Group 1: Economic Outlook - A significant increase in pessimism regarding the global economic outlook has been observed among central banks, with a shift from expectations of a soft landing to a belief that stagflation is the most likely scenario [2][3] - Concerns over U.S. policy uncertainty have intensified, with 74% of respondents indicating that the potential impact of the Trump administration's trade and international alliance policies has overtaken geopolitical issues as the primary risk [2] Group 2: U.S. Dollar and Reserve Currency Status - Despite 80% of respondents predicting that the U.S. dollar will remain the world's reserve currency, there is a notable trend towards diversification, with the euro and renminbi gaining attention [4] - Approximately 29% of central banks plan to reduce their investments in U.S. assets in the near future, reflecting a gradual decline in the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [3][4] Group 3: Gold as a Preferred Asset - Gold continues to be a primary target for global central banks, with 52% planning to increase their gold holdings in the coming year, and 67% believing it will be the best-performing asset class by the end of the decade [5][6] - Since the end of 2022, gold prices have surged over 100%, leading to a significant acceleration in gold purchases by central banks, particularly after the freezing of Russian foreign exchange reserves [6][7] Group 4: Concerns Over U.S. Political Environment - Two-thirds of central bank reserve managers express concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, fearing that political interference may undermine its ability to set monetary policy effectively [3] - The political environment in the U.S. is seen as a barrier to investment in dollar assets, with 70% of central banks indicating that it has hindered their investment decisions, a figure that has more than doubled from the previous year [7]

华盛顿的夏夜闷热粘稠，美联储主席鲍威尔在国会山听证席上擦去额角的汗珠。仅仅24小时前，他刚向议员们强调利率调整还需"观望"，话音未落，特朗普 的咆哮已席卷社交媒体："鲍威尔是最差的主席！立刻给我降息2到3个百分点！" 芝加哥商品交易所的交易屏幕在凌晨1点闪烁着冷光：美联储7月降息概率仅21%，而9月启动降息的可能性已飙升至90%以上。 市场刚消化完美联储内部分 裂的信号——两位特朗普任命的官员沃勒与鲍曼意外转向鸽派，暗示7月可能降息；但转眼间十多位官员集体泼下冷水："需要更多数据！" 01 美联储降息博弈，政治阴影下的独立危机 鲍威尔在国会听证会上的表态成为这场风暴的导火索。面对议员质询，他反复强调关税政策使美联储难以预测通胀前景："自二战以来各国都在减少关税， 但如今加征关税规模是特朗普第一任期的六倍，我们必须审慎分析。" 当被问及7月降息可能性时，他罕见松口："降息宜早不宜迟"，却拒绝承诺具体时间 点。 美联储内部裂痕在点阵图上暴露无遗：19位决策者中，7人坚持今年不降息，8人支持降息两次。 分裂程度创十年新高，最常见与次常见预测差距达50基 点。 德意志银行报告指出："这不是历史性不确定性，而是历史性分 ...

彭博宏观策略师Simon White表示，美国财政部倾向于在美债收益率曲线的短端增加融资，这将进一步损害美联 储的独立性，并逐渐让货币政策实质上落入财政掌控之中。美元将成为牺牲品，而美债收益率曲线将变得更加陡 峭。 权力祭坛上的牺牲已然开始。美国财政部长贝森特虽曾抨击前任依靠短期票据填补赤字，但本周他明确表态倾向 于通过短期债务增加融资——这实质上是一种类似量化宽松的财政政策。 尽管这对财政部和市场而言合乎逻辑，但对美联储却绝对不利。美联储可能很快发现，其独立性在实践中已遭到 严重削弱。财政部进一步向短期票据倾斜的发行策略将导致： 其中最后一点影响最为深远。美联储的实际独立性已被侵蚀多年，但短期票据发行激增将进一步剥夺美联储自由 制定政策的能力。结合美国总统更强势的干预，美联储可能面临70多年前《财政部-美联储协议》以来最严重的 附属化危机——该协议曾奠定现代美联储独立性的基石。 通胀时代已不可避免。更多短期国债发行可能导致CPI结构性上升。短期票据作为一年期内的债务工具，比长期 债券更具"货币属性"。下图揭示了关键规律： 为何短期票据具备魔力？首先，与长期国债不同，它们在回购交易中常享受零折扣，允许更高杠杆 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing pressure from multiple fronts, including public criticism from President Trump and unusual signals from Fed officials suggesting potential interest rate cuts [3][6] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is being undermined by political influences, particularly through the weakening of the Labor Statistics Bureau, which affects the reliability of inflation data [3][4] - The current political environment is shifting the focus of monetary policy from economic indicators to trade policies, as indicated by the Treasury Secretary's comments [6][8] Group 2 - The credibility of U.S. inflation data is in question, with nearly one-third of CPI data derived from estimates, leading to potential misguidance in monetary policy [4][6] - The Federal Reserve's role in stabilizing the dollar and the global financial order is at risk due to the U.S. government's fiscal tightening and its impact on statistical capabilities [4] - The ongoing political battle is reshaping the Federal Reserve's identity and operational independence, with implications for its future role in economic management [8]

