, gold and stock markets exhibit a negative correlation, but in 2025, this relationship has reversed, with both asset classes experiencing significant gains [1][6] - The report highlights the unprecedented synchronized surge of these assets, which poses substantial risks to market stability [1][3] Market Dynamics - In 2025, the correlation between gold and the S&P 500 has risen to a positive value of 0.22, indicating that both assets are now moving in tandem [6] - Central bank purchases of gold have provided a solid foundation for gold prices, while retail and institutional investors have increasingly treated gold as a speculative asset rather than a safe haven [6][9] - The AI technology boom and expectations of monetary easing have driven stock market gains, creating a "resonance" effect with gold prices [8][9] Economic Concerns - The optimism surrounding AI has begun to detach from fundamental realities, leading to concerns about a "circular financing chain" in the AI sector [8] - The weakening of the US dollar and expectations of interest rate cuts have created a favorable environment for both the stock market and gold [8][9] - The global economy is facing "asset scarcity" anxiety, with rising concerns over the stability of traditional assets and the creditworthiness of the dollar [9][11] Potential Risks - The BIS warns that if both the stock market and gold were to crash simultaneously, investors would lose their safety net, which could have dire implications for global foreign exchange reserves [11][13] - The interconnectedness of the AI sector's valuation risks and liquidity changes could lead to a sudden market breakdown if optimistic expectations are not met [11][13] - Historical precedents suggest that synchronized asset surges often end in severe corrections, as seen in past market bubbles [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the intersection of asset scarcity and reshaped demand in the credit bond market, providing a strategic outlook for 2026 [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current environment is characterized by a scarcity of assets, which is influencing investment strategies and credit bond demand [2] - There is a notable shift in demand patterns, driven by changing economic conditions and investor preferences [2] Group 2: Credit Bond Strategy - The article outlines a strategic approach for credit bonds in 2026, emphasizing the need for careful selection and risk assessment [2] - It highlights the importance of understanding macroeconomic indicators and their impact on credit markets [2] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Potential investment opportunities are identified within specific sectors that are expected to perform well despite the overall market challenges [2] - The analysis suggests focusing on high-quality issuers and sectors with resilient fundamentals [2]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market continues to show weakness, particularly in the ultra-long end, with rising yields and a notable supply-demand imbalance [1][7]. Market Performance - On December 8, the bond market experienced a general increase in yields, with the 30-year government bond yield rising by 1.75 basis points to 2.269% and the 50-year bond yield increasing by 3.9 basis points to 2.415% [2]. - The China Securities Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.40% to 483.93 points, with significant gains in several convertible bonds [2]. International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 10-year yield increasing by 3.89 basis points to 4.137% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields also increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 2.3 basis points to 1.972% [4]. Primary Market - Agricultural Development Bank's financial bonds had competitive bidding, with the 5-year bond yield at 1.7772% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.03 [5]. - The Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps' local bonds saw bid-to-cover ratios exceeding 10, indicating strong demand [5]. Liquidity and Funding - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 1,223 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 147 billion yuan for the day [6]. - Short-term funding rates, as indicated by Shibor, have generally increased, with the overnight rate rising to 1.302% [6]. Institutional Perspectives - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that while the ultra-long bonds have seen some risk release, the overall market remains cautious, with expectations of increased volatility in ultra-long bonds [7][8]. - Industry analysts from Guosheng Fixed Income do not foresee a significant long-term increase in ultra-long bond spreads but acknowledge short-term risks due to potential market shocks from institutional selling [8].

