美国芝加哥联邦储备银行行长奥斯坦·古尔斯比（Austan Goolsbee）9月23日表示，鉴于通胀水平仍高于 目标且呈上行轨迹，美联储在进一步降息方面应保持谨慎。"最终，如果我们能够驱散当前的滞胀阴 霾，利率可以以渐进的步伐下调相当幅度，"古尔斯比说。 ...

来源：滚动播报 美联储理事鲍曼：是时候采取果断行动降息了。 ...

每当你以为人工智能的上涨行情到顶时，它总能再加一档。昨天就是这样的日子……英伟达大涨近4%，创下历史新高，此前有报道称该公司将与OpenAI深 化合作，建设庞大的新数据中心和人工智能基础设施。据说其规模约为10吉瓦——大致相当于10座大型核反应堆的产能——可谓庞大。 在债券市场，美国2年期国债收益率回升至3.60%以上，尽管与特朗普关系密切的经济学家StephenMiran呼吁大幅降息。他认为中性利率远低于当前水平，并 表示会迅速降息150个基点来达到目标，还称这种举动不算"恐慌"，而75个基点的降息反而是恐慌。这种极端言论未能改变市场预期，收益率反而走高。这 表明如果降息幅度过大、过快，未必能有效压低长期借贷成本，因为低利率会推高通胀预期，从而限制未来进一步降息的空间。 另一方面，黄金在地缘紧张加剧的背景下再创新高，每盎司逼近2600美元。乌克兰和加沙局势持续升级，其中越来越多的发达国家承认巴勒斯坦国，这加剧 了以色列与美国的外交压力——法国是最新的加入者。在欧洲，临近俄罗斯边境的国家担心莫斯科通过频繁侵犯领空来测试北约的底线。令人意外的是，尽 管地缘政治风险升温，油市却相对平静。美国原油价格仍在62美元/ ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut in September, which was initially seen as a victory for Trump, but he remained unusually quiet about it [1][5] - Trump's strategy to influence the Federal Reserve by appointing his ally, Milan, to the board backfired as Milan was the only one to vote for a 50 basis point cut, while 11 others voted for the 25 basis point cut [2][4] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates was based on economic data rather than political pressure, indicating a unified stance against Trump's influence [5][4] Group 2 - Japan's central bank announced it would begin selling off its substantial holdings in ETFs, signaling a shift away from its previous aggressive monetary policy [7][9] - This move by Japan could lead to a decrease in demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, as Japanese capital may flow back to Japan, undermining the impact of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts [9][11] - The announcement from Japan created turmoil in the U.S. bond market, causing yields to rise and prompting speculation that the Federal Reserve may pause further rate cuts to assess Japan's intentions [11][13]

Core Viewpoint - The current interest rates are significantly above neutral levels, and there are indications that a rapid rate cut of 150 basis points may be considered, but market expectations remain unaffected as evidenced by the rising two-year Treasury yields [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Commentary - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman, closely associated with Trump, suggests a swift reduction in interest rates, yet the two-year Treasury yield has rebounded to over 3.60% [1] - Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, argues that such statements are unrealistic and fail to influence market expectations effectively [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The continued increase in two-year Treasury yields indicates that a lack of reasonable basis for the proposed rate cuts may not effectively lower long-term borrowing costs [1] - Ozkardeskaya emphasizes that the Federal Reserve cannot lower rates arbitrarily, likening it to distributing candy at a party [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly the technology sector, is experiencing a decline despite previous expectations of interest rate cuts, which may have already been priced in by the market [1] Market Performance - As of September 23, the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.97%, the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 2.20%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 1.17% [1] - The half-day trading volume was HKD 165.23 billion [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101) saw a decline of 1.83%, with key components like Bilibili-W and Hua Hong falling by 4.45% and 4.08% respectively [1] Interest Rate Outlook - The market had anticipated the recent interest rate cut, but the release of the dot plot indicates that officials expect two more rate cuts by 2025 [1] - The ongoing expectation of rate cuts is seen as a significant driver for the Hong Kong stock market and the tech sector [1] Impact on Technology Companies - Hong Kong tech companies rely heavily on overseas financing, and the interest rate cut will reduce the cost of USD-denominated debt, improving cash flow [1] - Companies are expected to increase R&D investments, enhancing long-term competitiveness, while reduced financial expenses may boost profit margins [1] - A weaker USD during the rate cut cycle will enhance the value of overseas revenues when converted to HKD/RMB, benefiting profit margins, especially in sectors like internet exports and hardware [1] Relevant ETFs - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101) covers the entire technology industry chain [1] - The Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330) focuses on leading internet companies [1]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is currently trading around 0.65 against the US dollar, with a slight decline of 0.10% from the previous close of 0.6595 [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is close to achieving its inflation target of 2%-3% and the economy is nearing full employment, according to Assistant Governor Hunt [1] - The RBA is expected to maintain the cash rate at 3.6% during its upcoming meeting on September 29-30, with economists predicting a rate cut in November and another early next year, bringing the terminal rate to 3.1% [1] Group 2 - If buying pressure returns, the AUD/USD may test the recent high of 0.6707, with a potential breakthrough pointing towards last year's high of 0.6942 [2] - Temporary support levels for the AUD/USD are identified at the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) of 0.6535 and the 100-day SMA of 0.6510; a drop below these levels could refocus attention on the August low of 0.6414 [2] - The relative strength index (RSI) is around 52, indicating weakened bullish momentum, while the average directional index (ADX) is around 20, suggesting a gradually strengthening overall trend [2]

