Economic Growth - The UK economy experienced a slight recovery in August, with GDP increasing by 0.1% after a 0.1% decline in July, aligning with economists' median expectations [1][3] - Manufacturing output rose by 0.7%, exceeding expectations, while the services sector remained stagnant for two consecutive months [1][3] Sector Performance - In the three months leading up to August, the UK GDP grew by 0.3%, indicating potential growth for the third quarter [3] - The manufacturing sector saw growth in 8 out of 13 sub-sectors, with the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector contributing the most at a growth rate of 3% [6] - Despite an increase in retail sales, the services sector failed to expand, with declines noted in wholesale, entertainment, and transportation sectors [6] Trade Dynamics - In August, UK goods imports remained flat, while exports decreased, with a notable decline of approximately £700 million in exports to the United States [7]

Core Insights - According to a recent report by Goldman Sachs, by the end of this year, American consumers are expected to bear 55% of the tariff costs [1] - The report indicates that U.S. businesses may absorb 22% of the tariff costs, but the ultimate burden will shift to consumers as price adjustments take time [1] - The U.S. tariff policy has led to a 0.44% increase in core personal consumption expenditures this year and is projected to raise the inflation rate to 3% by December [1] Consumer Impact - The report highlights that despite claims from President Trump that trade partners bear the tariff costs, U.S. importers are responsible for paying tariffs imposed by U.S. Customs and Border Protection [1] - The cost transfer from businesses to consumers results in higher prices for goods [1] Business Response - Goldman Sachs previously indicated that the share of tariff costs borne by American consumers is increasing [1] - In response to the report, President Trump suggested that Goldman Sachs economists should be replaced, indicating a disagreement with the findings [1]

Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Russia's GDP growth forecast for 2025 down to 0.6%, while maintaining a 1% growth forecast for 2026 [1] - Compared to the IMF's July forecast, the GDP growth prediction for Russia this year has been lowered by 0.3 percentage points [1] - Russia's economic growth was 4.3% last year, and the IMF had previously estimated a 4.1% growth rate for this year in April [1] Group 2 - The adjustment in the GDP growth forecast for this year is attributed to recent data indicating that Russian budget expenditures are concentrated in the fourth quarter of 2024, leading to an increase in the 2024 GDP growth forecast from 4.1% to 4.3% [1] - The IMF predicts that the inflation rate in Russia will reach 9% in 2025, decreasing to 5.2% by 2026 [1] - The unemployment rate in Russia was estimated at 2.5% last year, expected to decrease to 2.4% this year, and is projected to rise to 3.1% in the future [1] Group 3 - The Russian Ministry of Economic Development has also revised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 down from 2.5% to 1%, and for 2026 from 2.4% to 1.3% [2]

德国联邦统计局数据显示，德国9月份消费者价格指数同比上涨2.4%，环比上涨0.2%。同时，调和 消费者价格指数也呈现上升趋势，同比上涨2.4%，环比上涨0.2%。剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后 的核心通胀率为2.8%，涨幅高于整体通胀水平。 （原标题：德国9月份通胀率为2.4%） ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent comments on inflation indicate a serious concern about rising prices, with a specific focus on maintaining the 2% inflation target, which has been a long-standing policy goal since 2012 [3][5][9] Inflation Indicators - The core PCE inflation rate, a key indicator monitored by the Federal Reserve, peaked at over 5% in 2023 but has since decreased to 3.9% as of August [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a decline from 9.1% in June 2022 to 3.7% in September 2023, yet essential items like food, housing, and healthcare continue to rise [5] Market Sentiment and Expectations - Public expectations for inflation remain high, with a survey indicating a 3.6% expectation for the next year, suggesting a lack of confidence in returning to the 2% target [5] - Market reactions to Federal Reserve signals have shown volatility, with the probability of interest rate hikes increasing from 15% to over 30% in early October [7] Monetary Policy Actions - The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%, the highest level in 22 years, which increases borrowing costs for consumers and businesses [7] - The total credit card debt in the U.S. surpassed $1 trillion in Q2 2023, indicating significant financial pressure on consumers [7] Economic Challenges - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma between managing rising debt levels among consumers and businesses and controlling inflation, which remains stubbornly high [9] - The potential for further interest rate hikes or balance sheet reduction could tighten market liquidity, impacting economic growth [11] External Factors - Ongoing trade issues, particularly between the U.S. and China, and rising international oil prices are contributing to inflationary pressures, complicating the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [5][9]

Core Insights - Germany's inflation rate rose to 2.4% in September, the highest level of the year, influenced by increased service prices and a slowdown in the decline of energy prices [1][1][1] Inflation Data - Food prices in Germany increased by 2.1% year-on-year in September, while energy prices decreased by 0.7% [1][1] - The core inflation rate, excluding food and energy, was recorded at 2.8% for the month [1][1] - Service prices saw a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, surpassing the previous two months' rate of 3.1% [1][1] Economic Commentary - The head of the Federal Statistical Office noted that after a continuous decline since the beginning of the year, the inflation rate has risen for the second consecutive month [1][1] - The Federal Ministry of Economics and Energy indicated that the service sector remains the primary driver of price increases in Germany, with expectations that the inflation rate will remain slightly above 2% by the end of the year [1][1][1] Eurozone Context - The Eurozone's inflation rate for September was reported at 2.2%, up from 2% in August, remaining above the European Central Bank's medium-term target [1][1]

