法国一季度经济微增，但仍面临贸易冲击 金十数据4月30日讯，法国经济在年初恢复了增长，但由于全球贸易紧张局势的影响，经济进入了一个 更加艰难的环境，增长动力不足。法国国家统计与经济研究所称，第一季度GDP较前三个月增长了 0.1%。增长完全得益于库存增加，而国内需求停滞不前，贸易也带来了负面影响。总体小幅增长符合 分析师的预期，但当前经济评估尚难反映特朗普关税影响，因为大部分关税是在4月2日才宣布的。美国 贸易威胁引发的动荡已迫使法国政府将今年增长预期从0.9%下调至0.7%，并推出更多支出削减以控制 预算赤字。此前因政治危机导致2025年财政措施推迟实施，加之潜在增税带来的不确定性，已对经济造 成干扰。一季度数据显示企业、家庭及公共部门投资全面下降，出口环比下降0.7%。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，联合包裹(UPS.US)公布了好于预期的2025年第一季度业绩，调整后的收益和收入超 过了分析师的预期。联合包裹公布调整后每股收益为1.49美元，超过分析师预期的1.44美元。该季度营 收为215亿美元，同比下降0.7%，但超过了212.2亿美元的预期。 受航空货运业务增长的推动，该公司美国国内业务收入增长1.4%至144.6亿美元，单件收入增长4.5%， 部分抵消了货运量的下降。国际业务营收增长2.7%，日均运量增长7.1%。 该公司本季度经非GAAP调整后的综合营业利润率为8.2%。该公司的供应链解决方案部门的收入下降了 14.8%，主要是由于Coyote的剥离。该部门的营业利润率为1.7%，按非GAAP调整后的基础计算为 3.6%。 联合包裹首席执行官表示："作为全球物流领域值得信赖的领导者，我们将利用我们的综合网络和贸易 专业知识，帮助我们的客户适应不断变化的贸易环境。" 尽管如此，由于特朗普关税政策给包裹递送市场带来了新的挑战，并给全球经济带来了波动，联合包裹 仍保持谨慎的展望。该公司以当前的经济环境为由，没有更新此前发布的综合全年指引。联合包裹周二 在一份声明中表示，"鉴于目前 ...

印度三月经济报告：全球不确定因素，如贸易紧张局势和地缘政治风险，可能会扰乱供应或导致价格上 涨，或两者兼而有之。 ...

