避险资产疯狂"吸金"：黄金多头离历史新高还差几步？技术面透露信号。点击阅读。 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

全球贸易战的潜在后果引发了市场的担忧，投资者对避险资产的需求增加。黄金作为一种传统的避险资 产，其需求在市场不确定性增加时往往会显著上升。特朗普对海外生产的电影征收100%的关税，进一 步加剧了市场的不确定性，推动了黄金的避险需求。 周二（北京时间5月6日），现货黄金交投于3332.10美元附近，周一金价上涨超过2%，受美元走软和避 险需求推动。市场正在等待美联储本周晚些时候的政策决定，同时关注贸易局势的最新发展。现货金上 涨2.3%，至每盎司3315.09美元；美国期金收涨2.4%，报3322.3美元。美国总统特朗普宣布对海外生产 的电影征收100%的关税，再次引发了对全球贸易战潜在后果的担忧。交易员们在等待美联储主席鲍威 尔将于周三发表的评论，以获得有关利率路径的线索。 黄金价格上涨的驱动因素 美元走软 美元的走软是推动黄金价格上涨的重要因素之一。美元作为全球主要储备货币，其汇率的波动对黄金价 格有着显著影响。美元走软使得黄金对持有其他货币的投资者来说更具吸引力，从而推动了黄金价格的 上涨。 避险需求增加 黄金市场的避险需求与政策预期 ETO外汇认为黄金市场的上涨反映了美元走软和避险需求的增加。尽管市场普 ...

2025年以来，黄金价格呈现出强劲的上涨态势，年初至今累计涨幅已超过26%。4月11日，现货黄金价格创下3245美元/盎司的历史新高。4月21日，内外盘 现货黄金价格再次跳涨，上海黄金交易所的"万足金（Au99.99）"跃升至803元/克。截至5月6日，现货黄金价格涨超70美元，报每盎司3315美元。这种持续 的上涨趋势不仅反映了市场对黄金的强烈需求，也显示出黄金在当前复杂经济环境中的独特价值。 从季度表现来看，2025年第一季度，全球黄金总需求达到1206吨，创下2016年以来最强劲的第一季度需求纪录。其中，黄金ETF的持仓增长显著，2025年以 来已增长超过6%，总规模达到2023年9月以来的最高水平。这种强劲的需求增长为黄金价格的上涨提供了有力支撑。 昨天（5月5日），高盛重申了其对黄金的"结构性看涨"观点，预计2025年底黄金价格将达到每盎司3700美元，并在2026年中期进一步升至4000美元。高盛的 这一预测基于对全球经济形势、地缘政治风险以及央行购金需求的综合分析。该机构认为，当前的市场环境为黄金价格的持续上涨提供了坚实的基础，而极 端风险情境下，黄金价格甚至可能在2025年底升至4500美元。 ...

| 品种名称 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 784.36 | 799.56 | 783.50 | 元/克 | | 沪银主力 | 8156.00 | 8280.00 | 8155.00 | 元/千克 | | COMEX黄金 | 3345.70 | 3395.00 | 3332.10 | 美元/盎司 | | COMEX白银 | 32.70 | 33.37 | 32.63 | 美元/盎司 | 【消息面】 摘要5月6日，国内贵金属期货涨跌不一，截止目前，沪金主力报价为794.80元/克，涨幅1.39%，沪银主 力报价为8235.00元/千克，跌幅0.04%；国际贵金属期货则全线上涨，COMEX黄金报价3376.30美元/盎 司，涨幅0.98%，COMEX白银报价33.29美元/盎司，涨幅1.88%。 5月6日，国内贵金属期货涨跌不一，截止目前，沪金主力报价为794.80元/克，涨幅1.39%，沪银主力报 价为8235.00元/千克，跌幅0.04%；国际贵金属期货则全线上涨，COMEX黄金报价3376.30美元/盎司， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising interest in gold and Bitcoin as potential "new safe-haven assets" amid expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, prompting investors to consider which asset may be more favorable for risk management [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cuts and Market Reactions - The expectation of interest rate cuts has triggered a chain reaction in global capital markets, with a consensus forming around the logic of "preventive rate cuts" due to various instability factors [3]. - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with interest payments consuming a historically high proportion of fiscal revenue, leading to concerns about long-term inflation despite short-term relief from rate cuts [4]. - The yield curve for U.S. Treasury bonds has inverted, with the 10-year bond yield dropping below 4%, prompting a shift of funds from dollar assets to safe-haven assets like gold and yen [4]. Group 2: Gold as a Safe-Haven Asset - Gold has demonstrated resilience during market turmoil, with COMEX gold prices reaching a historical high of over $2,500 per ounce in March 2025, and currently trading at $3,393.4 per ounce [4][6]. - The demand for gold is supported by its historical role as a value store during crises, with a notable increase in gold ETF holdings during the 2024 Israel-Palestine conflict [6]. - Central banks globally have increased their gold purchases, with a net purchase of 1,136 tons in 2024, and China has been increasing its gold reserves for 16 consecutive months [6]. Group 3: Bitcoin's Position and Challenges - Bitcoin has shown a dual nature in 2025, being included in some institutional portfolios while still facing regulatory scrutiny and volatility [11]. - Despite a temporary price surge due to a halving event in April 2024, Bitcoin's correlation with risk assets remains high, as evidenced by an 18% drop during the 2024 U.S. stock market crash [12]. - Bitcoin's market capitalization is significantly lower than gold's, at $1.2 trillion compared to gold's over $13 trillion, limiting its capacity to absorb large-scale safe-haven investments [14]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying logic of both assets rather than chasing trends, suggesting that gold serves as a "ballast" for systemic risk, while Bitcoin is viewed as an "experiment" with high volatility and regulatory uncertainties [15].

