A股三大指数下跌，截至午间收盘，沪指跌0.19%报3952.09点，深证成指涨0.17%，创业板指跌0.15%， 北证50涨0.08%。全市场成交额14648亿元，较上日成交额放量2529亿元，超3900股下跌。盘面上，海 南自贸港封关首周进口"零关税"享惠货物超4亿元，海南板块全线上涨；地缘局势叠加降息预期助推金 银创新高，黄金及其他有色金属板块走强；电池、锂矿、光伏设备板块涨幅居前。造纸、CPO、白酒板 块走低。 ...

期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（碳市场工业硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 日期 2025 年 12 月 26 日 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 行业 沥青 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to experience high-level consolidation at the end of the year, with a target of reaching $5,000 in the coming year [1][4][6]. Market Analysis - On December 24, gold prices reached a historical high of $4,525.42 but faced profit-taking before the Christmas holiday, leading to expectations of a short-term correction [1]. - The opening of the market on December 25 saw gold prices strengthen due to the recovery of liquidity post-holiday and bullish sentiment driven by interest rate cut expectations [3]. - The dollar index showed signs of recovery but remained under pressure, suggesting limited impact on gold prices in the short term [3]. Future Projections - Predictions indicate that gold prices could rise by 27% in 2024 due to Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with further increases expected in 2025 driven by tariff policy concerns, geopolitical tensions, and ongoing central bank purchases [4][6]. - The average forecast for gold prices in 2026 is between $4,500 and $4,700 per ounce, with a potential high of $5,000 if macroeconomic conditions remain stable [6]. - The fundamental factors supporting gold prices over the past two years are expected to persist and strengthen, contributing to a bullish market outlook for the next year [6]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate a strong rebound in gold prices, dispelling previous bearish patterns and suggesting the potential for a new bull market [8]. - Weekly charts show a strong opening and breakout to new highs, increasing bullish momentum and indicating a target of $4,600 [9]. - Daily charts maintain an upward trend despite some weakening in bullish momentum, with key support levels identified at $4,480 and $4,460 [11].

行业 沥青日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 25 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1： 行情回顾(元/吨) | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌幅% | 成交量（万手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | BU2602 | 2990 | ...

Group 1 - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to geopolitical tensions and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets [4] - The overall trend for gold remains bullish, with a strong upward movement observed, particularly in the lead-up to the Christmas holiday [4][5] - The strategy for trading gold emphasizes waiting for price adjustments before entering long positions, with key support levels identified at 4450 and 4400 [5] Group 2 - Silver prices have also seen significant increases, surpassing the previously predicted high of 70, currently reaching 72.5, with a recommendation to avoid short positions [6] - The outlook for silver remains positive, with a focus on maintaining a bullish trend and looking for buying opportunities on price corrections [6] - The analysis suggests that the support level for silver is around 70, which could provide a potential entry point for short-term trades [6] Group 3 - The oil market is currently testing resistance around 58.5, with the potential for a significant upward movement if it can stabilize above 61 [6] - The trading strategy for oil involves monitoring the market for signs of either a rebound or continued bearish trends, with previous positions held at 55 and 58 being evaluated for future action [6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-24 美国再次扣押油轮扰动原油市场，化⼯ 分化格局延续 国际原油期货近期延续强势，美国打压委内瑞拉原油出口是主要的利 好提振。美国已登检一艘油轮、扣押另一艘，并在委内瑞拉附近追截第三 艘，以此对马杜罗政府施压；特朗普表示，美国将保留从被扣油轮上获得 的原油。俄罗斯原油交付仍不顺畅，印度官员表示，本月俄罗斯原油进口 量将降至日均80万桶。因受到有韧性的消费者与企业支出以及更为稳定的 贸易政策支撑，美国经济在第三季度以两年来的最快速度扩张，增速高达 4.3%，这对所有风险资产都带来提振。 板块逻辑： 化工的分化仍在延续，05合约据当前较长的时限，预期无法证伪。周 二乙二醇期价再创近年新低，因供应压力持续增加。继周度乙二醇开工率 环比上升2%后，华南又有40万吨装置重启，乙二醇开工率将环比再升1. 3%，虽然油制EG生产亏损，陆续开车重启表明企业的停车积极性并不大， 叠加周初港口库存再度攀升，EG持续走弱。价格新低后我们依旧未看到产 业链有明显的利好。于此类似也有聚烯烃，PP和和PE近几日的基差仍在持 续走弱，生产企业于 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has surpassed the $4,500 mark, with a cumulative increase of over 70% since 2025, outperforming most global assets. The sustainability of this bullish trend in gold as 2026 approaches is questioned [2]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - The current gold bull market is not limited to 2025, having started its upward cycle in 2016. Prior to 2025, gold prices rose for two consecutive years, with increases of 13.45% in 2023 and 27.39% in 2024 [2]. - In 2025, gold prices accelerated, breaking through significant thresholds of $3,000, $3,500, $4,000, and $4,500 within a year, marking the highest annual increase in years [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Geopolitical tensions have heightened safe-haven demand for gold, significantly contributing to rising prices. The expectation of increasing global inflation, alongside the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, has positioned gold as a primary beneficiary [3]. - Central banks globally have been increasing their gold reserves, with China's central bank adding gold for 13 consecutive months. As of late November, China's gold reserves stood at approximately 74.12 million ounces, reflecting both asset allocation needs and strategic significance [4]. Group 3: Changes in Global Asset Allocation - The ongoing increase in gold holdings by major central banks indicates a profound shift in global asset allocation structures. As of the second quarter of 2025, the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves was about 56.32%, continuing a downward trend, while gold's share was approximately 24% and on the rise [5]. - The decline in the dollar's dominance in foreign exchange reserves suggests a potential shift in the global monetary landscape, with the credibility of the dollar's credit system facing significant challenges [5][6]. Group 4: Strategic Importance of Gold - Gold's strategic influence is notably increasing, underpinning the current bull market. The weakening of the dollar's credit system is a key factor driving gold's enhanced international status [7]. - Historical patterns indicate that gold bull markets typically last around ten years. The current bull market, which began in 2016, will reach a critical juncture in 2026, raising questions about whether it will mark a turning point [7].

