三大阵营的政策分歧日趋明显 美联储内部分歧加剧，市场关注9月降息的可能性。 有"新美联储通讯社"之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos近日发表文章称，美联储官员们虽然同意最终 需要恢复降息，但本周不会行动，他们对何时恢复降息存在严重分歧。 文章认为，目前，美联储内部已经分化为三个不同的阵营：一派想马上降息，担心劳动力市场恶化；中 间派想等更多数据确认关税影响温和；另一派则更谨慎，等看到明显经济疲软才行动。 这种内部分歧源于关税威胁引发通胀担忧，导致美联储此前屡屡暂停降息。 然而，随着关税传导的价格上涨幅度比预期温和，而就业市场显现疲软迹象，叠加特朗普的施压，联储 内部的分歧趋于复杂。 文章指出，焦点是周三FOMC会后鲍威尔在记者会上有关9月是否降息的暗示。 文章指出，虽然沃勒和鲍曼可能的反对票将成为五年来首次有FOMC会议出现"唱反调"的情况，并带来 新的头条新闻，但这实际上凸显了大多数美联储官员对过快行动的普遍谨慎态度，而非对其构成挑战。 保守派则采取了更加鹰派的立场，如亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔·博斯蒂克（Raphael Bostic）担心，关税 公告虽已出，但实际征收率低，价格压力可能在夏末才显现。 ...

Group 1 - The number of job openings in the U.S. decreased from a revised 7.71 million in May to 7.44 million in June, below the market expectation of 7.5 million, indicating a cooling labor market but still a stable overall demand for workers [1] - The decline in job openings was broad-based, primarily driven by the accommodation and food services, healthcare, and finance and insurance sectors [1] - The job openings remain above pre-pandemic average levels, suggesting a relatively healthy demand for workers despite a slowdown in hiring and longer time for unemployed individuals to find new positions [1] Group 2 - The hiring rate in June slowed to 3.3%, the lowest level since November of the previous year, while layoffs remained low and voluntary resignations were scarce, indicating decreased confidence in finding new jobs [1] - The ratio of unemployed workers to job openings remained at 1.1, down from a peak of 2:1 in 2022, which is closely monitored by Federal Reserve officials as a measure of labor supply and demand balance [2] - An independent report indicated that consumer confidence in July improved as concerns about the broader economy and labor market outlook eased [2]

Group 1 - The number of job vacancies in the U.S. decreased to 7.44 million in June, down from a revised 7.71 million in May, indicating a cooling trend in labor market demand [1][4] - The decline in job vacancies affected multiple sectors, including accommodation and food services, healthcare, and finance and insurance, suggesting a broad slowdown in job demand [1][4] - The current level of job vacancies remains above pre-pandemic averages, indicating overall healthy demand for labor, despite a slowdown in hiring pace [4] Group 2 - The hiring rate fell to 3.3% in June, the lowest since November of the previous year, while the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed individuals remained at 1.1, a key indicator monitored by the Federal Reserve [4] - Some economists have raised concerns about the reliability of the JOLTS data due to low response rates and frequent revisions, although similar indicators from job site Indeed also showed a decline in job postings [4] - The upcoming July non-farm payroll report is expected to provide further insights into the labor market, with predictions of slowing job growth and rising unemployment rates [5]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国6月份的职位空缺在前两个月连续跃升后有所下降，但仍徘徊在一个表明劳动力需求总体稳定的水 平。 根据美国劳工统计局周二公布的数据，职位空缺从5月份修正后的771万个减少到744万个，低于市场预 期的750万个。 每个失业工人对应的职位空缺数——美联储官员作为劳动力供需平衡的一个代表指标而密切关注的比率 ——保持在1.1。在2022年的峰值时期，该比率为2比1。 一些经济学家对JOLTS数据的有效性提出了质疑，部分原因是该调查的回复率低且修正幅度大。招聘网 站Indeed一个每日报告的类似指数显示，6月份的职位空缺有所下降，延续了今年以来稳步下降的趋 势。 周二的另一份独立数据显示，随着对更广泛经济和劳动力市场前景的担忧有所缓解，美国7月份的消费 者信心有所增强。 劳动力市场的状况将是本周美联储政策会议的一个主要议题。美联储主席鲍威尔曾将劳动力市场描述 为"稳固"，并以关税对通胀影响的不确定性作为维持利率稳定的理由。 外界普遍预计官员们本周会再次这样做，但一些希望提振正在放缓的劳动力市场的决策者可能会提出异 议。这一点在将于周五公布的7月份非农就业报告 ...

Group 1 - The Central Bank of Russia indicates that a stable downward trend in inflation expectations has not yet formed, and inflation expectations remain high [1] - There are increasing signs of weakness in the labor market [1]

Group 1 - Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve marks the first time a sitting U.S. president has visited the Fed in nearly 20 years, making him the fourth president to do so [2] - The visit coincides with rising criticism regarding the Fed's $2.5 billion renovation project, suggesting Trump's interest may relate to his background in real estate development [2] - Trump has been pressuring Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates from the current target range of 4.25%-4.50% to 1% to alleviate fiscal pressure [2] Group 2 - Market expectations indicate that the Fed is likely to maintain interest rates in the upcoming meeting, with only about a 60% chance of a rate cut in September according to the CME FedWatch tool [3] - Recent data shows a decrease in initial jobless claims, indicating a resilient U.S. labor market, which supports the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged [4] Group 3 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to pause interest rate cuts for the first time in over a year, citing that current inflation has reached the mid-term target of 2% [5] - ECB President Christine Lagarde warned of downside risks to economic growth, particularly due to escalating global trade tensions [5] - There are expectations that the ECB may consider a rate cut in September, with traders anticipating at least one more cut this year [5]

Core Viewpoint - The strong labor market, increase in real income, and robust private sector balance sheets are supporting consumer spending [1] Group 1 - The labor market remains strong, contributing positively to economic stability [1] - Real income has seen an increase, which enhances consumer purchasing power [1] - Private sector balance sheets are described as robust, indicating financial health and capacity for investment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Chairman Bullock expects core inflation to gradually decline to 2.5% despite ongoing global economic uncertainties and unpredictability [1] Economic Indicators - Monthly data suggests that core Consumer Price Index (CPI) may not meet expectations [1] - A significant drop in CPI alongside only a slight increase in unemployment rate is surprising [1] Monetary Policy - The committee is seeking a cautious and gradual path for monetary easing [1] - The RBA's rate hikes have been smaller compared to other central banks, indicating that extensive rate cuts may not be necessary [1] Labor Market - The labor market remains tight, with expectations of some easing by the end of the year [1] - Leading indicators do not suggest a significant rise in the unemployment rate [1]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor, Philip Lowe, indicated that the labor market is only slowly easing, with the unemployment rate remaining relatively low [1] - There is no specific target set for the unemployment rate or the number of job reductions [1]

美联储古尔斯比：如果开始看到劳动力市场恶化，这将成为我政策考量中的一个重要因素。 ...