| | | | 日度策略参考 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | | 预计年内市场分歧将在股指震荡调整过程中逐步消化,后续有望 | | | | | 随着新主线的出现推动股指进一步上行。与此同时,中央汇金的 托底作用为市场提供了一定缓冲,指数下行风险整体可控。从策 | | | | | 略角度看, 近期市场的调整为明年股指进一步上行提供了布局机 | | 宏观金融 | | | 会,交易者可考虑在市场调整阶段逐步建立多头头寸,并借助股 | | | | | 指期货的贴水结构提升长线投资的胜率。 | | | 国债 | 震荡 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 答间。 | | | | | LME铜注销仓单引发挤仓担忧,铜价走高。但短期随着利好情绪消 化,铜价存在回落风险。88总 | | | | 震荡 | 短期随着利好情绪消化,价格存在回落风险。 | | | 氧化铝 | | 国内氧化铝产量及库存继续双增,基本面维持偏弱格局,价格承 压下行,关注矿端价格变化。 | | | | 農物 | 短期宏观利好消 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The REITs market is expected to continue to provide good investment opportunities due to the downward pressure on bond market interest rates and the expectation of increased allocations from social security and pension funds [5][6] - The market remains active with 13 REITs funds waiting to be listed, indicating a robust issuance market [8][5] Market Overview - As of the 49th week of 2025, the CSI REITs (closing) index was 805.28, up 3.02% year-on-year but down 0.47% month-on-month; the CSI REITs total return index was 1031.5, up 11.22% year-on-year but down 0.85% month-on-month [5][21] - The trading volume of the REITs market reached 461 million shares, a year-on-year decrease of 34.14%, with a transaction value of 1.962 billion yuan, down 23.86% year-on-year [27][5] Sector Performance - Weekly performance for various REITs sectors showed declines: affordable housing down 0.51%, environmental down 0.47%, highways down 1.12%, industrial parks down 0.95%, warehousing and logistics down 0.48%, energy down 0.14%, and consumer REITs down 1.07% [38][5] - Monthly performance also reflected declines across sectors, with affordable housing down 0.25% and other sectors showing similar trends [38][5] Regulatory Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the 2025 version of the industry scope list for infrastructure REITs, emphasizing that project initiators must be independent legal entities engaged in relevant business [6][14] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is focused on deepening capital market reforms and enhancing the attractiveness and competitiveness of the capital market, which includes the steady development of REITs and asset securitization [6][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall bond market is expected to strengthen gradually in the future due to increased capital supply and decreased financing demand, but there will be structural challenges, especially for ultra - long bonds. The adjustment of ultra - long bonds may be nearing the end, but their stabilization depends on the changes in the selling power of trading institutions. The slope of the yield curve next year may be more determined by regulations. The structural pressure on ultra - long bonds is expected to ease in mid - to late December. It is recommended to conduct right - side trading and wait for the market to stabilize before making allocations. The bond market is expected to have a trending market from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield may hit a new low in the first quarter of next year [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Current Bond Market Situation - This week, the bond market saw a unilateral adjustment in ultra - long bonds. The 30 - year Treasury bond yield rose significantly by 7.2 bps to 2.26%, and the 50 - year Treasury bond yield soared by 9.7 bps. However, Treasury bonds with maturities of 10 years and less remained stable, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising only slightly by 0.7 bps, and the yields of 1 - 3 - year Treasury bonds even declining slightly. Government financial bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds, which are held more concentratedly by public funds, also adjusted along with ultra - long bonds. The yield of 1 - year AAA certificates of deposit rose by 1 bps to 1.66% this week [1][8] 3.2 Reasons for the Overall Bond Market Strength 3.2.1 Capital Supply - The real estate slowdown will increase the capital supply in the bond market. The sum of the scales of household deposits, wealth management products, insurance, money market funds, and bond funds, which represents the capital source of the broad fixed - income market, showed a decline in growth in the first half of this year but has rebounded in recent months, mainly due to the impact of real estate. As household savings are relatively stable, but the structure of incremental household savings may change significantly, there is a high negative correlation between housing and low - risk financial assets. The recovery of real estate sales from the fourth quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year diverted the capital inflow into broad fixed - income assets, but with the recent weakening of the real estate market, the capital inflow into broad fixed - income assets such as household deposits and insurance