Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the later focus is on macro policies and downstream demand [4] - The aluminum price is expected to run within a short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and downstream start - up [5] Summary by Related Catalogs 1.成材 - The production suspension of short - process steel mills in Yunnan and Guizhou regions during the Spring Festival is expected to affect the total output of construction steel by 741,000 tons, and the daily output affected by the suspension of some Anhui steel mills is about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% week - on - week and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [4] - The finished products continued to decline in shock yesterday, with the price hitting a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, and the price support is not strong [4] 2. Aluminum - Last week, the aluminum price ran strongly within the range. The market is concerned about trade negotiation progress and US economic data. Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Russia, and the market is waiting for US consumer and producer price index data [3] - As of last Thursday, the national metallurgical - grade alumina's built - in total production capacity was 110.82 million tons/year, and the operating total production capacity was 88.57 million tons/year. The weekly alumina start - up rate decreased by 0.05 percentage points to 79.92%. Some enterprises in Shandong and Guangxi carried out maintenance [4] - Guinea requires that 50% of bauxite exports must be transported by ships flying the Guinean flag in the future. As of now in 2025, Guinea's bauxite exports have increased by 37% year - on - year [4] - As of the end of June, the inventory of alumina enterprises increased by 81,000 tons. Affected by factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand, the start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6% last week [4] - On July 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 501,000 tons, an increase of 35,000 tons compared with last Thursday and 23,000 tons compared with last Monday [4]

Group 1: Immigration Statistics - As of the end of 2024, the estimated number of illegal immigrants in the U.S. is approximately 12.8 to 15.2 million, contributing about 8.5 to 10 million to the labor force assuming a labor participation rate of 66.3%[3][13]. - From February to June this year, the number of deportations was less than 100,000, accounting for only 0.7-0.8% of the total illegal immigrant population[4][15]. - Between January and May this year, the number of illegal immigrants encountered at the southwestern border was approximately 108,700, representing a decrease of 88% compared to the same period in 2024[4][17]. Group 2: Changes in Public Attitude Towards Immigration - The percentage of Americans wanting to reduce immigration has dropped from 55% in June last year to 30% in June this year, with significant declines across all political parties[5][19]. - Currently, 79% of American adults believe immigration is beneficial to the country, the highest level since 2001[5][25]. - Support for providing a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants has increased from 70% last year to 78% this year, while support for deporting all undocumented immigrants has decreased from 47% to 38%[6][29].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes reveal significant divisions among officials regarding the impact of U.S. tariff policies on inflation, contributing to uncertainty in economic policy [1] - The term "uncertainty" was mentioned 27 times in the minutes, highlighting the complexities faced by the Federal Reserve due to rapid changes in U.S. economic policies [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% for the fourth consecutive time, with market expectations shifting regarding potential rate cuts following mixed signals from officials [1] Group 2 - Current monetary policy positions among the 12 Federal Reserve voting members show considerable divergence, with 6 holding a neutral stance and 2 adopting a hawkish position [2] - The minutes indicate that while some policymakers are open to rate cuts if data aligns with their expectations, the overall support for short-term rate cuts remains limited [2] - The cautious approach to adjusting monetary policy reflects a consensus among officials that there may not be a need for rate cuts this year [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma regarding interest rate cuts, needing to balance the prevention of economic recession with the risks of inflation due to tariffs and trade protection measures [3] - Key factors influencing the Fed's potential shift to a dovish stance include significant changes in U.S. economic data, particularly if economic contraction becomes evident while inflation remains manageable [3] - Despite some signs of weakness in the job market, overall employment data suggests resilience, leading to a lower probability of rate cuts in July [3]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon stated that the real data of the U.S. economy is completely indecipherable [1] Group 1 - Dimon emphasized the challenges in interpreting current economic indicators, suggesting a disconnect between data and actual economic conditions [1] - The CEO