Group 1 - Goldman Sachs recommends overweighting Chinese stocks for 2026, predicting annual growth of 15% to 20% for the Chinese stock market in 2026 and 2027, supported by significant undervaluation compared to global peers [2][7] - Multiple A-share companies have announced earnings forecasts for 2025, with notable increases: Ding Tai Gao Ke expects a profit increase of 80.72% to 102.76%, Zhongcai Technology anticipates a growth of 73.79% to 118.64%, and Whirlpool projects a 150% increase [4][5] - The A-share market showed strong performance on January 5, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% and returning to 4000 points, marking a 12-day consecutive increase [3] Group 2 - Analysts believe optimism regarding AI development in Asian enterprises and expectations for more stimulus policies in China are driving capital inflows into emerging markets [6] - The weak dollar and domestic policy support are expected to attract more overseas and long-term funds into the A-share market, providing a boost from the capital side [6][7] - The market's positive momentum is supported by improved corporate earnings structures, particularly in advanced manufacturing and companies expanding overseas, which are stabilizing A-share returns [6]

Core Viewpoint - Foreign capital continues to be optimistic about the Chinese stock market, with Goldman Sachs recommending a high allocation to Chinese stocks by 2026, predicting annual growth of 15% to 20% for the Chinese stock market in 2026 and 2027 due to significant undervaluation compared to global peers [1][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 5, the A-share market opened strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% to return to 4000 points, achieving a 12-day consecutive increase [3]. - The market saw a total trading volume of 2.57 trillion yuan, an increase of nearly 500 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [3]. Group 2: Company Earnings Forecasts - Multiple companies released earnings forecasts, with significant growth expected in sectors like PCB and new energy. For instance, Ding Tai Gao Ke anticipates a net profit increase of 80.72% to 102.76% for 2025 [4]. - Zhongcai Technology expects a net profit growth of 73.79% to 118.64%, driven by product optimization and increased sales in wind power blades [4]. - Whirlpool forecasts a net profit increase of around 150% for 2025, attributed to strengthened customer cooperation and increased orders [4]. - Huayou Cobalt anticipates a net profit growth of 40.80% to 55.24%, benefiting from integrated operations and rising metal prices [4]. - Dalian Heavy Industry expects a net profit increase of 11.97% to 23.92%, with projected revenue growth of over 8% [5]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment and Trends - Analysts believe that the optimistic outlook for AI development in Asia and expectations for more stimulus policies in China are driving capital inflows into emerging markets [6]. - The weak dollar and domestic policy support are expected to attract more overseas and long-term funds into the A-share market, enhancing market sentiment [2][7]. - The market is supported by improved corporate earnings structures, particularly in advanced manufacturing and companies expanding overseas, which are stabilizing A-share returns [7].

钴镍锂新变化！20260105 摘要 美国对委内瑞拉的行动和伊朗骚乱等地缘政治事件短期利好有色金属， 但长期影响不确定；俄乌冲突升级加剧市场波动，假期期间白银、镍、 铝等有色金属表现强劲。 南美矿产资源面临资源集中、政策风险和环保审批挑战，紫金矿业和五 矿资源在南美有大量铜矿资源，中国企业需分散布局以降低政治军事风 险。 彭博商品指数调整预计短期内对白银影响大于黄金，但年度调整通常仅 引起短期震荡，不改变贵金属牛市大趋势。 2026 年商品投资主线包括：美元走弱和降息环境下，关注供给缺乏弹 性且需求端有 AI 叙事的金属品种（铜、铝、锡）；能源金属板块，特别 是碳酸锂，有望迎来反转；以及受益于国内反内卷政策的产品做多机会。 权益类资产排序：能源金属（镍、钴）首位，黄金次之，高胜率品种 （铜、铝）第三，战略小金属和新材料最后。能源金属板块正在走出底 部，黄金股票空间更大且估值合适。 Q&A 2026 年能源金属市场的主要看点有哪些？ 2026 年能源金属市场的主要看点包括以下几个方面：首先，钴已经走出了右 侧行情，显示出强劲的增长势头。其次，锂在储能需求超预期的推动下，有望 迎来年度层级的拐点。此外，由于印尼政 ...

