宏观经济点评 2025 年 05 月 15 日 财政对冲下的宽信用兑现 宏观研究团队 ——宏观经济点评 何宁（分析师） 沈美辰（分析师） hening@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 shenmeichen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524110002 事件：4 月社会融资规模增长 1.16 万亿元，预期 1.3 万亿，前值 5.9 万亿；新增人民 币贷款 2800 亿元，预期 7644 亿，前值增加 3.6 万亿。 信贷：企业贷款拖累总量，宽货币落地后的宽信用可期 4 月信贷增加 2800 亿元，同比少增 4500 亿元，信贷总量增长低于季节性。 1、居民中长贷同比多增。居民贷款季节性负增，净偿还规模为 5216 亿元，同比 多减 50 亿元。短贷与中长贷表现分化，按揭贷款保持一定韧性。居民中长贷同 比少减 435 亿元，维持了 3 月的边际转暖态势，但速度小幅减弱。4 月地产销售 增速较 3 月边际回落，居民中长贷的韧性或与基数、提前还贷减缓有关。居民短 贷同比少增 501 亿元，较上月边际走弱，4 月国股行将上调信用消费贷产品利率， 金融机构消费贷降价"内卷"模式已 ...

| 11/11/2 | ■技能采 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年05月14日 | | 贵金属 | ななな | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 贵金属震荡。 美国公布4月0P1年率为2.3%低于预期的2.4%, 为2021年2月以来新低,核心CP12.8%持平于预期 和前值,数据发布后市场反应温和,关税影响尚未体现。近期贸易和地缘谈判降低市场对于美国经济衰退的 押注，情绪切换令金价回吐前期风险溢价。国际金价处于调整过程中，关注3200美元/盎司处支撑有效性。 美国劳工部周二公布的数据显示,4月CPI环比仅上涨0.2%,低于预期的0.3%。市场普遍预期美联储将在9月 恢复降息。值得注意的是,尽管当前通胀压力不大,但未来几个月随着关税效应的显现,通胀可能再度抬 头。这种预期正在促使更多投资者将黄金作为对冲通胀的工具。 黄金面临三 ...

Core Viewpoint - The fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by multiple factors, including investor behavior, inflation data, geopolitical tensions, and the performance of the US dollar [1][10]. Group 1: Investor Behavior - The phenomenon of buying on dips acts as an invisible "safety net" in the gold market, with significant buying interest emerging when prices drop, reflecting investors' strong belief in gold as a "ultimate safe-haven asset" [3]. - After gold prices fell to a low of $3207.30 per ounce, a surge of buying interest quickly entered the market, indicating a robust demand for gold amidst economic uncertainties [3]. Group 2: Inflation Data - The US Labor Department reported a 0.2% month-on-month increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April, which was below the expected 0.3%, providing a boost to gold prices [4]. - The mild inflation report is expected to support the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, enhancing the attractiveness of gold as a hedge against inflation [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical Tensions - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the potential talks between Ukraine and Russia, continue to provide strong support for gold prices [5][6]. - The uncertainty surrounding geopolitical events reinforces the historical wisdom of buying gold during tumultuous times, as investors seek to protect their assets from potential losses [5]. Group 4: US Dollar Performance - The US dollar index fell by 0.8% to 100.98, contrasting with the rise in gold prices, highlighting the negative correlation between the two [7]. - Despite easing trade tensions between the US and China, the dollar remains lower than its level when tariffs were announced, influencing market expectations for Federal Reserve policy and subsequently gold prices [7]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Gold faces three key variables: the progress of US-China trade negotiations, the direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy, and the evolution of global geopolitical risks [8]. - The market is advised to monitor these factors closely, as they will significantly impact risk appetite and demand for gold [8].

"在周末宣布关税休战后，我们看到股市大幅上涨，至少在短期内，这已经消除了近期推动黄金创下新 高的部分避险焦点，"盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管奥勒·汉森表示，"如果跌破3200美元的水平，那么我 们可能会很快测试3165美元。" 全球股市在中美贸易紧张局势缓解的背景下上涨，同时也受到相对温和的美国通胀数据的支持。 据外媒报道，周三，黄金价格下跌，因中美贸易紧张局势缓解，缓解了潜在全球衰退的担忧，提升了投 资者的风险偏好，同时削弱了黄金的避险吸引力。 现货黄金下跌0.4%，报每盎司3233.69美元。上个月，在贸易局势担忧加剧的情况下，黄金价格曾创下 3500.05美元的历史新高。美国黄金期货下跌0.3%，报3238.10美元。 交易员现正等待周四公布的美国生产者价格指数（PPI）数据，以获取有关美联储利率路径的线索，此 前低于预期的4月消费者价格指数数据引发了市场对今年晚些时候可能降息的猜测。 市场预计美联储今年将降息53个基点，最早从9月开始。 尽管黄金传统上被视为对冲通胀的工具，但在低利率环境下，黄金也往往会表现强劲，因为它不产生利 息。 现货白银下跌0.2%，报每盎司32.83美元，铂金上涨0.8%，报995 ...

