Report Title - "Steel and Ore Weekly Report 2025 - 04 - 28: Production Cut Expectations Released, Black Market Oscillates Strongly" [1] Report Main Viewpoints Steel - Price: Spot prices stopped falling and rebounded, while the futures market oscillated strongly [7] - Supply: Blast furnace production resumed beyond expectations, and electric furnace production increased slightly [7] - Inventory: The de - stocking speed of building materials inventory slowed down, and plate inventory followed the same trend [7] - Demand: The month - on - month growth rate of building materials demand slowed down, and plate demand was stronger domestically than internationally [7] - Profit: Blast furnace profits expanded, while electric furnace losses widened [7] - Basis: The basis widened slightly, and it was recommended to take profit on long - short spreads [7] - Summary: Trade conflicts were still stalemated but overall cooled down. Domestic policies were neutral. The industry saw an acceleration in blast furnace resumption and an increase in overall supply. Demand growth slowed down, and inventory de - stocking speed decreased. The market was expected to oscillate. Strategies included reducing short positions before the holiday and looking for short - selling opportunities after the holiday [7] Iron Ore - Price: Ore prices rose slightly, and the futures market rebounded weakly [7] - Supply: Shipments from Australia and Brazil were flat, and arrivals decreased significantly [7] - Demand: Blast furnace production increased, and demand was released beyond expectations [7] - Inventory: Port inventory increased slightly, and downstream inventory changed little [7] - Shipping: Shipping prices both increased [7] - Spread: The futures spread was flat, and the variety spread changed little [7] - Summary: There were rumors of significant crude steel production cuts in China. Supply tightened, demand increased, and port inventory rebounded. The market rebounded weakly due to production cut expectations. A long - term bearish view was maintained, with short positions reduced before the holiday and caution against policy impacts [7] Steel Weekly Market Tracking Price - Last week, rebar futures rebounded weakly, with the main contract rising 0.81% to close at 3101. Spot prices oscillated upwards, with East China rebar at 3190 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/week. Market sentiment improved, and spot trading volume increased [14] Supply - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.33%, up 0.77 percentage points week - on - week and 4.60 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 91.6%, up 1.45 percentage points week - on - week [17] - The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased significantly. Rebar short - process production decreased due to profit issues. The average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 74.93%, down 0.14 percentage points week - on - week and up 9.51 percentage points year - on - year. Capacity utilization was 56.66%, up 0.33 percentage points week - on - week and 6.17 percentage points year - on - year [22][25] - Rebar production decreased slightly by 0.11 tons last week, mainly due to production conversion and maintenance in some provinces. Hot - rolled coil production increased by 3.1 tons to 317.5 tons, mainly in the north due to the resumption of previously shut - down mills [29] Demand - From April 16th to April 22nd, the national cement delivery volume was 352.05 tons, up 4.85% week - on - week and down 22.28% year - on - year. Infrastructure cement direct supply was 188 tons, up 2.73% week - on - week and down 1.05% year - on - year. Terminal demand growth slowed down due to the drag of the real estate sector, while speculative demand increased due to production cut rumors [32] - In March, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 7.7% year - on - year. The downstream capacity utilization of hot - rolled coils decreased due to export tariffs, and market orders were affected [35] Profit - The blast furnace profit rate of steel mills was 57.58%, up 2.60 percentage points week - on - week and 6.93 percentage points year - on - year. The average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace building materials steel mills was 3349 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton