Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metals industry is expected to perform well in 2025, driven by macro narratives surrounding the weakening of the US dollar and the AI technology revolution [1] - Industrial metals, particularly copper, have seen significant price increases, with COMEX copper rising by 26.8% compared to the end of last year [1] - In 2026, as global narratives converge, non-ferrous metals may shift from forward pricing to a combination of near and far pricing, leading to an increase in real demand pricing power [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Index (930708), which selects listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of non-ferrous metals, covering key areas such as copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium [1] - The index reflects the overall performance of the non-ferrous metals industry, exhibiting significant cyclical characteristics influenced by economic cycles and the development of the new energy industry [1] - Structural support for the industry may arise from anti-involution policies and export demand driven by industrialization in southern countries [1]

中通快递-W(02057)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.68%，报154.9港元，成交额2.78亿港元。 中通快递近期公布的第三季度业绩显示，三季度公司包裹量95.7亿件，同比增长9.8%，同时也保持了优 质的服务及客户满意度。调整后净利润增长5.0%至人民币25.1亿元，营收118.6亿元，同比增长11.1%， 经营活动产生的现金流为人民币32.1亿元。 消息面上，摩根大通发布研报称，中通快递将在未来3至6个月继续成为运输行业中的首选股，将公司H 股目标价由187港元上调至197港元，予"增持"评级。该行引述中通快递管理层最新评论指，反内卷政策 正从根本上重塑竞争格局，推动整个行业从以量取胜的增长模式，转向更关注品质与盈利能力。摩根大 通认为，中通快递正明显受惠于当前行业发展，除了持续扩大市场占有率，亦展现出稳健的利润表现。 ...

25Q1-3煤炭板块归母净利同比-29%，25Q3板块归母净利312亿元、环比+22%，并且高于25Q1的297亿 元。2025Q1-3煤炭行业营业收入/成本9013/6564亿元，同比-15%/-13%，归母净利合计863亿元，同 比-29%(剔除神华后473亿元、同比-23%)。25Q3营业收入/成本3188/2299亿元，环比+11.4%/+9.9%，归 母净利合计312亿元，环比+22.2%(剔除神华后168亿元、环比+30.7%)。该行认为，7月以来随着煤炭市 场回暖，煤炭售价明显提升，25Q3业绩已经高于25Q1、25Q2的297、255亿元以及24Q4的303亿元，在 25H1持续煤价压力下，主要上市煤企持续降本增效，10月以来随着煤价持续回升以及旺季行情可期， 25Q4业绩有望继续环增。 25Q1-3煤炭行业盈利和现金流指标环比改善，头部动力煤公司维持盈利韧性 25Q1-3样本公司(剔除焦炭公司和安源煤业)平均ROE为2.7%，年化后较2024年9.6%下降6.1pct。25Q3样 本公司账面平均现金流127.4亿元，较25H1的135亿元下降5.7%，较24年底基本持平。2025Q1-3煤炭 ...

中通快递近期公布的第三季度业绩显示，三季度公司包裹量95.7亿件，同比增长9.8%，同时也保持了优 质的服务及客户满意度。调整后净利润增长5.0%至人民币25.1亿元，营收118.6亿元，同比增长11.1%， 经营活动产生的现金流为人民币32.1亿元。 智通财经APP获悉，中通快递-W(02057)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.68%，报154.9港元，成交额2.78亿港 元。 消息面上，摩根大通发布研报称，中通快递将在未来3至6个月继续成为运输行业中的首选股，将公司H 股目标价由187港元上调至197港元，予"增持"评级。该行引述中通快递管理层最新评论指，反内卷政策 正从根本上重塑竞争格局，推动整个行业从以量取胜的增长模式，转向更关注品质与盈利能力。摩根大 通认为，中通快递正明显受惠于当前行业发展，除了持续扩大市场占有率，亦展现出稳健的利润表现。 ...

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan's research report indicates that ZTO Express will continue to be a preferred stock in the transportation industry over the next 3 to 6 months, raising its target price for H-shares from HKD 187 to HKD 197 and for US shares from USD 24 to USD 25, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1 - ZTO Express is benefiting from the current industry development, showing a clear increase in market share while demonstrating robust profit performance [1] - The management's recent comments highlight that anti-involution policies are fundamentally reshaping the competitive landscape, shifting the industry focus from quantity-driven growth to an emphasis on quality and profitability [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the real estate market in China is under pressure, with expectations for policy changes to stimulate demand, including mortgage subsidies for new home buyers and tax rebates for borrowers [4] - The construction materials sector is anticipated to see a valuation recovery as the fundamentals of cyclical building materials companies have bottomed out [4] - Cement prices are expected to rise in the short term due to supply constraints from seasonal production policies, despite a recent decline in demand [5] - The glass industry is facing a downward trend in demand, with high inventory levels among intermediaries, and the need for policy changes to improve market conditions [6] - The fiberglass sector is experiencing growth driven by demand from the AI industry, with expectations for a significant increase in both volume and price [6] - The consumer building materials segment has reached a profitability bottom, with strong price increase demands from companies following years of competition [6] Summary by Sections Cement - National cement market prices have decreased recently, with a production volume of 148 million tons in October, down 15.8% year-on-year [10] - Demand is still under pressure, but there is a slight improvement expected in November due to project rush [10] Glass - The glass industry is experiencing a continuous decline in demand, with traditional peak season orders showing limited improvement [17] - Supply-demand imbalances persist, and the industry is closely monitoring policy changes for potential recovery [17] Fiberglass - The fiberglass sector is seeing price increases of 5%-10% due to collaborative pricing efforts among manufacturers, with strong demand from the AI sector [6] Consumer Building Materials - The industry has reached a profitability bottom, with no further downward price pressure expected, and companies are actively seeking price increases [6]