Group 1 - 华夏基金 announced the opening of its 华夏安泰对冲策略3个月定期开放灵活配置混合基金 for subscription, redemption, and conversion from May 16 to May 22, 2025, with a total scale limit of 2.3 billion yuan [1] - The 华夏安泰对冲策略3个月定开基金 has achieved a cumulative net value growth rate of 23.28% and an annualized return of 4.33% since its establishment in June 2020, ranking first among similar products [1] - The fund's scale has been continuously growing since Q2 2023, reaching 2.304 billion yuan in mid-2024, and has implemented scale control measures since the open period in August 2023 [1] Group 2 - The average return rate for 42 hedge strategy funds in the market as of May 12 is 0.85%, with 80% of products achieving positive returns, and the best-performing funds exceeding a 3% return [2] - The total scale of hedge strategy funds in the market has declined recently, with a total scale of less than 5.5 billion yuan as of Q1 2025, a decrease of nearly 20% compared to the end of last year and over 35% compared to mid-last year [2] - The scale control mechanism implemented by funds is believed to help maintain operational stability and provide a better investment experience for holders [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that both Huaxia Antai and Invesco Great Wall have announced scale control measures for their hedge fund strategies during the open subscription periods, indicating a cautious approach to fund management amid market fluctuations [1][2][5] - Huaxia Antai Hedge Strategy has set a total scale limit of 2.3 billion RMB for its open period from May 16 to May 22, 2025, to protect the interests of existing fund holders [2][5] - Invesco Great Wall's hedge strategy has a scale limit of 3 billion RMB for its upcoming open period from May 9 to May 15, 2025, also employing a "proportional confirmation" principle for subscription applications [5][6] Group 2 - Despite the positive performance of hedge funds this year, with an average return of 0.85% and nearly 80% achieving positive returns, the overall scale of hedge strategy funds has been shrinking since the second half of last year [7][8] - As of the end of the first quarter, the total scale of hedge strategy funds was approximately 5.5 billion RMB, a decrease of nearly 20% from the end of last year and over 35% compared to mid-last year [9] - The market environment has shown resilience, but the performance of hedge funds has been mixed, with smaller, high-growth stocks performing better than high-profit, low-valuation stocks, leading to a general underperformance of quantitative strategies [9]

2025年5月13日，美联储理事威廉姆斯在纽约经济俱乐部发表鹰派讲话，强调「通胀仍高于目标，不排 除推迟降息甚至加息的可能性」，引发加密市场利率敏感型资产剧烈波动。XBIT去中心化交易所平台 凭借跨链利率对冲协议、智能监管预言机网络及机构级流动性池，为贝莱德、富达等资管机构提供实时 利率风险对冲工具，其USDT/美元利率互换合约24小时交易量激增260%，机构用户单日增开对冲头寸 达9.2亿美元。 图片来源：币界网 ETH利率互换交易对，在鹰派言论发布后交易量增长310%，机构用户占比提升至62%。 针对利率波动带来的监管合规需求，XBIT开发的智能监管预言机网络已接入SEC、CFTC等机构的数据 接口，0.2秒内完成交易合规性验证。其分层合规认证体系覆盖三类用户：基础用户通过手机号+人脸识 别解锁基础对冲功能，专业用户提交资产证明后可操作跨链利率合约，机构用户则可通过彭博终端直接 接入XBIT的API接口。2025年Q2币界网数据显示，该系统拦截违规对冲交易1.1万笔，涉及资金8,900万 美元，合规准确率达99.7%。 XBIT的跨链流动性池技术成为机构应对利率风险的核心工具。其动态做市算法2.0通过AI ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月12日 宏观经济专题研究 对美出口损失背景下的中国 GDP 增速预测 出口对中国经济的影响权重估计。由于我们提及的中国出口均是货物出口， 不包含服务业贸易，因此我们在估计出口对中国经济的影响权重时主要以实 物产品需求的占比为抓手。 在中国统计局的统计数据中，实物产品需求的统计指标主要包括固定资产投 资完成额、社会消费品零售总额、货物出口。考虑到固定资产投资完成额中 包含土地购买费用，但土地购买费用不计入 GDP，因此在计算实物产品需求 占比时需将固定资产投资完成额中的土地购买费用剔除。 根据测算的结果，2023 年以来，出口在实物总需求中的占比约为 20%，消费 约为 40%，投资约为 40%。考虑到服务业是围绕实物产品流动开展业务活动， 因此出口、消费、投资对服务业的影响权重也可大致分别设定为 20%、40%、 40%。 综上所述，出口对中国经济的影响权重大致约为 20%。 2025 年中国政府通过扩张赤字对冲外部不确定性的幅度估计。2025 年中国 政府广义财政赤字规模较 2024 年增加了 2.4 万亿元，其中 1.3 万亿是正常 情况下保持 5.0%的经济增速所需规模 ...