week - on - week. The average profit was a loss of 80 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was 25 yuan/ton [40] Inventory - Rebar total inventory decreased by 40.9 tons week - on - week, with a decrease rate of 4.8%. Factory inventory decreased by 6.67 tons, and social inventory decreased in East, South, and North China. It was expected to continue de - stocking in May and start accumulating in June [43] - Hot - rolled coil factory inventory remained unchanged, and social inventory decreased in the South and East but increased in the North. The total inventory de - stocking speed slowed down due to increased supply and decreased terminal orders [46] Basis - The rebar 10 - contract basis was 99, 45 wider than last week. It was recommended to take profit on long - short spreads around 100 and exit all positions before the holiday [53] Inter - delivery Spread - The 10 - 1 spread was - 36, 1 more inverted than last week. The near - month building materials production peaked, and terminal demand growth slowed down. It was not recommended to intervene in the spread trading [56] Inter - variety Spread - The hot - rolled coil to rebar spread was 103 on the futures market, 2 narrower than last week, and 70 in the spot market, 10 narrower than last week. It was at a neutral level, and no trading was recommended [59] Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking Price - Last week, iron ore prices rebounded from a low and then slightly corrected. The main contract rose 1.43% to close at 709. Spot prices also increased, with Qingdao Port PB fines rising 5 yuan to 761 yuan/ton. Steel mills' restocking demand increased, and trading volume expanded [64] Supply - From April 14th to April 20th, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2437.7 tons, up 2.9 tons week - on - week. Australian shipments were 1799.2 tons, up 92.9 tons, and the amount shipped to China was 1574.3 tons, up 98.0 tons. Brazilian shipments were 638.6 tons, down 89.9 tons. The global total shipments were 2925.5 tons, up 17.8 tons week - on - week [67] - The 47 - port iron ore arrivals were 2449.2 tons, down 168.7 tons week - on - week. The weekly average arrivals in April were 2475 tons, up 2.6 tons from March and 35 tons from last April [73] Rigid Demand - The average daily hot metal output of 247 sample steel mills was 244.35 tons/day, up 4.23 tons/day week - on - week, 19.2 tons/day from the beginning of the year, and 15.6 tons/day year - on - year. Demand was expected to remain high next week [76] Speculative Demand - Due to the easing of trade conflicts and the approaching May Day holiday, some traders and steel mills increased their restocking demand. The port iron ore spot trading volume continued to improve [79] Port Inventory - Last week, port inventory increased due to decreased port clearance. The 47 - port iron ore inventory was 14781 tons, up 231 tons week - on - week, 829.44 tons less than the beginning of the year, and 663.11 tons less than the same period last year. It was expected to slightly decrease next week [82] Downstream Inventory - The total inventory of imported sintered powder of 114 new - standard steel mills was 2771.39 tons, down 28.91 tons from the previous period. The total imported ore powder inventory increased by about 20 tons, and the overall change was not significant [85] Shipping - The shipping cost from Western Australia to China was 7.7 dollars/ton, up 0.66 dollars/ton, and from Brazil to China was 19.4 dollars/ton, up 0.57 dollars/ton [88] Spread - The 9 - 1 spread was 26, the same as last week, at a neutral - low level. The 09 contract discount was 76, a relatively high level, narrowing 2 last week. The variety spread trading had no clear direction [90][93]

首先，上周贸易冲突没有明显升级，超跌反弹进程得以延续。近期，国际贸易冲突没有继续升级， 各国与美国的谈判陆续开始。美国政界对于中美贸易问题的态度也较之前有所缓和。受此影响国际股市 展开超跌反弹，A 股市场亦保持了稳健向上的态势，其中部分贸易冲突受损的行业在上周展开了更明显 的估值修复。往后展望，市场或更关注贸易谈判的进展和国内宏观政策的具体落实和推进。此外，本周 是五一小长假之前的最后三个交易日，也是年报和季报的最后披露期，宜根据最新信息分析各行业的景 气趋势并制定应对策略。 上周，两市小幅反弹，成交大幅萎缩。沪指上半周延续了反弹势头，下半周在 30 天均线处遇阻小 幅回落，周五收盘在五天均线附近，需密切关注其得失。深圳市场表现略强，但反弹未能越过 20 天均 线。量能方面，上周两市日均量能在 11000 亿左右，比上周略有增加，但总体处于年内较低水平。上周 市场热点主要集中在汽车、化工等制造业。投资风格方面，中小盘风格涨幅领先。 从市场运行节奏看，沪指在周线箱体中轨线找到支撑，正在展开超跌反弹。沪指于三月中下旬，在 去年四季度的密集成交区间遇到较强技术阻力，开始进入调整。最终在周线的箱体中轨线附近找到支撑 ...

中信证券：在贸易冲突背景下，预计从4月PMI开始，数据层面将逐步反映压力，适时降准降息时点临 近，收益率曲线先牛陡后牛平的概率更大。 ...

