Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing increased downward pressure, with gold and silver prices declining significantly amid reduced trading activity due to traditional holiday closures in major markets and changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate policies [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Market - As of the latest report, spot gold prices fell to $4,941.04 per ounce, down 1.00% for the day, while COMEX gold futures dropped to $4,958.3 per ounce, a decrease of 1.74% [1][4]. - The price of gold faced resistance at the psychological level of $5,000 per ounce, exacerbated by profit-taking from some investors [4][6]. - Following a rapid increase in prices earlier in the year, gold has seen significant volatility, with predictions suggesting it may fluctuate between $4,800 and $5,200 per ounce in the short term [6][7]. Group 2: Silver Market - Spot silver prices reported at $75.06 per ounce, reflecting a daily decline of 2.04%, while COMEX silver futures fell to $74.93 per ounce, down 3.89% [1][4]. - The silver market is also impacted by expectations of a reduction in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, leading to a historical level of price correction, although physical inventory remains low and ETF holdings have not decreased [7]. - Short-term price predictions for silver suggest a range between $65 and $100 per ounce, despite the recent price drop [7]. Group 3: Jewelry Prices - Despite the decline in gold prices, several jewelry brands reported that the price of 24K gold jewelry remains above 1,500 yuan per gram, indicating sustained high retail prices [6]. - Specific prices for gold jewelry from various brands include: - Lao Miao Gold: 1,515 yuan/gram - Chow Sang Sang: 1,520 yuan/gram - Liufeng Jewelry: 1,527 yuan/gram - Chow Tai Fook: 1,529 yuan/gram - China Gold: 1,536 yuan/gram [6].

金丰来关注到，美元连续第二个交易日小幅走强，外汇市场正在重新评估美联储年内降息空间。此前投资者 普遍押注将出现多次降息，但随着通胀与就业数据表现出一定韧性，部分资金开始下调对宽松节奏的预期。 对冲基金近期削减了对美元的看空头寸，显示市场情绪出现阶段性修正。 从利率定价来看，货币市场对未来降息幅度的预期有所收敛。尽管整体仍偏向年内存在一定宽松空间，但若 经济增长维持稳健、核心通胀回落速度缓慢，美联储或维持相对较高的利率水平更长时间。金丰来留意到， 美元此前已经历较长时间的调整，投资者持仓处于低配状态，一旦政策路径出现偏鹰变化，美元可能迎来技 术性反弹。 就业数据的强劲表现也削弱了短期内实施"预防式"降息的必要性。部分机构预计，年中或许存在一次降息窗 口，但随后政策可能趋于观望。这样的节奏意味着市场此前对连续多次降息的押注存在一定修正空间。利率 预期的微调往往会在外汇市场引发连锁反应，尤其是在流动性较为敏感的阶段。 不过，美元的反弹能否持续仍有待观察。过去一年中，美元整体承压，投资者对政策不确定性的担忧曾令指 数创下阶段低点。当前市场关注的焦点集中在未来公布的通胀数据以及美联储会议纪要内容。如果数据再度 偏强，美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar has risen slightly for the second consecutive trading day as forex traders bet against the Federal Reserve implementing three rate cuts by 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Hedge funds reduced some of their short positions on the dollar, as strategists question whether economic data, particularly inflation, can support the scale of rate cuts anticipated by investors [1] - The current pricing in the money market indicates an expected cumulative rate cut of approximately 64 basis points by the end of the year [1]

丹麦 银行分析师Mohamad Al Saraf在一份报告中称，随着美国和欧元区经通胀调整的实际利率之差收 窄，欧元兑美元在未来一年可能会上涨。他称，美联储可能会在6月份再次降息，随后在9月份再次降 息。相比之下，欧洲央行可能会在2026年和2027年全年维持利率不变。他称，不断复苏的欧洲资产市 场，以及随着对美国机构的信心减弱，投资者增加对美元走软风险的对冲，也应会提振该汇率。丹麦银 行预计，欧元将在12个月内从目前的1.1845美元升至1.25美元。 ...

Market Overview - US stock index futures declined amid light trading as investors returned from the Presidents' Day holiday, entering a week with reduced trading hours [1][7] - Concerns over ongoing AI spending and competitive pressures continue to weigh on the tech-heavy Nasdaq index, which saw futures drop by 0.7% [1][9] - European markets opened quietly, with most blue-chip indices rising, including the FTSE 100, which increased by 0.4% [2][8] Currency and Commodities - The US dollar rose to an 11-day high against a basket of currencies, supported by risk-averse capital flows as traders returned from the holiday [3][9] - Gold prices fell below $5,000 per ounce, with New York gold futures down by 2.2% to $4,937.40 [6][12] - Oil prices declined ahead of direct talks between the US and Iran, with Brent crude down by 0.9% to $68 per barrel [5][11] Economic Data and Expectations - Investors are awaiting key economic indicators, including the ADP employment data and inflation figures from the US and Japan, to be released later in the week [1][5] - The market anticipates the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and fourth-quarter economic growth data, which may provide insights into future interest rate cuts [3][9] Stock Performance - The Nasdaq index futures fell by 0.6% in pre-market trading, with most of the "Magnificent 7" tech stocks declining, except for Amazon, which rose by 0.2% [1][7] - The Nikkei index closed down 0.2%, marking its fourth consecutive day of decline, with SoftBank shares dropping by 5.1% [2][7]