每经记者 蔡鼎 每经编辑 高涵 ④【AMD8亿美元减值损失拖累业绩预期，汇丰下调目标价至70美元】尽管AMD有望达成一季度财务 目标，但美国人工智能芯片出口管制引发的8亿美元减值损失，正持续冲击其未来业绩展望。汇丰银行 最新研报将AMD目标价从90美元大幅下调至70美元，并重申"减持"评级。 ⑤【大摩：美元疲软将支撑美股跑赢全球其他市场】摩根士丹利分析师Michael Wilson表示，美元走软 将支撑美国企业盈利，有助于美国股市跑赢全球其他市场。他指出，企业盈利成长波动性较小以及美国 企业被认为质量更高是支持这一观点的其他理由。 ⑥【特斯拉据称调整Semi量产计划，预计年底开始生产】据外媒，特斯拉Semi电动半挂卡车量产计划 有所调整，预计今年底开始生产，明年提速。报道称，其位于内华达州的新工厂已建成，正在部署生产 线。 ⑦【汇丰一季度税前利润下降25%，宣布30亿美元股票回购】汇丰控股周二公布，今年第一季度税前利 润下降25%至95亿美元，原因是计入了与加拿大和阿根廷的业务处置相关的一次性费用。该行还宣布了 一项30亿美元的股票回购计划。 ⑨【巴克莱下调2025年布油预测，因贸易紧张局势和OPEC+调整生 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "volatile", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride [1][2] 2. Core Views of the Report - On April 28, the US imposed sanctions on three vessels suspected of transporting refined oil to the Houthi armed forces, and large - scale power outages in Europe affected crude oil processing. With the approaching of the May Day holiday, oil price volatility is expected to be high [1] - In May, the reduction of East - West arbitrage arrivals will support the low - sulfur fuel oil market, and high - sulfur fuel oil is also supported by the expected improvement in Middle - East summer power generation demand, but low raw material procurement demand will still exert pressure [2] - In May, asphalt refinery production is expected to increase, and the northern market demand is gradually releasing, but the terminal project start - up rate is still low, and there is room for further improvement in demand [2] - Near the May Day holiday, the downstream polyester yarn sales have a phased increase, and the polyester start - up load remains high before the holiday. However, there are holiday expectations during the May Day holiday, and the PTA and ethylene glycol markets show different trends [2][3][4] - As of April 27, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased. The supply of rubber is advancing, and the downstream holiday days during the May Day holiday are more than last year, with a weak fundamental outlook [3][4] - In May, the supply of methanol is expected to increase, demand will remain stable, inventory will no longer decline, and the basis is expected to weaken [6] - In May, the demand for polyolefins is in the off - season, the downstream start - up slows down, the supply of the light - hydrocarbon route is affected by import tariffs, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [6] - The real - estate construction is entering the off - season, which affects the demand for PVC downstream products. The export may decline, and the PVC price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the basis weakening [7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, the price of crude oil futures declined. The US sanctions and European power outages affected the market. With the approaching of the May Day holiday, investors are advised to pay attention to risks and hold light positions [1] - **Fuel Oil**: The prices of fuel oil futures rose on Monday. The low - sulfur market is supported by the reduction of arbitrage arrivals, and the high - sulfur market is affected by power generation demand and raw material procurement [2] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price rose on Monday. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is gradually releasing but still has room for improvement [2] - **Polyester**: The prices of polyester - related futures rose on Monday. The downstream sales had a phased increase, but there are holiday expectations during the May Day holiday, and the inventory and supply of different products vary [2][3][4] - **Rubber**: The prices of rubber - related futures showed different trends on Monday. The inventory in Qingdao decreased, but the downstream holiday days increased, with a weak fundamental outlook [3][4] - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol is expected to increase in May, demand will remain stable, inventory will no longer decline, and the basis is expected to weaken [6] - **Polyolefin**: The prices of polyolefin futures are in a volatile state. In May, the demand is in the off - season, the downstream start - up slows down, and the supply of the light - hydrocarbon route is affected by tariffs [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The PVC market prices in different regions showed small changes. The real - estate off - season affects downstream demand, and the export may decline, with prices expected to fluctuate at a low level [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on April 29, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and the latest basis rate's quantile in historical data [8] 3.3 Market News - Barclays Bank lowered its 2025 crude oil price forecast by $4 to $70 per barrel and set the 2026 forecast at $62 per barrel, citing trade tensions and OPEC+ production strategy adjustments [10] - The US Treasury Department raised the estimate of the net borrowing scale for the second quarter to $514 billion, higher than the February estimate, due to the failure to raise the federal debt ceiling [10] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1主力合约价格**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [12][14][16] - **4.2主力合约基差**: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt, from 2021 - 2025 [24][26][30] - **4.3跨期合约价差**: The report provides the price difference charts between different contracts of various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA [37][39][43] - **4.4跨品种价差**: The report shows the price difference and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external market, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [55][57][59] - **4.5生产利润**: The report presents the cash - flow and production - profit charts of products like ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [64][66] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [69][70][71]

不过，该行在周一给客户的一份说明中很快强调，反弹势头可能会在几周内消退，因为美国关税的负面影响将在未来几个月开始拖累经济。" 该行的全球市场情报主管Andrew Tyler写道："总体而言，贸易紧张降级交易还有上升空间。"然而，他补充说，"这并不代表市场风险已全部清除。" 周一，美国股市跌宕起伏，标普500指数在午后交易中跌幅高达1%，而技术重仓股纳斯达克100指数的跌幅也达到了1.4%。此前，由于美国总统特朗普吹捧 贸易谈判取得的进展，美国股市创下了2025年以来第二好的一周。 Tyler和他的团队此前对美股"战术性看跌"，他们表示，他们的最新观点与过去的看涨观点不同，因为这主要是基于技术因素，而不仅仅是基本面。 他们写道："仓位轻、流动性低、投资者参与度低，这意味着在没有关税新闻或债券收益率飙升等负面消息的情况下，市场可能会走高。" 摩根大通的交易部门转而战术性地看涨美国股市，预测包括大科技公司盈利和贸易协议公告在内的利好因素将在近期股市溃败后继续提振股市。 Tyler的团队预计，巨型科技公司的财报将为股市带来潜在利好。本周，微软公司、苹果公司、Meta Platforms公司和亚马逊公司等所谓的"七巨头 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by various factors including the strength of the US dollar, easing trade tensions between the US and China, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, which collectively affect the demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices experienced a decline of approximately 0.65% at the start of the week, with the current trading price around $3300.72 per ounce, following a recent peak [1]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may begin to cut interest rates in June 2025, which has implications for gold prices [2]. - Despite a strong dollar and reduced demand for safe-haven assets, the overall outlook for gold remains optimistic due to potential geopolitical risks and trade tensions [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Recent volatility in gold prices has been significant, with a need for traders to adjust stop-loss levels accordingly [3]. - Gold is currently trading within a range of $3260 to $3338, with key support at $3270 and resistance at $3338-3340 [5]. - A breakdown below the $3260-$3265 range could lead to a rapid decline towards the $3200 mark, indicating a potential top for gold prices [3][5]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategies include selling on rebounds near $3338-3340 and buying on dips around $3265-3270, with specific stop-loss levels and target prices outlined [5]. - Emphasis is placed on the importance of risk management and adjusting positions based on market movements [6][7].