Core Viewpoint - 3M is showing underlying progress in its operations, which enhances the stock's upside potential, especially if the trade conflict is resolved [1] Group 1: Earnings Performance - 3M's first-quarter organic sales growth was 1.5%, below the initial guidance of approximately 2.1%, but adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.88 exceeded the guidance of about $1.71 [3] - Management indicated that the company is trending towards the lower end of its full-year organic sales growth guidance of 2% to 3% but sees potential upside in margin and earnings [4][6] Group 2: Operational Improvements - The company launched 169 new product introductions (NPIs) in 2024, a 32% increase from 2023, with 62 NPIs launched in the first quarter alone, and plans to launch 215 NPIs through 2025 and 1,000 over the next three years [9] - On-time in-full (OTIF) delivery improved to 89% from 85.5% in the same quarter of 2024, with a target of 90% by year-end [11] - Operating equipment efficiency (OEE) rose to 58% from 54% in the previous quarter, indicating ongoing potential for value addition for shareholders [12] Group 3: Market Challenges and Outlook - 3M faces headwinds in the auto industry and consumer electronics sectors, with lowered auto build estimates for 2025 posing challenges [13] - Despite these challenges, there is potential for sales upside if the economic outlook improves due to de-escalation of trade conflicts [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of increased tariffs on Chinese imports imposed by President Trump, particularly on American consumers and e-commerce platforms like Amazon, leading to significant price hikes on various products [1][2][4]. Price Increases on E-commerce Platforms - Since April 9, nearly 1,000 products on Amazon have seen an average price increase of 29% due to rising import costs [1]. - SmartScout's analysis indicates that over 800 products are at their highest recorded prices, with a significant portion of sellers being from China [2]. - Amazon's own brand products, such as batteries and USB cables, have also experienced price increases, ranging from a few cents to several dollars [4][5]. Impact on Small and Medium-sized Sellers - Many small sellers, heavily reliant on Chinese suppliers, are struggling to cope with the increased costs and are forced to make significant adjustments [6][7]. - Zulay Kitchen, a small home goods brand, has had to lay off 19% of its workforce and cut advertising spending by 85% due to the challenges posed by tariffs [6]. - The article highlights that small businesses may face severe competition and potential closure if tariffs remain high, as they lack the flexibility to absorb additional costs [7][8]. Supply Chain Adjustments - Companies are attempting to shift their manufacturing to countries like India and Mexico, but this transition may take one to two years, which is unsustainable for many small businesses [6][7]. - The article notes that a significant portion of Amazon sellers (over 70%) source their products from China, making them vulnerable to price increases [9]. Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - There are indications of consumers beginning to stockpile products in anticipation of further price increases [9][10]. - Major retailers like Walmart and Home Depot have expressed concerns to the Trump administration about impending price hikes and supply chain disruptions [8][10]. - The article suggests that the long-term effects of the trade conflict will depend on whether U.S. importers can find alternative sources for their products [7][11]. Competitive Advantage of Chinese Manufacturing - Despite the challenges posed by tariffs, experts assert that China's manufacturing capabilities and supply chain infrastructure remain unmatched and essential for global production [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The core contradiction in the market is between the difficulty of disproving the broad - money expectation and the high uncertainty of the timing of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. This contradiction will not change in the short term, determining that the bond market will remain in a high - level oscillation pattern. In the coming week, the market is mixed with both long and short factors, and there are short - term trading opportunities for both long and short positions. It is recommended to adopt a quick - in - and - quick - out strategy [2][15] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From April 21st to April 27th, treasury bond futures oscillated at a high level. On Monday, with the LPR rate unchanged and the stock market performing strongly, treasury bond futures oscillated downward. On Tuesday, after the tax