Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve officials generally agree that the labor market has cooled, but opinions vary on whether this slowdown will worsen. Some express optimism about price pressures, while others warn that current interest rates have a weak suppressive effect on the economy, and further rate cuts could risk the progress of returning inflation to target [1][2][20]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - After successfully securing support for rate cuts in the last two meetings, Powell acknowledged that another cut is not guaranteed. Several officials, including regional Fed presidents, have indicated they will not support a rate cut in the upcoming December meeting [2][4]. - Market expectations shifted dramatically, with traders betting on a pause in policy after the Fed's October 29 announcement of a rate cut. However, by the following Friday, the probability of another cut had dropped to 40% [2][4]. Group 2: Diverging Opinions on Rate Cuts - Opponents of further rate cuts emphasize two main points: first, the slowdown in U.S. job growth may reflect changes in immigration policy and technology rather than a severe decline in labor demand; second, inflation risks include not only tariffs but also resilient overall consumer demand, which undermines the Fed's credibility [6][7]. - Officials like Schmid and Logan have expressed concerns that further rate cuts may not alleviate labor market pressures and could have lasting negative effects on inflation targets [8][9][10]. Group 3: Doves vs. Hawks - The dovish camp has not conceded, with members like newly appointed Fed governor Stephen Milan advocating for rapid and significant rate cuts to avoid potential harm to the labor market. Milan argues that current rates are too high and that data supports a more dovish stance [12][13]. - Other officials, such as Waller and Bowman, remain more concerned about the labor market than inflation, thus supporting rate cuts [16]. Group 4: Current Economic Climate - The Fed is currently in a challenging position, with Powell acknowledging significant divisions among officials regarding the December rate cut. This complexity makes it difficult to achieve reasonable policy outcomes [20][21]. - Analysts suggest that the current policy debate may foreshadow a divided voting landscape in the future, particularly under a Fed chair appointed by Trump [21].

美联储鹰派官员包括堪萨斯城联储主席施密德、波士顿联储主席柯林斯、达拉斯联储主席洛根反对降息，担心通胀回升和美联储抗通胀公信力受损。鸽派 阵营中美联储理事米兰仍力挺降息。截至周五，12月美联储降息概率已跌至4成。 美联储官员们普遍认同劳动力市场已经降温，但对于放缓是否会进一步加剧看法不一。而且，尽管有一部分人对物价压力持乐观态度，另一些人则警告 称，目前的利率水平对经济的抑制作用微弱，进一步降息可能让通胀回到目标的进程面临风险。 市场预期急转，交易员押注政策暂停。在美联储10月29日宣布降息后，尽管鲍威尔鹰派发言，但市场依旧连续数周看好12月会继续降息。然而截至周 五，降息概率已跌至4成。 美联储内部一部分决策者近日加大了对通胀进展可能放缓甚至停滞的警告力度，使得12月再次降息的前景蒙上阴影，也暴露出美联储内部日益加深的分 歧。 鹰派官员齐发声，降息门槛被抬高 这些反对降息者强调两个观点。 媒体分析指出，美联储官员们的这种公开争论并不常见。它反映出当前美国经济形势难以判断，也凸显出美联储主席鲍威尔所面临的困境——如何就货 币政策方向凝聚共识。 在过去两次会议成功争取到降息支持后，鲍威尔也承认，再降一次息并非板上 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's current policy is criticized for being overly restrictive and backward-looking, with calls for at least a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming December meeting [2][4][30] - Recent inflation data has shown improvement, particularly in shelter inflation, which is expected to align more closely with market rents, indicating a dovish stance should be adopted [5][11][12] - There is a concern that the Fed is relying on outdated data, which may lead to delayed policy responses, potentially causing the Fed to fall behind economic changes [21][23][24] Group 2 - The Fed's focus on inflation is seen as myopic, with suggestions that it should also consider labor market conditions and wage growth when making policy decisions [19][20][22] - High-frequency data, such as freight shipments, suggests a different economic reality than what the Fed is currently acknowledging, indicating a need for more timely data analysis [12][20] - The relationship between Fed rate cuts and mortgage rates is emphasized, with expectations that rate cuts will lead to lower mortgage rates, impacting housing affordability [30][31] Group 3 - The discussion includes the potential impact of immigration on inflation, with the argument that increased immigration without sufficient housing supply has contributed to rising rents and inflation [36][37] - The Fed's mandate focuses on stable prices and maximum employment, which may not align with external pressures such as gold and cryptocurrency markets [34][35] - The overall sentiment is that the Fed needs to adapt its approach to better reflect current economic conditions and avoid being reactive rather than proactive [22][24][27]

美联储内部一部分决策者近日加大了对通胀进展可能放缓甚至停滞的警告力度，使得12月再次降息的前 景蒙上阴影，也暴露出美联储内部日益加深的分歧。 美联储官员们普遍认同劳动力市场已经降温，但对于放缓是否会进一步加剧看法不一。而且，尽管有一 部分人对物价压力持乐观态度，另一些人则警告称，目前的利率水平对经济的抑制作用微弱，进一步降 息可能让通胀回到目标的进程面临风险。 媒体分析指出，美联储官员们的这种公开争论并不常见。它反映出当前美国经济形势难以判断，也凸显 出美联储主席鲍威尔所面临的困境——如何就货币政策方向凝聚共识。 有前美联储官员指出，美联储当前面临一项艰难的决策，每个人都希望明确表达自己的立场，因此会站 出来发声、阐述理由。对于整个委员会和鲍威尔来说，要在这种局面下达成共识确实非常具有挑战性。 在过去两次会议成功争取到降息支持后，鲍威尔也承认，再降一次息并非板上钉钉。促使他作出此番警 告的分歧，近期已公开化，一些官员明确表示，他们不会在12月9–10日的会议上支持降息。 其中包括今年拥有投票权的多个地区联储主席，如堪萨斯城联储主席施密德以及波士顿联储主席柯林 斯，以及明年拥有投票权的达拉斯联储主席洛根。 鹰派 ...