美国股市从总统日假期回归后面临多重压力，三大股指期货盘前普跌，市场情绪疲弱源于多重因素交织，包括地缘政治紧张局势加剧，以及科技 股在经历1月下旬暴跌后调整尚未结束，投资者正在评估人工智能影响向科技行业之外扩散的前景。 | 名称 ▼ | 月 ▼ | 最新 | 最高 | 暗 | 涨跌额 ▼ | 涨跌幅 | 时间 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | = US 30 | | 49,486.00 | 49,621.50 | 49,289.60 | -14.90 | -0.03% | 17:00:57 0 | | = US 500 | | 6.821.20 | 6.853.40 | 6.793.90 | -15.00 | -0.22% | 17:00:57 0 | | 트 US Tech 100 | | 24,597.80 | 24,769.90 | 24.488.90 | -134.90 | -0.55% | 17:00:57 (9 | 市场将关注周二的ADP私营部门就业数据、周三美联储1月会议纪要以及美国GDP初值数据，以寻找利率政策潜在转向 ...

黄金回调4910附近做多，止损20个点，目标4995附近。 文/江问樵专业国际市场点评，本人解读世界经济要闻，剖析全球投资大趋势，对原油、黄金、白银等大宗商品 等有深入的研究，以上内容属于个人建议，因网络发文有时效性，仅供参考，风险自担，若您对这种即将选择方 向的行情节奏把握需要更清晰的预判，欢迎关注交流探讨，让我们共同捕捉下一轮行情的启动点。 国内黄金市场因春节休市，国际伦敦金现围绕4908.96美元/盎司震荡，贴合回调4910的做多进场位，消息面与技 术面共振支撑低位布局。消息面来看，美联储降息周期已明确开启，市场预计全年降息75-100个基点，当日美元 指数收于97.0070，走弱态势进一步凸显，削弱美元对黄金的压制力；全球央行连续15个月净购金，我国央行持续 增持筑牢金价底部，叠加春节期间国内黄金消费火爆，节后补涨预期强烈，为金价反弹提供强劲支撑，回调至 4910附近已消化前期获利抛压，进场风险可控。 技术面而言，伦敦金当日最低下探至4849.96美元/盎司，4910处于关键支撑区间内，且周线、月线级别多头趋势 完好，均线呈多头排列，回调后企稳迹象明显。目标位4995附近贴合当日伦敦金最高4990.8 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent rally in U.S. Treasury bonds is driven by expectations of slowing inflation, which may lead the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at least twice this year [1][3] - The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell by 2 basis points to 4.03%, while the two-year yield approached its lowest level since 2022 during light trading in Asia [1] - The weak U.S. CPI data from last week and ongoing deleveraging by quantitative funds in the stock market are contributing to increased demand for bonds [3] Group 2 - The 4% level for the 10-year Treasury yield is seen as a critical support level; if breached, a significant decline in yields is expected [3] - Bond yields in the region, including Australia and New Zealand, also saw slight declines, indicating a broader trend of falling yields [3] - Traders are closely monitoring upcoming U.S. employment data and the minutes from the Federal Reserve's January meeting for clues on potential interest rate adjustments [3]

丹麦 银行分析师调整了对美联储降息时机的预测，预计下一次降息的时间将略晚于此前的预期。他们 在报告中写道："强于预期的1月份就业报告消除了美联储在春季降息的理由，但并未排除之后降息的可 能。"这些分析师目前预计美联储将在6月和9月降息，而不是此前预期的3月和6月。他们预计，届时美 联储会将利率稳定在3.00%-3.25%，并在2026年和2027年期间保持这一水平。 ...

根据Tradeweb的数据，10年期美国国债收益率下跌3.1个基点，至4.024%。 亚洲交易时段，美国国债各期限收益率下跌，因上周五的数据显示1月份通胀减速，市场继续预期美联 储今年将降息。 根据伦敦证券交易所集团的数据，货币市场目前反映了美联储今年将降息约65个基点的预期，市场完全 消化的首次降息时间点预计在7月，而6月降息也仍有可能。 在数据以外的驱动因素方面，丹麦银行分析师指出，在凯文·沃什被提名为下任美联储主席后，投资者 对美联储独立性的担忧有所下降，以及贸易战不确定性有所缓解。 根据Tradeweb的数据，10年期美国国债收益率下跌3.1个基点，至4.024%。 责任编辑：刘明亮 责任编辑：刘明亮 亚洲交易时段，美国国债各期限收益率下跌，因上周五的数据显示1月份通胀减速，市场继续预期美联 储今年将降息。 根据伦敦证券交易所集团的数据，货币市场目前反映了美联储今年将降息约65个基点的预期，市场完全 消化的首次降息时间点预计在7月，而6月降息也仍有可能。 在数据以外的驱动因素方面，丹麦银行分析师指出，在凯文·沃什被提名为下任美联储主席后，投资者 对美联储独立性的担忧有所下降，以及贸易战不确定性有所缓解 ...