最近，中美两国都拉响了通缩警报。中国4月份的CPI指数是-0.1%，国内物价总体呈现"稳中有降"的趋势。而美国同期的CPI指数也突然跳水，从3%跌到 2.3%。美国二手车和房租的价格都下跌。就连硅谷等科技公司都开始暂停招聘。为此，有专家警告：中美两国都迎来了通缩周期，现在物价下降并不是暂 时，而只是刚刚开始。 可能很多人都觉得，通货紧缩对老百姓是好事情，大家手里的钱越来越值钱了。比如，超市猪肉价格从20多元，跌到10多元。各种品牌的汽车降价幅度都是 上万元。就连家电的降幅也都在10%以上。而事实上，通胀和通缩对经济来说，都不是好事情。 以通缩为例，所谓通缩就是物价持续下降，消费需求不断萎缩。这就会导致企业生产的商品卖不出去。于是，只能大幅降价销售。在这种情况下，企业会出 现效益下滑，被迫采取裁员降薪的策略。而员工在收入减少或失业之后，消费能力被严重削弱。如此就形成了恶性循环。 面对当前中美通缩警报的拉响，我们普通人现在最该做的5件事情，要比存钱更加重要。它们分别是：①把之前的债务全都还清；②留出足够的生活费；③ 提高自己的技能；④减少不必要的支出；⑤学习投资理财知识。让我们一起来了解一下： 第一，把之前的债务 ...

Group 1 - The core argument is that cash is becoming more valuable in a deflationary environment, as the purchasing power of money increases due to falling prices [3][5][11] - The broad money supply (M2) in China reached 326.06 trillion yuan, growing by 7% year-on-year, indicating a significant increase in money supply relative to GDP [1] - Bank deposit interest rates have decreased, with state-owned banks offering rates below 2% for three-year fixed deposits, leading to reduced income for savers [1] Group 2 - In a deflationary context, having cash allows individuals to navigate economic uncertainties, such as job loss or medical emergencies, without panic [7][11] - Cash holders can wait for new investment opportunities, especially as many investors face losses in stock and fund markets, making cash a safer option for the time being [9][11] - The potential for acquiring distressed assets, particularly in the real estate sector, is highlighted, with examples of wealthy individuals preparing to invest in undervalued properties as market conditions worsen [9][11] Group 3 - Cash can provide liquidity to struggling businesses, allowing them to survive during economic downturns, which is crucial for maintaining operations until the market stabilizes [11] - The sentiment among business owners is shifting, recognizing cash as essential for survival rather than a liability, especially in challenging economic times [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's committee member, Toyoaki Nakamura, stated that Japan is at a critical stage of completely overcoming deflation [1] Group 1 - The current economic environment in Japan indicates a significant shift towards ending deflationary pressures [1] - The remarks suggest a positive outlook for Japan's economy, highlighting the potential for sustained growth [1] - The statement reflects the central bank's ongoing efforts to stimulate inflation and support economic recovery [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of China's economy, highlighting the challenges in stimulating domestic demand and the impact of external factors such as tariffs and inflation in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - China's export decline and the unchanged inflation expectations in the U.S. indicate a persistent economic challenge for both countries [1] - Recent policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand, such as interest rate cuts, have been implemented, but their effectiveness is yet to be seen [1] Group 2: Domestic Demand Issues - The traditional methods of boosting domestic demand have proven ineffective, suggesting a need for new strategies [2] - The low proportion of disposable income relative to GDP raises concerns about consumer spending, as previous consumption was driven by real estate price bubbles [4] - The lack of long-term security and insufficient social welfare contribute to a culture of forced savings among the population, limiting consumption [13] Group 3: Structural Economic Challenges - The debate over whether to rely on market mechanisms or planned economy approaches for resource allocation is crucial, as current planning efforts may lead to inefficiencies [8] - The suggestion to cut ineffective infrastructure projects and redirect funds to social security systems raises concerns about potential short-term economic slowdown and increased unemployment [12] Group 4: Housing Market and Consumption - Stimulating the housing market is viewed as a significant way to boost consumption, as home purchases represent a major expenditure for consumers [9] - The financial burden of housing loans on new homeowners indicates a trend of high leverage in consumer spending [10] Group 5: Future Outlook - The need to cultivate a large middle class with high-income jobs is emphasized as essential for sustaining domestic demand [18] - The article questions whether the perceived stagnation in domestic demand is due to a misinterpretation of what constitutes consumption, particularly in light of significant government investment in infrastructure and housing [19]

分析师：4月CPI数据没有改变美联储今年只会在12月降息一次的预期 金十数据5月13日讯，分析师安娜·王和斯图尔特·保罗表示，4月份的CPI报告显示，受特朗普关税影响 最大的消费领域的通胀呈现加速态势。然而，旅游相关类别和其他娱乐服务的通缩压力抵消了商品价格 的部分涨幅。该报告表明，在评估特朗普关税政策对通胀的影响时，必须同步考量其对服务业的间接冲 击。鉴于服务业在CPI中有着相对较高的重要性，正如4月份的报告所显示的那样，服务业的通缩可能 会抵消商品价格的上涨。尽管如此，美联储可能不会从4月份的CPI报告中得到太多信号，因为他们的 预测表明，未来几个月通胀将会上升。我们维持我们的基准预期，即美联储今年只会降息一次，即在12 月的会议上降息25个基点。 ...

