Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed is at a crossroads due to the impact of tariffs and economic downturn pressures [1] Group 1: Tariff Impact and Inflation - Powell acknowledged that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices has transitioned from expectation to reality, necessitating a reassessment of inflation prediction models [3] - The cost-push inflation resulting from tariffs may lead to rising wages, as workers may demand higher pay due to shrinking real incomes from increasing prices [3] - Powell expressed skepticism about the assumption that tariff effects are temporary, suggesting that if they are persistent, the Fed may need to maintain a more accommodative stance for a longer period [3] Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - Powell emphasized a "special balance" in the labor market, influenced by factors such as technological advancements, the retirement of the baby boomer generation, and tightening immigration policies [4] - These changes are expected to disrupt the traditional Phillips curve framework, prompting the Fed to reconsider its policy approach [4] Group 3: Market Expectations - The market is adjusting its expectations for interest rate cuts, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September rising to 75% according to futures trading data [5]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting boosted market expectations for a rate cut in September, leading to a significant drop in the US dollar index by 0.93% to 97.7, marking the largest single-day decline since early August [1] - Powell emphasized the downside risks to employment and indicated that current conditions warrant adjustments to monetary policy, signaling a likely interest rate cut [1] - The Fed's shift from a flexible inflation target to a simple 2% inflation target while maintaining focus on employment market shortages reflects a significant change in monetary policy framework [1] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices confirmed a breakout from a small descending wedge pattern, with an initial target pointing towards the recent high of 3409 [3] - A daily close above 3439 would trigger a clearer bullish signal, while any upward movement should be approached with caution due to the potential for false breakouts [3] - The overall trend for gold remains strong, with expectations for further upward movement, particularly if prices test the 3405-3410 range [3] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - International crude oil prices stabilized, marking the first increase in three weeks, with WTI crude futures closing at $63.75 per barrel, up 0.46% [4] - The lack of progress in Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations has contributed to market uncertainty, despite strong US crude oil consumption data [4] - Oil prices showed a strong upward trend after dipping to $61.40, but the increase has been modest, indicating a potential rebound rather than a definitive bottoming out [6]

在通胀问题上，鲍威尔进一步表示，美联储"不会允许价格水平的一次性上涨演变为持续的通胀问题"。 在7月31日结束的最新一次政策会议上，美联储将利率维持在4.25%-4.50%的区间不变。 上周五鲍威尔发表上述言论后，美国股市大幅上涨。芝加哥商品交易所集团(CMEGroup)的数据显示， 受讲话直接影响，市场对9月降息的概率预期飙升至90%以上。美国国债收益率也随之走低。 周一（8月25日）亚洲时段，美元小幅上涨，最新美元指数报97.91，涨幅0.20%，两年期美债收益升3个 基点至3.709%，市场聚焦本周五将公布的美国核心PCE物价指数。 美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(JeromePowell)上周五为9月降息敞开大门。他在杰克逊霍尔发表讲话时表 示，"基准前景及不断变化的风险平衡，可能有必要调整我们的政策立场。" 鲍威尔的讲话既涉及经济前景，也提及美联储新的政策框架。他特意指出，通胀风险仍"偏向上行"，并 表示与关税相关的通胀压力"如今已清晰显现"。 "我们预计这些影响将在未来几个月逐步累积，"鲍威尔称，"但其时间节点和影响幅度存在高度不确定 性。对货币政策而言，关键问题在于这些价格上涨是否可能显著增加通胀问题 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market risk preference remains high despite the under - performance of domestic economic and financial data. Different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper may have a small - scale inventory build - up in August but a tight - balance pattern after the off - season; aluminum is expected to have a small inventory build - up in August; zinc is expected to rebound in the short - term and be a short - position configuration in the long - term; nickel can focus on the opportunity of the shrinking ratio of nickel - stainless steel; stainless steel's fundamentals are weak and should pay attention to policy trends; lead prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillation; tin should be observed in the short - term and held near the cost line in the long - term; industrial silicon is expected to be in a tight balance in the short - term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long - term; lithium carbonate has large price elasticity when supply - side disturbances are hyped [1][2][5]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 18th to 22nd, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased by 5, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 45, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 1009. - **Market Situation**: The risk - preference sentiment continued to rise this week. Although domestic economic and financial data were poor, it did not affect the stock market sentiment. The downstream orders were verified to have support around 7 - 8, and the substitution effect of refined and waste copper continued to appear. The waste copper and recycled copper market was still disturbed, and if the recycled rod production continued to decline, it might stimulate the consumption of refined copper. In August, there may be a small - scale inventory build - up, but the market may focus on the tight - balance pattern after the off - season [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 18th to 22nd, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 30, and the social inventory of Shanghai aluminum decreased. - **Market Situation**: The supply increased slightly from January to June. The demand in August is still in the seasonal off - season, which may improve slightly in the middle and late months. The inventory is expected to increase slightly in August. Pay attention to the demand situation in the short - term and the far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunities under the low - inventory pattern [1][2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 18th to 22nd, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 30, the social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 1300. - **Market Situation**: The zinc price fluctuated widely this week. The supply of domestic zinc increased in August, and the overseas mine supply in the second quarter exceeded expectations. The domestic demand was seasonally weak but had some resilience, and the overseas demand was average. The domestic social inventory oscillated upwards, and the overseas LME inventory decreased rapidly. In the short - term, it is expected to rebound, and it is recommended to wait and see; in the long - term, it is a short - position configuration. The internal - external positive arbitrage can be held, and attention can be paid to the inter - month positive arbitrage opportunity [5][6]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 18th to 22nd, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 450. - **Market Situation**: The supply of pure nickel remained at a high level, the demand was weak overall, and the inventory of domestic and overseas nickel plates remained stable. In the short - term, the fundamental situation is general, and the macro - level is mainly about the game of anti - involution policies. The opportunity of the shrinking ratio of nickel - stainless steel can continue to be concerned [9][10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 18th to 22nd, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil decreased by 50, and the price of 304 hot - rolled coil decreased by 75. - **Market Situation**: Some steel mills cut production passively, and the demand was mainly for rigid needs. The prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron remained stable, and the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan decreased slightly. The fundamentals remained weak, and attention should be paid to the policy trend in the later stage [12][14]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 18th to 22nd, the spot premium remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 6550. - **Market Situation**: The lead price oscillated this week. The supply side had problems such as weak scrap volume and tight waste batteries. The demand side had high battery finished - product inventory and a "not - prosperous peak season". The inventory was expected to remain at a high level in August, and the lead price was expected to remain in low - level oscillation next week [15]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 18th to 22nd, the spot import profit decreased by 3915.73, and the LME inventory increased by 45. - **Market Situation**: The tin price fluctuated widely this week. The supply side had issues such as low processing fees at the mine end and potential production resumptions overseas. The demand side had limited solder elasticity and different trends in terminal electronics and photovoltaic consumption. The domestic inventory decreased slightly. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see; in the long - term, it can be held near the cost line [18]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 18th to 22nd, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 110, and the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 110. - **Market Situation**: The resumption of production of Xinjiang's leading enterprises was slower than expected. In August, the supply - demand was in a state of slight inventory reduction. In the short - term, the supply - demand balance may remain tight. In the long - term, the industrial silicon has a large over - capacity, and the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [22]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 18th to 22nd, the SMM electric - carbon price decreased by 1300, and the SMM industrial - carbon price decreased by 1300. - **Market Situation**: The futures price fluctuated greatly this week due to supply - side disturbances. The spot market had a strong peak - season effect, and the inventory was still high. The core contradiction is the supply - side disturbance under the background of over - supply in the long - term. The price has large elasticity when supply - side disturbances are hyped [23][24].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the US dollar is attempting to rebound against major currencies, but remains under pressure due to dovish signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding potential interest rate cuts [1] - Market expectations suggest a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with an overall anticipated reduction of approximately 48 basis points by the end of the year [1][2] - Political uncertainties, particularly President Trump's criticisms of the Federal Reserve's policies, are contributing to downward pressure on the dollar, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [1] Group 2 - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming US PCE price index report, which is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, as this data could further influence the Federal Reserve's policy direction and market sentiment [2] - In terms of technical analysis, the momentum indicators are neutral, and the dollar index needs to close below 97.55 to confirm a bearish signal [2] - Initial support for the dollar index is at 97.55, with further support at 97.20, while initial resistance is at 98.83 and then at 99.08 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Report's Core View - Gold is expected to be strong in the short - term due to the dovish remarks of Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting, which increased the expectation of interest rate cuts and led to a decline in the US dollar index and an upward movement in gold prices. However, market risk - preference recovery is a negative factor for gold. The market is pricing in a relatively high probability of two interest rate cuts this year. [1][3] - Copper