Core Insights - The launch of platinum and palladium futures on the domestic market is seen as a significant addition to the new energy metal futures sector, with the first contracts being reasonably priced compared to market expectations [2][4]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The first contracts for platinum and palladium futures were priced slightly above market expectations but aligned with the domestic price structure [2]. - The macroeconomic environment is supportive due to the Federal Reserve's dovish signals, with an 80% probability of a rate cut in December, which may bolster market sentiment [2]. - Geopolitical developments, such as progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, could reduce risk appetite and exert downward pressure on prices [2]. Group 2: Price Expectations - Initial price ranges for platinum futures are expected to be between 385 to 425 CNY per gram, while palladium futures are anticipated to range from 345 to 385 CNY per gram on their first trading day [2]. - Analysts predict that the futures for platinum and palladium may exhibit a contango structure, influenced primarily by market liquidity levels [4]. - The initial trading price range for PT2606 is projected to be 390 to 420 CNY per gram, and for PD2606, it is expected to be 340 to 370 CNY per gram [4]. Group 3: Market Performance - On the opening day of trading, domestic main contracts showed mixed performance, with platinum rising nearly 9% and other commodities like silver and glass also seeing gains [3]. - Conversely, some contracts, including lithium carbonate and paper pulp, experienced declines of nearly 1% [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that in the short - to - medium term, multiple factors are at play in the precious metals market. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and a weaker US dollar drive up the prices of gold and silver, but the cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the easing of international trade situation limit the upward momentum of gold prices. The London gold price is expected to fluctuate within the range of $3,880 - $4,380 per ounce for a longer period. In the medium - to - long term, factors such as central bank easing, geopolitical risks, and the restructuring of the international trade and currency system support the upward trend of precious metal prices. The intermediate bull market of precious metals that started in March 2024 is not over. In the next six months and one year, the price of London gold may rise to $4,500 and $4,800 per ounce respectively, and the price of London silver may rise to $58 and $63 per ounce respectively [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Analysis - **Intraday Market**: The support of New York Fed officials for a near - term interest rate cut by the Fed, weak US consumer spending and confidence data, and a rise in the Fed's interest rate cut expectation to over 80% along with a decline in the US dollar index below 100 have pushed up the prices of gold and silver. However, the cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the easing of international trade situation have curbed the upward momentum of gold prices. It is not advisable to over - pursue long or short positions at present [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: The US employment and inflation situation support the Fed to restart the interest rate cut process, and the interest rate cut may be larger than needed. The election of Kōmeitō's candidate for the Japanese prime minister and the global trade and currency system restructuring and geopolitical risks continue to provide demand for gold. The intermediate bull market of precious metals since March 2024 is not over. After the significant correction of gold and silver prices since late October, investors should watch for opportunities to go long again [5]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 947.69 with a 0.02% increase, the Shanghai Silver Index at 12,222 with a 0.81% increase, the Gold T + D at 941.20 with a 0.05% increase, and the Silver T + D at 12,205 with a 0.60% increase [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report presents multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices to Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - to - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, all sourced from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [7][9][11]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - **Geopolitical Events**: Ukrainian President Zelensky is ready to advance a US - supported framework agreement to end the war with Russia, and Trump has instructed envoys to meet with relevant parties. There are only a few points of disagreement left in the negotiation [17]. - **US Fed News**: US Treasury Secretary Bessent is conducting the second - round interview for the new Fed chairman, and Trump may announce the candidate before Christmas. Bloomberg reported that White House economic advisor Hassett is the favorite, but the White House refuted this [17]. - **Economic Data**: US retail sales in September increased by only 0.2% after a 0.6% increase in August, lower than expected. The producer price index for final demand rebounded 0.3% in September, mainly driven by a 3.5% increase in energy costs and a 1.1% increase in food prices. The consumer confidence index in November dropped to a seven - month low [18].

