Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" policy is guiding a short-term strength in energy metals, while gold is under pressure due to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar [1]. - The report suggests that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact due to central bank purchases and fiscal concerns [1]. - Industrial metals are experiencing mixed trends, with copper facing supply disruptions and aluminum entering a potential inventory accumulation phase [1]. Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metals sector showed mixed performance this week, with varying price movements across different metals [10]. - The report notes that the overall non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.0%, with energy metals up by 1.0% and industrial metals up by 1.5% [16]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Global copper inventory increased slightly to 518,000 tons, with supply disruptions from MMG and Hudbay Minerals affecting logistics [1]. The copper price has seen fluctuations due to macroeconomic factors and demand-side pressures [1]. - **Aluminum**: The report indicates a potential inventory accumulation cycle, with production recovering in some regions while demand remains subdued [1]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The report notes a continued strength in lithium prices, driven by supply constraints and robust demand from electric vehicle sales [1]. The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose to 64,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.5% increase [26]. - **Metal Silicon**: The report discusses a short-term upward trend in silicon prices due to production cuts and recovery expectations in polysilicon plants [1]. Key Stocks - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Luoyang Molybdenum, all rated as "Buy" [5]. Company Announcements - Zijin Mining announced an asset acquisition of the RG gold mine project, with a valuation of 1.2 billion yuan [34]. - Ganfeng Lithium completed the acquisition of Mali Lithium, enhancing its lithium resource integration strategy [34]. Price and Inventory Changes - The report provides detailed price movements for various metals, indicating that gold prices increased by 4.2% over the week, while copper prices saw a slight decline [21][23]. Market Trends - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-demand dynamics in the non-ferrous metals market, with particular attention to the impact of macroeconomic indicators on metal prices [1].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.04」 螺纹钢市场周报 反内卷政策助力 螺纹期价向上走高 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 取 更 多 资 讯 1. 价格及价差：截至7月4日收盘，螺纹主力合约期价3072（+77），杭州螺纹中天现货价格3240（+110）。（单 位：元/吨） 2. 产量：螺纹产量继续上调。221.08（+3.24）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求好于预期，再度增加。本期表需224.87（+4.96），（同比-9.91）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库和社库一降一增，波动幅度不大。螺纹钢总库存545.21（-3.79），（同比-241.38）。（单位：万 吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率59.31%，环比上周持平，同比去年增加14.72个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）特朗普表示，到7月9日，"将全面覆盖，关税 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.04」 热轧卷板市场周报 终端需求韧性较强 热卷期价重心上移 添加客服 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）特朗普表示，到7月9日，"将全面覆盖，关税税率可能从60%-70%到10%-20%"。特朗普称各国"将于8 月1日开始支付新关税"。（2）美国总统特朗普宣布与越南达成贸易协议，越南对美出口商品将被征收20%关税，任何转运货物 将被征收40%的关税。另外，越南已同意取消对进口美国商品的所有税费。国内，（1）中央财经委员会强调依法依规治理企业 低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出。（2）国家发改委近日安排超3000亿元支持2025年第三批"两 重"建设项目。至此，今年8000亿元"两重"建设项目清单已全部下达完毕。 2. 供需方面:热卷周度产量延续上调，产能利用率83.83%，维持高位 ...

| PVC、烧碱现货&期货 | | --- | | 品种 | 7月3日 | 7月2日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山东32%液碱折自价 山东50%液碱折百价 | 2406.3 2500.0 | 2406.3 2500.0 | 0.0 0.0 | 0.0% 0.0% | | | 华东电石法PVC市场价 | 4780.0 | 4760.0 | 20.0 | 0.4% | | | 华东乙烯法PVC市场价 | 4980.0 | 4980.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | SH2509 | 2380.0 | 2391.0 | -11.0 | -0.5% | | | SH2601 | 2377.0 | 2384.0 | -7.0 | -0.3% | | | SH基美 | 26.3 | 15.3 | 11.0 | 72.1% | 元/吨 | | SH2509-2601 | 3.0 | 7.0 | -4.0 | -57.1% | | | V2509 | 4914.0 | 4930.0 | -16.0 | -0.3% | | | V ...

