1. Marex分析师Edward Meir：美联储在利率问题上的总体立场略微偏鹰派，他们并不真正热心支持降 息。短期来看，金价可能有点超买，可能会进一步回撤至3600美元关口。 2. 澳新银行分析师：投资者 为降息周期的开始而欢呼。然而，鲍威尔的言论被认为不像市场预期的那样温和，抑制了金价的上涨。 3. 三菱日联金融集团分析师Soojin Kim：投资者认为美联储的指引不如预期鸽派。美联储谨慎表态推高 美元并打压金价。 4. XTB分析师Kathleen Brooks：隔夜美联储会议没有带来鸽派意外，因此金价回调在 意料之中，尤其是在降息50个基点的呼声稀少的情况下。 5. 独立金属交易员Wong Tai：鲍威尔称这是 风险管理式降息，引发了金价获利了结，我预计不会出现异常严重的回调。 6. "新债王"冈拉克：预计 金价将从当前水平再上涨340美元，涨幅约为9.2%。到今年年底，金价几乎肯定会收于4000美元以上。 7. 中信证券：预计在本轮降息交易中美元可能维持弱势状态，黄金仍有不错表现。 ...

美联储的利率决议即将出炉，这是近期市场最重要的一个宏观事件，全球的资本市场都在屏息以待。目 前降息基本上是一个板上钉钉的事情，但是幅度、后续的路径，以及会议会释放什么样的信号才是市场 非常关注的一个核心。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, marking its first reduction in nine months, bringing the target range to 4% to 4.25%, the lowest level in nearly three years. However, Chairman Powell characterized this cut as a "risk management" move, indicating uncertainty about future rate cuts [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - Market expectations diverge from the Federal Reserve's forecasts regarding the pace and depth of future rate cuts. The Fed's median prediction suggests two more cuts this year, while Wall Street anticipates a more sustained reduction, expecting two additional cuts in the remaining meetings of the year and two more in the first half of 2026 [3][4]. - The consensus among market traders and economists indicates a belief that there will be two more cuts this year, with a split within the Fed regarding the timing and number of cuts in 2026 [4][6]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Market Reactions - The differing expectations stem from contrasting confidence in the economy's "soft landing." Powell's hawkish signals suggest a cautious approach, while the market is more concerned about economic data, anticipating that the Fed may need to act more quickly [6][8]. - Following the announcement, financial markets exhibited confusion, with mixed reactions in stock indices and a volatile response in the bond market, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's signals [9].

哎，这盼星星盼月亮的，终于降息，可算是来了，虽然就那么一点点，那个劲头，就像是憋了很久的气，终于放出来了一样，感觉上，就是宽松要开始了， 这可是大事儿。 你看国外那边，美股那个折腾，上蹿下跳的，跟过山车似的，也不知道搞什么飞机，但是咱们的中概股，可争气，逆势涨啊，涨得那个叫欢，是不是说明现 在风水轮流转了，感觉好像真是东边起来，西边落下，这个趋势，有点意思。降息，对于港股，那是直接的好处，明摆着的事儿，可是吧，我个人，说实 话，对港股，还是有点担心，我这也就是随便说说，大家听听就好，可别当真啊，我可不负责给你投资建议。 这明牌的利好，大家也都看到了，但是股市这东西，有时候，你还真得反着来想，要小心啊，之前9月份的时候，也来过这么一出，利用利好消息割韭菜， 那可真是，想想都后怕，这次，会不会又来这么一下子，可说不准，所以，要小心市场跟你玩反套路，美联储那边，估计今年还能降两次息，加起来有个50 个基点，重点不是降多少，而是这个宽松的周期，总算是开始了，A股想慢点牛，可是吧，白酒，银行，这些家伙，压着指数，不让涨，所以，只能是局部 的热闹，科技股最近表现是不错，但是吧，大家都在说好，都在往里冲，这种"一致预期"啊 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle, with some investors expecting this easing policy to continue until 2026, potentially lowering rates to around 3% [3] - Historical trends indicate that after similar rate cuts in 2024, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield may rise instead of fall, influenced by oil price fluctuations, Trump's economic policies, and inflation concerns [3] - Current economic conditions show persistent inflation and emerging concerns in the job market, with core PCE inflation projected to rise by 3.1% this year and remain at 2.6% in 2026, exceeding previous expectations [3] Group 2 - The key resistance level for gold futures is identified between 843 CNY/gram and 860 CNY/gram, while the important support level is between 826 CNY/gram and 850 CNY/gram [4] - Gold futures are currently trading at approximately 832.80 CNY/gram, reflecting a decline of 0.74%, with a high of 839.00 CNY/gram and a low of 827.00 CNY/gram observed [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, are easily affected by macro - sentiment, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside potential [3]. - Stainless steel prices show signs of stopping falling and rebounding due to nine - week consecutive inventory decline and rising material costs. The demand situation during the consumption peak season needs to be further observed [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On September 17, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 122,580 yuan/ton and closed at 121,790 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.81% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 90,734 (- 13,858) lots, and the open interest was 58,829 (- 7,709) lots. The contract showed a volatile downward trend, pressured by the market's cautious sentiment before the Fed's interest - rate decision and the rising US dollar index [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The market remained calm with stable prices. Philippine mines had firm quotes, while downstream iron plants maintained cautious procurement due to losses. In Indonesia, the supply was loose, the September (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price increased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars, and the domestic trade premium was +24 (range: +23 - 24). The ore end was bullish on the subsequent premium due to the rising nickel - iron price [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 123,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 940 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was generally average, and the premiums and discounts of refined nickel brands were mainly stable, with some in a discount state. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 26,141 (- 26) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 228,468 (+2,034) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Mainly conduct range operations. - **Others**: No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options are provided [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On September 17, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2511 opened and closed at 12,935 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 170,126 (- 60,650) lots, and the open interest was 127,750 (- 4,171) lots. The contract showed a volatile and weak trend, fluctuating between 12,885 - 12,995 yuan and failing to break through the 13,000 - yuan mark, reflecting the intensified game between the peak - season expectation and weak actual demand [3]. - **Spot**: Affected by the weakening of the futures market, downstream buyers remained on the sidelines due to the "buy on rising, not on falling" sentiment. Although some traders lowered their quotes, actual transactions were light. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were 13,250 (- 50) yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 275 - 575 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 954.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Neutral. - **Others**: No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options are provided [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The Fed's interest rate cut process has entered a new stage, and emerging markets are expected to迎来 stronger upward momentum. The current market is still dominated by liquidity. There is a need for asset allocation adjustment among foreign investors, institutions, and residents in the domestic market. There is room for further increase in the equity market, and funds actively buy during the correction phase. The market is judged to maintain a bullish pattern. The technology sector and themes related to "anti-involution" continue to be active, and the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indices are expected to continue their relatively strong performance [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestically, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce policies and measures to expand service consumption. China will select about 50 pilot cities for new consumption formats, models, and scenarios, introduce a series of policy documents, promote the application of artificial intelligence in service consumption, and use structural monetary policy tools to increase capital supply in the consumption field. During the consumption month, more than 25,000 cultural and tourism consumption activities will be carried out across the country, and more than 330 million yuan in consumption subsidies will be issued. Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00%-4.25%, the first rate cut this year and the first since a nine-month pause. Powell said that employment growth has slowed, the risk of employment decline has increased, the labor market is less active than before and slightly weak; inflation has recently risen and is still slightly high; commodity inflation has accelerated, and the decline in service inflation continues; the risk of persistent inflation needs to be managed, and the inflation risk tends to the upside. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October is expected to exceed 90% according to US interest rate futures [1]. Spot Market - A-share indices closed with an upward trend. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to close at 3876.34 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.95%. In terms of industries, most sector indices rose, with the power equipment, automobile, coal, and home appliance industries leading the gains, while the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, commerce and trade retail, and social service industries leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.4 trillion yuan on the day. Overseas, the three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.57% to 46018.32 points [2]. Futures Market - In terms of basis, this Friday is the delivery day of the current-month contract, and the basis tends to converge. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume of stock index futures increased, and the open interest of IH increased [2]. Strategy - The Fed's interest rate cut process has entered a new stage, and emerging markets are expected to迎来 stronger upward momentum. The current market is still dominated by liquidity. There is a need for asset allocation adjustment among foreign investors, institutions, and residents in the domestic market. There is room for further increase in the equity market, and funds actively buy during the correction phase. The market is judged to maintain a bullish pattern. The technology sector and themes related to "anti-involution" continue to be active, and the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indices are expected to continue their relatively strong performance [3]. Macroeconomic Charts - Include charts such as the US dollar index and A-share trends, US Treasury yields and A-share trends, RMB exchange rate and A-share trends, and US Treasury yields and A-share style trends [10][9]. Spot Market Tracking Charts - The table shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indices on September 17, 2025, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, along with their daily changes [12]. Futures Market Tracking Charts - The table shows the open interest and trading volume of stock index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM), as well as the basis (futures - spot) and inter - delivery spread of stock index futures [15][36][44].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, marking its first reduction in nine months and the first since Trump's "second term" began [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The interest rate is now set between 4.00% and 4.25%, with expectations of further cuts in the next 1 to 1.5 years, indicating a return to a low-interest-rate environment [3][4]. - The decision to cut rates is influenced by subpar employment data, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, despite inflation remaining above the 2% target [3][4]. - The Fed's pause in rate cuts for nine months was to assess the impact of Trump's tariff policies on inflation [4]. Group 2: Market Implications - The rate cut is expected to positively impact global asset prices, including U.S. stocks, cryptocurrencies, and gold, with at least one more 25 basis point cut anticipated this year [4][5]. - The potential for a faster pace of rate cuts may alleviate the interest rate differential between the U.S. and China, providing more room for China's monetary policy [4][5]. - The Hong Kong dollar, being pegged to the U.S. dollar, will see synchronized rate cuts, while the Chinese yuan may experience smaller reductions, which could help retain capital in mainland China [4][5]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The interest rate cuts by the Fed are seen as beneficial for the Chinese stock market, real estate, and overall economy, with a more significant impact expected on Hong Kong's markets due to larger rate cuts [5]. - The dollar's rate cut cycle is likely to outpace that of the yuan, leading to a gradual appreciation of the yuan against the dollar, contingent on successful trade negotiations [5].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has decisively lowered interest rates by 25 basis points and indicated a gradual approach to further reductions for the remainder of the year [2] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized a "meeting-by-meeting, flexible decision-making" principle regarding future interest rate directions [2] - The recent rate cut is the first of the year, following three cuts in 2024, and is seen as a risk management measure, leading to profit-taking behavior in the market [2] Group 2 - The current low interest rate environment enhances the investment value of gold, as it significantly reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [2] - Gold prices have increased by 39% this year, reflecting its traditional role as a safe-haven asset [2] - Deutsche Bank has raised its gold price forecast for next year from $3,700 to $4,000 per ounce based on market trends [2] Group 3 - Following the interest rate cut, gold prices rebounded from a low of $3,650 to the $3,707 range, indicating potential for rapid increases due to remaining rate cut space [3] - The trading range of $3,650 to $3,707 is identified as a critical battleground for the latter half of the week, with a breakthrough potentially leading to further gains [3] - Technical indicators suggest that if gold fails to maintain above the $3,685 resistance level, short positions may be considered, with key support at $3,610 [3]

微生活每日资讯3分钟 "碎片时间，阅读当下" NEWS ﹀ 今天是9月18日星期三 墨尔本天气：多云 气温：6-20摄氏度 澳元兑人民币汇率：1:4.72 内容摘要 美联储宣布降息 澳洲时间今天凌晨，美联储主席鲍威尔再次向世界证明了什么叫做： 川普也得靠边站，我依然是那个真真主宰全球金融市场的男人！ 在美联储议息会议后，鲍威尔宣布： 下调美国基准利率25个基点。 虽然25个基点的降幅符合市场的主流预期， 但却是实实在在地甩了高喊降50甚至是降100的川普政府一个耳光。 在这次议息会议上，美联储董事会以11-1的压倒性优势选择只降25个基点。 唯一的那个例外，正是被川普从白宫临时塞进美联储的麦克·米兰，但看来是没什么卵用。 鲍威尔甚至还意有所指的表示——降50个基点压根不在考虑范围内。 但他随后又话锋一转，开始放鸽： 表示美国的就业市场的确没有之前看起来那么坚实了，暗示/明示接下来还有降息的空间。 目前市场最新预测至年底前，美联储还会降息2次。 老鲍的这一番秀操作，也是让美股和全球汇市经历了一轮剧烈的上蹿下跳。 澳元汇率结束了近期的连涨势头，遭遇了一次急跌。 1. 川普靠边，美联储今年首降息 2. 目标游客，州 ...