市场探底回升，成交量较上周五有所下降。截至收盘，上证指数涨0.05%，深证成指涨0.37%，创业板 指涨0.31%。全市个股涨多跌少，全市上涨个股超4200只。 针对市场近期的调整，东吴证券指出，本轮调整是外围因素与内生压力共同作用的结果： 一是全球流动性紧缩之下，A股难以"独善其身"。 二是海外"AI泡沫"焦虑、科技板块下跌，波及A股。随着北美大厂AI资本开支的步伐变得更为激进，而 AI对经济及企业盈利的拉动效应尚未充分展现，市场对于资本开支向EPS传导的评估更为审慎，开始关 注"AI泡沫"风险。 盘面上，市场热点良性轮动，个股呈现普涨态势，军工、中船系等再度走强，久之洋、中船防务等封 板；商业航天概念集体上涨，上海港湾、航天动力等涨停；AI应用端集体爆发，省广集团多股涨停； 地产股再度拉升，世联行封板。此外，大消费、量子科技、风电等方向均有所表现。 跌幅方面，海南自贸板块震荡下挫，海马汽车盘中一度触及跌停；锂资源、能源金属持续回调，盛新锂 能、国城矿业等跌停；光模块等算力硬件股震荡回落，工业富联一度触及跌停创2个月以来新低，"易中 天"跌幅明显。 其它热门个股方面，合富中国、平潭发展均走出跌停2连板。 展 ...

人民财讯11月24日电，华安基金认为，美股AI泡沫的担忧持续发酵，波动率提升下避险资金或涌向黄 金。伴随着AI相关企业资本开支的大幅增长、市值的屡创新高以及AI公司之间的相互投资，市场对AI 存在泡沫的担忧明显上升。若最终AI发展的成果和收益无法匹配前期巨大的投入，或将对企业造成较 大负担，考虑到近期美股波动率VIX指数亦走高，反映市场避险需求激增。 ...

交易员对今年股市涨势能否延续的担忧正在加剧。尽管标普500指数今年仍上涨逾12%，但投资者正不 惜成本锁定收益，尤其是在科技股领域。景顺QQQ信托ETF的期权成本相对于SPDR标普500 ETF信托已 升至2024年8月以来的最高水平，显示市场对冲情绪明显升温。 标普500指数刚刚录得6月以来最大单周波动区间。英伟达的亮眼业绩以及黄仁勋对人工智能并非泡沫的 保证，未能平息投资者的不安。与此同时，比特币自上月创下历史高点以来已下跌约三分之一，市场对 美联储降息步伐的担忧也在加剧。 上周四科技股的波动尤为剧烈。英伟达财报发布后的早盘涨势迅速逆转，当日市场出现4月8日以来最剧 烈的峰谷波动。VIX恐慌指数收于4月以来最高水平，凸显市场紧张情绪。 抛售背后的谜题 对冲基金Oraclum Capital首席投资官Vuk Vukovic在短期期权市场保持活跃。他表示，上周四这样的市场 压力时刻"对我们有利，因为当你买入波动率而波动率爆发时，就能获得最高回报"。他在上周五开玩笑 说： "昨天在高点买入看跌期权的人今天可以退休了。" Vukovic指出，期权卖方直到上周五才入场，推动VIX走低。他预计圣诞节前波动率将再次收窄 ...