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided Core View of the Report - There is a possibility that PPI will start to rise in 2026, driven by multiple factors including supply - demand conditions and macro - policies, and the capital market needs to assess its impact [1][3][5] Summary by Related Content PPI Cycle and Driving Factors - The PPI has a cycle of about 5 years in the past 20 years and is highly positively correlated with industrial product prices. The current cycle started in 2020, reached a peak in Q4 2021, and has been in deflation since Q4 2022. 2026 may be a turning point [1] - Past PPI upward cycles were driven by supply - demand factors, macro - policies, or both. In 2016, supply - side reform and monetized shantytown renovation led to price increases. In 2020 - 2021, "double - loose" policies and supply interruptions had the same effect [3] - In 2026, both supply - demand and macro - policies support rising industrial product prices. Domestically, new projects are expected to start as it's the first year of the "15th Five - Year Plan", and the "anti - involution" policy will control supply. Overseas, the US is in the process of re - industrialization, and private investment in equipment and intellectual property is growing. The Fed is likely to continue cutting interest rates [4][5] Impact on the Bond Market - In Q3, supply - side reform news briefly affected the bond market, but the price increase was not sustained. In 2026, if PPI turns positive, it may change market expectations of monetary policy and have a negative impact on the bond market [7] Impact on the Stock Market - The cycle sector's performance is usually in line with PPI recovery, but there have been deviations. Currently, the sector has risen significantly before PPI improvement, and the short - term rally may be over - hyped. Future performance depends on whether commodity prices can be maintained or rise. Once PPI recovers, it will be positive for the cycle sector and the overall A - share market [10][11]

磷化工行业专家电话会 20251120 摘要 工信部推动反内卷政策，但磷化工行业供大于求局面难改，预计 2028 年后市场或好转，期间缺乏竞争力的企业或将退出，行业整合加速。 磷肥行业经历供给侧改革后，总产能于 2024 年底达 2,350 万吨。受出 口法检和配额制影响，二元肥和三元肥出口受限，行业面临有价无市的 困境。 中国磷矿石储量分布不均，开采成本上升，叠加国内外市场波动，导致 部分地区供应紧张，推高生产成本，加剧下游企业经营压力。 磷复肥作为农业刚需，消费需求稳定。2025 至 2026 年行业整体预计 保持稳定，但需关注出口政策调整，如出口放开时间和配额量变化。 国内磷矿石开采产能逐年增长，预计 2027 年总产能达 1.8 亿吨以上。 高品位矿属于战略资源，开采审批严格，倾向于国有企业开发，且要求 就地转化率不低于 80%。 高品位磷矿石价格自 2022 年以来稳步上涨，供应紧张局面难改，预计 价格将维持稳定。中低品位磷矿石价格受季节性影响波动较大。 工业级磷酸一铵（公安）受益于新能源需求增长，市场前景乐观。预计 到 2027 年国内公安总产能将达 600 万吨以上，价格受成本上涨影响有 所提升 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investor sentiment is significantly influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical situations, leading to rapid rotation of market hotspots and a likely continuation of a volatile trend in the Hong Kong stock market [1] Sector Recommendations - The market's fluctuating risk appetite may drive investors towards dividend stocks for defensive positioning [1] - Concerns regarding the AI bubble are gradually diminishing following recent market corrections, presenting new allocation opportunities in the technology sector [1] - The effects of "anti-involution" policies are becoming evident, with changes in supply and demand dynamics potentially leading to a sustained rebound in cyclical stocks as commodity prices rise [1]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling over 2% and the ChiNext Index dropping over 4% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.97 trillion, an increase of 257.5 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - By the end of last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.41%, and the ChiNext Index by 4.02% [1] Investment Strategies - Huatai Securities emphasized the importance of focusing on mid-term themes and maintaining a safety margin in current market conditions, suggesting that the market adjustment has begun to show potential for recovery [2] - The firm noted that the current market valuation is close to a "reasonable" central point, and if there is an overshoot, investors could consider increasing their positions [2] - Recommended sectors include low-level domestic consumption, domestic computing power, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while continuing to hold large financial stocks to reduce volatility [2] Monetary Policy Insights - CITIC Securities highlighted that the recent issuance of offshore central bank bills in Hong Kong aims to stabilize the offshore RMB exchange rate and curb speculative trading [3] - The issuance is intended to tighten offshore RMB liquidity, thereby increasing the cost of short-selling and preventing a consensus on unilateral depreciation [3] - The central bank's strategy is based on three considerations: managing liquidity to avoid excessive market fluctuations, enhancing the competitiveness of the offshore RMB bond market, and preventing abnormal cross-border capital flows to maintain financial stability [3] Policy Focus - Zhongtai Securities indicated that the current "anti-involution" policies are likely to focus more on key sectors with global "rare earth-like" characteristics, particularly in industries like photovoltaics, batteries, and automobiles, where low-price competition has intensified [4] - The characteristics of these key sectors include holding dominant capacity and technology in the global market, facing challenges from disorderly expansion and low-price competition, and having potential for long-term growth driven by external demand [4] - The policies aim to ensure healthy industry development and leverage these sectors as strategic tools or bargaining chips between nations [4]