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 05 日 PPI呈现"上半年磨底、三季度分化、10-11月温和回升"的修复路 径。8 月是"反内卷"政策落地之后，PPI 的关键分水岭。分行业来看，绝 大多数高权重行业均陷入负值区间，仅有色金属链条形成唯一的正向支 撑。究其原因，内需不足与"内卷式"竞争形成"双重压制"，PPI 的下行压 力主要源于以下两类核心行业：第一类是高权重的中游制造行业，主要 受"内卷"竞争拖累。第二类是上游资源与原材料行业，受地产基建需求 疲软与国际油价回落的共振拖累。 ► 2026 年 CPI 展望：猪周期有望企稳，通胀中枢温和抬升 在 2026 年基期轮换中，猪肉权重有望上升，金银珠宝权重或下 降。回顾 2016 年与 2020 年两次基期轮换，均呈现"食品降、服务升"的 特征，主要遵循"消费升级"主线。2026 年权重调整逻辑或发生逆转：其 一，地产供需格局重塑，居住项权重面临下调（预计-3.0pct）。其二， 疫后修复弹性释放，服务类消费权重显著抬升（预计文娱+2.2pct，交 通+1.4pct）。其三，恩格尔系数回归下行通道，食品烟酒权重延续调降 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.38% on January 5, 2026, returning to the 4000-point level, marking a 12-day consecutive increase since December 17, 2025, the longest streak since March 1992 [1] - The index has previously recorded three instances of 11 consecutive days of gains since March 1992, specifically in May 1992, June 2006, and December 2017 [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Goldman Sachs recommends overweighting Chinese stocks, projecting a 15% to 20% annual increase in the Chinese stock market for 2026 and 2027, driven by factors such as AI applications, the "going out" trend, and "anti-involution" policies [2] - The current valuation of the Chinese stock market is significantly undervalued compared to global peers, with structural upward potential in exports and a rebound in investments supported by policy [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trends - Galaxy Securities suggests that the "spring rally" may begin earlier due to improved investor confidence from the strengthening of the Hong Kong stock market and the renminbi exchange rate during the New Year holiday [2] - The outlook for 2026 indicates a strengthening of reform policy expectations and improved liquidity supported by price factors, which may enhance market confidence [2] Group 4: Capital Flow and Economic Outlook - CICC believes that the recent appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and year-end settlement peaks, will accelerate capital inflow into A-shares [3] - A weak dollar is expected to lead to a global economic recovery, boosting domestic export growth and company profits, while more global funds are flowing into emerging markets seeking higher returns [3]