period, the capital market marginally loosened, and treasury bond futures oscillated upward. On Wednesday, Trump's softened attitude led to an expected decline in future tariff levels, and market risk appetite recovered, causing treasury bond futures to oscillate downward. On Thursday, the expectation of trade - war easing was marginally revised downward; in the morning, treasury bond futures strengthened, but in the afternoon, the broad - money expectation declined slightly, and treasury bond futures oscillated downward. On Friday, in the morning, treasury bond futures oscillated narrowly, and in the afternoon, due to the Politburo meeting policy not exceeding market expectations, treasury bond futures rose rapidly. As of April 25th, the settlement prices of the continuous main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.310, 105.975, 108.805, and 119.820 yuan respectively, changing by - 0.126, - 0.250, - 0.195, and + 0.100 yuan compared to the previous weekend [1][14] 3.1.2 Next Week's View - The market will continue to oscillate with mixed long and short factors. The broad - money expectation is difficult to be completely disproven as the probability of April's manufacturing PMI falling short of expectations is high, but some long - position investors may choose to hold cash during the holiday to avoid trade - related risks. There are trading opportunities for both long and short positions, and the strategy should be quick - in - and - quick - out. Specific strategies include: long - position traders can look for opportunities around the release of PMI data, short - position traders can focus on changes in long - position investors' risk - aversion sentiment; pay attention to the positive - arbitrage opportunities of short - term varieties; wait for the right - hand signal for the curve - steepening strategy; and pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the TS06 - 09 spread [2][15][19] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 70 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 6757.83 billion yuan and a net financing amount of - 802.48 billion yuan, changing by - 1004.24 billion yuan and - 7235.36 billion yuan respectively compared to last week. 47 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 1911.23 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 1625.12 billion yuan, changing by - 94.94 billion yuan and + 387.94 billion yuan respectively compared to last week. 530 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance volume of 9782.40 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 1876.00 billion yuan, changing by + 2693.40 billion yuan and + 1918.30 billion yuan respectively compared to last week [24] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - As of April 25th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.48%, 1.55%, 1.66%, and 1.93% respectively, changing by + 3.39, + 3.74, + 1.14, and + 2.30 basis points compared to the previous weekend. The 10Y - 1Y spread of treasury bonds compressed by 0.93bp to 20.97bp, the 10Y - 5Y spread narrowed by 2.60bp to 11.45bp, and the 30Y - 10Y spread widened by 1.16bp to 26.46bp. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.57%, 1.61%, and 1.69% respectively, changing by - 0.14, + 2.50, and + 1.40bp compared to the previous weekend [28] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - As of April 25th, the settlement prices of the continuous main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.310, 105.975, 108.805, and 119.820 yuan respectively, changing by - 0.126, - 0.250, - 0.195, and + 0.100 yuan compared to the previous weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 40403, 51627, 66295, and 103436 lots respectively, changing by + 3563, - 7758, - 1285, and + 126 lots compared to the previous weekend. The open interests were 142952, 203371, 222757, and 128694 lots respectively, changing by - 3119, - 1582, + 1923, and + 4351 lots compared to the previous weekend [37][40] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - It is recommended to adopt the positive - arbitrage strategy for short - term varieties. The IRR of short - term varieties has been running at a relatively high level. After the capital market gradually loosens at the end of Q1, the cost - performance of the positive - arbitrage strategy has become more prominent. The reasons for the relatively stable positive - arbitrage opportunities in short - term varieties are that although the capital market has marginally loosened, the negative carry problem still exists, and the basis center is difficult to rise. Also, the core trading logic in the market is the broad - money expectation. Once the easing policy is implemented, the short - term varieties have a large