2025年11月24日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周五贵金属价格震荡，伦敦金冲高回落依旧未能站稳 4100 美元。 基本面：美联储"三把手"纽约联储行长威廉姆斯称"近期"仍存在降息空间，市场预期 12 月降息概率盘中 突破 70%美国劳工统计局取消 10 月 CPI 发布，11 月 CPI 12 月 18 日发，不含环比涨幅；美国 11 月标普全 球综合 PMI 初值为 54.8，四个月来最高，服务业 PMI 增长加快，制造业 PMI 增长放缓。欧元区 11 月服务业 PMI 初值 53.1 创一年半新高，但制造业 PMI 初值 49.7，意外重回荣枯线下方，德法制造业双双恶化；日本 批准 21.3 万亿日元经济刺激计划，为疫情以来最大规模。国内黄金 ETF 持续流入，COMEX 黄金库存 1148.7 吨，减少 0.1 吨；上期所黄金库存 90.4 吨，维持不变；伦敦 10 月黄金库存 8926 吨，增加 18 吨；上期所白 银库存 519 吨，减少 16 吨；金交所白银库存上周库存 774 吨，减少 47 吨，COMEX 白银库存 14327 吨，减 少增 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia reported third-quarter results that significantly exceeded market expectations in terms of revenue, profit, and outlook for the next quarter, while CEO Jensen Huang dismissed the "AI bubble" narrative [1] Group 1: Nvidia's Performance - Nvidia's third-quarter revenue and profit were notably higher than market forecasts, leading to investor optimism [1] - CEO Jensen Huang defended the company's position against claims of an AI bubble [1] Group 2: Criticism from Michael Burry - Michael Burry expressed skepticism about Nvidia's third-quarter performance, suggesting that the company's accounting practices may misrepresent profitability [1] - Burry criticized the notion that longer GPU lifespans justify extended depreciation periods, arguing that usage does not equate to profitability [1] - He provided an analogy involving airlines retaining old planes to illustrate that increased usage does not guarantee financial success [1] Group 3: AI Demand Concerns - Burry warned that the actual end-user demand for AI is significantly lower than reported by major tech companies [2] - He accused several companies, including Microsoft and Nvidia, of questionable revenue recognition practices, implying that reported growth may not reflect true market demand [2] - Burry characterized the funding for AI growth as largely coming from dealers, creating a self-reinforcing cycle rather than sustainable adoption [2] Group 4: Burry's Investment Strategy - Michael Burry is known for his contrarian investment approach and has previously achieved significant profits by shorting the market during the 2008 financial crisis [3] - After a period of absence from the public eye, Burry returned to express concerns about AI-driven market valuations and disclosed short positions in Nvidia and Palantir [3] - Recently, Burry announced the liquidation of his fund and withdrew registration from the SEC, hinting at a potential transition to a family office structure [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on November 24, 2025. Index futures, gold, silver, copper, alumina, nickel, tin, rebar, methanol futures are likely to oscillate strongly; ten - year Treasury bond futures will probably oscillate widely; aluminum, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, PVC, and glass futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate; thirty - year Treasury bond futures, coking coal, soda ash, crude oil, fuel oil, PTA, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and natural rubber futures are likely to oscillate weakly; lithium carbonate futures will probably oscillate weakly [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Index Futures**: On November 24, 2025, index futures are likely to oscillate strongly. For IF2512, resistance levels are 4457 and 4511 points, and support levels are 4400 and 4369 points; for IH2512, resistance levels are 2968 and 2994 points, and support levels are 2979 and 2963 points; for IC2512, resistance levels are 6872 and 6970 points, and support levels are 6700 and 6622 points; for IM2512, resistance levels are 7116 and 7211 points, and support levels are 6956 and 6900 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract T2512 is likely to oscillate widely on November 24, 2025, with support levels at 108.36 and 108.31 yuan, and resistance levels at 108.54 and 108.59 yuan. The thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support levels at 115.4 and 115.2 yuan, and resistance levels at 116.0 and 116.1 yuan [2][3]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On November 24, 2025, the gold futures main contract AU2602 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack resistance levels of 939.6 and 945.5 yuan/gram, with support levels at 930.0 and 926.9 yuan/gram. The silver futures main contract AG2602 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack resistance levels of 1244 and 12163 yuan/kg, with support levels at 11680 and 11649 yuan/kg [2][3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper, alumina, nickel, and tin futures are likely to oscillate strongly; aluminum futures are likely to oscillate and consolidate. For example, the copper futures main contract CU2601 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack resistance levels of 86500 and 86800 yuan/ton, with support levels at 85600 and 85200 yuan/ton [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: Crude oil, soda ash, fuel oil, PTA futures are likely to oscillate weakly; lithium carbonate futures are likely to oscillate weakly. For example, the crude oil futures main contract SC2601 is likely to oscillate weakly and test support levels of 441 and 433 yuan/barrel, with resistance levels at 450 and 453 yuan/barrel [3][4]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil futures are likely to oscillate weakly [4][6]. 3.2 Macro News and Trading Tips - **International Events**: The 20th G20 Leaders' Summit was held in Johannesburg, South Africa. China announced relevant initiatives, and leaders had bilateral meetings. The US is promoting a peace plan for the Russia - Ukraine conflict, but negotiations have not reached an agreement [8][9][13]. - **Domestic Economic Data**: From January to October, the actual use of foreign capital in China was 621.93 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. In October, the total social electricity consumption was 857.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [10][12]. - **Domestic Policies**: The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission will support enterprises in Xiongan New Area. The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development promotes urban renewal and urban management in communities. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology conducts typical case collection [10]. 3.3 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Index Futures**: On November 21, 2025, index futures showed a weak downward trend. Multiple factors such as the decline in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and concerns about the AI bubble led to the recent market correction, but Chinese assets are still expected to have a "slow bull" [18][20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On November 21, 2025, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, and the short - term downward pressure on the ten - year Treasury bond futures slightly increased [43]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On November 21, 2025, gold and silver futures showed a downward trend. The short - term downward pressure increased, but in November, they are expected to oscillate strongly [49][55]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Most base metal futures showed a downward trend on November 21, 2025, with different degrees of short - term downward pressure [60][64][72]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: Energy and chemical futures showed different trends on November 21, 2025. For example, lithium carbonate futures dropped significantly, and the short - term downward pressure increased [80]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Agricultural futures showed a weak downward trend on November 21, 2025, with different degrees of short - term downward pressure [125][127][130].