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Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [7] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [7] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [7] Core Views - The further rise of aluminum prices requires the resonance of macro - improvement and strong micro - consumption. In the current off - season, there is a slight increase in social inventory, with a small accumulation expected in July. Long - term attention should be paid to the price increase driven by stronger - than - expected consumption under the background of supply constraints [4]. - For alumina, the supply pressure at home and abroad remains unchanged in the long term. Although the delivery risk has been alleviated, it still needs to be vigilant [6]. - For aluminum alloy, it is in the off - season, and the price increase space in the spot market is limited. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6]. Summary by Related Content Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: On July 3, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,860 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20,680 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 114,240 lots and a position of 281,092 lots. As of July 3, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 474,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 356,975 tons, up 350 tons from the previous day [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The spot market transaction premium is still falling, and social inventory shows signs of accumulation. The supply of the electrolytic aluminum industry is limited by the production capacity ceiling, and the industry profit is rich. The smelting profit has expanded to 4,000 yuan/ton in the off - season. In the short term, beware of price drops due to inventory accumulation; in the long term, pay attention to price increases driven by stronger - than - expected consumption [4]. Alumina - **Price and Inventory Data**: On July 3, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,080 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,080 yuan/ton, and in Guangxi was 3,180 yuan/ton. The Australian alumina FOB price was 361.6 US dollars/ton. The alumina main contract closed at 3,026 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 336,450 lots and a position of 279,051 lots. The alumina warehouse receipt was 21,000 tons [2][3]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost side remains stable, and the new project of Guangtou is about to be put into production. The supply pressure at home and abroad remains unchanged in the long term. Although the delivery risk has been alleviated, it still needs to be vigilant [5][6]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Inventory Data**: On July 3, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil aluminum scrap was 15,300 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical aluminum scrap was 15,400 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of aluminum alloy was 108,800 tons, up 2,100 tons week - on - week [3]. - **Market Analysis**: It is in the off - season, and the price increase space in the spot market is limited. The cost side supports the price, and attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6].

[T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-07-04 日度报告——综合晨报 美国 6 月份非农就业增长超预期 宏观策略（股指期货） 西门子称美国对华 EDA 等限制已撤销 因美越达成贸易协议，部分国内消费电子产业链大涨拉动创业 板指强劲反弹。整体市场情绪依然偏高。随着越南谈判落地， 后续预计有更多国家达成协议。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国 6 月份非农就业增长超预期 综 最新的非农数据超预期，6 月失业率降低，新增就业超预期，美 元指数明显反弹。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行开展了 572 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 近几个交易日有影响力的消息相对不多，市场多空交织，预计 国债期货偏震荡走势。后续市场震荡转强的概率较高。 黑色金属（铁矿石） 特朗普宣布与越南达成贸易协议 本期铁水下滑 1.4 万吨，基本符合市场预期。预计 7 月份整体铁 水持平，港口铁矿库存微幅累库，但幅度有限。预计整体走势 依然难以反转，短期预计延续偏强。 农产品（玉米） 玉米可见库存继续下降 可见库存继续下降，首批进口拍卖成交溢价双高，现货玉米继 续偏强。 有色金属（铅） 铅锭五地社会库增加约 600 吨 后续铅价 ...

热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/7/3 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,208 | +17↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1595284 | -474↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | 34,225 | -17114↓ HC10-1合约价差(元/吨) | 0 | +6↑ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) ...

涨跌都能赚 盈利就能离场！点击开通期货"T+0、双向交易"特权！>>> "反内卷"政策持续发酵，黑色建材、能源金属等涨幅居前，铁矿、多晶硅、焦炭等涨超2%！多晶硅盘中一度涨超4%，但午后小幅 跳水，涨幅缩窄至2%附近。 继周三涨停之后，周四多晶硅涨幅收窄，盘中先跌后涨，截至发稿前涨幅在3%以上。光大期货分析称，现货企业报价同步上调， SMM多晶硅N型硅料价格涨至36000元/吨，最低交割品N型硅料价格涨至36000元/吨，现货对主力升水收至950元/吨。 从背后驱动因素来看，本周多晶硅大涨主要与政策提到的反内卷预期有关，市场普遍认为去产能行动大幕开启，多晶硅限产落地有 望提速，提振盘面价格。在短期情绪刺激下，多晶硅价格实现触底反弹，生产利润略得到修复。2.基本面来看，据SMM调研，7月 组件排产环比-2%至45-46GW基本符合预期，光伏终端订单走弱，下游电池片企业采购意愿依然偏弱，自下而上承压。而上游西南 部分企业月内有复产预期，预计硅料整体供给将小幅增长，行业累库风险或继续增长，价格的下行驱动依然较强。短期政策主导市 场情绪，且一时难以证伪，盘面或维持偏强表现。但在价格抬升给到企业套保利润后，中期价格或有 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-03 "反内卷"拉动氧化铝价格 铝期货方面：2025-07-02日沪铝主力合约开于20610元/吨，收于20635元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨75元/ 吨，涨幅0.36%，最高价达20725元/吨，最低价达到20600元/吨。全天交易日成交146289手，较上一交易日增 加11655手，全天交易日持仓283729手，较上一交易日增加630手。 库存方面，截止2025-06-30，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存46.8万吨。截止2025-07-02，LME铝库存356625 吨，较前一交易日增加8000吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-07-02 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3075元/吨，山东价格录得3080元/吨，广西价格录得 3180元/吨，澳洲氧化铝FOB价格录得370美元/吨。 氧化铝期货方面：2025-07-02氧化铝主力合约开于2948元/吨，收于3071元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨130 元/吨，涨幅4.42%，最高价达到3075元/吨，最低价为2931元/吨。全天交易日成交386359手，较上一交易日增 加93491手，全天交易日持仓275495手，较上 ...