Core Insights - Institutional funds are entering the market to buy at lower prices, leading to a strong breakout in spot gold, which has surpassed the resistance level of 3725 [1] - Following interest rate cuts, macroeconomic benefits have significantly increased, prompting investment banks to raise their gold and silver price targets [1] - With options expiration approaching, October gold is facing seasonal selling pressure, and initial signs of cooling demand in Asia are being observed [1] - The market is closely monitoring the impact of these factors on short-term trading and the medium-term outlook for gold, with macro trading guidelines expected to be released soon [1]

【改写版】 本周二，美联储迎来了一场载入史册的议息会议——这场被华尔街称为三十年来最火药味十足的决策会 议，从开场就弥漫着不同寻常的政治硝烟。 会议前夕，一场惊心动魄的人事变动为这场会议埋下伏笔。白宫首席经济学家斯蒂芬·米兰在参议院以 48:47的刀锋式票数险胜，火速完成宣誓就职程序，填补了前任理事库格勒8月突然离职留下的空缺。令 人玩味的是，库格勒的任期原本应持续至明年，其以赴乔治城大学任教为由的仓促离职引发诸多猜测 ——该校官网至今未见其授课信息，这个反常举动让金融圈议论纷纷。 米兰的任命堪称近年来最具党派色彩的美联储人事变动。共和党议员集体投下赞成票，而民主党方面几 乎全员反对，这种泾渭分明的投票格局实属罕见。与此同时，另一位身处漩涡的理事丽莎·库克在会议 前夕惊险保住职位，上诉法院驳回了白宫的解职动议，这场理事保卫战更凸显当前美联储面临的前所未 有的政治压力。 回望1951年确立央行独立性的《美联储-财政部协议》以来，即便在尼克松时代高达两位数的通胀危机 中，美联储也未曾遭遇如此赤裸裸的政治干预。如今连向来德高望重的主席鲍威尔都难逃政治攻讦，被 公开斥为愚蠢决策者，美联储引以为傲的独立性光环正在急速褪 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of major currency pairs against the US dollar, highlighting fluctuations in exchange rates and upcoming economic indicators that may influence market movements. Currency Analysis - **Australian Dollar (AUD/USD)**: The AUD/USD is attempting to break through the range of 0.6400 to 0.6600, with resistance at the 2025 high of 0.6679. A further breakthrough could target the peak of 0.6687 from November 2024, with a psychological level at 0.7000. The first support level is at the August low of 0.6414, just above the 200-day simple moving average of 0.6392 and the June low of 0.6372. Momentum indicators show bullish signals, with the RSI above 69 indicating potential for further upside, while the ADX around 19 suggests the trend is gaining momentum [4]. - **Euro (EUR/USD)**: The EUR/USD has broken through the resistance range of 1.1780-1.1790, which is seen as a key signal for bullish trading. The daily chart's oscillators continue to show positive momentum and are far from overbought territory, indicating that the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD is upward. Any subsequent pullbacks may be viewed as buying opportunities, with limited expected retracement [4]. - **British Pound (GBP/USD)**: The GBP/USD has fallen below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of its upward trend since the August low, around 1.3500, confirming a negative outlook for the pound against the dollar. The daily chart's oscillators have begun to show negative trends, suggesting that the minimum resistance path for prices remains downward. Prices may test the 50% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.3435-1.3430, and further selling could lead to a drop below the 1.3400 level, potentially reaching the monthly low of 1.3335-1.3330 [5]. Economic Indicators - Key economic data to be released includes the preliminary manufacturing PMI for France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK, as well as the US second-quarter current account and various PMI readings from the US. These indicators are crucial for assessing economic health and may impact currency valuations [7].