premiums is expected to increase again in the next few months [2][12] 3.2.2 Financing Demand - The decline in the social financing growth rate means that the growth rate of asset supply will slow down in the next few months. This year, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing rebounded from 8.0% at the end of last year to a maximum of 9.0% in the middle of this year, mainly driven by government bonds, with government bonds increasing by nearly 3 trillion yuan year - on - year. Assuming a fiscal deficit of 4%, a special Treasury bond of 2 trillion yuan, and new special bonds of 4.5 trillion yuan next year, government bonds will increase by about 500 billion yuan compared with this year, a significantly smaller increase than this year. If the non - government bond social financing increment remains the same as this year, the social financing growth rate may slow down again in the first half of next year [3][13] 3.3 Reasons for the Adjustment of Ultra - Long Bonds - Banks, especially large - scale banks, have taken on a large amount of long - term bonds, resulting in excessive pressure on some indicators such as △EVE. Recently, the slowdown in insurance premium income and the shift of asset allocation towards equities have led to insufficient allocation power from traditional ultra - long bond buyers such as insurance companies. After the positions of trading institutions became too concentrated, concentrated selling led to a rapid adjustment in ultra - long bonds [3][19] 3.4 Future Outlook for Ultra - Long Bonds - After rapid selling by trading institutions such as funds and securities firms, their positions have decreased significantly, reducing the room for further selling. As the yield of ultra - long bonds adjusts, their relative cost - effectiveness has changed. The spread between mortgage loans and 30 - year Treasury bonds is at the lowest level since the third quarter of 2017, and the spread between mortgage loans and 30 - year local government bonds is at the lowest level since relevant data became available, increasing the attractiveness of ultra - long bonds to allocation - oriented institutions. Therefore, the adjustment of ultra - long bonds may be nearing the end, but their stabilization still needs to be observed in terms of the selling power of trading institutions [4][19] 3.5 Outlook for the Bond Market Structure Next Year - The slope of the yield curve next year may be more determined by regulations. If regulations continue to impose the same constraints on interest - rate risk indicators as this year, large - scale banks may continue to sell ultra - long bonds in the market, leading to a steeper yield curve. If regulations are adjusted or the central bank broadens the maturity range of bond purchases, the steepness of the yield curve will improve. The adjustment of regulatory indicators and the timing of such adjustments are highly uncertain. It is expected that the pressure on the long end will ease from the end of this year to the beginning of next year, and the slope of the yield curve is expected to recover [4][21] 3.6 Short - Term Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The overall supply - demand pattern will continue to drive the bond market to strengthen, and the structural pressure is expected to ease in mid - to late December. In the short term, the pressure on ultra - long bonds caused by selling by large - scale banks and trading institutions such as funds and securities firms still exists. It is expected that as the pressure on large - scale banks' indicators eases and the cost - effectiveness of ultra - long bonds increases after adjustment, allocation - oriented institutions will gradually increase their allocations, and the pressure is expected to ease starting in mid - to late December. Therefore, it is recommended to conduct right - side trading and wait for the market to stabilize before making allocations [5][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - In December, the bond market adjusted. The 10 - year Treasury active bond yield decreased by 0.05bp to 1.8285% from last Friday. The stock and bond markets have been weak, not showing a complete "stock - bond seesaw" effect, especially for ultra - long bonds with a significant interest rate increase. Due to factors like the "anti - involution" policy and the fund fee rate new regulation draft, institutions may sell in advance to avoid fluctuations. In the context of the "asset shortage," it is recommended to gradually increase bond allocation when the 10 - year Treasury active bond yield reaches 1.85%, but shorten the duration [1][14]. - Overseas, the market is pricing in the Fed's interest rate cut. The Bank of Japan's possible interest rate hike on December 19 is a focus. The US EIA Cushing crude oil inventory decreased, the manufacturing PMI continued to contract, and the Fed is focused on interest rate cut expectations and