【短评-黄金】美联储理事库格勒表示，特朗普政府的关税 政策可能会推高通胀，拖累经济增长，即使在降低关税后。贸 易局势变化令美联储难以预测未来的经济增长和通胀走势。她 认为美国的就业状况"基本稳定"，并表示通胀回落进展自去 年夏天以来已经放缓。评：美国官员对未来降息依然保持很谨 慎的态度，降息或比市场预期的更加推迟。中美经贸谈判取得 一定进展，但是落实或仍需要时日。美元指数反弹，利空黄 金。黄金下方空间和上方空间均有限，黄金中期高位震荡略偏 空思路为宜。 投资咨询中心 2025年05月13日 今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-螺纹钢】5月12日，国内钢材市场多数上涨，唐山 迁安普方坯出厂含税累计上调60报2970元/吨。国内2家钢厂上 调建筑钢材出厂价20-40元/吨，2家钢厂下调20-40元/吨。全国 31个主要城市20mm三级抗震螺纹钢均价3317元/吨，较上个交易 日上涨15元/吨。评：受中美关税利好消息提振，资本市场风险 偏好提升，黑色期货走强，钢市投机性需求有所回暖，短期钢 价或趋强运行，注意冲高回落风险。 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F02 ...

周一因中美达成削减关税协议，市场对美国经济衰退的担忧缓解，美元指数一度逼近 102，最终收涨 1.37%至 101.80。美债收益率双双走高，利 率市场削减美联储年内降息定价，提振美元需求。不过美元短线虽偏多，但面临关键阻力，且美国 CPI 数据将至，若通胀低于预期，多头或将 了结。当前美联储降息预期调降，鹰派空间有限，通胀火热还可能加剧滞胀担忧，利空美元。 黄金昨日跳空低开并延续跌势，最低触及3207后企稳反弹，美盘最高涨至3248后震荡整理，午夜弱势整理至 3220 后修复，最终收盘于 3234。 今日早间行情先小幅拉升，随后强势下跌至 3216，亚盘又强势上涨至 3260 后承压整理。目前行情处于修复阶段，晚间 CPI 数据备受关注。若 欧盘行情未延续上涨而是回落，多头或于 3270终结。技术面上方阻力在 3268 - 3274，下方支撑在 3244 - 3237。操作上徐老师建议回调做多为 主，反弹高空为辅。 操作策略1：建议回调3244-3237分批多，各止损8美金，止盈看15-20美金。 操作策略2：建议反弹3268-3274分批空，各止损8美金，止盈看20-40美金。 面对市场，实际上就是面对自 ...

美元指数12日大幅上涨 金十数据5月13日讯，衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天上涨1.45%，在汇市尾市收于101.788。 截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1089美元，低于前一交易日的1.1259美元；1英镑兑换1.3180美元，低 于前一交易日的1.3315美元。1美元兑换148.34日元，高于前一交易日的145.27日元；1美元兑换0.8457瑞 士法郎，高于前一交易日的0.8311瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3994加元，高于前一交易日的1.3930加元；1 美元兑换9.8166瑞典克朗，高于前一交易日的9.7062瑞典克朗。 ...

【深圳商报讯】（记者钟国斌）5月12日，离岸人民币兑美元汇率大幅拉升，盘中涨幅一度超过400点。 截至当日15时30分许，离岸人民币兑美元汇率报7.2049，上涨357点，涨幅为0.49%。 事实上，5月以来，离岸人民币兑美元汇率升势明显。5月2日，离岸人民币兑美元汇率大涨0.91%；5月 5日，离岸人民币兑美元汇率一度突破7.18关口，创下年内新高。 关于人民币走强的原因，投资分析师林大辉认为，美元指数阶段性走弱是推动力之一。美国商务部公布 的数据显示，近期美国经济表现疲软，尤其是4月非农就业数据不及预期，美元指数4月份一度失守100 点大关。 同时，中国政策层面释放的积极信号也是驱动力。"一行一局一会"5月7日公布"一揽子金融政策支持稳 市场稳预期"的改革举措，从货币政策持续加码、金融制度精准指向重点领域、推动中长期资金入市等 方面稳定市场，市场对后续稳增长政策的预期增强。 业内认为，离岸人民币的走势将受到多种因素的影响。就外部环境而言，地缘政治冲突、贸易摩擦等因 素或将继续扰动市场，人民币面临一定贬值压力；美元走势亦是关键因素，如果美元大幅反弹，离岸人 民币也会承压。 从宏观经济层面来看，全球经济若能保 ...

美元指数创下4月10日以来新高，最新上涨0.9%。 ...