Market Overview - Tin prices have shown strong performance, rising over 10% year-to-date, but faced pressure following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by the US in early April [2] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) tin price reached a nearly three-year high of $38,395 per ton on April 2, before sharply declining to $28,925 per ton by April 9, marking a nearly 20% drop within a week [2] - Despite recent volatility, tin prices continue to outperform other metals, supported by ongoing supply challenges [2] Supply Dynamics - LME tin inventories have decreased by over 40% since the beginning of the year, reaching a low of 2,810 tons by the end of April, the lowest level since June 2023 [2] - In contrast, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories have surged over 70% this year, reaching nearly 9,000 tons, the highest level since September of the previous year [2] - Indonesia's refined tin exports in February increased over 100% month-on-month to 3,670 tons, driven by higher demand from major buyers and increased exports to other Asian markets [3][4] Import Challenges - Myanmar's ongoing issues continue to pressure tin ore imports for major consuming countries, with China's imports of tin ore and concentrates in March 2025 dropping 64% year-on-year to 8,322.55 tons [5] - The cumulative import volume for January to March 2025 was 26,900 tons, reflecting a 55% year-on-year decline [5] - Although there are hopes for supply recovery following a recent meeting by Wa State authorities to outline new mining and processing licensing procedures, the timeline remains uncertain [6] Consumption Trends - Global refined tin consumption has started strong this year, with an estimated 8% year-on-year growth in the first two months, driven by robust demand from countries like India and Japan [8] - However, potential risks to domestic and export-driven demand may arise from US tariffs, which could dampen economic momentum [9] Production Outlook - The mining ban in Myanmar is expected to end soon, but the restart of operations faces delays and rising costs, with a recent meeting discussing new mining license applications [10] - Alphamin Resources announced a phased restart of its Bisie mine, which accounts for about 6% of global supply, but has lowered its 2025 tin production forecast from 20,000 tons to 17,500 tons due to increased anti-government activity [10]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade tensions are causing a slowdown in economic growth in Asia, with low-income economies facing particularly severe impacts, although major economies like China have significant domestic demand potential [1][2] Group 1: Economic Growth Forecast - The IMF has revised its economic growth forecast for the Asia-Pacific region to 3.9% for this year, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from previous estimates due to escalating trade tensions and tightening financial conditions [1] - The IMF warns of economic downside risks, citing rising uncertainty, further tightening of financial conditions, and persistent weak external demand as potential factors for more severe negative impacts on the region's economy [1] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - The IMF suggests that Asian economies should pursue structural reforms to enhance domestic demand and create a balanced development model that emphasizes both internal and external demand [2] - The IMF encourages Asian economies to stimulate consumption and boost private investment to foster a more balanced growth pattern [2] - The importance of deepening regional economic integration is emphasized, with significant trade growth potential among Asian economies [2] Group 3: Trade Agreements - The IMF highlights the benefits of clear, stable, and predictable trade environments, advocating for pragmatic and constructive agreements, whether regional, cross-regional, or bilateral, to stimulate growth through exports [2]

张尧浠：金价震荡偏弱调整、待回踩30日线支撑看涨攀升 黄金市场上周：国际黄金冲高回落，收取巨长上影线倒垂见顶形态，对于后市来讲，有着进一步回调的预期，但基本面上，看涨前景仍具动力，故此，如 继续走低，也仍然可再度依托回撤10周均线支撑看涨攀升。不过，日图及4小时级别也有反弹走强的倾向，因而，也仍需留意阻力压制的突破情况。 具体走势上，金价自周初高开于3332.66美元/盎司，在先行走强拉升于周二触及3500美元历史高点后，遇阻回撤，大幅跳水，周三虽一度低开60美金并随 后收复缺口，但多头动力未能再度走强，并再度走低录得当周低点3260.18美元，周四虽受到支撑买盘反弹走强，但也未能突破阻力压制转强，使得周五 仍有卖盘需求，而仍表现走低，最终收于3314.08美元(收价有差别，以自己操作盘为准)，周振幅239.82美元，相对于开盘价收跌18.58美元，跌幅0.56%。 相对于前周收盘价3326.62美元，收跌12.54美元，跌幅0.38%。 影响上，周初受到美元走软以及贸易紧张局势对经济影响的不确定性，特朗普再度催促鲍威尔降息，以及美国将对从东南亚四国进口的太阳能产品加征新 关税等影响，投资者对美国经济的信心再 ...