【导读】高盛发布宏观报告，2026年建议高配中国股票 中国基金报 晨曦 综合整理 1月5日，高盛发布题为《中国2026年展望：探索新动能》的报告。报告称，2026年建议高 配中国股票。 高盛预计2026年和2027年中国股票将每年上涨15%至20%，企业盈利在2026年与2027年 将分别增长14%和12%，并有望叠加约10%的估值修复潜力。盈利增长加速的驱动因素包括 人工智能应用、"出海"趋势和"反内卷"政策。 高盛认为，从外部环境看，中国出口仍存在结构性上行空间。随着全球产业链重构、中国制 造业竞争力和高附加值产品占比提升，未来几年中国出口韧性有望保持，经常账户或将持续 处于较为稳健的状态。 投资方面，按GDP支出法口径，高盛预计固定资本形成总额增速将从2025年的1.5%反弹至 2026年的3.5%。财政扩张将重点支持高科技、城市更新及民生相关基础设施等领域。 消费方面，高盛预计2026年居民消费增速将放缓，但政府消费有望加速并抵消个人消费的疲 弱。近期政策公告显示，消费品以旧换新"国补"计划将在2026年延续。考虑到政策支持方向 与潜在的结构性上行空间，高盛认为服务消费增速将超过商品消费增速。 另外， ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market shows an overall trend of gradual strengthening. The futures contract presents a back structure and positive basis, with the futures price at a discount, resulting in a short - term resonance between the futures and the spot market [1][5]. - The iron ore price is supported by the expected resumption of blast furnaces in January, the recovery of molten iron, and pre - holiday restocking, but attention should be paid to the significant fluctuations in the sentiment of the commodity market [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - **Futures Price**: The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated and strengthened slightly during the day, closing at 797 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan/ton or 0.95% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 195,000 lots, the open interest increased by 25,000 lots to 619,000 lots, and the settled funds were 10.85 billion yuan. The disk price remained in a slightly strong oscillating state [1]. - **Spot Price**: The mainstream varieties of port spot goods, such as PB powder at Qingdao Port, remained unchanged at 808 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder remained unchanged at 685 yuan/ton. The main swap contract was at 105.4 (+0.95) US dollars/ton. The swap price showed a strong upward breakthrough, and the spot market oscillated slightly stronger [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price was 836.8 yuan/ton, with a basis of 39.8 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed slightly. The spread between Iron Ore 1 - 5 was 17.5 yuan, and the spread between Iron Ore 5 - 9 was 22 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts presented a back structure and positive basis, with certain support below the futures price, continuing the trend of gradual strengthening [1]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The supply side was relatively stable, with the year - end rush for volume completed. Attention should be paid to the weather disturbances in the first quarter [2]. - **Demand**: The sample molten iron production increased month - on - month, the profitability rate improved slightly. There was an expectation of blast furnace复产 in January, and steel mills' restocking had gradually started, but the overall pace was still slow. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron before the holiday and the release rhythm of restocking demand [2]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories continued to accumulate, and steel mills' inventories increased slightly month - on - month but were still at a relatively low level year - on - year. The game for year - end restocking was intense, and the overall inventory pressure was building up [2]. Macroeconomic Analysis - **Domestic**: The manufacturing PMI in December reached 50.1%, returning to the expansion range for the first time since April, significantly exceeding seasonal expectations and market expectations. The core driver was the simultaneous recovery of both supply and demand. The price side showed that the anti - involution policy was crucial for price stabilization and recovery. The construction industry PMI also rebounded significantly due to weather and construction progress factors. In the future, attention should be paid to the support of ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds and the rhythm of subsequent fiscal policies [4]. - **Overseas**: In the short term, the key focus was on the candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chairman and the announcement time. Currently, Hassett had a high呼声. If the announcement time was advanced, it might be beneficial for non - ferrous metals, but there were still negative factors such as the adjustment of commodity index parameters and the increase of margins. The silver market was intertwined with long and short factors, and an overall low - buying strategy was maintained [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is a recommendation to overweight Chinese stocks by 2026, highlighting potential growth in the Chinese market [1] Group 2 - The report analyzes that there is structural upward potential in China's exports by 2026, with investment expected to rebound under policy support [2] - It emphasizes the importance of service consumption, encouraging increased holidays and paid leave [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" prioritizes building a modern industrial system and accelerating high-level technological self-reliance, which may lead to strong export and current account performance in the coming years [2] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs' stock strategy team has previously recommended an overweight position in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, forecasting annual growth of 15% to 20% for the Chinese stock market in 2026 and 2027 [2] - Factors driving accelerated earnings growth include the application of artificial intelligence, the trend of "going global," and policies aimed at reducing internal competition [2] - The current valuation of the Chinese stock market shows a significant discount compared to global peers [2]

人民财讯1月5日电，1月5日，高盛在最新发布的研报《中国2026年展望：探索新动能》中，预测2026年 中国实际GDP增速高于市场共识预测，并建议高配中国股票。高盛的股票策略团队在亚太范围内继续建 议高配A股和港股。他们预计中国股市将延续牛市，但上涨步伐有所放缓。预计2026年和2027年中国股 市将每年上涨15%-20%，分别由14%和12%的盈利增长以及约10%的估值向上重估所支撑。盈利增长潜 在再加速的关键驱动因素包括人工智能应用、"出海"趋势和"反内卷"政策。中国股市当前估值相比全球 同业存在显著折价。中国股市对于国内外投资者显著的分散化配置价值应会鼓励更多资本流入市场。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs recommends overweighting Chinese stocks for 2026, projecting annual growth of 15% to 20% for the Chinese stock market in 2026 and 2027, supported by earnings growth and valuation re-rating [1] Group 1: Stock Market Outlook - The stock strategy team at Goldman Sachs has previously suggested overweighting A-shares and Hong Kong stocks in the Asia-Pacific region [1] - The expected growth is driven by 14% and 12% earnings growth, along with approximately 10% valuation re-rating [1] - Current valuations of the Chinese stock market show significant discounts compared to global peers [1] Group 2: Economic Drivers - Accelerating earnings growth is attributed to factors such as the application of artificial intelligence, the trend of "going abroad," and "anti-involution" policies [1] - Structural upward potential exists for Chinese exports in 2026, with investment likely to rebound under policy support [1] - There is an increased emphasis on service consumption, with policies encouraging more holidays and paid leave [1] Group 3: Policy and Planning - The "14th Five-Year Plan" prioritizes building a modern industrial system and accelerating high-level technological self-reliance [1] - Strong performance in exports and the current account is anticipated in the coming years [1]