美国CPI数据犹如一个关键的信号灯，其每一次发布都是黄金投资者瞩目的焦点。黄金价格像是对它做 出反应的船只，随着CPI数据的变动而波动起伏。现在，领峰环球(acetoptg.top/JfSTFg)将带您深入探索 美国CPI数据背后的奥秘，看它如何在现货黄金市场掀起波澜。 一、美国 CPI 数据与黄金价格的基本关系 (3)美元指数与金价的负相关性 ：通常情况下，CPI疲软会令美元承压，从而推升以美元计价的黄金；反 之亦然。2025年3月CPI低于预期后，美元指数短暂下跌0.4%，黄金则同步上行。 三、2025年美国CPI数据及黄金市场全景回顾 由下表可知，在2025年前几个月，美国CPI显示出通胀在年初反弹后逐步缓解的趋势，黄金价格也在数 据公布期间受到明显影响。不过，市场预测，美国贸易政策的不确定性可能在未来带来新的通胀压力。 | 目份 | CPI环比 | CPI同比 | 当日现货黄金收 | 典型日内波动幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 盘价 ($/oz) | 度(±%) | | 1月 | +0.5% | +3.0% | 2895.30 | +1.28% ...

Group 1 - The gold market is experiencing selling pressure due to reduced safe-haven demand, with June 2025 gold futures dropping by $73.8 to $3180.7 per ounce, a decline of 2.27% [1] - The positive signals from the US-China Geneva trade talks, including mutual tariff reductions, have led to a temporary improvement in trade relations, which has weakened gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] - Despite a nearly $400 drop from last month's record high, gold prices have still increased over 20% year-to-date, indicating potential for further technical corrections [1] Group 2 - The US dollar index rebounded, increasing by 0.03% and surpassing the 101 mark, adding further pressure on gold prices [1] - Market attention is focused on the upcoming April PPI data, which could influence expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and potentially support gold prices if the data remains weak [1] - The long-term support for gold prices remains intact, with the World Gold Council reporting a $11 billion inflow into global physical gold ETFs in April, marking five consecutive months of inflows [2] Group 3 - The decline in gold prices has also negatively impacted silver prices, with July silver futures falling by $0.70 to $32.39 per ounce, a decrease of 2.12% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in U.S. long-term Treasury yields has led to an increase in the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies, with the dollar index showing fluctuations throughout the trading day [1][2][3]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Yields and Dollar Index - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield increased by 6.5 basis points, closing at 4.538%, providing support for the dollar [3]. - The dollar index rose by 0.03%, closing at 101.037 [2]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson noted that while recent inflation data shows progress towards the 2% target, the outlook remains uncertain due to potential price increases from import tariffs [3]. - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated that April's mild consumer price inflation may not reflect the impact of rising import tariffs, indicating a need for more data to assess price and economic trends [3]. Group 3: Currency Movements and Trade Negotiations - Market rumors suggested that the U.S. is seeking a weaker dollar in trade negotiations, but this was denied by Bloomberg citing anonymous sources [4]. - The Japanese yen saw the largest gain against the dollar among G10 currencies, supported by potential discussions on exchange rates in trade talks and hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor [4]. - As of the end of the New York trading session, the euro was at 1.1178 USD, the pound at 1.3264 USD, and the dollar was at 146.72 JPY, among other currency values [4].

美元指数DXY短线走高近30点，现报101.05。 ...

操作策略： 1.黄金建议反弹3210-3200区域做空，止损在3218，短期看3185-3175，目标看3160-3150 现货黄金市场呈现震荡下行格局。尽管美元指数维持弱势运行，且市场对美联储货币政策转向的预期有所强化，但金价仍未能 延续周二的技术性反弹动能。日内市场缺乏重大经济数据指引，交易逻辑逐步转向特朗普近期关于关税政策的表态引发的避险 需求退潮，以及地缘政治局势的边际变化，例如俄乌冲突的外交谈判动向。以下从基本面与技术面维度，对黄金市场运行逻辑 进行深度剖析，并展望潜在趋势演变。 美国劳工部最新数据显示，4月消费者价格指数（CPI）环比增速录得0.2%，显著低于市场预测的0.3%。这份弱于预期的通胀报 告为黄金多头提供了关键支撑，市场对美联储9月启动降息周期进一步升温。翁老师提醒需警惕的是，尽管当前核心通胀压力呈 现缓和迹象，但未来数月关税政策调整的滞后效应可能通过进口成本传导推高输入性通胀，这一潜在风险正促使投资者将黄金 纳入资产组合以对抗通胀风险。本交易日市场焦点相对有限，但需持续关注美国国务卿卢比奥出席北约外长会议的表态，以及 美联储官员就货币政策路径的公开言论对市场预期的影响。 现货黄金市场 ...