is expected to maintain a strong performance. The dovish remarks of Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting led to a decline in the US dollar index and a rapid increase in market risk - preference, causing a jump in copper prices. Domestically, as the industry approaches the peak season and the electrolytic copper inventory decreased last week, industrial support has been enhanced. [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement Logic**: The dovish speech of Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, causing the US dollar index to drop from 98.7 to 97.7 and the New York gold to jump by $40/ounce. The short - term interest rate cut expectation is positive for gold prices, but the recovery of market risk - preference is negative. The market is pricing in a relatively high probability of two interest rate cuts this year. Attention can be paid to the long - short game of New York gold at $3400. [3] - **Viewpoint**: The intraday view is strongly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is strong in the short - term. [1][3] Copper - **Price Movement Logic**: On Friday night, copper prices showed an upward trend, with increased positions in Shanghai copper and the main futures price standing above the 79,000 mark. The dovish remarks of Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting led to a decline in the US dollar index and a rapid increase in market risk - preference, causing a jump in copper prices. Domestically, as the industry approaches the peak season and the electrolytic copper inventory decreased last week, industrial support has been enhanced. [5] - **Viewpoint**: The intraday view is strongly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is strong in the short - term. [1][5]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: None [4] Core Views - The report highlights that KAP announced a production strategy for 2026, planning to reduce output by approximately 10% from a nominal production of 32,777 tons U3O8 (about 85 million pounds) to 29,697 tons (about 77 million pounds) due to capacity adjustments at the JV Budenovskoye project. This decision aims to stabilize prices and maintain market balance amid current supply-demand mismatches [4][16] - The uranium sector is expected to experience a short-term pullback due to changes in US-Russia relations, but the long-term outlook remains strong due to the global nuclear energy expansion trend. The production cuts by leading companies like Kazatomprom are seen as beneficial for consolidating supply-demand dynamics and supporting uranium prices [4] - The upcoming World Nuclear Conference is anticipated to be a significant catalyst for the industry, potentially refocusing market attention on the strategic role of nuclear energy in the energy transition and the scarcity value of uranium resources over the next decade [4] Market Performance Summary - The report notes that during the week of August 18 to August 22, 2025, Hong Kong and US technology stocks initially fell before rebounding. The Hang Seng Technology Index closed at 5,647.7, up 1.9%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 1.6 percentage points [7][9] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed at 5,754.5, with a slight increase of 0.03%, outperforming the Nasdaq 100 but underperforming the S&P 500 [7][9] - The top five gainers in the technology sector included XPeng Motors (+21%), Integra (+14%), SMIC (+13%), Reading Group (+9%), and Huahong Semiconductor (+9%). Conversely, the top five losers were NANO NUCLEAR ENERGY (-13%), Fintech (-8%), Advanced Micro Devices (-5%), Dell Technologies (-5%), and VERTIV (-5%) [9][14] Web3 and Cryptocurrency Market - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization remained stable at $3.97 trillion as of August 22, 2025, with a total trading volume of $191.72 billion, accounting for 4.83% of the total market cap [21][25] - The report indicates that the sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is currently neutral, with the Fear and Greed Index at 46 [25] - The report also notes that there was a net outflow of $1.179 billion from core cryptocurrency spot ETFs during the week, with significant withdrawals from IBIT, GBTC, and FBTC [30][34] Recent and Upcoming Events - Key upcoming events include earnings reports from major companies such as NVIDIA, Crowdstrike, and Dell Technologies scheduled for August 27 and 28, 2025 [20][39] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the Federal Reserve's policy direction, particularly following Chairman Powell's dovish remarks, which have influenced market expectations for interest rate cuts and subsequently impacted cryptocurrency prices [34]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - Powell's dovish shift triggered the market, leading to a significant increase in gold and silver prices, and raising expectations of a September interest rate cut [4][5] - The shift in the Fed's stance to dovish provides support for gold prices, and the premium of Shanghai gold continues to converge [4] - Silver prices mainly follow gold prices, and the premium of Shanghai silver converges [5] - Due to Trump's inauguration, the global situation has become extremely volatile, with inflation expectations shifting to economic recession expectations, making it difficult for gold prices to decline, and silver prices are also affected [9][12] Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: Powell's dovish shift triggered the market, with the US three major stock indexes rising across the board, European three major stock indexes closing slightly higher, US bond yields falling collectively, the US dollar index dropping 0.94% to 97.72, and COMEX gold futures rising 1.05% to $3417.20 per ounce. The gold basis is -2.96, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 813 kilograms to 37455 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the k - line is below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, but the main long positions decreased [4] - **Silver**: Powell's