Group 1 - The total social financing scale in Liaoning Province increased by 279.3 billion RMB in the first half of the year, marking the highest increase for the same period in nearly a decade [1] - Loans to the real economy amounted to 182.8 billion RMB, providing strong financial support for the comprehensive revitalization of Liaoning [1] - By the end of June, the balance of RMB loans in Liaoning's financial institutions reached 5.36 trillion RMB, an increase of 167.3 billion RMB from the beginning of the year, with a year-on-year increase of 130.1 billion RMB [1] Group 2 - The balance of technology loans in the province reached 821.78 billion RMB, with an increase of 65.27 billion RMB [2] - Green loans amounted to 666.98 billion RMB, accounting for 12.4% of total loans [2] - The balance of inclusive micro loans reached 473.1 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%, with new inclusive micro loans of 56.8 billion RMB in the first half of the year [2]

上半年，天津社会融资规模累计增加3058亿元，同比多708亿元，社会融资规模结构呈现三个"多增"。 一是企业债券融资多增。上半年全市企业债券净融资165亿元，同比多增402亿元。二是政府债券融资多 增。上半年全市地方政府债券净融资1080亿元，同比多增453亿元。三是信托贷款多增。上半年全市信 托贷款增加420亿元，同比多增156亿元。 （文章来源：新华财经） 其中，主要产业贷款快速增长。6月末，全市工业中长期贷款同比增长6.3%，电力、热力、燃气及水生 产和供应业贷款同比增长13.1%，建筑业贷款同比增长13.0%，住宿和餐饮业贷款同比增长66.9%，信息 传输、软件和信息技术服务业贷款同比增长40.8%，均高于各项贷款平均增速。 另外，重点领域贷款保持较快增长。6月末，全市科技贷款余额同比增长10.5%，绿色贷款比年初增长 15.9%，普惠小微企业贷款同比增长15.7%，农林牧渔业贷款同比增长10.5%，均显著高于各项贷款增 速。 新华财经天津7月30日电（记者李亭）记者从人民银行天津市分行获悉，2025年上半年，天津市存款、 贷款增速加快，社会融资规模同比多增，有力支持实体经济回升向好和高质量发展。 存 ...

Core Insights - The social financing scale in Liaoning Province increased by 279.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking the highest level for the same period in the past decade [1] - The total RMB loan balance of financial institutions in Liaoning reached 5.36 trillion yuan by the end of June 2025, with an increase of 167.3 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, and a year-on-year increase of 130.1 billion yuan [1] Loan Structure - State-owned banks maintained a high growth rate in lending [1] - Inclusive small and micro loans grew by over 20%, with a balance of 473.1 billion yuan at the end of June, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.5%, which is 7.1 percentage points higher than the previous quarter [1] - Loans for scientific research and technical services increased significantly, with a balance of 32.4 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 65.01% [1] - Manufacturing loans also saw a year-on-year increase, with a balance of 698.8 billion yuan at the end of June, an increase of 43.5 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, and a year-on-year increase of 40.8 billion yuan [1] Deposits Overview - The total RMB deposit balance of financial institutions in Liaoning reached 8.54 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4% [1] - Household deposits and non-financial enterprise deposits stood at 6.48 trillion yuan and 1.01 trillion yuan, respectively [1]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of Shanghai reported a stable growth in credit and financing costs, contributing to the high-quality economic development of Shanghai in the first half of 2025 [1][3] Group 1: Credit and Financing - As of June, the total balance of loans in Shanghai reached 12.85 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.4%, which is 1.6 percentage points higher than the national average [1] - Household loans increased by 13.7% year-on-year, with a notable recovery in personal housing loan demand since October of the previous year [1] - Non-financial enterprise loans grew by 5.5% year-on-year, with these loans accounting for 55.2% of all new loans in the first half of the year [1] Group 2: Loan Structure and Costs - The loan structure has been optimized, with significant increases in loans to the technology and inclusive finance sectors, showing year-on-year growth of 28.9% for information technology, 19.7% for research services, and 14.9% for inclusive small and micro loans [2] - The weighted average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in June was 2.74%, down 49 basis points from the previous year, marking a historical low [2] - The weighted average interest rate for small and micro enterprise loans was 3%, a decrease of 56 basis points year-on-year [2] Group 3: Social Financing and Direct Financing - The social financing scale in Shanghai increased by 841.8 billion yuan in the first half of the year, which is 324 billion yuan more than the previous year, effectively meeting the financing needs of the real economy [3] - RMB loans to the real economy increased by 510.8 billion yuan, accounting for 60% of the total social financing increment [3] - Direct financing saw significant growth, with net financing from corporate bonds at 102.6 billion yuan, net financing from non-financial enterprise stocks at 14.2 billion yuan, and net financing from government bonds at 144.4 billion yuan, with the latter showing a year-on-year increase of 2.036 billion yuan [3]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China Shanghai Headquarters reported a rebound in personal housing loan demand in Shanghai, with financing costs stabilizing and showing a slight decline [1] Financial Overview - As of the end of June, the total loan balance in Shanghai reached 12.85 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.4%, which is 1.6 percentage points higher than the national average [1] - The social financing scale in Shanghai increased year-on-year, with stable growth in total credit and a continuous optimization of the credit structure [1] Loan Growth - Household loan balances grew by 13.7% year-on-year, which is an increase of 8.1 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] - The demand for personal housing loans has been on the rise since turning positive in October of the previous year [1] - Non-financial enterprise loan balances increased by 5.5% year-on-year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China maintains the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for over 5 years, indicating a stable monetary policy amid economic recovery efforts [1] Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The monetary policy is characterized by moderate easing, effectively supporting macroeconomic stability [1] - M2 growth reached 330.29 trillion yuan, up 8.3% year-on-year, marking the highest level since March 2024 [2] - M1 increased by 4.6% year-on-year, the highest since May 2025, indicating a recovery in demand for current deposits [2] - The gap between M2 and M1 growth rates narrowed to 3.7%, the lowest since 2022, suggesting a rebound in investment and consumption [2] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains low at 0.1%, and Producer Price Index (PPI) at -3.6%, reflecting cautious expectations among economic entities [2] Social Financing and Government Bonds - Social financing stock grew by 8.9% year-on-year, indicating an improving financing environment for the real economy [3] - Government bonds are the main contributor to the increase in social financing, with a 21.3% year-on-year growth [3] - In June, social financing increased by 900.8 billion yuan year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [3] Loan Structure and Consumer Behavior - Residents show caution in short-term loans, reflecting weak consumer confidence, while long-term loans are supported by policy and real estate market recovery [5] - Corporate loans increased, indicating a willingness to invest in production expansion and technological upgrades [5] - The stability of LPR rates suggests no significant changes in influencing factors, with banks facing high interest margin pressures [5] Future Monetary Policy Directions - The monetary policy should remain moderately loose, with potential for further rate cuts depending on inflation trends [6] - Structural monetary policy tools will be optimized to support key sectors like small enterprises and green development [6] - Coordination between monetary and fiscal policies is essential to create a synergistic effect [7] - Enhanced management of monetary policy expectations and risk monitoring in key areas like real estate and local government debt is necessary [7]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for over 5 years, aligning with market expectations, while the monetary policy remains moderately accommodative to support macroeconomic stability [1] Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The monetary policy is effectively supporting macroeconomic stability through a combination of total control and structural tools, with a focus on enhancing corporate investment and consumer confidence [1] - Broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.3% year-on-year to 330.29 trillion yuan by the end of June, marking the highest growth since March 2024 [2] - Narrow money supply (M1) increased by 4.6% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in both corporate and household demand for current deposits [2] - The gap between M2 and M1 growth rates narrowed to 3.7%, the lowest since 2022, suggesting a rebound in investment and consumption willingness [2] Social Financing and Loan Structure - The total social financing stock grew by 8.9% year-on-year by the end of June, indicating an improving financing environment for the real economy [3] - Government bonds are the main contributor to the increase in social financing, with a 21.3% year-on-year growth, while loans to the real economy grew by 7% [3] - In the household sector, short-term loans remain weak, reflecting cautious consumer sentiment, while long-term loans are supported by policy measures and a recovering real estate market [3] Corporate Loan Trends - Both short-term and long-term loans for enterprises have increased, indicating a growing willingness to invest in production expansion and technological upgrades [4] - The stability of the LPR in July suggests that there have been no significant changes affecting the pricing factors, despite high pressure on bank interest margins [4] Future Monetary Policy Directions - The monetary policy is expected to remain moderately accommodative, with potential for further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates in the second half of the year, depending on price index changes [5] - There is a focus on optimizing structural monetary policy tools to support key sectors such as small and micro enterprises, technological innovation, and green development [5] - Coordination between monetary and fiscal policies is emphasized to create a synergistic effect, while monitoring risks in real estate, local government debt, and external market fluctuations [5]

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for June indicates a significant increase in M1 and M2 growth rates, reflecting heightened liquidity and economic activity, primarily driven by government financing and seasonal factors, while consumer confidence remains cautious [1][2][3]. Group 1: Monetary Data - In June, the new social financing scale reached 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 900 billion yuan year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.9% for the social financing stock, up from 8.7% [1][2]. - M1 growth accelerated from 2.3% in May to 4.6% in June, while M2 increased from 7.9% to 8.3%, indicating improved liquidity and economic activity [1][3]. - The M2-M1 gap narrowed to 3.7% from 5.6% in the previous month, suggesting a more optimistic market outlook and enhanced production and consumption investment intentions [1][3]. Group 2: Financing Data - Government bond issuance remains robust, with net financing of 1.3548 trillion yuan in June, a year-on-year increase of 507.2 billion yuan, contributing to a total issuance of 7.66 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, which is 65% of the annual target [2][4]. - Corporate loan demand showed signs of recovery, with new corporate loans in June totaling 1.77 trillion yuan, an increase of 140 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a strong seasonal performance [4][5]. - Resident loans increased moderately, with short-term loans rising due to seasonal consumption patterns, but overall performance remains weak compared to historical averages [5].