Core Insights - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $32,817 billion at the end of April, increasing by $41 billion from March, marking a 1.27% rise and maintaining stability above $3.2 trillion for 17 consecutive months [1][6] Group 1: Reasons for Increase in Foreign Exchange Reserves - The decline in the US dollar index positively impacted China's foreign exchange reserves, as it led to an appreciation of other currencies relative to the dollar, increasing the value of non-dollar assets in the reserves [3] - Global financial asset prices exhibited mixed trends in April, affecting the asset allocation of China's foreign exchange reserves. The appreciation of some assets contributed to the increase, while declines in others had a counterbalancing effect [4] Group 2: Stability of China's Economy - China's economy is showing positive trends with strong resilience and vitality, providing a solid foundation for the stable growth of foreign exchange reserves. This stability enhances market confidence in RMB assets and attracts more foreign investment [5] - The continuous stability of foreign exchange reserves above $3.2 trillion reflects the effectiveness of China's macroeconomic policies and robust financial regulation, as well as its increasing position in the global economy [6] Group 3: Positive Implications of Stable Foreign Exchange Reserves - The stable growth of China's foreign exchange reserves not only indicates stable economic development but also contributes positively to global economic stability. It enhances market confidence in the RMB and increases China's influence in international financial markets [7] - The stability of foreign exchange reserves provides a strong safeguard for China to respond to global economic uncertainties, with a commitment to maintaining prudent macroeconomic policies and promoting high-quality economic development [7]

美元指数DXY日内跌幅达0.50%，现报100.47。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced fluctuations due to low U.S. inflation data and trade negotiations, with current prices around $3245 per ounce, following a rebound after a significant drop [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - On May 13, gold prices rose by 0.46% to close at $3249.90 per ounce, supported by low inflation data and buying interest after a previous decline [1]. - The U.S. CPI for April showed a year-on-year decrease, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, indicating a cooling inflation environment [2]. - Analysts suggest that the long-term bullish outlook for gold remains intact despite recent fluctuations, driven by macroeconomic factors such as persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions [1][2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The gold price rebound appears to be stalling, with a potential "double top" pattern emerging, which could lead to a decline towards $3000 per ounce or lower [4]. - To confirm the "double top" pattern, sellers need to break below the May 1 low of $3202 per ounce, with subsequent targets at $3100 and $2950 per ounce [5]. - Conversely, if gold prices rise above $3300 per ounce, the next resistance level would be $3350, followed by $3400 or higher [5]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Events - The financial market anticipates the Federal Reserve to resume easing policies in September, which would enhance the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [3]. - Upcoming economic data releases and speeches from Federal Reserve officials are expected to influence market sentiment and gold prices [6].

周二现货黄金市场有低位企稳迹象，周二晚间美国CPI数据弱于预期，使得美联储降息预期降温，美元指数从高位回落，黄金市场昨日最低至 3216.14美元/盎司，最高至3265.52美元/盎司，最终收盘于3249.98美元/盎司。 小时图目前处于低位震荡阶段，短线15分钟图处于震荡阶段，震荡区间3242.00-3258.00，操作上可在这个区间高抛低吸。 若后市市场下破3242.00点位则可介入空单，下方目标可看向3232.00-3222.00美元/盎司。 若后市市场上破3258.00点位则可介入多单，上方目标可看向3268.00-3278.00。（止损为5.00美元/盎司空间） 现货白银市场 小时图目前处于震荡，短线15分钟图周期处于震荡阶段，震荡区间32.510-32.990，操作上可在这个区间内高抛低吸。 若市场成功上破32.990美元/盎司的阻力位，则可果断跟进多单，上方目标价位有望触及33.300-33.700美元/盎司。（止损为0.200美元/盎司空 间） 对于后市热点，需要继续关注贸易谈判进展，同时要密切关注地缘政治的发展情况以及美联储未来货币政策的动向。 亚洲早盘策略： 现货黄金市场 若市场价格跌破3 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold is currently testing low levels and seeking upward breakout potential, with recent CPI data not altering its weak trend [1][3] - Gold has been in a low volatility state, with recent fluctuations showing limited upward movement, and the market is advised to observe the continuation of strength or weakness [3][5] - The dollar index has seen a significant drop due to poor CPI data, closing around 100.7, with expectations of further weakness potentially reaching 99.8 [5][6] Group 2 - Key technical levels for gold include maintaining higher lows and breaking the resistance at 3280, which is crucial for establishing bullish momentum [6][7] - Domestic gold futures have shown limited volatility, with the Shanghai gold contract closing around 770, and potential upward movement if it breaks 775 [7] - International silver has provided trading opportunities around the 32 low point, with expectations of reaching 33.5, while domestic silver has also shown profit potential around the 8200 level [8] Group 3 - The international crude oil market has shown a strong upward trend, currently peaking around 64, with expectations of further increases towards 66 [8] - Domestic fuel oil has seen significant profits from previous long positions, with the highest price reaching 2760, and traders are advised to adjust their profit-taking strategies [9]