pointed out that various economic metrics are sending mixed signals, complicating the understanding of the economic landscape [1] - Dimon expressed concerns about the potential implications of these unclear economic signals for future growth and investment strategies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing high volatility and mixed opinions regarding its future trajectory, particularly for the second half of 2025, influenced by geopolitical factors, central bank policies, and economic data [1][5][7]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - Gold prices have shown a significant upward trend earlier this year but have entered a phase of fluctuation since mid-June, with current prices around $3,330 per ounce [1][3]. - As of July 8, 2023, COMEX gold futures were reported at $3,343 per ounce, while London spot gold was at $3,333 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Short-term factors supporting gold prices include expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical uncertainties, and central bank gold purchases [3][5]. - Conversely, potential downward pressures include technical resistance, increased speculative trading, and weak physical demand [3][7]. Group 3: Central Bank Demand - A recent survey indicated that nearly 43% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next year, with 95% expecting continued gold accumulation [5][6]. - China's gold reserves increased to approximately 2,298.55 tons as of June, marking the eighth consecutive month of accumulation [6]. Group 4: Economic Data and Predictions - U.S. economic data and market expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts are critical in determining gold price movements [7]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs and Citigroup express concerns that the anticipated rate cuts may lead to a decrease in gold prices, with Citigroup predicting a drop to between $2,500 and $2,700 per ounce by Q2 2026 [7][8]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term fluctuations, there is a long-term optimistic view on gold's value as a hedge against currency devaluation and inflation, supported by ongoing central bank purchases and a low-interest-rate environment [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict eases, but risks of economic recession and geopolitical fluctuations remain; the risk of stagflation in the US economy increases, and strong employment suppresses the expectation of interest rate cuts. - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, Trump's signature tax - cut bill has passed, and countries face pressure to reach trade agreements with the US. - In terms of the monetary attribute, overall US employment growth is stronger than expected, eliminating the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in the near term. The market now expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total rate - cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly. - In terms of the commodity attribute, the rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices. - It is expected that precious metals will show a pattern of weak gold and strong silver in the short term, oscillate at high levels in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals oscillated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed down 0.64%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed down 0.50%. [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [2] - **Data Details**: - **Prices**: Comex gold main contract closed at $3336/oz, up 1.52% from last week; London gold at $3331.9/oz, up 1.84%. Shanghai gold main contract closed at 771.3 yuan/g, down 0.74% from the previous day but up 0.48% from last week. [2] - **Positions**: Comex gold positions decreased by 1.42% from last week; Shanghai gold main contract positions increased by 12.80%, and gold TD positions increased by 2.22%. [2] - **Inventory**: LBMA gold inventory remained unchanged; Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08%, and Shanghai gold inventory increased by 1.32%. [2] Silver - **Price Anchor**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. [5] - **Fund and Inventory Situation**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF reduced their positions again, and the visible silver inventory increased slightly recently. [5] - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy on dips with proper position management and stop - loss/take - profit. [6] - **Data Details**: - **Prices**: Comex silver main contract closed at $37.04/oz, up 2.42% from last week; London silver at $36.89/oz, up 2.52%. Shanghai silver main contract closed at 8944 yuan/kg, up 2.25% from the previous day and 1.68% from last week. [6] - **Positions**: Comex silver positions remained unchanged; Shanghai silver main contract positions increased by 16.45% from the previous day but decreased by 12.60% from last week, and silver TD positions increased by 3.27%. [6] - **Inventory**: The total visible silver inventory increased by 0.12% from last week. [6] Key Fundamental Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance rate all decreased by 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous period. The Fed's total assets decreased by $30.94 billion, a decrease of 0.00%. [8] - **Economic Data**: US GDP annualized year - on - year