Group 1 - The US stock market continued its strong performance ahead of Thanksgiving, with all three major indices rising: the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.67% to 47,427.12 points, the S&P 500 rose by 0.69% to 6,812.61 points, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 0.82% to 23,214.69 points [1] - Technology stocks were the main drivers of the market's rise, with Tesla and Microsoft both up by 1.7%, Nvidia increasing by 1.3%, and Apple slightly rising by 0.2%. However, Amazon, Meta, and Google saw declines of 0.2%, 0.45%, and 1.0% respectively [1] - Dell Technologies performed exceptionally well, surging by 5.8% due to strong demand for AI data center servers, while Oracle also had a notable increase of 4.0% [1] Group 2 - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has become a significant factor driving the stock market upward, with traders estimating an 84.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut next month, nearly doubling from the previous week [2] - The airline sector saw a substantial rise ahead of the holiday season, with the S&P 1500 Airline Index soaring by 3.4%, reflecting investor optimism regarding travel demand during Thanksgiving [2] - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index slightly down by 0.03%. Pinduoduo rose by 1.6%, JD.com by 1.0%, and Alibaba by 0.4%, while Baidu and NetEase fell by 1.3% and 1.7% respectively [2]

Group 1 - Southbound funds have significantly increased their investment in Hong Kong stocks, with a cumulative net purchase of 1.38 trillion HKD this year, marking a record high [1] - The Hang Seng Index has seen an annual increase of nearly 30%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index has risen over 25% this year, indicating a recovery in asset valuations driven by southbound capital [1] - The attractiveness of Hong Kong stock market valuations is becoming evident, as reflected in the positive flow of ETF funds, which have accelerated net purchases of Hong Kong assets despite market fluctuations in the second half of the year [1] Group 2 - The recent rise in Hong Kong stocks is attributed to expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with several technology companies' stock prices boosting market risk appetite [1] - Lower U.S. interest rates are expected to drive capital outflows from the U.S., seeking investment opportunities in non-dollar assets, which typically increases demand for Asian stocks [1] - However, there are concerns regarding the lack of significant improvement in corporate earnings for Hong Kong stocks, alongside volatility in U.S. tech stocks and the potential for profit-taking as the year-end approaches [4]

Group 1 - International precious metal futures saw a general increase, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.45% to $4,196.10 per ounce and COMEX silver futures increasing by 4.13% to $53.76 per ounce [1] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that U.S. economic activity remains largely unchanged, with a decline in consumer spending; however, initial jobless claims were lower than expected and durable goods orders improved, leading to an 85% market expectation for a rate cut in December [1] - A survey by OMFIF reveals that while the U.S. dollar will maintain its dominant position in central bank foreign exchange reserves, over half of the central banks intend to diversify their asset allocation in the next 1-2 years, highlighting the growing importance of gold as a reserve asset [1] Group 2 - The survey included banks from Europe, Asia, Africa, and Central and South America, indicating that while the dollar is expected to account for over 50% of global reserve assets in the next decade, 58% of central bank officials plan to diversify their reserve assets due to concerns over international political divisions and U.S. fiscal stability [4]

Group 1: Report Core Views - US economic slowdown pressure increases, Fed's December rate - cut expectation surges, precious metals are oscillating with an upward bias; gold is short - term oscillating with an upward bias and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1] - L2601 contract of plastics is expected to run weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure at the 6770 line [1] - Iron ore is expected to run within an oscillating range as supply is strong and demand is stable during the macro vacuum period [3] - The downward persistence of coking coal futures is to be observed due to potential year - end production decline and the upcoming Politburo meeting [4] - Steel prices may oscillate in the short term, and the upside space may be limited by weak off - season demand [4] - LH2601 contract of live pigs still has downward pressure and will remain weak after adjustment [5] - Palm oil prices are supported by future fundamentals, but the main contract is facing roll - over, so it is recommended to wait and see [5] - The 01 contract of soybean meal will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [7] - The bond market has entered an oscillating range again, and the operation difficulty has increased [7] - Silver is oscillating with an upward bias in the medium term [7] - Crude oil should be treated with an oscillating and weakening view [8] - The 01 contract of methanol is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the lower support at the 2100 line [8] - The 01 contract of soda ash is expected to run weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure at the 1190 line [9][10] Group 2: Industry Data Plastics - North China LLDPE mainstream price is 6919 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from the previous day; LLDPE weekly output is 30.46 tons, down 1.19% week - on - week; production enterprise inventory is 16.61 tons, down 15.98% week - on - week; oil - based daily production profit is - 335 yuan/ton; the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products has increased by 0.2% week - on - week [1] Iron Ore - From November 17th to 23rd, the global iron ore shipping volume is 3278.4 tons, a decrease of 238.0 tons compared with the previous period; the shipping volume from Australia and Brazil is 2637.4 tons, a decrease of 271.3 tons; Australia's shipping volume is 1839.6 tons, a decrease of 210.9 tons, and the volume shipped to China is 1553.6 tons, a decrease of 319.4 tons [3] Coking Coal - This week, the daily output of raw coal from 523 coking coal sample mines is 191.3 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons compared with the previous period; the daily output of raw coal in Shanxi is 110.2 tons, a decrease of 2 tons; 11 new coal mines have stopped production, involving a production capacity of 11.35 million tons; 1 new coal mine has resumed production, involving a production capacity of 1.75 million tons [4] Steel - On November 24th, domestic steel market prices mainly rose slightly; the ex - factory price of Tangshan Qian'an common billet resources increased by 30 to 2980 yuan/ton; 2 steel mills raised the ex - factory price of construction steel by 30 yuan/ton, and 2 steel mills lowered the ex - factory price by 20 - 30 yuan/ton; the average price of 20mm third - grade seismic - resistant rebar in 31 major cities across the country is 3283 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [4] Live Pigs - On November 26th, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market is 17.87 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.8% compared with the previous day; the price of eggs is 7.27 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.1% compared with the previous day [5] Palm Oil - From November 1st to 25th, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil increased by 3.34% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.41% month - on - month, and the output increased by 5.49% month - on - month [5] Soybean Meal - As of November 26th, the domestic soybean meal spot market price has increased steadily; the price in Tianjin market is 3060 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price in Shandong market is 3000 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price in Jiangsu market is 2980 yuan/ton, remaining stable; the price in Guangdong market is 2970 yuan/ton, remaining stable; the national soybean meal inventory has reached 1.1515 million tons [6][7] Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - end varieties mostly declined; the overnight variety remained flat at 1.316%; the 7 - day variety increased by 2.0BP to 1.453%; the 14 - day variety decreased by 3.3BP to 1.507%; the 1 - month variety decreased by 0.1BP to 1.519% [7] Crude Oil - News shows that there are still differences among parties regarding the "peace plan" for Ukraine, and all parties need time to weigh their interests [8] Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2088 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton; the domestic methanol weekly capacity utilization rate is 88.75%, an increase of 1.8%; the downstream total capacity utilization rate is 74.77%, an increase of 0.42% week - on - week; the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples is 1.3635 million tons, a decrease of 115,800 tons week - on - week; the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 373,700 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons week - on - week; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises are 230,700 tons, a decrease of 15,600 tons week - on - week [8] Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1261 yuan/ton, and the price has been relatively stable recently; the weekly output of soda ash is 739,200 tons, a decrease of 1.02% compared with the previous period; the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.7073 million tons, a decrease of 0.4% week - on - week; the operating rate of float glass is 75%, a decrease of 0.92 percentage points week - on - week; the average price of national float glass is 1091 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous day; the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 63.247 million weight cases, a decrease of 0.18% compared with the previous period [9]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced fluctuations on Wednesday, with strong performance in sectors such as communication equipment, electronic components, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors, while shipbuilding, aerospace, gaming, and decoration sectors lagged behind [1] - The market volatility increased due to the mixed expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and year-end profit-taking by institutional investors, but the long-term support for the current A-share rally remains intact [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to consolidate around the 4000-point level, with a continued rebalancing of market styles, where cyclical and technology sectors are likely to alternate in performance [1] Group 2 - The A-share market showed mixed performance on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding support at 3816.575 points, but facing short-term pressure from the 5-day moving average [1] - The tightening of overseas liquidity expectations and geopolitical risks are likely to continue to suppress market risk appetite, leading to increased selling pressure as the market approaches resistance levels [2] - A new bullish window for the A-share market is anticipated around mid-December, coinciding with institutional investors repositioning for the next year and the expected Federal Reserve interest rate cut [2]

（来源：福能期货） 来源：福能期货 重要提示：本报告观点和信息仅供符合证监会适当性管理规定的期货交易者参考，在任何情况下不作为您的投资依据，据此入市，风 险自担。因本平台暂时无法设置访问限制，若您并非符合规定的交易者，为控制交易风险，请勿点击查看或使用本报告任何信息。对 由此给您造成的不便表示诚挚歉意，感谢您的理解与配合！ 01 重点关注 黄金 受市场对美联储将在下月降息的预期提振，周四亚市早盘，现货黄金交投于4167.57美元/盎司附近，金价周三延续涨势，攀升至逾一 周高位。美国9月零售销售月率录得0.2%，不及预期；9月PPI月率录得0.3%，与预期一致。美联储褐皮书显示，近几周经济活动基本 不变，消费者两极分化加剧。美国至11月22日当周初请失业金人数录得21.6万人，低于预期的22.5万人和上修后的前值22.2万人，为 2025年4月12日当周以来新低。尽管上周美国初请失业金人数有所下降，但劳动力市场在持续的经济不确定性下仍面临挑战。同时， 近期美联储三把手威廉姆斯、理事沃勒及戴利相继发表鸽派发言，提振市场对于美联储12月降息预期，美联储12月降息预期骤然升 温。地缘方面，俄罗斯方面表示已收到美方关于 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December continues to strengthen, which is likely to support gold prices and lead to a bullish trend [1][5]. Market Performance - On November 26, gold opened at $4132.01 per ounce, reached a low of $4129.67, and fluctuated above $4145, closing at $4163.77, with a daily increase of $31.76 or 0.77% [3][10]. - The market experienced volatility due to geopolitical news and economic data, but the overall sentiment remains bullish for gold [5][8]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a new low since April, but the Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated weak labor demand and declining consumer spending, reinforcing the likelihood of a rate cut [5]. - The economic outlook suggests that the market anticipates a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, which could further boost gold prices [5][6]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices have shown resilience, maintaining support above the 10-week moving average, with expectations for further upward movement towards $4300 or $4400 [8][10]. - The short-term outlook remains bullish, with key support levels identified at $4155 and $4130, and resistance levels at $4190 and $4220 [10]. Future Projections - The potential for gold to reach $5000 per ounce remains a target for the upcoming year, driven by the low interest rate environment and economic uncertainties [6].

昨日11月26日（星期三），黄金早盘开盘强势上涨，中午涨至4169/4170附近受阻回落，午后下探4147再次企稳上涨，到美盘前最高上涨至4173/4174区域受 阻回落，美盘最低下跌至4136附近，随后又快速上涨起来，尾盘维持在4160-4170区域震荡，日线收阳。 一、基本面 1、美联储降息预期升温：市场对12月降息押注大幅增加，芝加哥商品交易所FedWatch工具显示，降息25个基点的概率从一周前30%升至85%；美联储官员 鸽派表态、潜在新任主席人选（白宫经济顾问哈西特）的宽松政策倾向，进一步强化宽松预期，低利率环境降低黄金持有机会成本，推动资金流入。 二、技术面 1、日线级别：黄金在周三交易日呈现上涨态势，最终收报阳线。此前提及的三角收敛震荡区间，当前金价已运行至该形态的阻力区域附近。日内需首要关 注行情在阻力区域能否形成有效受阻，若受阻则大概率延续震荡格局；若金价向上突破该阻力区域，短期趋势将进一步延续看涨态势，上方核心阻力位需重 点关注4245附近。 指标层面，5日均线与10日均线形成金叉信号，其中5日均线维持向上延伸态势，10日均线走平。日内下方支撑需重点关注5日均线所处的4130附近区域，该 ...