黄金技术面分析： 黄金消息面解析 1、中东局势持续紧张，伊朗核谈判推迟，美伊关系紧张。同时，美国总统特朗普再度释放对华关税威胁，称"对中国商品征收80%关税似乎是正确的"，这 些因素叠加导致市场避险情绪急剧升温，大量资金涌入黄金市场，推动黄金价格上涨。 2、美元指数短期出现回落，由于黄金是以美元计价，美元的走弱极大地缓解了黄金的价格压力，使得国际金价传导至国内市场的折价逐渐收窄，进一步助 推了国内黄金价格的上涨。 3、在5月8日美联储宣布将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.50%不变，连续第三次会议保持按兵不动。鲍威尔强调美联储并不急于行动，全体委员都支持耐心观望。 市场对美联储未来政策的不确定性仍然较高，这也在一定程度上影响了黄金市场。 白银技术面分析： 周五开盘32.448，日内震荡上行，没有比较好的趋势机会，报收32.717的小阳线。从20均线上看，收盘价回到均线上方，方向暂时偏多。 小时级价格从底部震荡区间反弹回来，价格还在大的震荡区间内部，没有较好的趋势机会，当前价格在均线上方，方向偏多。15分钟级别向上两笔，力度都 不强，在前面整数关口33.000有一定的压力，操作上可以考虑高抛低吸。 今日操作建议： ...

美元指数DXY突破101，日内涨0.57%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan exchange rate indices showed an overall increase in the week of May 9, with the CFETS index at 96.53, the BIS index at 102.16, and the SDR index at 91.11, indicating a strengthening of the yuan against a backdrop of fluctuating global currencies [1][2]. Exchange Rate Indices - CFETS RMB exchange rate index reported at 96.53, up 0.33% week-on-week [1][2] - BIS currency basket RMB exchange rate index reported at 102.16, up 0.07% week-on-week [1][2] - SDR currency basket RMB exchange rate index reported at 91.11, up 0.67% week-on-week [1][2] External Factors - The US dollar index increased by 0.38% to 100.4218, marking its first recovery above the 100 level since early April [6] - Despite the dollar's strength, external pressures on the yuan were limited due to easing tariff expectations and a general appreciation of Asian currencies [6] - The expectation of a weaker dollar has led to increased foreign exchange hedging demand in some Asian countries, providing support for the yuan [6] Internal Factors - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio effective May 15, which may exert some pressure on the yuan [7] - The yuan's central parity maintained above 7.20 against the dollar, with adjustments being less than market expectations, indicating a moderate weakening trend against a basket of currencies [7] Economic Insights - Experts suggest that maintaining stability in the yuan's exchange rate against the dollar is crucial for managing cross-border capital flows and supporting exports [8] - The divergence in economic cycles and monetary policies between China and the US may provide a foundation for the yuan's dual-directional fluctuations [8] Domestic Economic Measures - The People's Bank of China introduced measures to lower the reserve requirement ratio and support financial institutions in key sectors such as service consumption and elderly care, with a total loan quota of 500 billion yuan at a 1.5% interest rate [11] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission released a plan to promote high-quality development in public funds, including measures to reduce investor costs and enhance fund performance evaluation [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the gold market has been influenced by trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts, leading to a weekly increase of approximately 3.1% in gold prices, although profit-taking has limited further gains [1] - The decline in the US dollar index by 0.3% and ongoing concerns from Federal Reserve officials regarding inflation and economic growth have contributed to the upward pressure on gold prices [1] - Analysts suggest that in the short term, gold prices may enter a consolidation phase due to potential strengthening of the US dollar and a cooling expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis shows that the Bollinger Bands have narrowed after an initial price surge, indicating a lack of market momentum [3] - The MACD indicator shows a decrease in upward momentum, with the histogram turning green, suggesting a weakening bullish trend [3] - The RSI has dropped to 55.86, indicating a shift towards a more cautious market sentiment [3] Group 3 - The suggested trading strategy includes shorting gold in the 3270-3275 range, with a stop loss at 3282 and a target of 3255-3245 [4] - The overall market sentiment remains bearish in the short term, with expectations of gold prices facing resistance in the 3250-3355 range unless significant positive news emerges [3][4]

Group 1 - The US dollar index fell by 0.3% to close at 100.338, indicating a decline against a basket of currencies, except for the Canadian dollar [1] - Analysts suggest that the worst phase of the trade and tariff war may be over, as the Trump administration appears to be reaching out to different countries [1] - The Canadian unemployment rate increased from 6.7% in March to 6.9% in April, which was higher than the market expectation of 6.8%, contributing to the decline of the Canadian dollar [1] Group 2 - The euro appreciated to 1.1259 USD from the previous day's 1.1225 USD, while the British pound rose to 1.3315 USD from 1.3251 USD [2] - The US dollar exchanged at 145.27 JPY, down from 145.88 JPY, and at 0.8311 CHF, slightly down from 0.8312 CHF [2] - The US dollar strengthened against the Canadian dollar, trading at 1.3930 CAD, up from 1.3928 CAD [2]