为什么会这样？因为美联储现在的关注点发生了一些微妙的变化。他们不再仅仅盯着传统的就业和通胀 数字，而是开始花更多心思去琢磨一些"政策实验"带来的影响，特别是贸易和移民政策是如何改变美国 企业的经营和用人决策的。 Timiraos的核心看法是，6月就业报告不太可能动摇美联储今年夏季在利率问题上观望的模式。换句话 说，别太指望7月底的下次会议马上就会降息。 华尔街见闻此前提到，美联储"当红理事"沃勒和"特朗普提名"的美联储金融监管副主席鲍曼最近都表 示，支持最早7月降息。Timiraos指出，大多数美联储官员并未对7月降息的可能性做太多努力。 同时，美联储还面临着巨大的外部压力。美国总统特朗普对美联储主席鲍威尔及其联储同事的施压可以 说已经到了白热化的地步，他甚至公开呼吁鲍威尔辞职。在这样的背景下，美联储的每一步棋都显得格 外谨慎，也格外引人注目。 一份不足以改变观望局面的就业报告 本周四公布的报告显示，美国6月新增非农就业人口14.7万，较华尔街预期多增4.1万，前两个月就业人 口合计上修1.6万；6月私人部门就业人口仅增加7.4万，创去年10月以来最低增幅；6月失业率未如预期 从5月的4.2%升至4.3%，反 ...

Group 1 - COMEX silver prices have increased significantly, currently trading at $37.20 per ounce, with a rise of 1.10% from the opening price of $36.79 per ounce [1][5] - The highest price reached today was $37.24 per ounce, while the lowest was $36.57 per ounce [1][5] Group 2 - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have been raised, with two-thirds of reserve managers expressing worries about political interference affecting monetary policy [3] - Since President Trump took office, his public criticism and pressure on the Federal Reserve have led to a reassessment of the dollar's reliability as a safe-haven asset [3] - Approximately 35% of central banks surveyed believe the U.S. may require allies to convert medium- to long-term debt into ultra-long-term zero-coupon bonds, reflecting concerns over U.S. debt management strategies [4] - Despite these concerns, nearly 80% of respondents expect the dollar to maintain its status as the global reserve currency, with the dollar currently accounting for 58% of global foreign exchange reserves [4] - However, 29% of central banks plan to reduce investments in U.S. assets in the future, indicating a gradual decline in the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [4]

新华社北京7月3日电 继多次要求美国联邦储备委员会降息遭拒，进而威胁替换现任美联储主席鲍威尔后，美国 总统特朗普再次向鲍威尔发难，并要求国会调查鲍威尔。特朗普2日发文说，鲍威尔应立即辞职。 连续"开炮" 特朗普2日在社交媒体上转发关于鲍威尔应被调查的文章，并点评称"'太迟（先生）'应该立即辞职！！！" 特朗普在社交媒体发文截图 据多家媒体报道，特朗普政府当天以"存在政治立场偏差"和"在国会做虚假陈述"为由，要求国会调查鲍威尔，指 控鲍威尔牵头的美联储总部建筑翻新项目存在重大违规嫌疑，称鲍威尔在接受国会相关质询时刻意隐瞒事实、采 取消极态度，应当予以"免职追责"。 尽管特朗普已多次催促美联储降息，美联储公开市场委员会在6月18日结束的货币政策会议上仍决定维持联邦基金 利率目标区间不变。这是其自今年1月以来连续第四次决定维持利率不变。 6月18日，美联储主席鲍威尔在华盛顿出席记者会。新华社记者胡友松摄 鲍威尔7月1日在葡萄牙辛特拉举行的欧洲央行中央银行论坛上重申，美联储对进一步降息的前景保持耐心观望态 度，但不排除在本月会议上降息的可能性，称一切都取决于即将公布的数据。 "我们正在努力实现宏观稳定。"鲍威尔在论坛 ...

金十数据7月3日讯，德意志银行研究部在一项全球金融市场调查中说，只有16%的市场参与者认为美联 储是完全独立的。四分之一的受访者认为政治压力将导致利率下调，指特朗普多次插手美联储政策。与 此同时，58%的人认为它对政策的影响微乎其微。 调查显示，市场认为美联储的独立性面临风险 ...

瑞银资产管理公司全球主权市场策略与咨询主管马克斯•卡斯泰利表示，这些担忧表明，"非常明显"的 是，关税措施改变了储备管理者对美元的看法。 调查称，29%的受访者希望减少对美国资产的敞口，以应对近期的事态发展。然而，在未来一年，25% 的央行表示，在剔除那些希望增加美元敞口的央行后，它们预计将减少美元敞口，略低于过去一年。 卡斯泰利说:"当你问:你认为美元的主导地位真的会发生重大变化吗?答案是否定的。"他补充称，储备管 理者需要时间进行调整。 近80%的受访者预计，美元(目前占外汇储备的58%)仍将是全球储备货币。在未来一年，黄金是最大的 赢家，52%的央行希望增加黄金储备。 卡斯泰利表示，这主要反映出新兴市场央行对制裁风险的担忧，主要涉及存放在美国的黄金。特朗普的 政策也重新引发了德国对其央行黄金储备的质疑，其中一些黄金储备存放在纽约联邦储备银行。 智通财经APP获悉，瑞银资产管理公司周四公布的一项调查显示，三分之二的央行管理者担心美联储的 独立性受到威胁，近一半的官员认为美国的法治可能会恶化到足以严重影响他们的资产配置。 近40家央行中有35%认为，美国可能会要求盟友将长期债务转换为其他工具，如超长期零息债 ...

瑞银调查显示，65%的受访者认为美联储独立性面临风险，47%的人认为风险法治恶化到足以影响资产 配置。 ...