金十数据7月24日讯，据知情人士透露，欧洲央行内部主张再次降息的决策者正面临愈发艰难的阻力。 一些官员表示，9月维持利率不变正成为基本情景。消息人士指出，支持进一步宽松的官员需要为自己 的立场提供充足理由，而反对者则不再需要解释立场。欧洲央行周四宣布自一年多来首次暂停降息，等 待欧美贸易关系的更多明确信号。行长拉加德表示，目前通胀已回到2%目标，经济运行亦符合或略优 于预期，央行处于"观望模式"。在拉加德表态之后，市场明显下调了对9月降息的预期。当前交易员预 计9月降息概率约为25%，低于她发言前的40%。 知情人士：欧洲央行内部鸽派面临阻力 9月基本预期是继续按兵不动 ...

Group 1 - The latest PMI data indicates that the Bank of England faces dual pressures from a weak labor market and rising prices [1][2] - The UK composite PMI fell from 52.0 in June to 51.0 in July, showing only slight growth in business activity [1] - Employment numbers decreased at the fastest rate in five months, with the employment index dropping to 45.1, the lowest since February [1] Group 2 - Concerns over weak demand are affecting hiring decisions, with input price inflation in business activities rising as suppliers attempt to offset tax increases and rising wage costs [2] - The Bank of England is in a dilemma regarding whether to prioritize inflation or employment, leading to potential divisions in the upcoming August meeting [2] - Market expectations lean towards a rate cut announcement in the August 7 meeting, despite June's inflation rate rising to 3.6%, above the 2% target [2] Group 3 - Economic forecasts suggest that the UK economy will maintain slow and steady growth this year and next, with expectations of two more rate cuts in August and November [3] - The anticipated economic growth rate for the UK this year is 1.1%, consistent with previous forecasts, and expected to rise slightly to 1.2% by 2026 [3] - Inflation is projected to remain above the 2% target until the end of 2026, with average inflation rates of 3.2% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026 [3]

当地时间周四，欧洲央行宣布维持三大利率不变，符合预期。 决议公布后，市场反应整体平稳。欧元兑美元短线小幅上扬后回落，欧洲主要股指轻微波动。 目前，欧洲STOXX50指数微涨0.12%，德国DAX30指数上涨0.06%；英国富时100指数上涨0.92%；法国CAC40 指数微跌0.63%。 连续七次降息后，欧洲央行在特朗普关税威慑下"踩刹车"。 | 英国富时100 | 法国CAC40 | 德国DAX | | --- | --- | --- | | 9145.30 | 7801.32 | 24256.17 | | +83.81 +0.92% | -49.11 -0.63% | +15.35 +0.06% | | 意大利MIB | 俄罗斯MOEX | 欧洲STOXX50 | | 40523.58 | 2812.56 | 5350.53 | | -173.91 -0.43% | -28.60 -1.01% | +6.28 +0.12% [CTSTS ] | 欧央行"踩刹车" 利率决议显示，欧洲央行维持主要再融资利率在2.15%不变，维持存款机制利率在2%不变，边际贷款利率2.4% 不变，均符合市场预期。 这是去年开启 ...

金十数据7月24日讯，据路透对经济学家的最新调查，英国经济今年和明年预计将保持缓慢且稳定的增 长步伐，英国央行8月和11月可能再次降息。对67位经济学家于7月17日至24日进行的调查中位预测，英 国今年和2024年的经济增速均为1.1%，几乎与2月的预测一致，2026年预计增速将略升至1.2%。德银英 国首席经济学家Sanjay Raja表示："一些明确迹象显示，经济在增长动能稍有回落后正在趋于稳定。商 业信心有所回升，消费者信心也在缓慢但持续改善。"受访的75位经济学家中83%（62人）预计今年还 将有两次25个基点的降息，分别在8月和11月，2026年还将进一步降息两次。通胀预计在2026年底前仍 将高于2%的目标，2025年平均通胀为3.2%，2026年为2.4%。 路透调查：经济增长温和 英央行料将继续降息 ...

金十数据7月24日讯，今晚20:15欧洲央行将公布利率决议，20:45行长拉加德将召开新闻发布会。特朗 普关税阴影笼罩下，预计欧央行将在一年多来首次按兵不动。委员会内部对降息前景分歧加剧，今晚会 否释放更明确信号？敬请留意行情波动，点击查看更多…… 相关链接 今晚20:15，欧洲央行将按下降息"暂停键"？ ...

Group 1: Market Reactions - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 1%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index reached a historic high, driven by Nvidia's stock surge [1][2] - Nvidia's stock price increased by 4% after the U.S. government allowed the export of H20 AI accelerators to China, pushing its market capitalization above $4.1 trillion [2][4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year, marking a four-month high, with core CPI increasing by 2.9%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target [6][8] - The impact of tariffs is evident, with clothing prices up by 0.4%, furniture prices rising by 1%, and household appliances increasing by 1.9% [6] Group 3: Federal Reserve Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions, with some officials advocating for an immediate rate cut, while others express concerns over inflation [8][10] - The probability of a rate cut in July is only 2.6%, while the likelihood for September has risen to 51.7% [12]

金十数据7月24日讯，高盛集团指出，南非温和的通胀水平为央行在今年剩余三次政策会议上连续降息 创造了条件。周三数据显示，6月年化通胀率从5月的2.8%微升至3%，低于经济学家预测的3.1%。高盛 预计，若通胀目标维持不变，到年底前南非央行可能累计降息75个基点至6.5%。 高盛：南非2025年或迎三次降息空间 ...

特朗普发帖称，由于鲍威尔拒绝降低利率，住房市场出现了滞后。家庭因为利率太高而受到伤害，甚至我们国 家本身也因此不得不支付比应有水平更高的利率。我们的利率本应比现在低三个百分点，这样一来，每年就能 为整个国家节省1万亿美元。鲍威尔这个固执的家伙就是不明白，从来没有，也永远不会明白。理事会应该采 取行动，但他们没有勇气这么做！ 行情回顾： 国际黄金周三（7月23日）冲回落大幅收跌，开盘价3426.49美元/盎司，最高价3438.88美元/盎司，最低价 3398.11美元/盎司，收盘价3398.16美元/盎司。 消息面： 美国6月成屋销售总数年化录得393万户，低于市场预期400万户，前值为403万户。 美国房产经纪协会NAR首席经济学家Lawrence Yun表示，"抵押贷款利率高企导致房屋销售仍停留在周期性低 点。如果平均抵押贷款利率下降到6%，我们的情景分析表明，将有额外的16万租房者成为首次购房者，现有 房主的销售活动也会增加。" 美国财长贝森特：今年可能会出现1到2次降息。几乎每周都与美联储主席鲍威尔共进早餐。在美联储主席提名 问题上，我们不急于求成。特朗普已经说了，他不会解雇鲍威尔。 贸易局势： 据了解 ...

智通财经7月24日电，新西兰央行首席经济学家康韦表示，如果通胀持续温和，预计将有进一步降息空 间。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chief Economist of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand indicated that there is room for further interest rate cuts if inflation continues to ease [1] Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is closely monitoring inflation trends and is prepared to adjust monetary policy accordingly [1] - A continued decline in inflation could lead to a more accommodative monetary policy stance [1] - The central bank's focus remains on achieving its inflation targets while supporting economic growth [1]