原以为圣诞节前期的市场会比较寂静，但周一的开盘表现直接让市场惊掉下巴，在地缘局势得影响下，周一黄金出现了单边的大涨空间，从4336到目前最高 4485，单日单边走出超150美金力度，再一次刷新了单日的上涨幅度。其实，山海一直强调，今年绝对是黄金看涨得趋势年，一定要顺势做多，不猜顶，不 做空，而12月得行情截至到目前为止，一直是震荡多头趋势的高位震荡走势，只有在本周开盘，周一才走出有效的单边大涨，所以，多头来的太快，太凶， 很难得跟上，错过了这波多头得力度，很可惜。接下来还是正常的看待现在的市场动态变化，如果是继续上涨就等回踩做多，如果是有见顶信号，再尝试做 空。 地缘局势影响黄金避险再度升温，12月阶段性的震荡结束，接下来的单边力度可能会延续到26年开年。大家可以回顾一下，其实12月22号之前，黄金一直在 多头趋势中走高位震荡，山海之前强调过，注意趋势的突破性，也要注意随时的调整空间，整个12月都比较符合预期。但周一开盘，黄金直接走出大单边， 大力度，一天的上涨一点调整都没有，所以，很难跟上这波突破性的行情。现在黄金新高，可以肯定是顺势做多行情，但又何尝不会在这里恐高呢。距离欧 美圣诞节也来越接近了，按道理市 ...

张尧浠：利好前景持稳、金价突破阻力预打开新牛市空间 上交易日周一(12月22日)：国际黄金强势反弹攀升收阳，如期突破新高以及趋势线阻力压制，这暗示后市的看涨空间进一步打开，将迎接看涨至5000美元 关口甚至更高的预期位置。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4340.19美元/盎司，直接先行录得日内低点4337.64美元，之后则持续反弹回升，欧美盘时段虽有回撤，但只有10美金左右， 幅度较小，趋势仍未上行，且一路延续到盘尾收盘，动力持稳，在触及日内高点4449.01美元，最终收于4443.55美元，日振幅111.37美元，收涨103.36美 元，涨幅2.38%。 其2025年的利好因素，关税担忧，降息预期，地缘局势等等仍然存在，并有进一步扩大的预期；所以，未来一年周期，全球经济仍面临结构性挑战，主要 央行货币政策整体偏宽松，地缘局势长期处于不稳定等等因素的支撑而仍可觊觎触及5000美元关口或更高位置。 总体而言，黄金的未来上涨将依赖于美联储的宽松步伐、地缘风险的演变以及全球经济复苏的速度。如果降息预期兑现，黄金不仅能维持当前涨幅，还可 能开启新一轮牛市。 如果美国经济明显恶化，失业率攀升，而通胀又未能大幅反弹，美联储 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in domestic fuel prices reflects a downward trend in international crude oil prices, leading to a reduction in gasoline and diesel prices in China, which is expected to lower costs for private car owners and logistics companies [3][5][6]. Price Adjustment Details - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a reduction of 170 yuan per ton for gasoline and 165 yuan per ton for diesel, effective from December 22, 2025 [3][5]. - The average price of reference crude oil was reported at $59.00 per barrel, with a change rate of -3.29%, prompting the price reduction [5]. - After this adjustment, the retail price for 92-octane gasoline is expected to be between 6.6 and 6.7 yuan per liter, while diesel prices will range from 6.3 to 6.5 yuan per liter [6]. Impact on Consumers and Logistics - For private car owners, filling a 50L tank of 92-octane gasoline will cost approximately 6.5 yuan less [6]. - For logistics companies operating large trucks, the fuel cost per 100 kilometers will decrease by about 5.6 yuan [6]. International Oil Price Trends - The international crude oil market has shown a downward trend despite geopolitical tensions affecting supply, with concerns over long-term oversupply outweighing short-term risks [7][8]. - The U.S. Energy Information Administration has increased its forecast for U.S. oil production, contributing to a more abundant supply in the market [8]. Future Price Expectations - Analysts have differing views on the next round of price adjustments, with some predicting a potential increase due to geopolitical instability and seasonal demand during the Christmas period [9][10]. - The next price adjustment window is set for January 6, 2026, with expectations of continued low oil prices influencing the likelihood of further reductions [9].