Core Insights - The Australian National Bank's report indicates a gradual recovery in the Australian economy, although businesses remain cautious about future prospects [1][2] Group 1: Business Confidence and Conditions - The business confidence index rose by 3 points to 7, while the business conditions index remained unchanged at 8, marking the highest level since mid-2024 but only slightly above the long-term average [1][2] - The assessment of trade conditions improved by 3 points to 16, exceeding the historical average by 4 points, while profitability increased by 1 point to 6 [1][2] - Employment indicators fell by 2 points to 3, suggesting that businesses are not increasing hiring in response to changes in business conditions [1] Group 2: Future Outlook and Investment - The report highlights several reasons for businesses' cautious stance, including a decline in forward orders by 3 points in September, indicating that improvements in the trade environment may not be sustainable [2] - Businesses are reportedly holding relatively high inventory levels, with the inventory index rising by 4 points to 10, the highest level in recent times [2] - Capital expenditure indicators decreased by 2 points to 7, suggesting that a sustained improvement in the business environment is necessary to encourage significant investment increases [2] Group 3: Inflation and Cost Pressures - The survey results indicate a slight slowdown in labor cost growth, while input costs have risen, leading to a 0.8% increase in product prices over three months [2] - This price increase may push the annual inflation rate above the Reserve Bank of Australia's target range of 2-3% [2]

Core Insights - Germany's inflation rate rose to 2.4% in September, the highest level of the year, influenced by an increase in service prices and a slowdown in the decline of energy prices [1][1][1] Inflation Data - Food prices in Germany increased by 2.1% year-on-year in September, while energy prices decreased by 0.7% [1][1] - The core inflation rate, excluding food and energy, was recorded at 2.8% for the month [1][1] - Service prices saw a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, surpassing the previous two months' rate of 3.1% [1][1] Economic Commentary - The head of the German Federal Statistical Office noted that after a continuous decline since the beginning of the year, the inflation rate has risen for the second consecutive month [1][1] - The German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy indicated that the service sector remains the primary driver of rising prices, with expectations that the inflation rate will remain slightly above 2% by the end of the year [1][1][1] Eurozone Context - The Eurozone's inflation rate for September was reported at 2.2%, an increase from 2% in August, remaining above the European Central Bank's medium-term target [1][1]

Core Points - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak at the National Association for Business Economics, marking his first public appearance since the September FOMC meeting, with investors keenly awaiting insights on interest rate policy direction [1] - The Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% during the September meeting, with nearly unanimous support, except for new board member Stephen Miran, who advocated for a 50 basis point cut [1] - There is a notable division among Fed officials regarding future rate cuts, with one faction advocating for further reductions this year, while another believes the current stance is sufficiently accommodative, adding uncertainty to future policy paths [1][2] Economic Context - The Fed's dual mandate of achieving maximum employment and price stability is currently challenged by competing concerns, as signs of a cooling labor market suggest potential vulnerabilities in employment, while inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target for the past five years [2] - Powell's focus on the labor market could indicate room for one or two more rate cuts before year-end, whereas an emphasis on persistent inflation would raise the threshold for further easing, suggesting a pause in rate cuts at the upcoming October meeting [3] Data Challenges - The speech occurs amid a government shutdown that has halted the release of key employment and inflation reports, complicating the Fed's ability to make informed policy decisions [1][3] - Investors currently perceive a 97% probability of another rate cut at the October meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool, highlighting market expectations despite the lack of new economic data [3]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs economists report that by the end of this year, U.S. consumers will bear more than half of the costs associated with President Trump's tariff actions, specifically 55% of the tariff costs [1] - The report indicates that U.S. businesses will absorb 22% of the tariff costs, while foreign exporters will take on 18% through price reductions, and 5% will be avoided [1] - The economists note that due to the time required for price adjustments, U.S. businesses may currently be shouldering a larger share of the costs [1] Economic Impact - Tariffs have already caused a 0.44% increase in core personal consumption expenditure prices in the U.S. this year, with potential inflation rates rising to 3% by December, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1] - Goldman Sachs has revised its expectations regarding the impact of tariffs, previously estimating that U.S. consumers would bear about 22% of the costs as of June, but now projecting this figure to rise to 67% [2] Political Response - The White House spokesperson stated that while U.S. consumers may face a transitional period due to tariffs, the ultimate cost will be borne by foreign exporters [1] - In response to the tariffs, businesses are diversifying and relocating supply chains, including moving production back to the U.S. [1] - President Trump has criticized Goldman Sachs for their previous predictions regarding market reactions and tariffs, asserting that they have been wrong in their assessments [3]