这次事件之所以不仅仅是台湾一地的现象，是因为海外投资者在美国持有的资产中，仍有很大一部 分并未进行汇率对冲。前述的CIO警告称："对美国资产的过度集中以及汇率对冲不足等结构性问 题，已到了不可忽视的程度"…… 起因是有人猜测台湾方面在美国关税谈判中同意了货币升值。由于抢在美国关税政策实施前出口，台湾 的出口额达到了历史最高水平。市场猜测美方为纠正贸易逆差要求新台币升值，台湾方面同意了这一要 求，这种猜测推动了市场买入新台币。 "那些之前没有进行汇率对冲就买入美国资产的投资者，纷纷开始抛售资产或者进行对冲交易"，一家总 部位于纽约的宏观对冲基金公司的首席投资官（CIO）这样分析道。 然而，对于这次协议达成后过去流出的海外投资者资金重新流回美国的剧本，持怀疑态度的有很多。这 是因为市场仍对"新台币冲击"心有余悸。 新台币在5月2日和5月5日这两个交易日内，对美元上涨了大约10%。据美国彭博社报道，5月5日的涨幅 是37年来最高的。 "由于美国经济增长和投资回报坚挺，过去10年里，（台湾等）海外地区对美国资产的投资一直在不断 扩大"，高盛集团的Isabella Rosenberg表示。这类投资一般会进行汇率对冲，但 ...

Core Insights - Emerging market investment is likened to constructing skyscrapers in geologically active zones, requiring both the harnessing of energy from tectonic movements and the management of seismic risks [2] - Shanghai Zhongguang Yunzhi Investment has developed a three-dimensional analytical framework to deconstruct the risk-return characteristics of emerging markets into quantifiable, hedgeable, and manageable investment elements [2] Risk Assessment - Risk assessment is a prerequisite for investment decisions, with the team creating an emerging market country scorecard that includes 12 core indicators such as political stability, external debt structure, and current account balance [2] - The team quantifies a country's repayment ability using the ratio of sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads to months of foreign exchange reserves, and predicts political risk premiums through election cycles and policy continuity indices [2] - In a specific investment decision regarding a Latin American country, the team identified an inflation rate inversion beyond historical thresholds, combined with rising social unrest indices, leading to a decision to limit allocation to 30% of the benchmark, successfully avoiding subsequent currency crises [2] Asset Allocation - Asset allocation should establish a robust structure, with Shanghai Zhongguang Yunzhi Investment employing a "core-satellite" strategy, focusing core positions on consumption and financial sectors while satellite positions capture cyclical opportunities in technology and resources [2] - The team has developed a unique "moat width" assessment model that considers local advantages, supply chain control, and government relationship resilience in industry selection [2] Liquidity Management - Liquidity management is a critical line of defense in risk control, with emerging markets exhibiting a "dual-track" liquidity characteristic, showing significant price differences between official and offshore markets, as well as between large-cap and small-cap stocks [3] - The team has constructed a liquidity stress testing model to simulate asset liquidity under extreme scenarios such as capital control upgrades and foreign capital withdrawal [3] - During a recent volatility in the Indian stock market, the portfolio utilized a pre-configured liquidity buffer to increase positions in quality assets during market panic, turning the crisis into an opportunity for excess returns [3] Currency Risk Hedging - Currency risk hedging reflects a refined strategy, with the team moving away from a single derivative hedging model to develop a "currency basket + natural hedge" tool [3] - This approach involves configuring a basket of currencies such as USD, EUR, and RMB based on export structures, while also holding stocks of resource-exporting companies to hedge against local currency depreciation [3] - During the Turkish lira crisis, this strategy kept the portfolio's currency risk exposure net below 5%, and the holdings in energy companies benefited from enhanced export competitiveness due to lira depreciation, partially offsetting exchange losses [3] Investment Philosophy - The essence of emerging market investment is a dynamic game of risk and return, with Shanghai Zhongguang Yunzhi Investment's practices demonstrating that systematic evaluation frameworks, structured allocation tools, and refined risk control systems can help investors balance geopolitical changes and economic growth potential [3] - This investment philosophy is characterized by neither blind risk-taking nor excessive caution, but rather achieving optimal solutions for risk premiums and return elasticity through data-driven decision-making [3]