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In June, China's social financing scale increased by 41,993 billion RMB, exceeding the expected 37,051 billion RMB and the previous value of 22,870 billion RMB[6] - New RMB loans in June amounted to 22,400 billion RMB, surpassing the expected 18,447 billion RMB and the previous value of 6,200 billion RMB[6] - M2 growth in June was 8.3%, higher than the expected 8.1% and the previous value of 7.9%[4] Group 2: Credit and Financing Trends - New credit in June was 22,400 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 1,100 billion RMB, although still below seasonal averages[11] - Short-term loans contributed significantly to the increase, with a year-on-year rise of 1,334 billion RMB[16] - Government bond financing in June reached 13,508 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5,032 billion RMB, supporting overall social financing[35] Group 3: M1 and M2 Analysis - M1 increased by 4.6% year-on-year, a significant rise of 2.3 percentage points from the previous month[37] - Total deposits in June increased by 32,100 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 7,500 billion RMB[37] - Resident deposits rose by 3,300 billion RMB year-on-year, while non-financial corporate deposits increased by 7,773 billion RMB[37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current core combination of "weak economic recovery + low inflation" remains unchanged, and the loose liquidity continues, which still provides positive support for the bond market. In the short term, the upside and downside space of yields is limited, and it is expected that Treasury bond futures will continue to fluctuate. Given that there is no directional turn in the policy environment and fundamentals, investors are advised to maintain a certain position [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T, TF, and TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.05%, 0.01%, and 0.05% respectively, while the TS main contract closing price increased by 0.01%. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts decreased by 1203, 616, 81, and 2014 respectively [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - The spreads of TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, TF2512 - 2509 increased by 0.01, 0.04, and 0.02 respectively, while the spread of TS2512 - 2509 remained unchanged. The spreads of T09 - TL09 remained unchanged, and the spreads of TF09 - T09, TS09 - T09, TS09 - TF09 increased by 0.03, 0.06, and 0.03 respectively [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL decreased by 2732, 3823, 718, and 2238 respectively. Among the top 20 long - positions, T and TS decreased by 1044 and 793 respectively, while TF and TL increased by 603 and 412 respectively. Among the top 20 short - positions, T decreased by 184, TF decreased by 730, TS decreased by 25, and TL increased by 170. The net short - positions of T and TS increased by 860 and 768 respectively, while those of TF and TL decreased by 1333 and 242 respectively [2] 3.4 CTD (Clean Price) - The clean prices of 250007.IB, 240020.IB, 210014.IB decreased by 0.0380, 0.0175, 0.0832 respectively, while the clean prices of 220010.IB, 250006.IB, 240010.IB, 210005.IB increased by 0.0168, 0.0262, 0.0090, 0.0637 respectively [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bond Yields - The yields of 3y, 5y, 7y, 10y decreased by 1.25bp, 1.30bp, 1.65bp, 1.11bp respectively, while the 1y yield remained unchanged [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - The silver - pledged overnight rate increased by 17.02bp, while the Shibor overnight rate decreased by 6.90bp. The silver - pledged 7 - day and 14 - day rates decreased by 4.43bp and increased by 2.00bp respectively, and the Shibor 7 - day and 14 - day rates decreased by 4.20bp and 2.00bp respectively [2] 3.7 LPR Rates - The 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale was 520.1 billion yuan and 444.6 billion yuan, and the maturity scale was 75.5 billion yuan, with an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 - day [2] 3.9 Industry News - In June, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods was 4228.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. In the first half of 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 24865.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%, and the fixed - asset investment in June decreased by 0.12% month - on - month. From January to June, the national real estate development investment was 4665.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. In the first half of the year, the total value of China - US imports and exports was 2.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%, among which exports decreased by 9.9% and imports decreased by 7.7%. The China - US trade turned from a year - on - year increase in the first quarter to a year - on - year decrease in the second quarter, with a decline of 20.8% [2] 3.10 Market Performance - On Wednesday, Treasury bond cash bonds showed mixed trends. The yields of 1 - 3Y bonds decreased by about 0.25 - 0.85bp, the yields of 5 - 7Y bonds increased by about 0.50bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds increased by about 0.30bp and 0.50bp respectively. Most Treasury bond futures declined, with the TS main contract rising by 0.01%, and the TF, T, TL main contracts falling by 0.01%, 0.05%, 0.05% respectively [2] 3.11 Domestic Fundamentals - In June, industrial added value and retail sales showed a slight recovery, the scale of fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and the unemployment rate remained the same as the previous month. In terms of financial data, social financing increased more than expected, credit demand improved marginally, and the activity of deposits increased. In June, affected by the progress of China - US trade negotiations, imports and exports increased significantly year - on - year. The price level continued to be under pressure, with CPI improving marginally and PPI falling into deflation for 7 consecutive months [2] 3.12 Overseas Situation - In June, the US core CPI was continuously lower than expected, but due to the recent US tariff policy, inflation risks continued to rise. There were greater differences within the Fed regarding the impact of tariffs on the inflation path, but the policy tone remained cautious and wait - and - see, and there was no consensus on the expectation of interest rate cuts [2]