the change of the chairman. The probability of a 25bp interest rate cut in December 2025 is 86.20%, and the probability of another cut in January 2026 has decreased [15][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week View - **Domestic Bond Market**: The 10 - year Treasury active bond yield decreased by 0.05bp to 1.8285% from last Friday. The yield fluctuated throughout the week due to various factors such as market expectations of the central bank's bond - buying volume, policy expectations, and news from the Financial Times [1][10]. - **Overseas Market**: The market is pricing in the Fed's interest rate cut. The Bank of Japan's possible interest rate hike on December 19 is a focus. The US EIA Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 457,000 barrels from the week of November 21 to November 28. The manufacturing PMI continued to contract, and the Fed is focused on interest rate cut expectations and the change of the chairman. The probability of a 25bp interest rate cut in December 2025 is 86.20%, and the probability of another cut in January 2026 has decreased [15][24]. 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Data Summary - **Liquidity Tracking**: In the open - market operations from December 1 to December 5, 2025, the net investment was - 84.8 billion yuan. The money market interest rates showed some changes, with some rates decreasing and others increasing slightly [30][31]. - **Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking**: Steel prices showed mixed changes, and LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices also fluctuated. The prices of commodities such as coal, oil, and vegetables also changed to varying degrees [49]. 3.3 Local Bond One - Week Review - **Primary Market Issuance Overview**: In the primary market, 56 local bonds were issued with a total amount of 108.717 billion yuan, including 58.277 billion yuan of refinancing bonds, 39.049 billion yuan of new special bonds, and 11.392 billion yuan of new general bonds. The net financing amount was 60.493 billion yuan, mainly invested in comprehensive, strategic development, and shantytown renovation projects [75]. - **Secondary Market Overview**: The stock of local bonds was 54.01 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 31.0134 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.57%. The top three provinces with the most active trading were Hubei, Guangdong, and Shandong. The top three active trading maturities were 30Y, 20Y, and 10Y. The local bond yields generally increased [91][93]. 3.4 Credit Bond Market One - Week Review - **Primary Market Issuance Overview**: A total of 291 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance of 232.914 billion yuan, a total repayment of 174.89 billion yuan, and a net financing of 58.024 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.825 billion yuan from last week. Among them, the net financing of urban investment bonds was - 14.491 billion yuan, and that of industrial bonds was 72.515 billion yuan [98][99]. - **Issuance Interest Rate**: The actual issuance interest rates of various bond types showed different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [109]. - **Secondary Market Transaction Overview**: The total turnover of credit bonds was 531.676 billion yuan. The trading volume of each bond type varied, with medium - term notes having the largest trading volume [110]. - **Yield to Maturity**: The yields to maturity of various bonds, including national development bonds, short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds, generally increased [110][111][112]. - **Credit Spread**: The credit spreads of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes showed a divergent trend, while the credit spreads of corporate bonds also showed a general divergent trend, and the credit spreads of urban investment bonds generally narrowed [114][119][122]. - **Rating Spread**: The rating spreads of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes showed a divergent trend, and the rating spreads of corporate bonds and urban investment bonds generally narrowed [125][127][129]. - **Trading Activity**: The top five most actively traded bonds of each type were listed, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds [133][134]. - **Subject Rating Change**: There were no bonds with rating or outlook upgrades or downgrades this week [135][136]

他认为，这些机会聚合起来，从长期视角回顾，很可能塑造出一轮"慢牛"行情，标志着A股市场迈入一 个崭新的发展阶段。 专题：财经中国2025年会 和讯网 12月7日，重阳投资董事长王庆表示，中国资本市场与实体经济表现并不同步，去年"9·24"成为一个至 关重要的拐点。未来行情将转向个股业绩驱动，A股可能进入"慢牛"新阶段。 王庆指出，房地产市场深度调整带来的普遍"资产荒"，是贯穿前后的共同背景。在"9·24"新政之前，市 场风险偏好极低，资金为寻找出路，纷纷涌入能提供稳定现金流的高股息资产，使其成为理财产品的替 代品，完成了第一轮价值股的重估。 "但'9·24'之后不一样了。"王庆强调，强有力的政策干预有效托底了经济、市场与信心，带动风险偏好 回升，市场重心随之转向，以科技板块为代表的成长股迎来了第二轮重估。至此，市场在拐点前后相继 经历了价值与成长两次结构性重估。 王庆得出判断，市场经过重估之后，从2026年起或将进入由个股基本面业绩驱动的阶段。在"资产荒"格 局下，充裕的资金将持续寻找配置方向，一旦特定行业或赛道形成业绩共识，资金便可能快速流入。 王庆指出，房地产市场深度调整带来的普遍"资产荒"，是贯穿前后的 ...