Group 1 - The recent surge in spot gold prices has seen it break through the $3,360 per ounce mark, with a slight pullback following the peak, indicating strong market interest in gold as an investment [1][3] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to several factors, including a cooling of interest rate hike expectations in the U.S., a weakening U.S. dollar, and central banks globally accumulating gold as a safety net, which affects supply and demand dynamics positively [3] - The current market sentiment is volatile, and while short-term gains are evident, a cautious approach is advised for long-term investors, suggesting to wait for potential price corrections before making new investments [3] Group 2 - The commentary emphasizes the importance of a long-term investment strategy, likening it to a marathon rather than a sprint, and encourages investors to focus on understanding market fundamentals rather than chasing short-term trends [3] - Future monitoring of global inflation data and geopolitical situations is recommended as these factors are considered significant variables that could impact gold prices [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that despite the volatility in the US stock market in early April, Deutsche Bank's research suggests that many market movements may have been overreacted and are likely to mean revert [1] - Deutsche Bank's May report indicates that the panic regarding the dollar, US consumer data, and overall confidence in US assets may have been excessive, making valuations in certain sectors attractive [1][2] - The current market conditions reflect emotional swings, transitioning from extreme optimism post-2024 US elections to current pessimism, with many growth and policy expectations having completed a full cycle [1] Group 2 - Concerns regarding the decline of the dollar and US consumer stocks have been overstated, as the dollar index has experienced 11 corrections of over 10% since 1990, with a 10% drop so far in 2025 [2] - US consumer stocks have significantly dropped since April 2 due to tariff concerns and worries about US demand, with median declines in US consumer stocks being notably higher than their European counterparts [4] - Despite a low US consumer confidence index, retail sales in the US remain strong, growing above trend levels [6] Group 3 - From a relative valuation perspective, certain cyclical US consumer companies, including apparel and essentials, may begin to show investment appeal, as the valuation premium of the US compared to Europe has significantly decreased in some sectors [8] - During the sell-off in early April, no asset truly acted as a "safe haven," including US 10-year Treasury bonds, which behaved more like bonds from struggling emerging markets [9] - The US credit default swap (CDS) spreads increased by 15 basis points last month, reaching the highest level since concerns over the debt ceiling and Moody's downgrade, now close to levels seen in Greece and Italy [11]

上天天基金APP搜索【777】领 98 元券包 ，黄金基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 金价，卷土重来！ 在调整多日后，金价再度大涨。5月5日，现货黄金及COMEX黄金期货价格涨幅一度超过2.7%。其中，现货 黄金盘中突破3320美元/盎司，日内一度上涨超80美元。 今年以来，金价累计涨幅超过26%。世界黄金协会发布的报告显示，一季度全球金价20次突破历史新高，受此 影响，全球金饰消费总量同比下降21%，为2020年以来的最低点。不过，黄金投资需求大幅增长，一季度全球 黄金投资需求量为551.9吨，同比大增170%。这说明，在金价屡创新高的背景下，全球金饰需求下降，但黄金 作为投资产品的属性更被看好。 3月份，金价首次突破3000美元大关；4月份，金价又多次刷新历史新高。4月22日，现货黄金价格首次突破 3500美元门槛，随后连续多日调整，直至5月5日再度大幅上涨。金价的此轮上涨，是在全球经济增长放缓、关 税不确定性增加和央行购买推动需求上升的背景下发生的。在持续的不确定性中，黄金被视为一种受欢迎 的"避险"资产。 有分析指出，5月5日金价上涨，主要缘于美元走软和避险资金流入。稍早之前，美国总统特朗普宣布 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has experienced significant volatility, with prices soaring from $2500 per ounce in mid-2024 to a peak of $3500 by April 2025, followed by a sharp correction of over 7% within weeks, raising concerns about the sustainability of the bull market [1][4]. Group 1: Market Indicators - The gold-to-silver ratio has reached an extreme of 100:1, significantly above the historical average of 70:1, indicating potential for either a downward adjustment in gold prices or a strong rally in silver prices [3]. - The gold-to-platinum ratio has climbed to 3.5, whereas it typically fluctuates between 1 and 2 over the past 20 years, suggesting that gold may be severely overvalued relative to platinum [3]. Group 2: Drivers of Gold Price Surge - The surge in gold prices from 2022 to 2023 was driven by escalating global geopolitical tensions, leading central banks, including those of China and Poland, to significantly increase their gold reserves, thereby boosting demand [4]. - The announcement of tariffs by the Trump administration heightened trade tensions and market uncertainty, prompting investors to seek gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. - Expectations of the Federal Reserve shifting to a loose monetary policy in 2025 further enhanced gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset, reducing its opportunity cost compared to other investments [4]. Group 3: Changing Market Dynamics - Recent positive signals from the White House regarding trade negotiations have reduced market risk aversion, while a strong rebound in the dollar index has put downward pressure on gold prices [5]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 4.23%, with real yields approaching 2%, diminishing gold's attractiveness as an investment [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Key upcoming events include the decision on whether to reinstate tariffs after the 90-day pause and the timing of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, both of which will significantly influence market sentiment and gold prices [5]. - Despite short-term pressures, analysts maintain a long-term optimistic outlook for gold, citing the U.S. federal debt surpassing $36 trillion and ongoing geopolitical complexities as factors that will continue to support gold's value as a safe-haven asset [5].

涨疯了！黄金行情爆发中 一键布局买入避险资产>>> 现货黄金站上3370美元/盎司，日内涨1.1%。 ...