potential for supplementary growth, and the logic of going long on short - term varieties is relatively clear. Compared with spot bonds, going long on futures saves more capital. In mid - to - early April, the net basis of TS showed a compression trend [44] 3.3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of April 25th, the inter - delivery spreads of the 2506 - 2509 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were - 0.254, - 0.290, - 0.165, and - 0.270 yuan respectively, changing by - 0.070, - 0.025, - 0.045, and - 0.180 yuan compared to the previous weekend [47] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - This week, the central bank conducted 8820 billion yuan of reverse - repurchase operations in the open market. With 8080 billion yuan of reverse - repurchases maturing, the net reverse - repurchase investment was 740 billion yuan. As of April 25th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.66%, 1.64%, 1.57%, and 1.64% respectively, changing by - 5.29, - 5.67, - 9.30, and - 1.60bp compared to the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase this week was 6.33 trillion yuan, 98.31 billion yuan more than last week, and the overnight proportion was 74.73%, lower than the previous week's level [51][52][54] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the yield of 10 - year US treasury bonds declined slightly. As of April 25th, the US dollar index rose 0.36% to 99.5836 compared to the previous weekend, the yield of 10 - year US treasury bonds was 4.29%, down 5 basis points from the previous weekend, and the yield spread between Chinese and US 10 - year treasury bonds was inverted by 263 basis points [62] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices rose across the board. As of April 25th, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3539.28, 6148.72, and 1656.60 points respectively, changing by + 38.06, + 68.33, and + 13.04 points compared to the previous weekend. Agricultural product prices showed a mixed trend. As of April 25th, the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 20.78, 4.58, and 7.72 yuan/kg respectively, changing by - 0.07, - 0.07, and + 0.24 yuan/kg compared to the previous weekend [66] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - There are short - term trading opportunities for both long and short positions [67]

Core Viewpoint - Economists suggest that the European Central Bank (ECB) will need to take on the responsibility of boosting economic activity in the Eurozone due to ongoing trade tensions and economic challenges [1] Economic Indicators - The April PMI data indicates a further easing of price pressures, which supported the ECB's recent interest rate cut [1] - The combination of low price pressures and weakened economic activity suggests that the ECB may implement additional rate cuts in the future [1] Trade and Fiscal Policy - If current trade conflicts do not resolve, the ECB will be tasked with addressing economic issues within the Eurozone [1] - Germany's announced fiscal stimulus plan and increased defense spending efforts in Europe are expected to take time before significantly impacting economic activity [1]

2025年4月14日-18日 本周盘面盘点 0 | 指数表现 上证指数 收盘3276.73，上涨 1.19% 申万一级行业中,23个上涨,8个下跌。 涨幅前三行业:银行、房地产和综合 跌幅前三行业:国防军工、农林牧渔和计算机 全市场两融业务情况 17 概况 截至4月18日 全市场融资融券余额 较上周减少 18,038.4亿元 54.5亿元 较上周减少 融资余额 17,927.2亿元 55.7亿元 较上周增加 融券余额 1.2亿元 111.3亿元 0 2 行业聚焦 申银万国一级（2021）行业分类中，半数行业净买入额为 正。 1 2 日均成交额 深圳成指 收盘9781.65, 下跌 0.54% 上海市场 4625亿元，环比减少 33.6% 深圳市场 6137亿元，环比减少 30.1% C 行业涨跌 3. 337 行业累计净买入额(万元) 汽车 提供化工 但包含圆 矢约生物 钢铁 美容护理 纺织服饰 环保 轻工制造 商贸零售 建筑材料 有油石化 房地产 建筑装饰 公用事业 传媒 娱灰 机械设备 食品饮料 电力设备 通信 银行 非银金融 计算机 -200,000.00 -100,000.00 0.00 100,00 ...

22日，国际货币基金组织（IMF）大幅下调了对今年和明年的全球经济增长预期，警告称，由于特朗普 的关税政策，全球经济前景可能进一步恶化。 IMF将其对今年全球GDP增长的预测下调至2.8%。这低于其1月份预测的3.3%，将是自2020年以来最慢 的GDP增长速度，也将是自2009年以来的第二差数据。将对明年的增长预期下调至3%，下降0.3个百分 点。 预计美国今年的经济增长率为1.8%，2026年为1.7%，分别下调0.9和0.4个百分点。美国2025年陷入衰退 的概率为40%，去年10月预计为27%。 IMF表示，对于美国而言，贸易冲突将引发供应冲击，推高物价并拖累生产力。对于贸易伙伴而言，更 高的关税将转化为需求冲击，影响产出和物价。值得注意的是，美国关税的实际税率已跃升至一个世纪 以来的最高水平。 IMF：特朗普政策加剧风险，全球经济增长前景堪忧 IMF首席经济学家Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas在简报会上表示： "我们正在进入一个新时代。过去80年来运作的全球经济体系正在被重塑。" 由于特朗普的政策，美国股市、美元和长期美国国债一直动荡不安。近期他公开"叫板"美联储主席鲍威 尔，加剧 ...

首先，贸易冲突的进展仍主导市场短期运行。上周贸易冲突虽然没有明显升级，但是当前高额的关 税，使得全球贸易面临重大挑战，投资者的关注重心逐渐转向其对实体经济的影响。当前国际环境下， 国内积极的宏观经济政策如何进一步推进，成为市场关注的焦点和投资线索。与此同时，国内一季度的 经济数据和上市公司的年报、季报正在进入密集披露期，投资者需要密切关注具体数据是否能够达到市 场的预期。此外，上周美国人工智能芯片的出口政策有进一步收紧的趋势，科技领域的竞争和突围势在 必行，国内科技行业的进展也将很大程度上影响市场的风险偏好。 上周，两市震荡分化，成交大幅萎缩。沪指延续了上周的反弹，总体呈现继续修复的特征。但深圳 市场表现偏弱，周一开盘几乎就是最高点，随后一路小幅回落。量能方面，上周未能延续上周的放量格 局，量能出现了明显萎缩。上周市场热点主要集中在银行地产等低估值行业以及大消费行业。投资风格 方面，大盘蓝筹明显强于中小盘和科技风格。 从市场运行节奏看，沪指在周线箱体中轨线找到支撑，正在展开超跌反弹。沪指于三月中下旬，在 去年四季度的密集成交区间遇到较强技术阻力，开始进入调整。最终在周线的箱体中轨线附近找到支撑 并展开反弹。目 ...