策 略 研 究 策 3、 市场情绪走弱或难在短期扭转，建议控制仓位等待布局机会。 4、 财政发力或是未来支撑美国经济的主要手段。 5、泛能源的配置更多是应对美国 AI 投资预期过热，建议以中短 期交易为主。 6、 长期看好保险，反内卷行业，中概互联网，军贸。 2025 年 11 月 24 日 防御当先，静候良机——周观点 团队成员 投资要点： 近期观点 略 定 期 报 告 1、 强非农和联储放鸽的组合不合逻辑，交易降息致使美国下跌 或是未来一个季度的常态。 2、 科技革命进程或难免"泡沫破灭"时刻，重点是关注科技对 于需求是否构成正向作用。 分析师： 李浩(S0210524050003) lh30530@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 李刘魁(S0210524050006) llk30550@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、尝试寻找新合力——2025.11.17 2、美国政府最长停摆结束——2025.11.17 3、市场状态高频数据库——11 月第 2 周—— 2025.11.16 风险提示 全球制造业复苏受阻；中美关系改善不及预期；美国地产市场不 健康 证 券 研 究 报 告 华福证券 诚信专业发现 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains its core judgment on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path despite the delay in the September employment report, predicting a 25 basis point rate cut in December, followed by two additional cuts in March and June 2026, ultimately lowering the federal funds rate to a terminal level of 3%-3.25% [1][2] Monetary Policy Outlook - The upcoming December 10th rate cut decision is almost certain, with market focus shifting from "whether to cut" to the policy path and economic landing shape post-cut [2] - Economic growth in the U.S. is expected to accelerate to a range of 2%-2.5% in 2026, with the unemployment rate stabilizing slightly above the September level of 4.44% [2] Inflation Outlook - Goldman Sachs sees limited upside risks for further rate cuts based on optimistic interpretations of recent inflation data, with core PCE inflation remaining around 2.8% in September [3] - The baseline scenario anticipates a slowdown in the easing pace in the first half of 2026, with potential pauses in January and additional cuts in March and June to ensure rates return to neutral levels [3] Labor Market Concerns - Despite a strong non-farm payroll increase of 119,000, there are growing downside risks in the labor market, with potential employment growth trends estimated at only 39,000 [4] - The unemployment rate for college graduates aged 25 and older has risen by 1 percentage point to 2.8%, while the rate for graduates aged 20 to 24 has climbed to 8.5%, indicating a deterioration in job opportunities for this key demographic [4] - The impact of AI and efficiency improvements may disproportionately affect consumer spending, potentially prompting the Fed to consider more rate cuts in the future [4] Market Valuation - Despite the absence of excess spending from a fundamental perspective, the stock market has already priced in these expectations, leading to forecasts of lower returns for U.S. equities over the next decade compared to historical averages [5]

截至2025年11月24日 10:12，中证500质量成长指数上涨0.20%，成分股滨江集团上涨4.64%，中材国际上涨3.06%，三美股份上涨2.61%，海信视像上涨 2.58%，首旅酒店上涨2.48%。500质量成长ETF(560500)上涨0.09%。（以上所列示股票为指数成份股，仅做示意不作为个股推荐。过往持仓情况不代表基金 未来的投资方向，也不代表具体的投资建议，投资方向、基金具体持仓可能发生变化。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。） 据Wind数据显示，流动性方面，截至11月24日 10:12，500质量成长ETF盘中换手0.14%，成交60.89万元。 消息方面，上周，避险情绪主导全球金融市场，全球主要股市悉数下跌，其中科技股波动幅度显著。在这一传导效应下，A股市场同样经历调整，上证指数 失守3900点。对于近期市场的波动，券商研报分析认为，海外"AI泡沫"焦虑、美联储降息预期回落、资金情绪趋于谨慎等因素共振，引发了全球主要市场联 动下挫。在这一背景下，A股市场也难以完全避免冲击。但支撑本轮中国股市上涨行情的基本面因素并未出现变化。 华泰证券发布A股策略研报称，近期AI叙事起争论、流动性有所收紧构成了市场 ...

Group 1 - The recent adjustment in the A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index drop nearly 4% in a week, with the ChiNext Index falling over 6%, affecting more than 4,900 stocks [1][3] - External factors such as the cooling of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, renewed debates over the AI bubble, and geopolitical tensions have contributed to the market downturn, impacting global risk assets [3] - Despite the market's decline, institutional investors have been actively buying, with over 70 billion yuan net inflow into stock ETFs in the past week, indicating confidence among smart money [3] Group 2 - Current valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index is around 13.6 times, approaching a "reasonable" level, suggesting that further declines could present buying opportunities [3] - Market sentiment indicators have dropped to yearly lows, and the financing guarantee ratio has returned to early August levels, indicating that panic selling may have subsided [3] - Long-term investors are advised to focus on undervalued assets, particularly in sectors like domestic computing power, innovative pharmaceuticals, and industries benefiting from supply-demand improvements due to "anti-involution" policies [4] Group 3 - Companies that can leverage China's manufacturing advantages for global pricing power are expected to thrive, with predictions that 2026 will be a significant year for Chinese enterprises going global [4] - High-dividend assets are recommended as a stabilizing force in a volatile market, with attention on cyclical dividends (coal, chemicals) and potential dividends (railways, environmental protection) [4] - Analysts predict a "low volatility slow bull" market for A-shares in 2026, with Goldman Sachs estimating a 30% upside for the Chinese stock market by 2027 [4]