Group 1: Inflation and Consumption Dynamics - The likelihood of experiencing simultaneous goods inflation and service deflation is low, as historical data shows no such occurrence in the U.S. since 1947[3][4][26] - From 1993 to 2024, the share of actual consumption of goods in the U.S. is projected to rise from 27.5% to 34%, while the share of services is expected to decline from 72.5% to 66%[3][4] - Service prices exhibit greater rigidity compared to goods prices, making service deflation unlikely even during economic downturns[4][18][26] Group 2: Wholesale and Retail Profit Margins - The markup in the U.S. wholesale and retail sectors is high, with 14 out of 23 industries having markups greater than 30%[5][29] - However, the profit margins in these sectors are lower than those in other private industries, with operating surplus to total output at 25.2% compared to 25.4% for the private sector overall[5][29] - S&P 500 retail companies show lower average gross and net profit margins (38% and 8.2%, respectively) compared to the overall index averages (45.5% and 22.2%) [6][35] Group 3: Inventory and Import Dynamics - The inventory-to-sales ratio in the U.S. remains low, with most industries having a ratio of only 1-2 months[7][43] - In Q1 2025, the U.S. experienced a significant increase in imports, with an annualized rate of approximately $3.31 trillion, marking a 50.9% quarter-over-quarter increase[7][36] - The wholesale sector showed the most significant inventory replenishment, with an average quarter-over-quarter growth of 0.6%[7][36] Group 4: Corporate Responses to Tariffs - A majority of U.S. manufacturers (87%) indicated they would need to raise prices in response to tariff costs, with 76% of manufacturers and retailers choosing to pass on costs to consumers[10][48] - Adjustments in supply chains and pricing strategies are the primary responses to tariffs, with significant differences noted between U.S. and Chinese companies[10][53] Group 5: Historical Context of Tariffs - Current tariffs may lead to overall rates that are comparable to or exceed those of the early 1930s, but the economic context differs significantly from that period[11][57] - The 1930 tariff led to deflation rather than inflation, contrasting with the potential inflationary effects of current tariffs[11][57]

一、美国港口进口与预期同时回落。美国洛杉矶港口船舶停靠数量下滑至 16 艘，4 月均值为 21.3 艘，港口集装箱进 口吞吐量环比下滑-124%，已经连续两周大幅下滑，当周同比增速下滑至 32.1%，4 月末同比为 56%。 二、韩国前 10 日出口大幅下滑。韩国 5 月前 10 日出口同比增速从 13.4%大幅下滑至-23.8%，同比增速创新 2021 年 以来新低。 三、中国出口维持韧性。 风险提示 四、价格下行压力延续。按照模型估算，GDP 平减指数或下滑至-0.8%左右。5 月第一周，大宗商品价格进一步下滑， 焦煤、焦炭、螺纹钢、水泥价格分别下滑 5.7%、6%、2.4%、2.4%。按照目前的高频数据估算，5 月 PPI 同比增速或进 一步下行至-3.2%左右。 五、服务业带动 GDP 增速小幅企稳，5 月初按照高频数据估算，预计 GDP 同比增速回升至 5.1%。 美国国内需求持续走弱，带动全球需求下行，拖累中国出口增速 受全球需求和国内需求不足等因素影响，国内价格下行压力加大，通缩持续 在外需走弱时，关注行业需求变化，国内部分行业产能利用率或面临下行压力 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多 ...

Group 1 - The Geneva talks between China and the US have made substantial progress, with both sides agreeing to establish a trade negotiation mechanism, and a joint statement is expected to be released on Monday [2][8] - The US stock market showed mixed results, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices nearly flat as investors awaited clarity on US-China tariff negotiations [3] - The US Treasury yields remained stable, and trading volume decreased compared to usual levels, reflecting market uncertainty [3] Group 2 - The Trump administration has identified around 20 key trading partners for initial negotiations, including Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam, with Japan's Prime Minister aiming for a trade agreement before the July Senate elections [5] - The Federal Reserve officials have expressed concerns that tariffs could lead to rising inflation and unemployment, complicating monetary policy decisions [5] - The Chinese CPI data for April indicates that tariffs have caused deflation for the third consecutive month, prompting the People's Bank of China to focus on promoting reasonable price recovery in its monetary policy [8]

Economic Indicators - China's CPI for April shows a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, marking the third consecutive month of deflation[12] - The PPI for April decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, continuing a 31-month trend of factory deflation[12] - China's trade balance for April was $96.18 billion, with exports increasing by 8.1% and imports decreasing by 0.2% year-on-year[17] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.3% to 3342 points, while the Shenzhen Component dropped by 0.69%[1] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.4% to 22867.74 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index declining by 0.93%[1] - The total market turnover in Hong Kong decreased to 1616.286 billion HKD[1] Trade Negotiations - The US and China reported "substantial progress" in trade negotiations held in Geneva, with a joint statement expected to be released[12] - Both parties agreed to establish a trade consultation mechanism to address economic concerns[12] Corporate Developments - CATL plans to raise approximately 30.7179 billion HKD through an IPO, with 90% of the funds allocated for projects in Hungary[10] - China Overseas Land & Investment reported a 7.5% year-on-year decline in property sales for April, totaling approximately 201.64 billion RMB[14]

泰国央行行长：没有出现通缩迹象。 ...