美联储洛根周五再次暗示，她将反对美联储在12月份降息，此前她曾反对美联储在10月份降息，因为她 担心通胀过高，趋向上升，要达到美联储的2%目标需要太长时间。"当我展望12月会议时，我认为很难 支持再次降息，除非我们有令人信服的证据表明通胀下降的速度确实快于我的预期，或者我们看到劳动 力市场不只是逐渐降温，"洛根称。 来源：滚动播报 ...

are getting some breaking news out of the Fed. For that, let's get to Steve Leeman. Hey, Steve. >> Hey, Carl.Yeah, timing is everything. You ask about Schmidt. We got Schmidt here, Kansas City Fed President, uh, who desented at the last meeting, saying monetary policy is modestly restrictive, and that, he says, is where it should be.He suggests in the speech he's about to give his intention to oppose additional cuts again in December. Says he mind could change, but right now, that's the way he's leaning. cu ...

越来越多的美联储委员暗示对进一步放松政策持谨慎态度，理由是仍担心通胀，以及在今年两次降息后劳动力市场出现相对稳定迹象，这促使金融市场认为12月降息的概率降至50%以下。一直坚定支持降息的旧金山联储主席戴利表示，在下次政策会议召开前大约四周做出任何决定都“为时过早”。明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利称，鉴于经济的韧性，他10月时反对降息，并且对12月会议持观望态度。包括亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克和克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克在内的无投票权决策者也表示倾向于维持利率不变。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices increased slightly, while other base metals mostly declined, reflecting cautious market sentiment regarding the reopening of the U.S. government [1][4]. Group 1: Copper Market - On November 13, LME three-month copper rose by $12, or 0.11%, closing at $10,956 per ton [2]. - During the trading session, copper prices briefly surpassed the psychological threshold of $11,000, reaching $11,018 per ton for the first time this month before retracting [1]. Group 2: Other Base Metals - Three-month aluminum increased by $2, or 0.07%, closing at $2,896.50 per ton [2]. - In contrast, three-month zinc decreased by $20, or 0.65%, to $3,055.00 per ton, and three-month lead fell by $17.50, or 0.84%, to $2,078.00 per ton [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Analysts emphasize that strong demand, particularly from major consumer countries, is crucial for sustaining price increases [4]. - Investors are awaiting key economic data from China, including new home prices, retail sales, and industrial output [5]. - The Minneapolis Federal Reserve President noted mixed economic signals, with inflation around 3% and pressures in certain labor market sectors [5]. Group 4: Aluminum Price Forecast - ANZ raised its short-term aluminum price target from $2,700 to $2,900 per ton due to strong demand from manufacturing, construction, and automotive sectors [5]. - The bank forecasts aluminum prices could reach $3,000 per ton by June 2026, driven by tightening supply against rising demand [5].

期货市场的定价也随之调整。根据芝商所FedWatch工具的数据，在官员密集发表偏谨慎言论后，交易 员对美联储在12月再次降息的押注，从此前逾六成回落至约五成附近，反映市场对 12 月降息的信心正 在降温。 官员集体降温12月降息预期 在印第安纳州埃文斯维尔大学的一场活动上，穆萨莱姆表示，经过今年两次降息后，"政策利率已更接 近中性，而非轻度紧缩"。在他看来，美国通胀目前仍在3%左右，高于2%的目标，"仍需要对抗偏高的 通胀，同时为劳动力市场提供一定支持"。他预计，美国经济在四季度会略显疲弱，但明年一季度有望 回到趋势增速甚至略高水平。 穆萨莱姆坦言，前期支持降息更多是出于对就业的担忧，而在通胀黏性仍存、经济表现相对有韧性的背 景下，接下来"需要更加谨慎"，以防政策过度宽松。 当地时间11月13日，多位美联储官员先后发声，为市场迅速升温的降息预期"泼冷水"。 在其中最受关注的一场讲话中，圣路易斯联储主席阿尔贝托·穆萨莱姆（Alberto Musalem）重申，他认 为当前利率水准"更接近中性，而不是明显偏紧"，意味着在不过度放松的前提下，美联储可以继续观 望，但进一步大幅降息的空间有限。 Crossmark公司 ...

克利夫兰联储主席哈马克表示，美联储应维持利率稳定，以继续对通胀施压，将物价增速拉回2%的目 标。她指出，尽管劳动力市场存在一定隐忧，高企的通胀依然顽固，尤其对低收入和中等收入家庭造成 持续冲击。哈马克认为，当前利率水平"几乎算不上限制性"，并暗示中性利率可能高于多数政策制定者 的估计，"为了保持政策的限制性，需要让利率维持在当前水平"。 哈马克预计，通胀压力将持续到今年年底甚至延续至明年初。她提到，企业此前已吸收了部分由关税引 发的成本上涨，但如今越来越多的企业寻求将这些成本转嫁给消费者，这可能使物价压力更加顽固。 智通财经APP获悉，美联储内部对下一步政策路径的分歧愈发明显，多位地区联储主席周四先后发表讲 话，就通胀压力、劳动力市场韧性以及利率是否应继续下调提出不同看法。在最新一轮降息后，美联储 基准利率目前位于3.75%至4%区间，但决策者对于该区间是否仍具"限制性"并无共识。 相比之下，明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡里则对10月的降息本身持保留态度。他在接受采访时直言，鉴 于经济表现依然强劲，他当时并不支持降息。他表示，尚未决定下月议息会议将如何投票，"取决于数 据走向，我可以支持降息，也可以支持按兵不动， ...