growth was 1.9%, a decrease of 1.00 percentage points; the unemployment rate was 4.1%, a decrease of 0.10 percentage points; non - farm employment increased by 147,000. [11] - **Inflation Data**: CPI year - on - year was 4.50%, an increase of 0.65 percentage points; core PCE price index year - on - year was 2.68%, an increase of 0.10 percentage points. [8][11] - **Other Data**: The geopolitical risk index remained unchanged; the VIX index decreased by 0.18% from the previous day; the CRB commodity index increased by 1.57% from the previous day. [12] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability distribution of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from July 2025 to December 2026 is provided, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's future interest rate adjustments. [13]

Market Performance - The US stock market experienced a strong performance, with all three major indices closing higher on July 3, 2023. The Nasdaq rose by 1.02%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.83%, and the Dow Jones gained 0.77% [1] - The S&P 500 index reached its seventh historical closing high of the year, while the Nasdaq achieved its fourth historical closing high of the year [1] Technology Sector - Major US technology stocks saw a collective increase, with Nvidia rising over 1.3% to reach a historical high, peaking at a market capitalization of $3.92 trillion during intraday trading [2] Chinese Stocks - Chinese concept stock Brain Rejuvenation Technology experienced a significant surge, with intraday gains exceeding 170%, leading to multiple trading halts. The stock has increased by 21,300% year-to-date, making it one of the best-performing stocks in the US market for 2025 [3] Economic Indicators - Recent macroeconomic data has alleviated concerns regarding a downturn in the US economy. In June, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, significantly surpassing expectations, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1% [6] - The ISM non-manufacturing PMI for June reported a value of 50.8, above the expected 50.5, indicating continued growth in the services sector. The new orders index also exceeded expectations, coming in at 51.3 [7] - Industrial orders in May saw a month-on-month increase of 8.2%, marking the largest growth since 2014, while factory orders excluding defense rose by 7.5% [7] Bond Market - The strong employment report has led to an increase in US Treasury yields, with the market now anticipating a 93% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in its upcoming meeting [7][8] Oil Market - International oil prices experienced a sharp decline on the evening of July 3, with both WTI and Brent crude oil prices dropping over 1% at one point before recovering slightly [11] - The US Treasury Department announced sanctions against multiple entities involved in facilitating Iranian oil trade, which may impact oil market dynamics [13]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a significant rally, driven by a series of better-than-expected macroeconomic data, alleviating concerns about an economic slowdown [2][11]. Economic Data Summary - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for June showed an increase of 147,000, significantly above expectations, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1% [11]. - The ISM non-manufacturing index for June reported at 50.8, slightly above the expected 50.5, indicating continued growth in the services sector [12]. - Industrial orders in May increased by 8.2%, marking the largest monthly gain since 2014, with non-defense orders rising by 7.5% [13]. Trade Negotiations Summary - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen met with EU negotiators, expressing hope for a principle trade agreement before the upcoming deadline [16]. - Yellen warned that if trade negotiations do not progress, tariffs may revert to previous levels [17]. - The market remains focused on the U.S. Congress's deliberations regarding President Trump's comprehensive tax and spending plan, with a procedural vote passing in the House [21][22]. Stock Market Performance Summary - Major U.S. stock indices, including the Nasdaq and S&P 500, reached all-time highs, with the Nasdaq up 0.97% and the S&P 500 up 0.81% [7]. - Solar stocks showed strong performance, with Sunrun rising over 18% and First Solar increasing over 8% [8]. - Notably, the stock of Brain Rejuvenation Technology surged over 170% in a single day, marking a year-to-date increase of 21,300% [10].

Group 1 - The article highlights the upcoming release of key economic indicators, including the US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for June, Factory Orders data for May, and the final value of Durable Goods Orders for May [1]

周度报告-黄金 市场风险偏好回升，黄金承压下挫 | [Table_Rank] 走势评级： | 黄金：看跌 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 6 | 月 | 29 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★市场综述： 伦敦金跌 2.8%至 3274 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.28%，通胀 预期 2.3%，实际利率降至 1.97%，美元指数跌 1.32%至 97.4，标普 500 指数涨 3.44%，离岸人民币小幅升值，内外价差窄幅波动。 金价回调，一方面是地缘政治风险降温，美国打击伊朗核设施后 加快了伊朗和以色列的停火进程，美国没有朝着深陷战争泥潭的 方向发展，伊朗的回应也非常克制，原油价格基本回吐涨幅，减 少了美国通胀上行风险。一方面是美国经济尚未衰退，美联储维 持按兵不动暂停降息的状态，市场缺乏增量利多，鲍威尔在国会 就半年度货币政策报告作证词，表态鹰派，关税带来的不确定性 和通胀上行风险导致美联储对降息较为谨慎，同时美联储内部的 分歧也在增加，沃勒和鲍曼先后表态支持最快 ...