dovish shift triggered the market, risk appetite quickly increased, and silver prices rose significantly. The US three major stock indexes rose across the board, European three major stock indexes closed slightly higher, US bond yields fell collectively, the US dollar index dropped 0.94% to 97.72, and COMEX silver futures rose 2.10% to $38.88 per ounce. The silver basis is -27, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 5932 kilograms to 1109123 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the k - line is below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, but the main long positions decreased [5] 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: Expectations are that today's focus will be on US new home sales in July and speeches by Fed members. Powell's dovish shift triggered the market, raising expectations of a September interest rate cut, and gold prices rebounded significantly. The premium of Shanghai gold continues to converge to -0.45 yuan/gram. The Fed's dovish stance provides support for gold prices [4] - **Silver**: Powell's dovish shift triggered the market, raising expectations of a September interest rate cut, risk appetite quickly increased, and silver prices rose significantly. The premium of Shanghai silver converges to around 370 yuan/kilogram. The Fed's dovish stance makes silver prices stronger [5] 3. Today's Focus - All day: The UK stock market is closed for a holiday - 09:00: China Evergrande is officially delisted from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange - 10:00: The State Council Information Office holds a press conference to introduce the achievements of customs in safeguarding national security and promoting high - quality development during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period - 16:00: Germany's August IFO business climate index - 20:30: US Chicago Fed national activity index for July - 22:00: US new home sales in July - 22:30: US Dallas Fed business activity index for August - 03:15 the next day: 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan gives a speech [14] 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis is -2.96, with the spot at a discount to the futures; gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 813 kilograms to 37455 kilograms [4] - **Silver**: The basis is -27, with the spot at a discount to the futures; Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 5932 kilograms to 1109123 kilograms [5] 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, but the main long positions decreased. As of August 22, 2025, the long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 0.55% to 613,101, the short positions increased by 1.68% to 464,900, and the net position decreased by 2.84% to 148,201 [4][29] - **Silver**: The main net position is long, but the main long positions decreased. As of August 22, 2025, the long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 0.26% to 1,055,006, the short positions decreased by 0.10% to 958,085, and the net position increased by 3.96% to 96,921 [5][31] - **ETF Positions**: Gold ETF positions continue to decrease, and silver ETF positions decreased slightly but are higher than the same period in the past two years [34][37] - **Warehouse Receipts**: Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly, COMEX gold warehouse receipts increased slightly and remained at a high level, Shanghai silver warehouse receipts decreased slightly and are higher than the same period last year, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts increased slightly [38][39][41]

Market Overview - A-shares continue to reach new highs this week, with daily average trading volume exceeding 20 trillion yuan for two consecutive weeks, reflecting strong market sentiment [2][10] - The bond market experienced a decline, with both interest rate bonds and credit bonds weakening, indicating a potential negative return for pure bond funds [2][29] - Gold prices remain under pressure due to the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates and positive geopolitical developments, leading to reduced safe-haven demand [3][36] Stock Market Performance - The A-share market's rise is primarily driven by capital inflow and industry catalysts, with significant structural opportunities present [5][10] - Major indices such as the CSI 500 and CSI 300 saw substantial weekly gains, with the STAR 50 index increasing over 10% [10][11] - The trading volume for the two markets increased by 22.62% week-on-week, with the CSI 300 and CSI 500 seeing higher trading volume proportions [12][13] Bond Market Insights - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a focus on coupon strategies as the market dynamics shift [6][29] - The interbank funding environment has tightened, while exchange funding has loosened, contributing to the overall weakness in the bond market [29][30] Commodity Market Analysis - The Nanhua Commodity Index fell by 0.44% this week, with declines in various sectors including black and non-ferrous commodities [36][38] - Gold prices decreased by 0.23%, while crude oil prices increased by 0.81%, indicating mixed trends in the commodity market [38] Industry Performance - In the industry sector, telecommunications, electronics, and comprehensive sectors showed strong performance with weekly gains of 10.84%, 8.95%, and 8.25% respectively [19][21] - The real estate and coal sectors lagged behind, reflecting a divergence in sector performance [19][21]

换资前言： 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周一（8月25日）亚市早盘，现货黄金震荡微跌，目前交投于3363.21美元/盎司附近。上周五金价大涨 1%，盘中一度创两周新高至3378.69美元/盎司，收报3371.78美元/盎司，因美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克森 霍尔年度央行研讨会上的讲话，如同一场及时雨，浇灭了市场对通胀的担忧，同时点燃了投资者对9月 降息的热切期待。美元的同步下跌进一步放大黄金的吸引力，因为美元指数日内暴跌0.96%至97.66点， 使得持有其他货币的投资者能以更低成本买入黄金。鲍威尔的鸽派声明被明确视为利好信号，近期金价 的疲软反而成为绝佳买入机会，预计黄金将延续上涨轨道。这不仅推动金价强势反弹，更让美元汇率大 幅下挫，黄金市场迎来新一轮看涨浪潮。尽管亚洲实物需求仍显低迷，但华尔街专业分析师和普通投资 者均对黄金前景充满信心。 空单策略： 金九银十"将至，国际黄金投资窗口正开，想抓住这波机会？找金晟富准没错！当下全球不太平，地缘 冲突、经济乏力、物价或涨，股市波动大。而国际黄金在2008年金融危机时，美股跌惨它却涨25%，能 护钱袋子。各国央行连续13年增持，新兴市场 ...